Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[vonuber]

Cctv footage from nearby park of attack on shopping centre (sfw):

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vmlkto/m...

[JNW1]

isaldiri said:

TEKNOPUG said:

You think that the US will ever stop arming Ukraine? Russia's invasion of Ukraine is the greatest geo-political gift the US could ever hope to have.

Stop arming Ukraine? Probably not.

Stop arming them to the point Ukraine is capable of mounting successful military attacks to retake the Donbas or Crimea...? bit of a different thing as the US is not exactly insensitive to the economic costs and disruptions of the war dragging on and at some point is likely to think they are better off shutting down the whole damned mess sooner than later.

Perhaps - but in my view hanging the Ukraine out to dry isn't the only way of shutting down the mess sooner rather than later. Direct and focused military support from the US and other NATO countries could also bring the conflict to a swift conclusion with (IMO) the added benefit of sending a much better message to Russia (and others) in terms of how unprovoked aggression against a friendly country is likely to be handled....

[Munter]

jsf said:

isaldiri said:

They will once the flow of western arms stops because the war is being pretty much fully maintained by that as compared to Ukraine's own military capability

Once western attention shifts as there are considerably more important domestic issues to attempt to get sorted and the effort/costs are viewed as being greater than forcing an end to the mess in a far away place, Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.

Dream on Vlad.

The biggest current domestic issues are the effects of the Russian war against Ukraine. Putting Russia back inside it's own borders, and weaning europe off Russian energy are the most important things to improve the domestic situation.

[CrutyRammers]

I thought this sort of thing is interesting - I know it's not the first time this sort of thing has happened.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1541756...

People finding the identities of the pilots who launched missiles at the mall (or even just pilots from the same unit) and splashing them across the world. Bombing used to be an impersonal thing, the bomber, safely anonymous, killing people he never saw. Now it's being reversed, and you get to be a target for the rest of your life.

[Digga]

Russia launched this Special Military Comedy Operation from within it's own borders, with a bit of help from Belarus.

So we 'give' Russia Ukraine, then what. Where is the next stage of the Comedy tour? Because that puts them on the doorstep of even more strategically important trade allies, as well as far closer to the centre of the EU.

Not sure what the 'plan' is in that regard. I'd say, arming the UA is our least worst option.

[CrutyRammers]

vonuber said:

Cctv footage from nearby park of attack on shopping centre (sfw):

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vmlkto/m...

'sake

One of the comments: "What's a difference between russia and a terrorist organization? A terrorist organization claims responsibility."

[TTmonkey]

CrutyRammers said:

vonuber said:

Cctv footage from nearby park of attack on shopping centre (sfw):

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vmlkto/m...

'sake

One of the comments: "What's a difference between russia and a terrorist organization? A terrorist organization claims responsibility."

The guy leaping the fence and diving into the lake, had great self preservation instinct.
Unlike the woman and kids that won’t even run across the grassed area and stick to the path.

It’s all a bit surreal.

[off_again]

sisu said:

Medvedev thought he would dress up like Zelenski, grow a beard and is looking like Tsar Nicolas II

Is that a military uniform? And the badges? I hope he's not wearing some sort of uniform and thats just camo for protection.

[off_again]

BikeBikeBIke said:

isaldiri said:

Stop arming Ukraine? Probably not.

Stop arming them to the point Ukraine is capable of mounting successful military attacks to retake the Donbas or Crimea...?

No need to. Insurgency + long range fires can make Ukraine too expensive to hold.

Well in excess of 300 Russian and separatist deaths in the Donbas alone. While not a significant number in the scale of Russian losses, its escalating and now the Ukrainians have resorted to car bombs and IED's indicating an escalation. Read an interesting article the other day about this and its fascinating what is happening now.

Little things like many of those Russian deaths are from post curfew and with knives - they leave the dead Russians in the street for others to find. Shocking stuff, but I get what they are doing. Saw a new item about some Russian appointed 'minister' was blown up in his car - the third one to hold the position (cant prove that independently by the way). Its having a massive moral issue for the Russians and Separatists.

My point? The cost of holding what territory that they have will be incredibly high. Even at current levels, the Russians just dont have enough troops to hold ground, never mind expand this. Add to that MRLS that can fire 40+ miles and you have a number of factors that mean that I just dont see Russia holding much territory long term.

[off_again]

CrutyRammers said:

I thought this sort of thing is interesting - I know it's not the first time this sort of thing has happened.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1541756...

People finding the identities of the pilots who launched missiles at the mall (or even just pilots from the same unit) and splashing them across the world. Bombing used to be an impersonal thing, the bomber, safely anonymous, killing people he never saw. Now it's being reversed, and you get to be a target for the rest of your life.

Dont forget that chances are these pilots have Ukrainian relatives or friends. For a little bit of work, these people have now been marked and I suspect this is for a long time too. They are going to be checking over their shoulders for a while - even if the threat isnt real, the fear of the threat will be sufficient. Add in a bit of fake news on social media in Russia and you have people questioning things more and more. Clever, very clever.

[TTmonkey]

https://twitter.com/BackAndAlive/status/1541741015...

Great video.

[off_again]

isaldiri said:

They will once the flow of western arms stops because the war is being pretty much fully maintained by that as compared to Ukraine's own military capability

Once western attention shifts as there are considerably more important domestic issues to attempt to get sorted and the effort/costs are viewed as being greater than forcing an end to the mess in a far away place, Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.

I understand what you are saying - the West is incredibly short sighted and focused on selfish aspects. For example, I am getting increasingly frustrated by those here in the US that keep bleating on about how expensive gas is and that Biden keeps sending billions to Ukraine - seriously, these selfish individuals are more motivated around having cheap gas for their stupid 'Bro truck than they are about the safety and democracy of a European nation? But yeah, some people are that self-centered and selfish.

However, those people are a minority. The more that Russia keeps screwing up and bombing shopping centers and messing up on the battlefield, the more prolonged this will drag out. People love backing the underdog, like Ukraine. If there is a chance of a win (in any form), they are going to keep backing Ukraine - and time doesnt really factor in at this point. And when we are talking about the billions being spend, it really doesnt add up to much in the short term. We have seen older and stored systems being sent, which does cost money, isnt newly procured using tax payers money. And I am sure that the various governments are shuffling their budgets to cater for this anyway, so I really not that worried about the money. Plus, the Western governments can afford this - Prerun on YouTube said this in his video a month or so ago - the growth in GDP for the Western nations for this year alone, outstrips Russian spending on the military!

And this is before you factor in the Russians ability to replace what they have lost. They cant, its that simple. They have shells, ammo and a disposable population (which is frightening to say, but its true - outside of Moscow and St Petersburg of course). They are running short of pretty much everything else. The longer this continues the more Russia cant replace what is lost. They are running critically low on guided munitions. They are resorting to using T-62 tanks from the 1960's and from what I know, their drone fleet is resorting to the emergency response ones! While the human loss is tragic, Russia cannot keep this up at this level of loss and will be impacted for decades to come.

Russia might have access to raw materials and manpower - but the lack electronics, chips, technology and pretty much anything else to build any real advanced weapons systems. The West can keep arming Ukraine and they will keep using them - even if the funding drops, its ammo the Ukrainians need, and thats cheap in comparison. I dont see a way out for Russia at the moment.

[TTmonkey]

https://twitter.com/BackAndAlive/status/1541741015...

Great video.

[BikeBikeBIke]

JNW1 said:

Perhaps - but in my view hanging the Ukraine out to dry isn't the only way of shutting down the mess sooner rather than later. Direct and focused military support from the US and other NATO countries could also bring the conflict to a swift conclusion with (IMO) the added benefit of sending a much better message to Russia (and others) in terms of how unprovoked aggression against a friendly country is likely to be handled....

I agree, and Putin would go straight home with his tail between his legs.

Whether it's worth the 0.000001 chance he ended the world or not.... I'm glad it's not my decision.

[sisu]

Port in the south of Ukraine where they struck 2 ships at the start of the war 10 minutesago

[isaldiri]

TEKNOPUG said:

Think of the massive financial military savings from having Russian put back in it's box for a generation or two and the huge boost to the global economy of Eastern European countries and other bordering Russia not having to fear of invasion or other Russian interference.

The idea that military spending is going to go down just because Russia has been driven out of Ukraine is quite rather unlikely. If anything it's going to continue being ramped up by the US to face future threats from China because Russia will be used as an example of what happens if more money isn't poured into the military and the US is going continue to be rather keen on the rest of Nato buying plenty of military kit....

JNW1 said:

Perhaps - but in my view hanging the Ukraine out to dry isn't the only way of shutting down the mess sooner rather than later. Direct and focused military support from the US and other NATO countries could also bring the conflict to a swift conclusion with (IMO) the added benefit of sending a much better message to Russia (and others) in terms of how unprovoked aggression against a friendly country is likely to be handled....

Oh sure it is and it's also clearly something that has been very definitively ruled out a long time ago. We're entirely happy for the Ukrainians to use our kit and be doing the fighting and dying against the evil Russians to show how unprovoked aggression should be punished. We aren't quite as keen to be doing so ourselves.

off_again said:

I understand what you are saying - the West is incredibly short sighted and focused on selfish aspects. For example, I am getting increasingly frustrated by those here in the US that keep bleating on about how expensive gas is and that Biden keeps sending billions to Ukraine - seriously, these selfish individuals are more motivated around having cheap gas for their stupid 'Bro truck than they are about the safety and democracy of a European nation? But yeah, some people are that self-centered and selfish.

If you can agree that west is or can be incredibly short sighted and docused on selfish aspects, I am quite curious why you are then quite as certain that we will necessarily stay the course to 'delivery victory' for Ukraine rather than doing what's expedient for us as we always have and always will.

As Eddiesteadygo has pointed out, if Ukraine isn't substantially gaining a military advantage soon (and there have been claims that western support and fancy new kit would mean the russians would soon be faced with total defeat shortly since...end of March when they withdrew from the northern areas), whether public support remains quite as keen on being saddled with what they perceive as the costs of supporting Ukraine (and certainly for the US it's going to be viewed as a far away place that doesn't exactly bother them overmuch as compared to say Poland or the Baltics) with the consequent disruption and energy costs is quite another thing. Some seem to be absolutely convinced that it will - well I don't think it's necessarily quite as guaranteed. time will tell I suppose.

Edited by isaldiri on Tuesday 28th June 17:41

[rxe]

off_again said:

Well in excess of 300 Russian and separatist deaths in the Donbas alone. While not a significant number in the scale of Russian losses, its escalating and now the Ukrainians have resorted to car bombs and IED's indicating an escalation. Read an interesting article the other day about this and its fascinating what is happening now.

Little things like many of those Russian deaths are from post curfew and with knives - they leave the dead Russians in the street for others to find. Shocking stuff, but I get what they are doing. Saw a new item about some Russian appointed 'minister' was blown up in his car - the third one to hold the position (cant prove that independently by the way). Its having a massive moral issue for the Russians and Separatists.

My point? The cost of holding what territory that they have will be incredibly high. Even at current levels, the Russians just dont have enough troops to hold ground, never mind expand this. Add to that MRLS that can fire 40+ miles and you have a number of factors that mean that I just dont see Russia holding much territory long term.

The most valuable thing the partisans can do is to highlight to the Ukranians where concentrations of Russian troops and kit are. It is likely that a lot of the ammunition dumps have been located via partisan information.

[BikeBikeBIke]

off_again said:

Dont forget that chances are these pilots have Ukrainian relatives or friends. For a little bit of work, these people have now been marked and I suspect this is for a long time too. They are going to be checking over their shoulders for a while - even if the threat isnt real, the fear of the threat will be sufficient. Add in a bit of fake news on social media in Russia and you have people questioning things more and more. Clever, very clever.

...and will other pilots refuse to fly missions against non military targets if the whole world knows they did it?

[anonymous-user]

BikeBikeBIke said:

off_again said:

Dont forget that chances are these pilots have Ukrainian relatives or friends. For a little bit of work, these people have now been marked and I suspect this is for a long time too. They are going to be checking over their shoulders for a while - even if the threat isnt real, the fear of the threat will be sufficient. Add in a bit of fake news on social media in Russia and you have people questioning things more and more. Clever, very clever.

...and will other pilots refuse to fly missions against non military targets if the whole world knows they did it?

I imagine only a matter of time before they find their home addresses too. They've done that a number of times to some of the phone intercepts.

[BikeBikeBIke]

fblm said:

I imagine only a matter of time before they find their home addresses too. They've done that a number of times to some of the phone intercepts.

The humiliation of having done it will be immense without any fear of freelance repercussions, "What did you do in the war Grandad?".

Plus Russia have a habit of giving the guys who commit attrocities suicide missions to stop them talking.