Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[WelshChris]

Let's say Putin decided to go nuclear - What are the chances of the military refusing to co-operate and facilitate any sort of nuclear attack? - Just how brainwashed are these henchmen?

[EddieSteadyGo]

CrutyRammers said:

I'd agree it is certainly possible, but "likely"? Nah. We'll see.

I suppose the key point is I don't believe any of the G7 politicians have any heart-felt principles regarding Ukraine's sovereignty. If genuine principles were involved, we would have done more when Crimea was illegally annexed, and done far more arming Ukraine beforehand for what was tending towards armed conflict.

I also believe, because their public statements are superficial, they are liable to be changed (or reversed) within a short period of time, depending upon their own interests at the time.

Hence, you see with Macron etc a crux point was reached and now passed, whereas I see their principles ebbing and flowing like the tide. And because we can know food prices will continue to increase and fuel prices will become more acute as we get into autumn, I think it is likely the western coalition will splinter. But, as you say, I don't know for certain, so I agree we will have to wait and see.

[Solocle]

WelshChris said:

Let's say Putin decided to go nuclear - What are the chances of the military refusing to co-operate and facilitate any sort of nuclear attack? - Just how brainwashed are these henchmen?

That is the question, isn't it. Problem is that it has to be coordinated, otherwise the "deserters" get replaced with yes-men, while they get shot at dawn.

And how do you coordinate such a thing when KGB FSB could be hiding behind the bush?

[Hugo Stiglitz]

WelshChris said:

Let's say Putin decided to go nuclear - What are the chances of the military refusing to co-operate and facilitate any sort of nuclear attack? - Just how brainwashed are these henchmen?

My 12yr old son asked why someone can't just get rid of him. I said those who get to position of authority will have a dedicated team watching them, being watched possibly themselves by other members of their team also. The paranoia will be massive I reckon. Plus bugs etc.

Those in charge of the nuclear keys will no doubt be in the same position. They got to that position through being brainwashed to the system and watched and listened to for any deviation from the party message in any of their conversations.

[isaldiri]

Digga said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

It was only three weeks ago Macron was suggested (quietly) Ukraine should cede terrority to do a deal...

Because, despite strutting about the place, playing Billy Big bks, dressing up like Zelensky, playing the internation rescue diplomat, he is quietly stting himself about the state of the French economy. The last thing he needs is an ongoing war, increasing military (NATO) obligations and huge inflation to deal with.

Well, it's not as if Boris Johnson strutting around Kiev (whenever he needs a diversion from domestic pressure that is), playing the international justice warrior isn't equally stting himself about the state of the UK economy where the last thing he also needs is an ongoing war, increasing military obligations and huge inflation to deal with.......

[Pitre]

WelshChris said:

Let's say Putin decided to go nuclear - What are the chances of the military refusing to co-operate and facilitate any sort of nuclear attack? - Just how brainwashed are these henchmen?

I suppose he may have already tried and failed?

[TTmonkey]

isaldiri said:

Well, it's not as if Boris Johnson strutting around Kiev (whenever he needs a diversion from domestic pressure that is), playing the international justice warrior isn't equally stting himself about the state of the UK economy where the last thing he also needs is an ongoing war, increasing military obligations and huge inflation to deal with.......

He can use the war as an excuse for all other issues though. And on the war I think he’s doing far better than any other politician in the U.K. would do.


I don’t rate Boris and didn’t bite for him but I can’t see a better leader amongst the tories or labour currently .

[Register1]

Russia, FFS, hitting supermarkets how pathetic

[souper]

Found this interesting how a St Petersburg large shopping Mall is surviving after a few months, lots of stores that closed are now reopening or sold to china etc.
Life in RUSSIA 4 months AFTER SANCTIONS https://youtu.be/uqJGKbBG2mc?t=839

[TTmonkey]

Boris Johnson names as most popular politician with 90% approval rate (barring Zalenskyy himself).

In Ukraine.

[RichFN2]

rigga said:

bristolracer said:

Putin will stop when he has the Donbas.
He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.

But Putin's problem is Ukraine won't stop.

Exactly, as it stands Russia are unable to fully take the Donbas region and are suffering huge losses. Ukraine now has the ability to hit targets with HIMARS 60km away from the front line that were previously safe. Ukraine has the upper hand with artillery technology, range and power (but not in terms of artillery units), drones and now they can strike multiple targets 60km away with devastating precision.

If Russia continues to suffer the losses they have for the past few days then they will run out of any tank or armoured carrier that is considered modern or half decent by autumn.

The problem is I cant see Putin accepting this and I fear he will become so desperate and resorts to using the much larger missiles they have, and unfortunately the very small chance of the dreaded N word...

[TTmonkey]

RichFN2 said:

rigga said:

bristolracer said:

Putin will stop when he has the Donbas.
He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.

But Putin's problem is Ukraine won't stop.

Exactly, as it stands Russia are unable to fully take the Donbas region and are suffering huge losses. Ukraine now has the ability to hit targets with HIMARS 60km away from the front line that were previously safe. Ukraine has the upper hand with artillery technology, range and power (but not in terms of artillery units), drones and now they can strike multiple targets 60km away with devastating precision.

If Russia continues to suffer the losses they have for the past few days then they will run out of any tank or armoured carrier that is considered modern or half decent by autumn.

The problem is I cant see Putin accepting this and I fear he will become so desperate and resorts to using the much larger missiles they have, and unfortunately the very small chance of the dreaded N word...

What exactly would we do if he dropped a small nuke on an eastern Ukrainian town as a demonstration of his utter craziness?

[deckster]

TTmonkey said:

Boris Johnson names as most popular politician with 90% approval rate (barring Zalenskyy himself).

In Ukraine.

Hold on guys, I've got a plan....

[BikeBikeBIke]

TTmonkey said:

What exactly would we do if he dropped a small nuke on an eastern Ukrainian town as a demonstration of his utter craziness?

We'd use force to kick Russia out of Ukraine.

Anything else and the whole world becomes slaves to Russia overnight.

[BikeBikeBIke]

WelshChris said:

Let's say Putin decided to go nuclear - What are the chances of the military refusing to co-operate and facilitate any sort of nuclear attack?

Close to 100pc.

....but not so close that the civilized world can risk it.

[RichFN2]

TTmonkey said:

RichFN2 said:

rigga said:

bristolracer said:

Putin will stop when he has the Donbas.
He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.

But Putin's problem is Ukraine won't stop.

Exactly, as it stands Russia are unable to fully take the Donbas region and are suffering huge losses. Ukraine now has the ability to hit targets with HIMARS 60km away from the front line that were previously safe. Ukraine has the upper hand with artillery technology, range and power (but not in terms of artillery units), drones and now they can strike multiple targets 60km away with devastating precision.

If Russia continues to suffer the losses they have for the past few days then they will run out of any tank or armoured carrier that is considered modern or half decent by autumn.

The problem is I cant see Putin accepting this and I fear he will become so desperate and resorts to using the much larger missiles they have, and unfortunately the very small chance of the dreaded N word...

What exactly would we do if he dropped a small nuke on an eastern Ukrainian town as a demonstration of his utter craziness?

Personally I suspect it would be seen as crossing the line, and our response would be tough enough that the situation would escalate into a direct conflict between NATO and Russia/Belarus

[Hugo Stiglitz]

Personally I feel nothing would happen as there'd be claims and counter claims if it was truly a small nuke etc.

He won't though as there are pro Russians in the places that he wants to capture.


If he nuked the capital though we'd invade Ukraine with peacekeepers.

[CrutyRammers]

EddieSteadyGo said:

I suppose the key point is I don't believe any of the G7 politicians have any heart-felt principles regarding Ukraine's sovereignty. If genuine principles were involved, we would have done more when Crimea was illegally annexed, and done far more arming Ukraine beforehand for what was tending towards armed conflict.

I sort of agree with that, certainly around principles, but there's something more. In 2014 everyone was scared of Russia as a powerful state, and had been for a long time. Now they see them for what they are, a set of gangsters with a large but poor army which has been fought to a standstill by a supposedly much weaker opponent. Couple that with genuine disgust at what they have done, I think the situation is very much different to what it was then.

EddieSteadyGo said:

I also believe, because their public statements are superficial, they are liable to be changed (or reversed) within a short period of time, depending upon their own interests at the time.

Well, that goes without saying; however there is a limit to what they can do and as their statements now affect public opinion, their options for u turning can become limited. Build the public up to see russia as a barbaric enemy, it's much harder then to say "it's getting a bit expensive, we'll buy their oil again". Much like Boris and Brexit - he went which way he thought the wind was blowing, rather than based on a principle; but once that decision was taken, he couldn't reverse his own course.

[king arthur]

Hugo Stiglitz said:

Personally I feel nothing would happen as there'd be claims and counter claims if it was truly a small nuke etc.

He won't though as there are pro Russians in the places that he wants to capture.

He doesn't give a fk about this. His aim is to flatten Ukraine, Russian speakers or not.

[BikeBikeBIke]

RichFN2 said:

Exactly, as it stands Russia are unable to fully take the Donbas region and are suffering huge losses. Ukraine now has the ability to hit targets with HIMARS 60km away from the front line that were previously safe. Ukraine has the upper hand with artillery technology, range and power (but not in terms of artillery units), drones and now they can strike multiple targets 60km away with devastating precision.

If Russia continues to suffer the losses they have for the past few days then they will run out of any tank or armoured carrier that is considered modern or half decent by autumn.

The problem is I cant see Putin accepting this and I fear he will become so desperate and resorts to using the much larger missiles they have, and unfortunately the very small chance of the dreaded N word...

It is a bit of a weird situation. Putin has land he can't hold at any reasonable cost.

His only hope is the West will cease bankrolling Ukraine, but I just don't see that, the cost of supporting Ukraine is lower than the cost of handing 20pc of Ukraine to Russia.

So how does it end? Does it end?

The idea of negotiation is laughable. Putin won't offer territory so *all* he can offer is a promise not to invade Ukraine any more. (After he's invaded Ukraine twice.) Third time lucky? Ergo Putin has nothing to offer in negotiation.