Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
sisu said:
...
The Ukrainians now have the equipment and will be compromised by having to advance. But they have a longer range artillery and as long as they can stop the drones of the Russians pin pointing their location they will be taking out the Russians systematically.
I expect they will maintain the heat in Donbas and then over the next few weeks seek to push the Southern flank towards Crimea as the Russians retreat to the natural border of the Deniper River.
At some point they should blow the Kersh Bridge which cuts off the supply to this southern coast. The Russians are then left deciding on reinforcing the southern coast/crimea or Donbas.
Germany and France are not going to be the ones deciding who goes what and where as they have tried the soft option and this has made it worse . Russia might have had traction if they had not committed the Bucha atrocities. They are getting a second chance with the Azov prisoners of war transfer as many will want to say that the Russians are playing by the rules. If they disappear then so will Russian chances of sympathy.
As for this Winter in Europe, that is for each country to resolve.
Are we sure the new US supplied artillery has a significantly longer range than the Russian alternative?The Ukrainians now have the equipment and will be compromised by having to advance. But they have a longer range artillery and as long as they can stop the drones of the Russians pin pointing their location they will be taking out the Russians systematically.
I expect they will maintain the heat in Donbas and then over the next few weeks seek to push the Southern flank towards Crimea as the Russians retreat to the natural border of the Deniper River.
At some point they should blow the Kersh Bridge which cuts off the supply to this southern coast. The Russians are then left deciding on reinforcing the southern coast/crimea or Donbas.
Germany and France are not going to be the ones deciding who goes what and where as they have tried the soft option and this has made it worse . Russia might have had traction if they had not committed the Bucha atrocities. They are getting a second chance with the Azov prisoners of war transfer as many will want to say that the Russians are playing by the rules. If they disappear then so will Russian chances of sympathy.
As for this Winter in Europe, that is for each country to resolve.
I've seen the infographics but I am always a bit sceptical about claims like this. Plus I saw somewhere the US had removed from the electronics, so I wasn't sure if that affected the range (via decreased accuracy).
Personally, I'm not as hopeful as you that the UA will make progress in Donbas. I'm sticking with my original prediction that, whilst there might be a bit of ebb and flow in the margins, broadly speaking we continue will see a summer of stalemate.
I do agree the Russians have a rare opportunity for a public relations win based on how they handle the Azov prisoners. We know their instinct will be to show no mercy, but if they handle it properly and abide by the agreements, it could help to some degree with their reputation.
Putin is not interested or worried about how many troops he loses.
IMHO, the gamechanger is longer range kit which is either aircraft or longer range rockets/missiles (HIMARS). Aircraft need far more in terms of training and logistical support, airfields and the US seemed quite reticent - with HIMARs, they could take the war to the air or naval bases in Crimea and Russia which I presume why US is hesitant re "escalation."
Until this happens, attritional only mainly as Ukraine lack the over the horizon capability.
I do wonder with the lack of recent TB2 videos whether the Russians have somehow manged to developed an effective counter to it.
IMHO, the gamechanger is longer range kit which is either aircraft or longer range rockets/missiles (HIMARS). Aircraft need far more in terms of training and logistical support, airfields and the US seemed quite reticent - with HIMARs, they could take the war to the air or naval bases in Crimea and Russia which I presume why US is hesitant re "escalation."
Until this happens, attritional only mainly as Ukraine lack the over the horizon capability.
I do wonder with the lack of recent TB2 videos whether the Russians have somehow manged to developed an effective counter to it.
Hugo Stiglitz said:
No he wants all of Ukraine and he will get it. It'll cost him tens of thousands of lives but within two years he'll have it.
He won't care a rats ass about the west.
We need to stop applying a western mindset to another culture/political system.
No chance. Russia can't capture and hold all of Ukraine. The numbers don't remotely stack up. At every step Russia's ambitions have reduced. They started with all of Ukraine, then they quit Kiev to focus on the south and Donbas. They're not even trying for a large encirclement in the Donbas at the moment whereas a month ago that seemed the target.He won't care a rats ass about the west.
We need to stop applying a western mindset to another culture/political system.
The problem is Russia totally failing to win isn't the same as Ukraine winning.
Hugo Stiglitz said:
98elise said:
saaby93 said:
Maybe Russia just wants a demarcation zone with nothing in it
They can have that in Russia.He won't care a rats ass about the west.
We need to stop applying a western mindset to another culture/political system.
Almost hillarious, and no doubt utter b
ks.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/22/syri...
"Technicians linked to the Syrian military’s infamous barrel bombs that have wreaked devastation across much of the country have been deployed to Russia to help potentially prepare for a similar campaign in the Ukraine war, European officials believe."
"Barrel bombs" are what a 3rd world military uses when it doesn't have/can't make proper delivery systems. It's like a pre WW2 approach. The Russians would surely have no need for such a thing, unless they'd completely forgotten how to make aircraft. And dumb bombing is not something you could get away with against a force with decent anti-air.
ks.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/22/syri...
"Technicians linked to the Syrian military’s infamous barrel bombs that have wreaked devastation across much of the country have been deployed to Russia to help potentially prepare for a similar campaign in the Ukraine war, European officials believe."
"Barrel bombs" are what a 3rd world military uses when it doesn't have/can't make proper delivery systems. It's like a pre WW2 approach. The Russians would surely have no need for such a thing, unless they'd completely forgotten how to make aircraft. And dumb bombing is not something you could get away with against a force with decent anti-air.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1528347...
Russian-appointed mayor getswelcomed with open arms as a liberator. blown up on his doorstep.
Russian-appointed mayor gets
arguti said:
Putin is not interested or worried about how many troops he loses.
IMHO, the gamechanger is longer range kit which is either aircraft or longer range rockets/missiles (HIMARS). Aircraft need far more in terms of training and logistical support, airfields and the US seemed quite reticent - with HIMARs, they could take the war to the air or naval bases in Crimea and Russia which I presume why US is hesitant re "escalation."
Until this happens, attritional only mainly as Ukraine lack the over the horizon capability.
I do wonder with the lack of recent TB2 videos whether the Russians have somehow manged to developed an effective counter to it.
Long range, precision weapons would make all the difference. HIMARS would be cool, but the older M270 would be more than good enough - 70 km range, precision hits with the right ammunition. They’re not even particularly expensive - about $100K a rocket, and the US will have loads of the old ones in stock that they need to dispose of.IMHO, the gamechanger is longer range kit which is either aircraft or longer range rockets/missiles (HIMARS). Aircraft need far more in terms of training and logistical support, airfields and the US seemed quite reticent - with HIMARs, they could take the war to the air or naval bases in Crimea and Russia which I presume why US is hesitant re "escalation."
Until this happens, attritional only mainly as Ukraine lack the over the horizon capability.
I do wonder with the lack of recent TB2 videos whether the Russians have somehow manged to developed an effective counter to it.
They should have had a counter to the TB2 in the first days of the war. It has similar performance to a Sopwith Camel. It was always amazing that the TB2s took on (and hit) anti air installations that should have been shooting down the TB2 first.
CrutyRammers said:
9 failed attempts to cross that river now being claimed. I wonder how many bridging units they have?
Z-9=the square root of 4 fifths of fkcu all ( one hopes).It continues to surprise me the number of people ( mostly macron & one or two on here, at times, over the last 1000+pages), who remain keen to give away property ( Ukr) they don't own to appease putin. putin is crocodile fodder. He deserves nothing better than the end scene from :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YzsWVUO-_o
Hugo Stiglitz said:
98elise said:
saaby93 said:
Maybe Russia just wants a demarcation zone with nothing in it
They can have that in Russia.He won't care a rats ass about the west.
We need to stop applying a western mindset to another culture/political system.
"Russia of mine—are not you also speeding like a troika which nought can overtake? Is not the road smoking beneath your wheels, and the bridges thundering as you cross them, and everything being left in the rear, and the spectators, struck with the portent, halting to wonder whether you be not a thunderbolt launched from heaven? What does that awe-inspiring progress of yours foretell? What is the unknown force which lies within your mysterious steeds? Surely the winds themselves must abide in their manes, and every vein in their bodies be an ear stretched to catch the celestial message which bids them, with iron-girded breasts, and hooves which barely touch the earth as they gallop, fly forward on a mission of God? Whither, then, are you speeding, O Russia of mine? Whither? Answer me! But no answer comes"
sisu said:
Nikolai Gogol who wrote in 1842, (Ukrainian ironically) about Russian identity crisis. The metaphor for Russian power of the 3 horse Troika was used in the Sochi Olympics, but is also seen as a political hierarchy out of control or out of touch with reality.
"Russia of mine—are not you also speeding like a troika which nought can overtake? Is not the road smoking beneath your wheels, and the bridges thundering as you cross them, and everything being left in the rear, and the spectators, struck with the portent, halting to wonder whether you be not a thunderbolt launched from heaven? What does that awe-inspiring progress of yours foretell? What is the unknown force which lies within your mysterious steeds? Surely the winds themselves must abide in their manes, and every vein in their bodies be an ear stretched to catch the celestial message which bids them, with iron-girded breasts, and hooves which barely touch the earth as they gallop, fly forward on a mission of God? Whither, then, are you speeding, O Russia of mine? Whither? Answer me! But no answer comes"
Thanks Vlad Vexler."Russia of mine—are not you also speeding like a troika which nought can overtake? Is not the road smoking beneath your wheels, and the bridges thundering as you cross them, and everything being left in the rear, and the spectators, struck with the portent, halting to wonder whether you be not a thunderbolt launched from heaven? What does that awe-inspiring progress of yours foretell? What is the unknown force which lies within your mysterious steeds? Surely the winds themselves must abide in their manes, and every vein in their bodies be an ear stretched to catch the celestial message which bids them, with iron-girded breasts, and hooves which barely touch the earth as they gallop, fly forward on a mission of God? Whither, then, are you speeding, O Russia of mine? Whither? Answer me! But no answer comes"
CrutyRammers said:
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1528347...
Russian-appointed mayor getswelcomed with open arms as a liberator. blown up on his doorstep.
Good signal to send - there's a cost to holding Donbas.Russian-appointed mayor gets
sisu said:
Nikolai Gogol who wrote in 1842, (Ukrainian ironically) about Russian identity crisis. The metaphor for Russian power of the 3 horse Troika was used in the Sochi Olympics, but is also seen as a political hierarchy out of control or out of touch with reality.
"Russia of mine—are not you also speeding like a troika which nought can overtake? Is not the road smoking beneath your wheels, and the bridges thundering as you cross them, and everything being left in the rear, and the spectators, struck with the portent, halting to wonder whether you be not a thunderbolt launched from heaven? What does that awe-inspiring progress of yours foretell? What is the unknown force which lies within your mysterious steeds? Surely the winds themselves must abide in their manes, and every vein in their bodies be an ear stretched to catch the celestial message which bids them, with iron-girded breasts, and hooves which barely touch the earth as they gallop, fly forward on a mission of God? Whither, then, are you speeding, O Russia of mine? Whither? Answer me! But no answer comes"
Yup - as discussed here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6UiEXrVrvg"Russia of mine—are not you also speeding like a troika which nought can overtake? Is not the road smoking beneath your wheels, and the bridges thundering as you cross them, and everything being left in the rear, and the spectators, struck with the portent, halting to wonder whether you be not a thunderbolt launched from heaven? What does that awe-inspiring progress of yours foretell? What is the unknown force which lies within your mysterious steeds? Surely the winds themselves must abide in their manes, and every vein in their bodies be an ear stretched to catch the celestial message which bids them, with iron-girded breasts, and hooves which barely touch the earth as they gallop, fly forward on a mission of God? Whither, then, are you speeding, O Russia of mine? Whither? Answer me! But no answer comes"
GlenMH said:
Yup - as discussed here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6UiEXrVrvg
It's a great episode but I still don't understand it. I've enjoyed listening to that about 5 times in the last few weeks and I still couldn't summarise it in a handy sentence.Tartan Pixie said:
digimeistter said:
Thanks for sharing.
Bovington is just up the road from me, definitely worth a visit if you haven't been.
The Tiger is a monster! When they display it, it makes you realise how terrifying it must have been just to hear one coming down the road in WWII
ETA he wasn't cranking the engine, I doubt that's possible for one man but the internal starter.
How does that work? Are you building up some kind of potential energy (a spring?) to crank the starter?Bovington is just up the road from me, definitely worth a visit if you haven't been.
The Tiger is a monster! When they display it, it makes you realise how terrifying it must have been just to hear one coming down the road in WWII
ETA he wasn't cranking the engine, I doubt that's possible for one man but the internal starter.
I've crank started a car before and can only imagine the size of the man needed to do that for a tiger.
Hugo Stiglitz said:
No he wants all of Ukraine and he will get it. It'll cost him tens of thousands of lives but within two years he'll have it.
Laughable. You don't 'have' a country larger than France filled with tens of millions of people who all loathe you who are all armed by the world's richest countries.
He can stick around for long time and do lots of damage in certain areas. To do that Russia will also have to do a great deal of damage to their own people to keep it chugging.
GlenMH said:
sisu said:
Nikolai Gogol who wrote in 1842, (Ukrainian ironically) about Russian identity crisis. The metaphor for Russian power of the 3 horse Troika was used in the Sochi Olympics, but is also seen as a political hierarchy out of control or out of touch with reality.
"Russia of mine—are not you also speeding like a troika which nought can overtake? Is not the road smoking beneath your wheels, and the bridges thundering as you cross them, and everything being left in the rear, and the spectators, struck with the portent, halting to wonder whether you be not a thunderbolt launched from heaven? What does that awe-inspiring progress of yours foretell? What is the unknown force which lies within your mysterious steeds? Surely the winds themselves must abide in their manes, and every vein in their bodies be an ear stretched to catch the celestial message which bids them, with iron-girded breasts, and hooves which barely touch the earth as they gallop, fly forward on a mission of God? Whither, then, are you speeding, O Russia of mine? Whither? Answer me! But no answer comes"
Yup - as discussed here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6UiEXrVrvg"Russia of mine—are not you also speeding like a troika which nought can overtake? Is not the road smoking beneath your wheels, and the bridges thundering as you cross them, and everything being left in the rear, and the spectators, struck with the portent, halting to wonder whether you be not a thunderbolt launched from heaven? What does that awe-inspiring progress of yours foretell? What is the unknown force which lies within your mysterious steeds? Surely the winds themselves must abide in their manes, and every vein in their bodies be an ear stretched to catch the celestial message which bids them, with iron-girded breasts, and hooves which barely touch the earth as they gallop, fly forward on a mission of God? Whither, then, are you speeding, O Russia of mine? Whither? Answer me! But no answer comes"
Gogol was Ukrainian and like many is seen as Russian within Russia but was always looking into Russia from a Ukrainian perspective.
Taras Bubla the Ukrainian Kossack who was fighting the Poles, Turks and Jews.
Register1 said:
Tartan Pixie said:
digimeistter said:
Thanks for sharing.
Bovington is just up the road from me, definitely worth a visit if you haven't been.
The Tiger is a monster! When they display it, it makes you realise how terrifying it must have been just to hear one coming down the road in WWII
ETA he wasn't cranking the engine, I doubt that's possible for one man but the internal starter.
How does that work? Are you building up some kind of potential energy (a spring?) to crank the starter?Bovington is just up the road from me, definitely worth a visit if you haven't been.
The Tiger is a monster! When they display it, it makes you realise how terrifying it must have been just to hear one coming down the road in WWII
ETA he wasn't cranking the engine, I doubt that's possible for one man but the internal starter.
I've crank started a car before and can only imagine the size of the man needed to do that for a tiger.
CrutyRammers said:
Almost hillarious, and no doubt utter bks.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/22/syri...
"Technicians linked to the Syrian military’s infamous barrel bombs that have wreaked devastation across much of the country have been deployed to Russia to help potentially prepare for a similar campaign in the Ukraine war, European officials believe."
"Barrel bombs" are what a 3rd world military uses when it doesn't have/can't make proper delivery systems. It's like a pre WW2 approach. The Russians would surely have no need for such a thing, unless they'd completely forgotten how to make aircraft. And dumb bombing is not something you could get away with against a force with decent anti-air.
Delivered by dropping g from helicopters. ks.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/22/syri...
"Technicians linked to the Syrian military’s infamous barrel bombs that have wreaked devastation across much of the country have been deployed to Russia to help potentially prepare for a similar campaign in the Ukraine war, European officials believe."
"Barrel bombs" are what a 3rd world military uses when it doesn't have/can't make proper delivery systems. It's like a pre WW2 approach. The Russians would surely have no need for such a thing, unless they'd completely forgotten how to make aircraft. And dumb bombing is not something you could get away with against a force with decent anti-air.
There’s going to be lots of volunteers to do that flight.
TTmonkey said:
CrutyRammers said:
Almost hillarious, and no doubt utter bks.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/22/syri...
"Technicians linked to the Syrian military’s infamous barrel bombs that have wreaked devastation across much of the country have been deployed to Russia to help potentially prepare for a similar campaign in the Ukraine war, European officials believe."
"Barrel bombs" are what a 3rd world military uses when it doesn't have/can't make proper delivery systems. It's like a pre WW2 approach. The Russians would surely have no need for such a thing, unless they'd completely forgotten how to make aircraft. And dumb bombing is not something you could get away with against a force with decent anti-air.
Delivered by dropping g from helicopters. ks.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/22/syri...
"Technicians linked to the Syrian military’s infamous barrel bombs that have wreaked devastation across much of the country have been deployed to Russia to help potentially prepare for a similar campaign in the Ukraine war, European officials believe."
"Barrel bombs" are what a 3rd world military uses when it doesn't have/can't make proper delivery systems. It's like a pre WW2 approach. The Russians would surely have no need for such a thing, unless they'd completely forgotten how to make aircraft. And dumb bombing is not something you could get away with against a force with decent anti-air.
There’s going to be lots of volunteers to do that flight.
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