Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
Apparently Ukr have had 50 TB2 drones delivered so far, having started with 12 I think, and are in the process of buying "dozens more".
https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/154175094...
Where earlier I expressed surprise that there weren't more of this type of larger UAV being used, it looks as if there in fact have been. Which lets them save their manned aircraft a bit.
https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/154175094...
Where earlier I expressed surprise that there weren't more of this type of larger UAV being used, it looks as if there in fact have been. Which lets them save their manned aircraft a bit.
TTmonkey said:
What exactly would we do if he dropped a small nuke on an eastern Ukrainian town as a demonstration of his utter craziness?
Do you set off fireworks on your porch? The wind blows east.Their problem is that once they do that, every target in Russia will be taken out as a precaution. Team America won't want to be next.
Also they have 70% of their equipment next to or in Ukraine at the moment. Thats alot of eggs in that basket and this is just them fighting the orange country not NATO.
TTmonkey said:
Boris Johnson names as most popular politician with 90% approval rate (barring Zalenskyy himself).
In Ukraine.
We joke, but can you imagine the situation if that weasel Corbyn was in charge? There was loads of debate about his approach to the military, as though it was some abstract thing, rather than hard reality. I doubt he’d support the Ukranians, and he’d be railing against the American military industrial complex.In Ukraine.
Solocle said:
faa77 said:
I hope this war causes the Government to increase the size of the Royal Navy. It's criminal how small they have cut it down to.
To be fair the Royal Navy is probably more than a match for the Now, could the Royal Navy go to Russia and sink their fleets? Probably not, again, the home field advantage, AA batteries would basically neutralise our carriers, and reduce it to an artillery slogging match. Oh, and subs.
And then there's the elephant in the room/world politics- China.
WelshChris said:
Let's say Putin decided to go nuclear - What are the chances of the military refusing to co-operate and facilitate any sort of nuclear attack? - Just how brainwashed are these henchmen?
Hopefully not as brainwashed as those 4-5 media presenters we always see.(Have you seen the programme I'm referring to? One guy always dresses like Stalin)
CrutyRammers said:
Well, that goes without saying; however there is a limit to what they can do and as their statements now affect public opinion, their options for u turning can become limited. Build the public up to see russia as a barbaric enemy, it's much harder then to say "it's getting a bit expensive, we'll buy their oil again". Much like Boris and Brexit - he went which way he thought the wind was blowing, rather than based on a principle; but once that decision was taken, he couldn't reverse his own course.
If the primary mechanism to hold them to account is public opinion, then I feel that better fits my point rather than yours. We know public opinion can shift like a weathervane. Once people start to feel the impact of 10% inflation, food prices continuing to increase, public (and private) sector strikes, pending tax increases (corporation tax, national insurance etc) combined with rising interest rates, I think public opinion will quickly shift to worrying about "hard working families" rather than a war in the Donbas.
Too few people have sufficient savings to cushion them from these material changes in the cost of living, and it is going to cause far more pain than we seen so far imho.
ETA : there is also something of a communication quandary - I believe much of the inflation we are seeing now actually relates to the delayed effects of lockdown rather than Putin. Many industries were left to fend for themselves over the last two years - often demand crashed caused by last-minute, knee-jerk rule changes to "protect" people from covid (e.g. aviation etc).
As a result, many businesses contracted their cost base and infrastructure to minimise the hemorrhaging. Now demand is getting back to normal, those industries are expanding their capacity but it now means demand is higher than supply, which of course leads to higher prices and inflation.
Even if the Ukraine war ended tomorrow, I think it is going to take well into next year before we see price inflation abating and prices properly getting back to 'normal'.
Edited by EddieSteadyGo on Tuesday 28th June 14:16
faa77 said:
WelshChris said:
Let's say Putin decided to go nuclear - What are the chances of the military refusing to co-operate and facilitate any sort of nuclear attack? - Just how brainwashed are these henchmen?
Hopefully not as brainwashed as those 4-5 media presenters we always see.(Have you seen the programme I'm referring to? One guy always dresses like Stalin)
sisu said:
faa77 said:
WelshChris said:
Let's say Putin decided to go nuclear - What are the chances of the military refusing to co-operate and facilitate any sort of nuclear attack? - Just how brainwashed are these henchmen?
Hopefully not as brainwashed as those 4-5 media presenters we always see.(Have you seen the programme I'm referring to? One guy always dresses like Stalin)
EddieSteadyGo said:
CrutyRammers said:
Well, that goes without saying; however there is a limit to what they can do and as their statements now affect public opinion, their options for u turning can become limited. Build the public up to see russia as a barbaric enemy, it's much harder then to say "it's getting a bit expensive, we'll buy their oil again". Much like Boris and Brexit - he went which way he thought the wind was blowing, rather than based on a principle; but once that decision was taken, he couldn't reverse his own course.
If the primary mechanism to hold them to account is public opinion, then I feel that better fits my point rather than yours. We know public opinion can shift like a weathervane. Once people start to feel the impact of 10% inflation, food prices continuing to increase, public (and private) sector strikes, pending tax increases (corporation tax, national insurance etc) combined with rising interest rates, I think public opinion will quickly shift to worrying about "hard working families" rather than a war in the Donbas.
Too few people have sufficient savings to cushion them from these material changes in the cost of living, and it is going to cause far more pain than we seen so far imho.
I expect a lot will hinge on whether Ukraine can start to show success. If we now have 6 months of complete stalemate until winter, then you may well be right. If they start to regain some ground, and people see something happening which they can say "well the pain is worth it", then I think I will be. That's if the general public gets as far as relating it to the war even, rather than just blaming "the tories" or something closer to home.
EddieSteadyGo said:
If the primary mechanism to hold them to account is public opinion, then I feel that better fits my point rather than yours.
We know public opinion can shift like a weathervane. Once people start to feel the impact of 10% inflation, food prices continuing to increase, public (and private) sector strikes, pending tax increases (corporation tax, national insurance etc) combined with rising interest rates, I think public opinion will quickly shift to worrying about "hard working families" rather than a war in the Donbas.
Too few people have sufficient savings to cushion them from these material changes in the cost of living, and it is going to cause far more pain than we seen so far imho.
Public opinion can be fickle but handing chunks of Europe to Putin won't make everything cheaper and I strongly doubt anyone thinks it will. The changes to the world economy are not going to reverse, there is only one way forward now and it involves less reliance on Russia and China and that means we pay more for stuff.We know public opinion can shift like a weathervane. Once people start to feel the impact of 10% inflation, food prices continuing to increase, public (and private) sector strikes, pending tax increases (corporation tax, national insurance etc) combined with rising interest rates, I think public opinion will quickly shift to worrying about "hard working families" rather than a war in the Donbas.
Too few people have sufficient savings to cushion them from these material changes in the cost of living, and it is going to cause far more pain than we seen so far imho.
EddieSteadyGo said:
CrutyRammers said:
Fairly confident? We'll see. Feels to me that that has indeed been his strategy, but it is falling further and further away from "likely" with each day, each missile attack on a city, each increase in rhetoric and equipment from the west. NATO, the G7 et al have clearly decided that we now have to be all in on this, somewhat belatedly perhaps, but I can't see a complete about-turn happening in a few short months. Particularly if Ukr starts to regain some ground in the autumn.
It was only three weeks ago Macron was suggested (quietly) Ukraine should cede terrority to do a deal. It's clear Scholz would be more than happy for the Ukraine problem to go away. Even Stoltenberg was (diplomatically) hinting that Ukraine might have to give up terrority a couple of weeks ago, as Finland did to Russia in WW2. The Russians already say publicly it is the "Anglo-Saxons" which have the problem with Russia - and it wouldn't take much imo for Biden to change tack, in which case we would too.
And this is the calm period; summer means lower heating consumption, food prices haven't completely filtered down to prices on the shelves, and the effect of strikes, as people demand more pay to keep up with inflation, has barely started.
So I think it is likely the coalition will splinter as we get into autumn. Although that doesn't release the pressure entirely from Russia, as per my previous post.
If anything the past few weeks has shown the coalition galvanise and even the laggards like Macron / Scholz have made a notable change in attitude. Ultimately its up to Ukraine to make a deal and not to be sold off by Macron / Scholz. They are also just 2 countries in a larger coalition. The others are making no similar statements. At best Macron / Scholz would just alienate themselves with their closest & most trusted allies, and equally also make themselves look pretty stupid in front of their respective electorates.
I know many politicians are self serving and have their own goals, but the chance of the west getting bored and everyone back peddling in the next few months is slim to none. Regardless of economy, energy prices, cost of living.
BikeBikeBIke said:
....but handing chunks of Europe to Putin won't make everything cheaper and I strongly doubt anyone thinks it will ...
See my previous post where I added something about this. The current price rises have been labeled "Putin's tax" i.e. Putin caused them and is responsible. Whilst it might be expedient in the short-term to shift the blame onto Putin, many prices were already rising quickly, long before Ukraine war.
So I think actually many people will (incorrectly) believe, if the war in Ukraine is settled, prices will revert to normal.
rigga said:
bristolracer said:
Putin will stop when he has the Donbas.
He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.
But Putin's problem is Ukraine won't stop.He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.
Once western attention shifts as there are considerably more important domestic issues to attempt to get sorted and the effort/costs are viewed as being greater than forcing an end to the mess in a far away place, Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.
isaldiri said:
They will once the flow of western arms stops because the war is being pretty much fully maintained by that as compared to Ukraine's own military capability
Once western attention shifts as there are considerably more important domestic issues to attempt to get sorted and the effort/costs are viewed as being greater than forcing an end to the mess in a far away place, Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.
Iraq II, Afgan Vietnam.Once western attention shifts as there are considerably more important domestic issues to attempt to get sorted and the effort/costs are viewed as being greater than forcing an end to the mess in a far away place, Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.
Even democracies can keep wars going long after the public turn against them. And I have no sense of the public turning away from this war - there are Ukranian flags everywhere. And this war will cost zero casualties and is very winnable unlike the above.
The West can stick this out longer than Russia. Certainly we can give it 10 years and I doubt Putin has 10 years left in power presiding over a basket case economy.
isaldiri said:
rigga said:
bristolracer said:
Putin will stop when he has the Donbas.
He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.
But Putin's problem is Ukraine won't stop.He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.
Once western attention shifts as there are considerably more important domestic issues to attempt to get sorted and the effort/costs are viewed as being greater than forcing an end to the mess in a far away place, Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.
moustachebandit said:
One outcome from the G7 is that all countries have agreed that a deal is not for consideration. Macron / Scholz have also been told to drop this position. Whilst I am sure every country wants this to go away, unless they are completely stupid they realise that any deal will only be a short term delay to further military action. Russia has shown through history that they cannot be trusted. Its also wishful thinking to assume that the cost of living / inflation / energy prices will fall once Russia has got its way, it wont, there is no quick fix to these problems even in peace time. So why would it be different during war?
If anything the past few weeks has shown the coalition galvanise and even the laggards like Macron / Scholz have made a notable change in attitude. Ultimately its up to Ukraine to make a deal and not to be sold off by Macron / Scholz. They are also just 2 countries in a larger coalition. The others are making no similar statements. At best Macron / Scholz would just alienate themselves with their closest & most trusted allies, and equally also make themselves look pretty stupid in front of their respective electorates.
I know many politicians are self serving and have their own goals, but the chance of the west getting bored and everyone back peddling in the next few months is slim to none. Regardless of economy, energy prices, cost of living.
Yup, Western momentum and the direction of travel is behind Ukraine.If anything the past few weeks has shown the coalition galvanise and even the laggards like Macron / Scholz have made a notable change in attitude. Ultimately its up to Ukraine to make a deal and not to be sold off by Macron / Scholz. They are also just 2 countries in a larger coalition. The others are making no similar statements. At best Macron / Scholz would just alienate themselves with their closest & most trusted allies, and equally also make themselves look pretty stupid in front of their respective electorates.
I know many politicians are self serving and have their own goals, but the chance of the west getting bored and everyone back peddling in the next few months is slim to none. Regardless of economy, energy prices, cost of living.
TEKNOPUG said:
isaldiri said:
rigga said:
bristolracer said:
Putin will stop when he has the Donbas.
He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.
But Putin's problem is Ukraine won't stop.He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.
Once western attention shifts as there are considerably more important domestic issues to attempt to get sorted and the effort/costs are viewed as being greater than forcing an end to the mess in a far away place, Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.
I can't yet see signs the arrangement is running out of steam. Moveover, given the logistic and training lead times for weapons delivery to the front line, what was announced a month or two back is only just getting into the field.
isaldiri said:
rigga said:
bristolracer said:
Putin will stop when he has the Donbas.
He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.
But Putin's problem is Ukraine won't stop.He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.
Once western attention shifts as there are considerably more important domestic issues to attempt to get sorted and the effort/costs are viewed as being greater than forcing an end to the mess in a far away place, Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.
Military equipment is not a big deal, mostly kit that would have never seen action, or nearly end of life anyway.
The economic cost is irrelevant, as the recent inflationary increases won't suddenly reverse if Russia prevail.
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