Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[BikeBikeBIke]

More hopium. Lots to be positive about.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/15297422477...

[CrutyRammers]

No details yet, but "[russian] Defence ministry says it will open safe corridor to allow foreign ships to leave":

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-ukrain...

Also Olaf Scholz saying all the right things, again. Shame the actions don't appear to match the words.

[BikeBikeBIke]

CrutyRammers said:

No details yet, but "[russian] Defence ministry says it will open safe corridor to allow foreign ships to leave":

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-ukrain...

Thanks for sharing.

Will be interesting to see the detail. Will Odessa be opened? Or are the Russian planning to make Ukranian trucks drive into occupied areas and (presumably) pay Russia for doing so. Is that practical?

Will ships be insurable? Or will the international community underwrite it?

[CrutyRammers]

BikeBikeBIke said:

CrutyRammers said:

No details yet, but "[russian] Defence ministry says it will open safe corridor to allow foreign ships to leave":

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-ukrain...

Thanks for sharing.

Will be interesting to see the detail. Will Odessa be opened? Or are the Russian planning to make Ukranian trucks drive into occupied areas and (presumably) pay Russia for doing so. Is that practical?

Will ships be insurable? Or will the international community underwrite it?

Can't find any other detail, so it may be something new, or may still be the same, but they've ommitted "providing sanctions are relaxed" from the end, or something.

[MOTORVATOR]

CrutyRammers said:

No details yet, but "[russian] Defence ministry says it will open safe corridor to allow foreign ships to leave":

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-ukrain...

Also Olaf Scholz saying all the right things, again. Shame the actions don't appear to match the words.

There is no such thing as a safe corridor provided by Russia. Only external military presence is going to be sufficient for Ukraine to demine it's ports as they are not that stupid.

[CrutyRammers]

MOTORVATOR said:

CrutyRammers said:

No details yet, but "[russian] Defence ministry says it will open safe corridor to allow foreign ships to leave":

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-ukrain...

Also Olaf Scholz saying all the right things, again. Shame the actions don't appear to match the words.

There is no such thing as a safe corridor provided by Russia. Only external military presence is going to be sufficient for Ukraine to demine it's ports as they are not that stupid.

Very good point

[BikeBikeBIke]

CrutyRammers said:

Can't find any other detail, so it may be something new, or may still be the same, but they've ommitted "providing sanctions are relaxed" from the end, or something.

Good point!

[BikeBikeBIke]

MOTORVATOR said:

There is no such thing as a safe corridor provided by Russia. Only external military presence is going to be sufficient for Ukraine to demine it's ports as they are not that stupid.

Maybe. But all the reporting I've seen says that Odessa is safe for now. Russia don't have the resources locally to attack it with or without a marine element.

So maybe Ukraine could be convinced to open Odessa? Perhaps the question is do Ukraine have a mechanism to re-mine it if things change - if not I'd guess that would (quite reasonably) be a deal breaker.

[superlightr]

BikeBikeBIke said:

MOTORVATOR said:

There is no such thing as a safe corridor provided by Russia. Only external military presence is going to be sufficient for Ukraine to demine it's ports as they are not that stupid.

Maybe. But all the reporting I've seen says that Odessa is safe for now. Russia don't have the resources locally to attack it with or without a marine element.

So maybe Ukraine could be convinced to open Odessa? Perhaps the question is do Ukraine have a mechanism to re-mine it if things change - if not I'd guess that would (quite reasonably) be a deal breaker.

I think the issue will be - who wants to risk being crew on these ships?

[dudleybloke]

If Russian ships carrying stolen grain are in international waters they should be captured by any navy friendly to Ukraine.

[MOTORVATOR]

BikeBikeBIke said:

MOTORVATOR said:

There is no such thing as a safe corridor provided by Russia. Only external military presence is going to be sufficient for Ukraine to demine it's ports as they are not that stupid.

Maybe. But all the reporting I've seen says that Odessa is safe for now. Russia don't have the resources locally to attack it with or without a marine element.

So maybe Ukraine could be convinced to open Odessa? Perhaps the question is do Ukraine have a mechanism to re-mine it if things change - if not I'd guess that would (quite reasonably) be a deal breaker.

Seriously?

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3489142-russi...

No Ukranian water is going to be safe for any shipping without a protective force in place.

When Russia state anything it must be taken with a quizzical mind to why they have done that. They wouldn't even be anywhere near Snake Island today if they didn't want to control and blockade Odesa.

[BikeBikeBIke]

dudleybloke said:

If Russian ships carrying stolen grain are in international waters they should be captured by any navy friendly to Ukraine.

Are they even Russian flagged ships? I doubt it. They could be escorted to Africa and the corn handed over to Egypt FOC and the flag state/shipping company compensated.

I'm sure someone with domain knowledge will explain why it's a non-starter but, in my ignorance, I'm loving it.

[BikeBikeBIke]

MOTORVATOR said:

Seriously?

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3489142-russi...

No Ukranian water is going to be safe for any shipping without a protective force in place.

When Russia state anything it must be taken with a quizzical mind to why they have done that. They wouldn't even be anywhere near Snake Island today if they didn't want to control and blockade Odesa.

Why would they lie about this?

(Assuming the original report is true, which is in doubt.)

[Shar2]

BikeBikeBIke said:

Why would they lie about this?

(Assuming the original report is true, which is in doubt.)

Because that is what they do, it's all they know. I wouldn't trust a Russian minister as far as I could throw them.

[saaby93]

BikeBikeBIke said:

MOTORVATOR said:

Seriously?

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3489142-russi...

No Ukranian water is going to be safe for any shipping without a protective force in place.

When Russia state anything it must be taken with a quizzical mind to why they have done that. They wouldn't even be anywhere near Snake Island today if they didn't want to control and blockade Odesa.

Why would they lie about this?

(Assuming the original report is true, which is in doubt.)

what weapons do they have on snake island ?
If we rule out surprise and precision

[MOTORVATOR]

BikeBikeBIke said:

MOTORVATOR said:

Seriously?

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3489142-russi...

No Ukranian water is going to be safe for any shipping without a protective force in place.

When Russia state anything it must be taken with a quizzical mind to why they have done that. They wouldn't even be anywhere near Snake Island today if they didn't want to control and blockade Odesa.

Why would they lie about this?

(Assuming the original report is true, which is in doubt.)

Because they are stating not that they will withdraw completely from the area that they have illegally invaded but trust us we can provide the safe corridor without any need for outside intervention.

They would just walk straight into Odesa once given that sort of opportunity as they really do not give a flying f about your bread bin.

[Arnold Cunningham]

BikeBikeBIke said:

Why would they lie about this?

Because it's what they do. Consistently.

[deckster]

BikeBikeBIke said:

Why would they lie about this?

(Assuming the original report is true, which is in doubt.)

You've been reading and contributing to this thread several times daily for quite some time now.

And you're really, genuinely, asking "why would Russia lie"?!??

[MOTORVATOR]

saaby93 said:

what weapons do they have on snake island ?
If we rule out surprise and precision

More to the point what weapons would the international community have to agree Russia needs both on and around it to maintain this corridor safe from the Nazis desperate to claim back their holiday retreat 30 miles off the Danube delta?

[BikeBikeBIke]

deckster said:

You've been reading and contributing to this thread several times daily for quite some time now.

And you're really, genuinely, asking "why would Russia lie"?!??

Yes. I'm asking why and nobody is giving me a rational answer.

Why would Russia want to set a trap to sink a civilian ship when they can achieve the same thing by refusing to open Odessa and save themselves a missile?