Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[BikeBikeBIke]

Tartan Pixie said:

I think it's too early to say how significant the breakthrough around Popasna is. Strategically it may not mean much in itself but if Russia can exploit the breakthrough and show some success on the battlefield it could change public perception of the war and give Putin the win he needs to mobilise more troops. In the unlikely event Ukraine can counter it they will have frankly pulled off the impossible and go up another notch in global estimation.

Another thing is that Ukraine have now shown that their tactics are weak against light infantry, something that every Russian commander will be taking note of. Ukrainian doctrine is specifically designed to resist a Russian invasion, but now that a Russian commander has innovated their tactics Ukraine needs to innovate in turn.

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Something you see a lot in chess, strategy computer games and tabletop wargaming is three distinct phases to a match. The initial positioning phase where a front line is established, force is met with force and an uneasy equilibrium holds for a short while, at some point one player demonstrates a weakness and the match moves to phase two, the bloodbath. Reserves are committed and whatever was set up in the first phase plays out, players have little ability to change the strategic situation so tactical ability is everything, you have to out fight your opponent. The results of phase two determines phase three where whoever is left with an extra rook, bishop or squad of stormboyz has the advantage. In a long match the three phases can play out multiple times.

I know that games don't = the real world but strategy doesn't change much through the ages. IMO the Popasna breakthrough is that initial break at the end of the first positional phase, the troops are in place, logistics are where they are, each side has limited reserves to commit and it's going to be a bloodbath (<- That unhappy smiley doesn't come close to the pit in my stomach when describing my thoughts)

For all that the Severodonetsk salient looks unimportant on a map the result of this fight is going to determine the rest of the war, not because of any strategic importance but because so many troops are committed (plus reserves likely to be committed) that the balance of power for the next phase is going to be decided in this one salient.

There is frankly zero chance that Ukraine can hold the Severodonetsk salient but if Ukrainian forces can fail gracefully then they can survive and fall back in good order or be surrounded to help others survive, a decision I would not like to take. Meanwhile the Russians will hopefully bleed for every kilometre they gain, that is what I hope for because that is what Ukraine needs to do, win the tactical battle.

Honestly my heart is in my mouth looking at the current map because Ukraine has to play its best chess and the west is not doing enough. Until the numbers of bayraktars and switchblades are equal to the thousands of Russian artillery pieces we are not doing enough.

<><><>

This post was written while wearing a large hat, enough gold braid to make Elton John look restrained and sat in a comfortable chair. Despite such failings I still wish to say... Salva Ukraine!

No quarrel with any of that except to say the lesson of lack of infantry was clear from very early on and the Russians will be very aware of it. Their problem is they just don't have enough, and never did.

If they had it they'd have used it and lost far fewer vehicles.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Saturday 21st May 20:32

[MOTORVATOR]

QuickQuack said:

Those are fair points, it is semantics; it's just that I like getting all the little details absolutely correct down to OCD level. Apologies.

You're right, absolutely no point in a naval force of any kind sitting in Turkish waters, and nothing at all is ever going to be viable without a mine clearing operation - which will have to be carried out at some point. I wonder who'll end up doing that. Maybe we should just drag the Russian Black Sea fleet through the mine fields and see if any stay afloat...

Given the Russians have been trucking the grain out of Ukraine, I wonder how viable it would be to use a similar tactic; move grain to down to ports in Bulgaria and/or Romania via railways and lorries, then use their ports. It would be difficult and dangerous, but not even attempting feels like it would lead to even bigger difficulties and dangers.

I think the best we can hope for is that all the errant ones end up on Russia's coastline.

Taking a step back you have to ask what on earth the IMO is doing by allowing Russia to effectively sterilise Ukraine's sea access while allowing their own to stay open. The seafaring nations should be ashamed of themselves really.

[raftom]

A quite eerie piece, the last day inside Azovstal.

[Ridgemont]

BikeBikeBIke said:

No quarrel with any of that except to say the lesson of lack of infantry was clear from very early on and the Russians will be very aware of it. Their problem is they just don't have enough, and never did.

If they had it they'd have used it and lost far fewer vehicles.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Saturday 21st May 20:32

Indeed. It’s worth reading the details of Grozny (part 1). Initially the Russians went in hard with armour and got absolutely mullered. It’s only once they used the infantry armour mix with essentially infantry scouting and armour targeting once engaged (as the combination is designed to operate) that they made progress but it was a meat grinder.

Russia is not facing hold outs in Grozny. It’s facing a mobilised people with a lot of other moving parts (the south, the Belarusian border etc). They are moving into attrition and hard yards mode. With potentially an army 20-30% smaller than when this stfest commenced. And with materiel being resupplied to Ukraine. It will be interesting to see what happens if and when Ukraine can get countervailing forces into position in Donbas from other areas. It could resemble an extremely messed up wall’s vienetta.

Image from the institute of the study of war kind of alludes to this. You have an hypothetical front line (red and blue dots) but the actual engagement points are several miles forward of that in Izium etc. Madly dynamic situation with POC to secure the right of the map (the entry into Donbas proper) now in contention and what appears to be a holding line from Russia to the west to hold off reinforcement.

Edited as initial photo dropped placenames

Edited by Ridgemont on Saturday 21st May 21:19

Edited by Ridgemont on Saturday 21st May 21:32

[Ridgemont]

And you can see the same around Popasna.

[Ridgemont]

Of course fog of war may render all of the above moot

[saaby93]

Now Mariupol has fallen all those troops can concentrate on the Donbas line

[Ridgemont]

saaby93 said:

Now Mariupol has fallen all those troops can concentrate on the Donbas line

Not sure they can: still holdouts in the steel factory and the 12k odd resources reputedly deployed there won’t be able to redeploy across the entire line. They have to move up from the south and the end of the frontline will be under pressure. I’d imagine the Ukraine central staff are cognisant of that threat.

[vonuber]

saaby93 said:

Now Mariupol has fallen all those troops can concentrate on the Donbas line

There were hardly any there after they had been restricted to the steelworks, the Russians had moved the bulk out ages ago.

I read somewhere that ukraine is closing on 750k enlisted now, vs the 150k tops of the Russians.

[hidetheelephants]

Tartan Pixie said:

For all that the Severodonetsk salient looks unimportant on a map the result of this fight is going to determine the rest of the war, not because of any strategic importance but because so many troops are committed (plus reserves likely to be committed) that the balance of power for the next phase is going to be decided in this one salient.

There is frankly zero chance that Ukraine can hold the Severodonetsk salient but if Ukrainian forces can fail gracefully then they can survive and fall back in good order or be surrounded to help others survive, a decision I would not like to take. Meanwhile the Russians will hopefully bleed for every kilometre they gain, that is what I hope for because that is what Ukraine needs to do, win the tactical battle.

There are good geographical/topographical reasons why once Russia seized Popasna further advances were likely; once you hold high ground it's much easier to fk up anyone below you. Conversely the same is true of advance beyond the low ground commanded by the heights of Popasna; Ukraine holds high ground too and can pound on anyone advancing into the low ground.


Map from this tweet

It's an important fight and as you say is likely to decide whether Ukraine can hold onto the salient, although I am not as pessimistic, not least as they keep trying(and failing) to cross the river to the north, indicating at least that whoever is in charge today reckons they need both pincers to close it off.

Edit to add; I think you are right about this being a schwerpunkt, the russians do seem to be betting the farm on this with all available units. It's not obvious the opposite applies, but that may just be ukrainian operational security being a lot better than russian.

Edited by hidetheelephants on Sunday 22 May 00:17

[Ridgemont]

hidetheelephants said:

There are good geographical/topographical reasons why once Russia seized Popasna further advances were likely; once you hold high ground it's much easier to fk up anyone below you. Conversely the same is true of advance beyond the low ground commanded by the heights of Popasna; Ukraine holds high ground too and can pound on anyone advancing into the low ground.


Map from this tweet

It's an important fight and as you say is likely to decide whether Ukraine can hold onto the salient, although I am not as pessimistic, not least as they keep trying(and failing) to cross the river to the north, indicating at least that whoever is in charge today reckons they need both pincers to close it off.

I still think that misjudged the situation. Popasna and the other towns have a dual role.
They can operate as a staging point to head east. If you have them you can climb into the Eastern highlands with a decent supply line.
If you don’t control them attempting to take the massively complex highlands in the east is a fools errand.
As a muster post for a western thrust, yes, it’s possible and certainly on strategic minds, but I’d argue the former is currently what’s in play. If the Russians sever off those towns that give a staging post into the highlands then the Donbas is lost. If the Ukranians hold them then Russia will struggle to hold the Donbas.

[Tartan Pixie]

Are you folk Dutch or something?

The next proper barrier is the Kazenyi Torets river. I know I shouldn't expect much from folk who call their ups downs but really these aren't hills.

[hidetheelephants]

Tartan Pixie said:

Are you folk Dutch or something?

The next proper barrier is the Kazenyi Torets river. I know I shouldn't expect much from folk who call their ups downs but really these aren't hills.

Give over, the dutch dream of hills this big; these rival the South Downs in their immensity. Elevation is king, even if it's only 300'; similar elevations are found around Falaise where some germans held up the allies for two weeks a while back.

[Ridgemont]

Tartan Pixie said:

Are you folk Dutch or something?

The next proper barrier is the Kazenyi Torets river. I know I shouldn't expect much from folk who call their ups downs but really these aren't hills.

Take a look at a non flat map.

What you may be seeing.



Reality.



There is no ‘proper barrier’ there. There are highlands, valleys and gorges with a lot of north south lowland which makes traversing west/east difficult as it is restricted to constructed roads. Especially if you follow the main routes which will be mined to buggery.

[Ridgemont]

But as my point above if you are

Russia:
You cut off the towns that lead to the east west highways that penetrate Donetsk. No staging, no way of taking back Donbas.

Ukraine:
You hold those towns allowing you stage raids into Donbas.

The fight right now as far as I can see is to somehow punch through to those towns like Isium before they fall so to prevent the inevitability of the annexation of Donbas. Arguably if the Russians get a quick win here the war is over. Putin will declare mission accomplished and I suspect the Ukranians will know an attempt to dislodge Russia from those towns will be a nightmare.

But hey ho I thought this thing would be over weeks ago.

[Tartan Pixie]

sisu said:

But this is not a game. This is not world of Tanks, it is reality. The Russians have 50% of their military in this area. They have a physical advantage of numbers. But it is the coordination that they lack. We have seen how dependent they are on fuel and if they let them advance and take out fuel tankers, then you get a free tank.

Really want to reply to sisu but have spent hours writing then deleting my posts because I can not put in to words what I want to say and the following is not even close to what I want to say:

Experience of war is not experience of understanding war. I could talk about PTSD and the difficulty of public spaces, a bus, a train station or an ability to recognise people by the parts of them that would be identifiable only after they'd been burned to a crisp.

fk this st.

The importance of gaming scenarios is as important as it's ever been, there's no other way to see the bigger picture when you're stuck on the ground.

When I wargame please understand that I do not come from a position of innocence. I cannot say what I want to say other than that I am very angry, not at Russia, not at the Russian people but at the controlling forces. You want to be a tsar? You die like a Tsar.

<><><>

It's Saturday night / Sunday morning, might have had a dram. Please ignore as appropriate.

[sisu]

Tartan Pixie said:

sisu said:

But this is not a game. This is not world of Tanks, it is reality. The Russians have 50% of their military in this area. They have a physical advantage of numbers. But it is the coordination that they lack. We have seen how dependent they are on fuel and if they let them advance and take out fuel tankers, then you get a free tank.

Really want to reply to sisu but have spent hours writing then deleting my posts because I can not put in to words what I want to say and the following is not even close to what I want to say:

Experience of war is not experience of understanding war. I could talk about PTSD and the difficulty of public spaces, a bus, a train station or an ability to recognise people by the parts of them that would be identifiable only after they'd been burned to a crisp.

fk this st.

The importance of gaming scenarios is as important as it's ever been, there's no other way to see the bigger picture when you're stuck on the ground.

When I wargame please understand that I do not come from a position of innocence. I cannot say what I want to say other than that I am very angry, not at Russia, not at the Russian people but at the controlling forces. You want to be a tsar? You die like a Tsar.

<><><>

It's Saturday night / Sunday morning, might have had a dram. Please ignore as appropriate.

Look, while I get the 30,000ft view idea of gaming applying to this conflict. In much the same way as online gambling gives you scenarios and solutions. The point I was making is that games and online gambling are designed to be logical and built with a structure of making the user achieve something as it is a business.
Someone else has decided the sequence and even with peer to peer, dedicated servers there is a formula to make it profitable.

There is no rest and rehabilitation feature of a wargames of your troops or any mental aspects to deal with as time goes on. In the same way cars don't need servicing, wear out or break down in Forza its a perfect world with imperfections built in.

[Sway]

sisu said:

Look, while I get the 30,000ft view idea of gaming applying to this conflict. In much the same way as online gambling gives you scenarios and solutions. The point I was making is that games and online gambling are designed to be logical and built with a structure of making the user achieve something as it is a business.
Someone else has decided the sequence and even with peer to peer, dedicated servers there is a formula to make it profitable.

There is no rest and rehabilitation feature of a wargames of your troops or any mental aspects to deal with as time goes on. In the same way cars don't need servicing, wear out or break down in Forza its a perfect world with imperfections built in.

I think you're replying to a post making it damned clear Tartan Pixie isn't just talking about wargame experience...

How many wars have you fought in? Cause it's very obvious the answer for TP is 'one or more'.

TP also gets bonus points for including a reference to Stormboyz, although moderate docking of points for implying that Orks operate to any form of tactics.

[FiF]

hidetheelephants said:

Tartan Pixie said:

Are you folk Dutch or something?

The next proper barrier is the Kazenyi Torets river. I know I shouldn't expect much from folk who call their ups downs but really these aren't hills.

Give over, the dutch dream of hills this big; these rival the South Downs in their immensity. Elevation is king, even if it's only 300'; similar elevations are found around Falaise where some germans held up the allies for two weeks a while back.

Correct, no substitute for walking the ground and even after all these years it's educational.

[mondeoman]

I do think we're getting close to a key moment - can the UKR stay east of the Donets river to give them a fighting chance, or are they going to lose Severodonetsk and the rest of the Luhansk Oblast. IIRC they have some of their best troops in that area, are they willing to lose them by encirclement by RU or do they pull out now, sacrifice the ground and go back in hard later, while RU are still stretched.

They reached the border up by Kharkiv, then promptly lost that ground again - was that just a political point scoring op and a ruse to draw troops away from Izium?