Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[CrutyRammers]

The attack on the shopping mall is a massive own goal. It's just caused a huge hardening of attitudes against Russia rather than the fear they presumably hoped it would cause. Digging themselves ever deeper into a North Korean-shaped hole.

[BikeBikeBIke]

Cobnapint said:

He's struggling with Eastern Ukraine. He'll be dead long before Russia's military is up to sniffing around Eastern Europe.

The Chinese must be loving this show. They're watching Russia's economy go to the wall while it's army is pummeled with billions of dollars worth of western funded military equipment.
They're just paying the rope out.

There are some tiny countries who wouldn't even put up a fight. I agree it's unlikely but it's now or never for Putin so who knows. It would make more sense than nukes and a lot of people take the nuclear threat seriously. From the West's POV a massive massive strengthening of NATO is a clear and public strategic loss for Putin as a direct result of his war so worth doing in itself.

Agree re Chinese. Vindicates their non-military approach to Taiwan + hands Russia to them on a plate. ...bit then China is about to fall off a demographic cliff itself.

[MOTORVATOR]

PRTVR said:

Video of mine clearing on the coast from a few weeks ago, the Ukrainians must feel confident that a attack from the sea is less of a possibility now.

Should make a nice target for the AWACS to keep track of. Looking forward to the 'fk you Russian sub' stamp issue.

https://tass.com/defense/1472371

[BikeBikeBIke]

arguti said:

Interesting tweets re the russian re-supply of Snake Island.

https://twitter.com/Cyx_5/status/15415659306098114...

Interesting, good find, thanks.

[TEKNOPUG]

off_again said:

Flanders. said:

vonuber said:

NATO to increase NATO Response Forces to 300k from 40k:

https://news.sky.com/story/nato-to-significantly-i...

That's a sure fire way of stopping Putin trying anything in eastern Europe...hopefully.

There has been a lot of huff and bluster from the Russians about Europe as a whole, but I just cannot see them kicking the hornets nest over. Given they have fundamentally screwed up the planning in advance of the invasion of Ukraine, I dont see that they will even attempt to do anything in the Baltics, Eastern Europe or anywhere else.

Though it is funny to see the increase - a 100% or even 200% increase makes an interesting headline. But jumping to 300k? Yikes. With something like 170,000 committed in Ukraine and an estimated 145,000 injured or killed also - that puts a massive hole in the personal side. 300k counters that rather nicely. Its almost as if that number was selected because it specifically addresses the known commitments and losses in Ukraine?

I think it depends whether Putin feels his position is internally threatened. If so, he might reason that the country will galvanize around him if there is an existential threat to "Russia" and he can provoke NATO to attack (and obviously spin it another way). It would be a crazy last throw of the dice but I can't see him meekly stepping aside. He's already demonstrated that he's willing to sacrifice thousands of Russians in Ukraine. I'd bet he's be willing to sacrifice millions more in another "Patriotic War" if it meant him maintaining power.

[bmwmike]

When clearing mines do they count the bangs and make sure they got them all? I presume when they lay them they make a note of how many and where etc, but clearing them by making them go pop seems fraught with risk too, e.g. If one gets missed or doesnt go off etc.

[BikeBikeBIke]

TEKNOPUG said:

I think it depends whether Putin feels his position is internally threatened. If so, he might reason that the country will galvanize around him if there is an existential threat to "Russia" and he can provoke NATO to attack (and obviously spin it another way). It would be a crazy last throw of the dice but I can't see him meekly stepping aside. He's already demonstrated that he's willing to sacrifice thousands of Russians in Ukraine. I'd bet he's be willing to sacrifice millions more in another "Patriotic War" if it meant him maintaining power.

Agree. I suppose the counter argument would be that the generals might just refuse. I think that's a real risk for him to the point he won't dare tell the army to do something if there's a chance they'll say no.

[PRTVR]

bmwmike said:

When clearing mines do they count the bangs and make sure they got them all? I presume when they lay them they make a note of how many and where etc, but clearing them by making them go pop seems fraught with risk too, e.g. If one gets missed or doesnt go off etc.

Have to agree, don't think I would want to walk along that beach for quite a few years.

[J4CKO]

TEKNOPUG said:

off_again said:

Flanders. said:

vonuber said:

NATO to increase NATO Response Forces to 300k from 40k:

https://news.sky.com/story/nato-to-significantly-i...

That's a sure fire way of stopping Putin trying anything in eastern Europe...hopefully.

There has been a lot of huff and bluster from the Russians about Europe as a whole, but I just cannot see them kicking the hornets nest over. Given they have fundamentally screwed up the planning in advance of the invasion of Ukraine, I dont see that they will even attempt to do anything in the Baltics, Eastern Europe or anywhere else.

Though it is funny to see the increase - a 100% or even 200% increase makes an interesting headline. But jumping to 300k? Yikes. With something like 170,000 committed in Ukraine and an estimated 145,000 injured or killed also - that puts a massive hole in the personal side. 300k counters that rather nicely. Its almost as if that number was selected because it specifically addresses the known commitments and losses in Ukraine?

I think it depends whether Putin feels his position is internally threatened. If so, he might reason that the country will galvanize around him if there is an existential threat to "Russia" and he can provoke NATO to attack (and obviously spin it another way). It would be a crazy last throw of the dice but I can't see him meekly stepping aside. He's already demonstrated that he's willing to sacrifice thousands of Russians in Ukraine. I'd bet he's be willing to sacrifice millions more in another "Patriotic War" if it meant him maintaining power.

I just think Putin is amusing himself, like a global version of seeing how high you can get your wanted level in Grand Theft Auto.

And because its an autocracy they tend to just do whatever he says, he is an old man and reputedly not very well, may as well just crack on as whatever happens he will be dead anyway.

He has got away with what he has done so far, he has pushed his luck externally and controls things internally, he will be wondering if he could get away with mobilisation or a Strategic Nuclear strike, or would that push the rest of Russia, his top brass etc to the point where they say "Enough is enough, bang".

But, I think if he could do it, think he would quite happily start throwing nukes about, but feel like its reticence from maybe getting that pushback from all his generals and underlings not wanting to be nuked themselves and maybe, he is just enjoying this phase and doesnt want to peak to early ? lets see how far I can push NATO and the west, enjoy them squirming.

There doesnt seem to be a rational reason, gaining land and resources, he doesnt give a st, he never gave a st about ordinary Russians so he isnt going to start now.

Seems more like how a cat tortures anything small and furry/feathery despite not needing to as is well tanked up on Go Cat and Whiskas, its just the entertainment value of eviscerating something for fun, watching its terror, hearing its cries, feeling the ultimate power over something else.

[BikeBikeBIke]

PRTVR said:

Have to agree, don't think I would want to walk along that beach for quite a few years.

Surely there's a second step to verify they got everything before they open it to the public?

[arguti]

arguti said:

Interesting tweets re the russian re-supply of Snake Island.

https://twitter.com/Cyx_5/status/15415659306098114...

better analysis of same

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1541689636...

Note the general having to go forward himself.

[EddieSteadyGo]

J4CKO said:

I just think Putin is amusing himself, like a global version of seeing how high you can get your wanted level in Grand Theft Auto.
...

We can deduce from his response to the "blockade" against Kaliningrad, the response to their foreign currency reserves being frozen, and the almost daily threats of nuclear annihilation, he really isn't finding this amusing.

This was supposed to be quick victory over an errant neighbour, which could be used as leverage to keep any other potential miscreants in check. It wasn't supposed to be drawn-out ground war - we know that just be looking at the lack of preparedness for that type of campaign by the Russian forces.

He is hoping that we start to lose focus and so the western alliance splinters - I think that is fairly likely as we get into autumn when looming winter pressures start to become acute. But whilst he can be (fairly) confident in that, he can't be sure what happens to their foreign currency reserves (which could start to be confiscated by that point), and I think he will be nervous about more sanctions against Kaliningrad, could easily be ratcheted up a notch causing a huge political problems, as well as the potential for the West to stir up more problems in other countries like Georgia (as Motovator mentioned a few days ago).

[Munter]

EddieSteadyGo said:

J4CKO said:

I just think Putin is amusing himself, like a global version of seeing how high you can get your wanted level in Grand Theft Auto.
...

We can deduce from his response to the "blockade" against Kaliningrad, the response to their foreign currency reserves being frozen, and the almost daily threats of nuclear annihilation, he really isn't finding this amusing.

This was supposed to be quick victory over an errant neighbour, which could be used as leverage to keep any other potential miscreants in check. It wasn't supposed to be drawn-out ground war - we know that just be looking at the lack of preparedness for that type of campaign by the Russian forces.

He is hoping that we start to lose focus and so the western alliance splinters - I think that is fairly likely as we get into autumn when looming winter pressures start to become acute. But whilst he can be (fairly) confident in that, he can't be sure what happens to their foreign currency reserves (which could start to be confiscated by that point), and I think he will be nervous about more sanctions against Kaliningrad, could easily be ratcheted up a notch causing a huge political problems, as well as the potential for the West to stir up more problems in other countries like Georgia (as Motovator mentioned a few days ago).

I think he's just full of violent rage, because something dared to not bow down before him. It'll be incomprehensible to him that what he want's has not immediately been done. Very much like a toddler throwing a tantrum. That's why he's wasting resources throwing missiles about at non military targets. He's not planning, he's reacting with anger because he's stuck.

[CrutyRammers]

EddieSteadyGo said:

We can deduce from his response to the "blockade" against Kaliningrad, the response to their foreign currency reserves being frozen, and the almost daily threats of nuclear annihilation, he really isn't finding this amusing.

This was supposed to be quick victory over an errant neighbour, which could be used as leverage to keep any other potential miscreants in check. It wasn't supposed to be drawn-out ground war - we know that just be looking at the lack of preparedness for that type of campaign by the Russian forces.

He is hoping that we start to lose focus and so the western alliance splinters - I think that is fairly likely as we get into autumn when looming winter pressures start to become acute. But whilst he can be (fairly) confident in that, he can't be sure what happens to their foreign currency reserves (which could start to be confiscated by that point), and I think he will be nervous about more sanctions against Kaliningrad, could easily be ratcheted up a notch causing a huge political problems, as well as the potential for the West to stir up more problems in other countries like Georgia (as Motovator mentioned a few days ago).

Fairly confident? We'll see. Feels to me that that has indeed been his strategy, but it is falling further and further away from "likely" with each day, each missile attack on a city, each increase in rhetoric and equipment from the west. NATO, the G7 et al have clearly decided that we now have to be all in on this, somewhat belatedly perhaps, but I can't see a complete about-turn happening in a few short months. Particularly if Ukr starts to regain some ground in the autumn.

[EddieSteadyGo]

CrutyRammers said:

Fairly confident? We'll see. Feels to me that that has indeed been his strategy, but it is falling further and further away from "likely" with each day, each missile attack on a city, each increase in rhetoric and equipment from the west. NATO, the G7 et al have clearly decided that we now have to be all in on this, somewhat belatedly perhaps, but I can't see a complete about-turn happening in a few short months. Particularly if Ukr starts to regain some ground in the autumn.

It was only three weeks ago Macron was suggested (quietly) Ukraine should cede terrority to do a deal. It's clear Scholz would be more than happy for the Ukraine problem to go away. Even Stoltenberg was (diplomatically) hinting that Ukraine might have to give up terrority a couple of weeks ago, as Finland did to Russia in WW2.

The Russians already say publicly it is the "Anglo-Saxons" which have the problem with Russia - and it wouldn't take much imo for Biden to change tack, in which case we would too.

And this is the calm period; summer means lower heating consumption, food prices haven't completely filtered down to prices on the shelves, and the effect of strikes, as people demand more pay to keep up with inflation, has barely started.

So I think it is likely the coalition will splinter as we get into autumn. Although that doesn't release the pressure entirely from Russia, as per my previous post.

[bristolracer]

Putin will stop when he has the Donbas.
He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.

[Digga]

EddieSteadyGo said:

It was only three weeks ago Macron was suggested (quietly) Ukraine should cede terrority to do a deal...

Because, despite strutting about the place, playing Billy Big bks, dressing up like Zelensky, playing the internation rescue diplomat, he is quietly stting himself about the state of the French economy. The last thing he needs is an ongoing war, increasing military (NATO) obligations and huge inflation to deal with.

[deckster]

bristolracer said:

Putin will stop when he has the Donbas.

Putin will never "have the Donbas", unless he razes every town and kills every person there (which I admit may well be his strategy).

He can stop the war by withdrawing. He can't stop the war by saying "I'm going to keep this bit", as Ukraine and the rest of world won't let him.

[rigga]

bristolracer said:

Putin will stop when he has the Donbas.
He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.

But Putin's problem is Ukraine won't stop.

[CrutyRammers]

EddieSteadyGo said:

CrutyRammers said:

Fairly confident? We'll see. Feels to me that that has indeed been his strategy, but it is falling further and further away from "likely" with each day, each missile attack on a city, each increase in rhetoric and equipment from the west. NATO, the G7 et al have clearly decided that we now have to be all in on this, somewhat belatedly perhaps, but I can't see a complete about-turn happening in a few short months. Particularly if Ukr starts to regain some ground in the autumn.

It was only three weeks ago Macron was suggested (quietly) Ukraine should cede terrority to do a deal. It's clear Scholz would be more than happy for the Ukraine problem to go away. Even Stoltenberg was (diplomatically) hinting that Ukraine might have to give up terrority a couple of weeks ago, as Finland did to Russia in WW2.

Yes, but that has gone. They reached the crux point, and decided that a united front had to be shown, rather than going down the appeasement route. Now Macron's saying that he wants to see Ukraine take back everything, including Crimea. Schotlz is front and centre saying "whatever it takes, for the long term", and "it's for Ukraine to decide what victory means". It was splintering, certainly, but it's all pulled back together, stronger than it was in the beginning.

EddieSteadyGo said:

The Russians already say publicly it is the "Anglo-Saxons" which have the problem with Russia - and it wouldn't take much imo for Biden to change tack, in which case we would too.

Everything the russians say is a weapon to do us harm, not a reflection of any sort of truth. Best ignored.

EddieSteadyGo said:

So I think it is likely the coalition will splinter as we get into autumn. Although that doesn't release the pressure entirely from Russia, as per my previous post.

I'd agree it is certainly possible, but "likely"? Nah. We'll see.