Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[cptsideways]

Looks as the gas transits through Ukraine from Russia are being stopped by Ukraine.

Who's the usual recipients?

[Rogue86]

PRTVR said:

This "end of life" of missiles, I really don't think the Ukrainians would care if only 50% worked

They might care if the 50% of it working is the warhead and not the bit that gets it away from the person launching it.

[take-good-care-of-the-forest-dewey]

Rogue86 said:

PRTVR said:

This "end of life" of missiles, I really don't think the Ukrainians would care if only 50% worked

They might care if the 50% of it working is the warhead and not the bit that gets it away from the person launching it.

It's statistical risk though and you'd need the bit that arms the warhead after x flight time to fail in concert.

If I've got a Russian turret tosser bearing down on me, I'd take the risk.

[AlexIT]

cptsideways said:

Looks as the gas transits through Ukraine from Russia are being stopped by Ukraine.

Who's the usual recipients?

Source?

As for the recipients, I would say all of Europe south of Poland...

[pquinn]

HappyMidget said:

British businessman ‘buys warplanes to help Ukraine fight Russia’ https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/british-busin...

What warplanes exactly? If it was that easy it wouldn't need some random Pakistani/Ukrainian with a house in Hampstead to buy them would it?

Finding some planes that still work, are useful and you can get the export license for isn't that easy or the Ukrainians or whoever would have already done it.

Most of the stuff that does seem to be going is whatever old armoured junk the usual slightly iffy dealers can track down and ship; they're hoovering up all sorts of crap, giving it a wipe over and selling it on.

[mondeoman]

pquinn said:

HappyMidget said:

British businessman ‘buys warplanes to help Ukraine fight Russia’ https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/british-busin...

What warplanes exactly? If it was that easy it wouldn't need some random Pakistani/Ukrainian with a house in Hampstead to buy them would it?

Finding some planes that still work, are useful and you can get the export license for isn't that easy or the Ukrainians or whoever would have already done it.

Most of the stuff that does seem to be going is whatever old armoured junk the usual slightly iffy dealers can track down and ship; they're hoovering up all sorts of crap, giving it a wipe over and selling it on.

If you read the article, he's been working with the Ukrainians, and providing the cash, not buying some old st from the local tatters yard and sticking it in an EverGreen container marked FAO Ukraine Air Force, Ukraine"

[Rogue86]

take-good-care-of-the-forest-dewey said:

It's statistical risk though and you'd need the bit that arms the warhead after x flight time to fail in concert.

If I've got a Russian turret tosser bearing down on me, I'd take the risk.

Well the context was specifically in reference to Harpoon missiles which are anti-ship, so they would be useless against a Russian 'turret tosser'. They also engage targets beyond visual range, so you wouldn't have your target bearing down on you.

Most defence systems can detect launch sites, so the risk of launching an ineffective weapon and then receiving incoming fire outweighs the risk of not engaging at all. Weapons platforms like the Harpoon are very complicated which is why they have an 'end of life'.

[Garvin]

Rogue86 said:

PRTVR said:

This "end of life" of missiles, I really don't think the Ukrainians would care if only 50% worked

They might care if the 50% of it working is the warhead and not the bit that gets it away from the person launching it.

Missiles are not binary! They don’t just fall off a cliff in terms of works / doesn’t work. They are like foodstuff that has a best before date after which their performance, usually due to degradation of the pyrotechnics, gradually falls away. There is a point at which they do become somewhat unsafe to use but that it is well after their ‘life’ expiry and they will have been disposed of properly well before this time.

[RizzoTheRat]

There are ground, surface, sub and air launched versions of Harpoon. Can one version (eg a UK surface launched version) be easily tweaked to operate from a different launch system? Taiwan have just bought a truck mounted harpoon system, and google suggests Denmark has one, so presumably there are launch systems available out there, and the possibility for other nations to send missiles that could work with it?

[Garvin]

RizzoTheRat said:

There are ground, surface, sub and air launched versions of Harpoon. Can one version (eg a UK surface launched version) be easily tweaked to operate from a different launch system? Taiwan have just bought a truck mounted harpoon system, and google suggests Denmark has one, so presumably there are launch systems available out there, and the possibility for other nations to send missiles that could work with it?

Yes and no. The missiles themselves can be pretty interchangeable but ship/ground launched variants require a specific launch tube and sub launched variants require a very complex ‘jacket’ with additional propulsion to be launched from a torpedo tube.

[isaldiri]

cptsideways said:

Looks as the gas transits through Ukraine from Russia are being stopped by Ukraine.

Who's the usual recipients?

Are you sure that isn't from last week? Because gas prices for near term delivery in holland are falling fairly hard today so it's not obvious that the above is anything new (apart from Finland who are pretty minor buyers being cut off by the Russians for refusing to do that rouble/eur conversion farce......)

[eharding]

Rogue86 said:

PRTVR said:

This "end of life" of missiles, I really don't think the Ukrainians would care if only 50% worked

They might care if the 50% of it working is the warhead and not the bit that gets it away from the person launching it.

Reminds me of this slightly less than perfect Sea Dart launch.....scroll forward to 2:20....

[TTmonkey]

Everything has a shelf life. But mostly these are manufacturer being overly cautious so that they can then say ‘you need to spend more money to replace those old systems’ rather than actual failure.

Failure rates will go up as things get older. And if it’s protecting a capital asset like a ship, you want a very high guarantee of proper function every time.

Dumb bombs have shelf lives. But people still drop bombs that are 80 years old and they mostly still work, because it matters less if a few fail to be 100% efficient.

Same with ammo. Older ammo needs using because it can cause fails and jams. But you can still sell it to ‘people that matter less’.

[bloomen]

mondeoman said:

If you read the article, he's been working with the Ukrainians, and providing the cash, not buying some old st from the local tatters yard and sticking it in an EverGreen container marked FAO Ukraine Air Force, Ukraine"

I still don't get it.

Ukraine has the money to buy planes all day long. The issue is finding some and someone to sell them to you, and that someone being permitted to sell them to you.

I don't see what this geezer brings to the table that their own government doesn't.

[superlightr]

TTmonkey said:

Same with ammo. Older ammo needs using because it can cause fails and jams. But you can still sell it to ‘people that matter less’.

yes - hopefully the Russians.

[Rogue86]

TTmonkey said:

Dumb bombs have shelf lives. But people still drop bombs that are 80 years old and they mostly still work, because it matters less if a few fail to be 100% efficient.

There is a substantial technological difference between those and a Harpoon missile.

[anonymous-user]

mondeoman said:

If you read the article, he's been working with the Ukrainians, and providing the cash, not buying some old st from the local tatters yard and sticking it in an EverGreen container marked FAO Ukraine Air Force, Ukraine"

[pingu393]

off_again said:

prand said:

I do too, I just thought this one in particular was pretty informal in style (fired instead of relieved of duty or even sacked), plus writing about the general and admiral it almost in a tabloid way. I guess it is written with a specific audience in mind, but I had thought these were intelligence briefings, not for lowest common denominator consumption. Then again they are posted on Twitter and referenced on Radio 1 news, so perhaps that’s the point of them.

There is an art to creating this type of intelligence summary. Having worked in these circles, but not so much on the national defense side, it makes a dramatic difference to make these bulletins usable. Boiling it down to actionable, short and relevant information takes a lot of work, but when its done right, its bloody brilliant!

Credit to the MOD on this - their intelligence has been extremely good over the years (MI5/6) but what they have failed to do is make it consumable. They made a big shift a few years ago and its taken time to get right, but they cracked the code and have a brilliant process to produce this type of thing. Of course, the joke is that Defense minister is typically as dumb as a box of frogs, so needs briefings that are designed for toddlers....



You didnt hear that from me though .....

Very true. After an effective writing course in the MoD, I gave my boss a report. The summary was about five lines, instead of the usual full page. It said things like "I think that..." instead of "It is the considered opinion that..." It was not what he was expecting

[FiF]

isaldiri said:

cptsideways said:

Looks as the gas transits through Ukraine from Russia are being stopped by Ukraine.

Who's the usual recipients?

Are you sure that isn't from last week? Because gas prices for near term delivery in holland are falling fairly hard today so it's not obvious that the above is anything new (apart from Finland who are pretty minor buyers being cut off by the Russians for refusing to do that rouble/eur conversion farce......)

Finland being cut off from Saturday a.m. early hours.

I think the Poland etc cut off was a while back, last month?

[SlimJim16v]

MOTORVATOR said:

SlimJim16v said:

The countries suffering from Russia's blockade of Ukraine should send their navies to protect and escort Ukraine's exports. From what I've read in the articles linked above, the st has already started hitting the fan in poorer countries.

The useless UN should be doing something.

The Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits are closed to all warships other than those returning to base so would require a bit if escalation from Turkey Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova to put anything meaningful Navy wise in there.

Well, Turkey is one of those suffering.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/16/t...