Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
jsf said:
I disagree completely.
It was bats
t mental for someone in his position to start this war.
From what i have noted, the bloke isolated himself for 2 years and lost his mind.
The difference between his utterings when on and off script are huge.
He has 2 billion stashed away. He is in charge. He has a secure powerbase he's feeding generously. He has a secure presence in Ukraine, and has annexed Crimea. He has some problems with regards security, but it is mop-up. It was bats
t mental for someone in his position to start this war.From what i have noted, the bloke isolated himself for 2 years and lost his mind.
The difference between his utterings when on and off script are huge.
He could invent some new role, put himself as head of the world, and let his supporters move in and secure the transition. He could enjoy his ill-gotten, at least for a while. I doubt he'll die in bed from old age, but he stands a chance of a few years wallowing.
But no. He starts a war.
He is risking his supporters who are aware he's getting older and a bit infirm. Money is drying up, but they can't spend it on anything. He cannot stop being in charge as he's fighting his war. Winning is an essential, or at least winning enough for him to spin it as a great victory and the nazies have been eradicated. For that to happen, he needs to all but destroy resistance. I'm all for the occasional risk after balancing, but this is, if not madness, then pretty stupid. He's bet his future on black. Or rather, he's bet on #7, and the odds are long. He's committed, and now the ball is rolling (to continue with the iffy analogy) but he's little control of it.
I think bats
t mental is either spot on or a bit of an understatement. Can he really have believed the army would walk into Ukraine and after a few weeks of turmoil, it'd be laurel leaves? Even I know that no war runs to plan.
His legacy will be an enlarged NATO, and America committed to it. He's shown that he cannot sabre-rattle in case the end falls off. He's exposed Russian military superiority as something of a myth. May Day Parade? May Not Be Real Parade I think. He might well have invigorated China.
Derek Smith said:
...
Can he really have believed the army would walk into Ukraine and after a few weeks of turmoil, it'd be laurel leaves? Even I know that no war runs to plan.
...
Worked perfectly well from the Kremlin's perspective in Georgia back in 2008. Can he really have believed the army would walk into Ukraine and after a few weeks of turmoil, it'd be laurel leaves? Even I know that no war runs to plan.
...
They got additional land, burnished their reputation as the dominant regional power, stymied their neighbours ambition to 'westernise', enhanced the esteem of the Kremlin amongst Russian people and they were even lauded by the French president who brokered the peace deal. All done in less than 2 weeks....
Dog Star said:
myvision said:
Are we due another Russian general soon?
When was the last one?
Well I’m getting concerned that we haven’t been threatened with being flattened by nuclear weapons today. When was the last one?
Boringggggggg!
FourWheelDrift said:
Polly Grigora said:
Was Tony Blair mental?
Was?Is Tony Blair mental?
Best add to this
The invasion of Iraq cost the UK much money and the lives of many British troops were put at risk, don't have the figure for how many died
As we all know, British troops with those from other countries invaded Iraq because Iraq was supposedly known to have weapons of mass destruction
No weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq
Tony Blair should not have sent British troops to Iraq
Was and is Tony Blair mental?
Is Putin mental?
Edited by Polly Grigora on Sunday 15th May 22:23
stongle said:
Are you being serious, or do you watch too much TikTok?
Putin hasn't gone "full bat-st", nor tontomental.
I've never watched TikTok in my life, but I try and keep up with the state of current affairs. You'll remember (or maybe you don't) the unguarded observation back in February from Ben Wallace that opinion within the MoD was that Putin had "gone full Tonto", a position that in essence has led the Finns and Swedes to reassess their security positions and apply to join NATO, given that the previous assumptions about the practical likelihood of being the subject of Russian aggression have been completely erased by Putin's invasion of Ukraine.Putin hasn't gone "full bat-s
t", nor tontomental. Do you think they *shouldn't* apply for NATO membership, that Putin's actions in Ukraine is a stunning and continuing example of rational Russian doctrine and strategic thinking, focused purely on Ukraine and that no other state bordering Russia has no business being worried by it? You might want to give your head a few wobbles.
HM-2 said:
Digga said:
That’s tantamount to pointing out that psychopath serial killers are not necessarily thick. They are still bds.
No, it's not. "Rationality" has a very specific meaning- just because you don't understand the reasoning or logic behind decisions doesn't render them irrational. As I've already said, they seem ridiculous to a Western observer (and are evidently somewhere between fundamentally flawed and completely inappropriate for the combat circumstances) but they're not a manifestation of madness- and treating them as such fails to understand their underlying doctrine. ds.ked the decapitated head of his mother and was both legally sane and internally consistent with his own world view, yet you would be forgiven for thinking him a mad motherfker.I think when talking of Putin and madness you have to consider whether it is mad to invade a country and kill thousands from a lay point of view - is it normal behaviour, or whether you mean sanity in terms of being functionally cogent unrelated to the perception of associated actions. I appreciate the point made here by HM-2, and it's true to have a 'second order theory of mind' it is necessary to apply a rationality to reach an understanding, but from a lay point of view we could, like Hitler, forgive someone calling him mad. We are not, after all, in a clinical or legal setting nor involved in second guessing in reality; we're lay people.
Perhaps that's where people are coming from when they say 'mad'. You're both right, but it's a semantic point really and it depends what you mean by it; whether you are being analytical or just a chap on the Clapham omnibus.
Polly Grigora said:
havoc said:
Polly Grigora said:
FourWheelDrift said:
Polly Grigora said:
Was Tony Blair mental?
Was?Is Tony Blair mental?
, arms outstretched in the Jesus pose, stating his generation may be the first not to go to war.He couldn't wait for the chance, despite a huge backlash from within and outside his cabinet and the general public, who smelled bulls
t.The bloke is a psychopath.
jsf said:
The bloke is a psychopath.
Fortunately absolutely nobody gives a rusty tuppence about what Blair does or says any more, and in the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine he's a complete irrelevance, apart from some randoms on PH who like to bring him up for whataboutism duties.Best to stick to the matter in hand.
eharding said:
stongle said:
Are you being serious, or do you watch too much TikTok?
Putin hasn't gone "full bat-st", nor tontomental.
I've never watched TikTok in my life, but I try and keep up with the state of current affairs. You'll remember (or maybe you don't) the unguarded observation back in February from Ben Wallace that opinion within the MoD was that Putin had "gone full Tonto", a position that in essence has led the Finns and Swedes to reassess their security positions and apply to join NATO, given that the previous assumptions about the practical likelihood of being the subject of Russian aggression have been completely erased by Putin's invasion of Ukraine.Putin hasn't gone "full bat-s
t", nor tontomental. Do you think they *shouldn't* apply for NATO membership, that Putin's actions in Ukraine is a stunning and continuing example of rational Russian doctrine and strategic thinking, focused purely on Ukraine and that no other state bordering Russia has no business being worried by it? You might want to give your head a few wobbles.
There's several things - as mentioned is Blair and Bush madmen, given they invaded other countries for no real reason? They lost their reputations as a result, for seemingly little benefit, and left a mess in the countries that were invaded. Afghanistan even has the Taliban back in charge.
Second - we see it with hindsight. Most people were saying before the war that Russia would likely win quickly, but maybe have issues holding it. If they had broken through to Kyiv and got Zelenskyy it would have been very different. Also remember Ukraine had almost no army and didn't do much when Russia invaded in 2014. It worked fine in Georgia. It wasn't an obvious mad move to invade given history, it just turned out to be based on bad intel/assumptions and gone badly wrong (for Russia - thankfully).
He is not mad, or insane or lost his marbles because of Covid. He came into power with the false apartment bombings, a young strong man on the battle field, not an old drunk man dancing on stage. Punters in Russia loved it, he loved it. His Russian language is from the streets, the words he uses has more to do with the Russian version of Lock stock than anything crazy.
He only became good at Judo because, like Joe Rogan he is a small guy. So the idea that this is different to anything else he has done is a misunderstanding of his past. I don't see any change in why he did this, he said years ago that he wanted this and his approval ratings are going great at the moment.
What concerns me is if he dies tomorrow then the guy who replaces him would need to do the same thing he did, act in a powerful way and show strength to get respect. If he is weak then the Russians will see that person as the reason everything is bad.
He only became good at Judo because, like Joe Rogan he is a small guy. So the idea that this is different to anything else he has done is a misunderstanding of his past. I don't see any change in why he did this, he said years ago that he wanted this and his approval ratings are going great at the moment.
What concerns me is if he dies tomorrow then the guy who replaces him would need to do the same thing he did, act in a powerful way and show strength to get respect. If he is weak then the Russians will see that person as the reason everything is bad.
hidetheelephants said:
Art0ir said:
FiF said:
Phosphorous bombs on Azovstal works.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1525768...
Is it actually phosphorous or thermite or some other incendiary?
Regardless this is simply a drawn out execution of the forces still present.
I don't mean to be one of those guys, but these are actually 9M22S incendiary rounds from a GRAD rocket. They don't elicit the same reaction because people aren't as familiar, but in many ways they are much worse than WP. Each rocket carries 180 hexagonal pieces of Magnesium alloy stuffed with pyro materials. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1525768...
Is it actually phosphorous or thermite or some other incendiary?
Regardless this is simply a drawn out execution of the forces still present.
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