Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
This seems to have been planed for a long time. Newly filed documents against Mannafort show that he was working with a known Russian agent, Kilimnik, to advance “a back door means for Russia to take over eastern Ukraine”
“All that is required to start the process is a very minor ‘wink’ (or slight push) from DT”
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22039718-0...
“All that is required to start the process is a very minor ‘wink’ (or slight push) from DT”
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22039718-0...
fblm said:
vonuber said:
fblm said:
I think so. They are grinding forward every day. Everyone is laughing at the garbage reserves and armour they are bringing up but they will just be used to terrorise any civilian population left behind and free up the better stuff to move forward. As much as I enjoy the "hopinion" pieces saying this is Russia's last push, I think they all ignore the obvious contempt Russia has for even it's own troops. Depressing.
Better stuff? What better stuff?This is such a pervasive line of thought even though its been debunked by far more knowledgeable people than me.
I watched a bit of 'Chernobyl' on channel 5 yesterday. The corruption, incompetence on display was mind blowing. The need to keep up appearances to their own public, at the expense of many avoidable deaths, was simply staggering. I guess the same thinking is on display here - the Russian psyche appears to be rotten to the core
EddieSteadyGo said:
fblm said:
Jhonno said:
Headline from the Telegraph.. Are they set to take the region?
I think so. They are grinding forward every day. Everyone is laughing at the garbage reserves and armour they are bringing up but they will just be used to terrorise any civilian population left behind and free up the better stuff to move forward. As much as I enjoy the "hopinion" pieces saying this is Russia's last push, I think they all ignore the obvious contempt Russia has for even it's own troops. Depressing.To make my point from a couple of weeks ago, when you look at the progress overall in the Donbas, it mostly hasn't changed that much. Plus the weapons from lend-lease haven't really started flowing yet. I'm still expecting a broad stalemate with slow progress (in either direction) over the summer.
Russia has vast reserves of man power. Sadly it'll win in Ukraine eventually.
Hugo Stiglitz said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
fblm said:
Jhonno said:
Headline from the Telegraph.. Are they set to take the region?
I think so. They are grinding forward every day. Everyone is laughing at the garbage reserves and armour they are bringing up but they will just be used to terrorise any civilian population left behind and free up the better stuff to move forward. As much as I enjoy the "hopinion" pieces saying this is Russia's last push, I think they all ignore the obvious contempt Russia has for even it's own troops. Depressing.To make my point from a couple of weeks ago, when you look at the progress overall in the Donbas, it mostly hasn't changed that much. Plus the weapons from lend-lease haven't really started flowing yet. I'm still expecting a broad stalemate with slow progress (in either direction) over the summer.
Russia has vast reserves of man power. Sadly it'll win in Ukraine eventually.
Hugo Stiglitz said:
Russia is pushing forward. Severodonetsk is being flattened.
Russia has vast reserves of man power. Sadly it'll win in Ukraine eventually.
Let's not exaggerate the situation either way. When Ukraine make a bit of progress this thread becomes full of people posting how Russia is being smashed, how the next new weapon will be a "gamechanger" (remember the artillery was supposed to have a much further range etc etc). Now it moves a bit the other way and suddenly all hope is lost and Ukraine is going to lose.Russia has vast reserves of man power. Sadly it'll win in Ukraine eventually.
If you zoom out of the micro-detail the picture looks a lot more static. In my opinion, we are still heading for the same place as we were a few weeks ago, which is some territorial compromise around Luhansk and Donetsk, possibly also including Kherson, and some form of words from Zelesky which Putin can use domestically to justify his aggression. Whether that is fair or not, is a different question. Between that point and now we will have a slow, attritional war with the only question being how many more people die.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Let's not exaggerate the situation either way. When Ukraine make a bit of progress this thread becomes full of people posting how Russia is being smashed, how the next new weapon will be a "gamechanger" (remember the artillery was supposed to have a much further range etc etc). Now it moves a bit the other way and suddenly all hope is lost and Ukraine is going to lose.
Very much this. The 'encirclement' Russia looks potentially able to achieve (But hasn't yet) is about 5pc of the encirclement Russia was aiming at before the Battle of Donbas started. When you look at the geography of the area Russia are capturing a valley where they hold the high ground. The next set of hills are in Ukraine's hands. They can sit up there all day shelling Russians.
We can't deduce anything strategic from minor tactical losses.
I'm not even sure it will affect morale on the ground - retreating to vastly better positions must feel pretty good.
fblm said:
The vast majority of tanks they have in Ukraine appear, from the number destroyed, to be T72 variants which are still made to this day with modern (French) optics. Not all of these will be on the front line, many will be 'holding' occupied ground. The T62's coming are junk and can free up the "better stuff" to move forward. Really not sure which part of that is controversial or has been so knowledgeably debunked?
Ah sorry, I misread what you wrote. I thought you meant by better stuff something like the mythical t14 or even t90s they have been deliberately keeping back since the start to try and prove some point or other.I get what you mean now, and yes they would (should!) Be used in back areas. Knowing this they'll probably actually be flung into the front line.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Let's not exaggerate the situation either way. When Ukraine make a bit of progress this thread becomes full of people posting how Russia is being smashed, how the next new weapon will be a "gamechanger" (remember the artillery was supposed to have a much further range etc etc). Now it moves a bit the other way and suddenly all hope is lost and Ukraine is going to lose.
If you zoom out of the micro-detail the picture looks a lot more static. In my opinion, we are still heading for the same place as we were a few weeks ago, which is some territorial compromise around Luhansk and Donetsk, possibly also including Kherson, and some form of words from Zelesky which Putin can use domestically to justify his aggression. Whether that is fair or not, is a different question. Between that point and now we will have a slow, attritional war with the only question being how many more people die.
Nazi Germany would still be in most of Europe right now with that attitude. It won't be allowed to happen. If you zoom out of the micro-detail the picture looks a lot more static. In my opinion, we are still heading for the same place as we were a few weeks ago, which is some territorial compromise around Luhansk and Donetsk, possibly also including Kherson, and some form of words from Zelesky which Putin can use domestically to justify his aggression. Whether that is fair or not, is a different question. Between that point and now we will have a slow, attritional war with the only question being how many more people die.
BikeBikeBIke said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Let's not exaggerate the situation either way. When Ukraine make a bit of progress this thread becomes full of people posting how Russia is being smashed, how the next new weapon will be a "gamechanger" (remember the artillery was supposed to have a much further range etc etc). Now it moves a bit the other way and suddenly all hope is lost and Ukraine is going to lose.
Very much this. The 'encirclement' Russia looks potentially able to achieve (But hasn't yet) is about 5pc of the encirclement Russia was aiming at before the Battle of Donbas started. When you look at the geography of the area Russia are capturing a valley where they hold the high ground. The next set of hills are in Ukraine's hands. They can sit up there all day shelling Russians.
We can't deduce anything strategic from minor tactical losses.
I'm not even sure it will affect morale on the ground - retreating to vastly better positions must feel pretty good.
He can try the removal of Ukraine nationals to Siberia and keeping the kids in school through summer to move to a Russian curriculum and so on but they have genocidal and war crimes coming against them in the very near future.
Yes he will try the referendum cobblers but again that will not be recognised as it will just be a sham.
The processes of accountability have already started with the UKraine criminal courts. Then there's the trumped up attempts to charge Azov fighters with terrorism. Anyone notice there was no fanfare from them yesterday as they clearly didn't even get the Russian Supreme Court recognition that they wanted? So we have a substantial number of POWs being held within a recognised terrorist state awaiting charges that cannot be laid legally. The grain corridor nonsense is precisely that as they have no business declaring what is and isn't a safe zone in waters that they themselves have said are not theirs to be in in the first place.
They have become the Pariah and there simply is no benefit to anyone to let them off that hook as far as I can see and the pressures against them will just continue to build?
Hugo Stiglitz said:
Russia is pushing forward. Severodonetsk is being flattened.
Russia has vast reserves of man power. Sadly it'll win in Ukraine eventually.
I take the opposite view. As of yesterday the Americans rubber stamped the heavy artillery and 150,000 shells Ukraine asked for.Russia has vast reserves of man power. Sadly it'll win in Ukraine eventually.
It is not going to get better if you are a Russian and even the State TV is questioning the futility of putting a flag on a building in the Donbas. Ukraine are a professional army and they are now getting better equipment and only extended Martial Law for 90 days. That is not something you do if you don't see a finish line.
Russia is rolling out the T-62's and they don't even have toilet paper for the troops. Tiring out your opponent is as devastating as a punch and the Ukrainians know when to bend to allow the Russians to make mistakes. This is it, they don't have China sending help. They only have a finite amount of equipment.
Where do you see Russia in 6 months?
MOTORVATOR said:
There will never be a good reason for Zelensky to compromise with gifting territory. ROW will not recognise the new states or any annexation so Russia is stuck with the problem of defending what is not theirs to take for many years to come.
He can try the removal of Ukraine nationals to Siberia and keeping the kids in school through summer to move to a Russian curriculum and so on but they have genocidal and war crimes coming against them in the very near future.
Yes he will try the referendum cobblers but again that will not be recognised as it will just be a sham.
The processes of accountability have already started with the UKraine criminal courts. Then there's the trumped up attempts to charge Azov fighters with terrorism. Anyone notice there was no fanfare from them yesterday as they clearly didn't even get the Russian Supreme Court recognition that they wanted? So we have a substantial number of POWs being held within a recognised terrorist state awaiting charges that cannot be laid legally. The grain corridor nonsense is precisely that as they have no business declaring what is and isn't a safe zone in waters that they themselves have said are not theirs to be in in the first place.
They have become the Pariah and there simply is no benefit to anyone to let them off that hook as far as I can see and the pressures against them will just continue to build?
Maybe I'm over optimistic but that is exactly my take on this.He can try the removal of Ukraine nationals to Siberia and keeping the kids in school through summer to move to a Russian curriculum and so on but they have genocidal and war crimes coming against them in the very near future.
Yes he will try the referendum cobblers but again that will not be recognised as it will just be a sham.
The processes of accountability have already started with the UKraine criminal courts. Then there's the trumped up attempts to charge Azov fighters with terrorism. Anyone notice there was no fanfare from them yesterday as they clearly didn't even get the Russian Supreme Court recognition that they wanted? So we have a substantial number of POWs being held within a recognised terrorist state awaiting charges that cannot be laid legally. The grain corridor nonsense is precisely that as they have no business declaring what is and isn't a safe zone in waters that they themselves have said are not theirs to be in in the first place.
They have become the Pariah and there simply is no benefit to anyone to let them off that hook as far as I can see and the pressures against them will just continue to build?
The *most* Putin can get out of this is contested territory and spirited insurgencies. That's the problem he was trying to solve by installing a puppet regeme and he failed.
I suspect the willingness to flatten cities is a sign Putin knows there's a strong chance Russia won't be responsible for rebuilding them.
We keep hearing how Germany and France are wavering. Firstly, they are only two votes here and the Eastern European countries are rock solid. (Well, Hungary.) Secondly, I don't really accept they're significantly wavering. America is *not* wavering and they are the biggest player here.
Is it really plausible that Putin can grab a chunk of Ukraine and then join that to Russia and Belarus in some kind of North Korea/East Germany seclusion? Is that possible in the internet age when your borders are as long and fluid as Russia's?
It's a terrible situation but however this ends it won't be a win for Russia by any reasonable definition of win.
Biker 1 said:
I watched a bit of 'Chernobyl' on channel 5 yesterday. The corruption, incompetence on display was mind blowing. The need to keep up appearances to their own public, at the expense of many avoidable deaths, was simply staggering. I guess the same thinking is on display here - the Russian psyche appears to be rotten to the core
Snap. However I watched 3 mile island and it was exactly the same receipt and lies to the public and keeping people there with known radiation flowing out.
Our own Uk lied and kept quiet the Sealfield nuclear disaster too.
It's generally accepted that, militarily, attacking is more dangerous than defending.
I feel there is propaganda about which triggers Putin's ego into believing he can attack successfully, with impunity even. We know he is micromanaging much of what happens. I wonder if this is a case of 'give him enough rope and let him hang himself'?
With the new kit from UA's allies arriving and being put into position, any advance is surely risky?
I feel there is propaganda about which triggers Putin's ego into believing he can attack successfully, with impunity even. We know he is micromanaging much of what happens. I wonder if this is a case of 'give him enough rope and let him hang himself'?
With the new kit from UA's allies arriving and being put into position, any advance is surely risky?
Bright Halo said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
HM-2 said:
And it's already lost, when you consider the actual initial objectives.
+1Or will this become a frozen conflict, perhaps with each side shelling over the border a bit and with Ukraine taking a bite of chunks from time to time and an insurgency running at full pelt. Then Russia give up when Putin dies as they did in Afganistan.
Or would it be a frozen conflict for a few months until Ukraine collected their new weaponry and trained their men on it? Then they could pick some low hanging fruit to retake before the Autumn, at which point it becomes a frozen conflict.
Who knows. Can we really imagine a formal deal acceptable to both sides? Seems unlikely.
One thing is certain. The Battle of Dombas is Russia's last serious offensive for some time unless they mobilize to some degree. Ukraine are choosing the battles from now on.
Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Friday 27th May 09:16
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