Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
Finland/Sweden/Turkey sign memorandum about the Scandic states joining NATO.
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/154185016...
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/154185016...
simo1863 said:
off_again said:
Loss percentages among those from the separatist side is shocking. The two principle groups (cant remember the names, never mind spell them correctly) are suffering huge and disproportionate losses in comparison to the Russians. And there is a lot of evidence that much of the losses are of these two groups - deliberately!
Sheesh, another grim reality of the Russian tactics, but also yes, they have to resort to press gangs as its the only way to get people to sign up. Its really that bad.
Not sure how true it is but I read a 55% causalty rate (so far).Sheesh, another grim reality of the Russian tactics, but also yes, they have to resort to press gangs as its the only way to get people to sign up. Its really that bad.
Widespread reporting of that 55% number though - multiple sources and corroborated with Donetsk numbers. Though worth noting that the 55% loss is for the Donetsk militia from the original numbers at the start of all of this. Cleary they have added to that total since Feb - but again it goes to unsustainable attrition. There simply isnt the people left to swell the ranks up! The pool of people able to serve (not even willing) is getting smaller and smaller and at this level, they will simply run out of people willing and able to hold a rifle - and yes, its true about many in the Donetsk militia having to use old and outdated weapons.
Puggit said:
Finland/Sweden/Turkey sign memorandum about the Scandic states joining NATO.
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/154185016...
Still got the incorrect Russian / Ukrainian General photo in the previous tweet so hopefully this is accurate. Quite big news if correct.https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/154185016...
Jockman said:
Puggit said:
Finland/Sweden/Turkey sign memorandum about the Scandic states joining NATO.
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/154185016...
Still got the incorrect Russian / Ukrainian General photo in the previous tweet so hopefully this is accurate. Quite big news if correct.https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/154185016...
EddieSteadyGo said:
MOTORVATOR said:
I think it all boils down what is he doing now. He's pushing buttons to see how far he can go so it will all be about how robust a response he sees.
...
True, but he has ended up caught up in a rather nasty net; bogged down in a painful ground war, foreign reserves frozen (with the threat of being confiscated), forced to sell energy at a discount (which whilst fine now is heading into problems as the price drops next year), and facing Ukraine which now has sufficient artillery to keep lobbing shells into the Donbas causing unhappy residents (who will blame their self-declared protectorate, Putin)....
So if you were Putin or his close advisor, what would you do next?
Has he got anyone sensible (brave?) enough around him to advise this really is going to start going backwards soon so best start negotiating? I somewhat doubt it just yet and it is going to take another firm move against him before he considers he has got to his optimum achievable position.
That will be his aim I think, get as much as he possibly can then offer to turn the taps down in return for retaining as much as he can negotiate. The problem with that strategy is he miscalculated the resolve of the Ukrainians to retain everything they own. They in turn have also appealed to ROW as the under dogs that did nothing to deserve this treatment and far from seeing diminishing support they are actually seeing increasing support by the day.
I suspect he will start to go backwards very soon and once the ROW see that I can't see them falling for the negotiation table, they will just ramp up the pressure to restore the world back to where it was before Putin decided he knew best for another country.
All conjecture mind as he does have a habit of surprising us with his fantasies!
BikeBikeBIke said:
I think we know what he'll do, when Russia culminate he'll claim he's liberated all the territory he needs to and call for a ceasefire.
If Ukraine say "nope, we wanna carry on" he'll hope that will fracture the resolve of the West.
....but that plan isn't going to work.
So...
He's painted himself into a corner, there's nothing he can do except maintain a low level defensive war for as long as he can until something changes.
I really see no way to a fast peace, neither side can concede enough for the other side, there is no clever way out.
I agree with this, I really don’t see where Putin goes from here other than the “low level defensive war”If Ukraine say "nope, we wanna carry on" he'll hope that will fracture the resolve of the West.
....but that plan isn't going to work.
So...
He's painted himself into a corner, there's nothing he can do except maintain a low level defensive war for as long as he can until something changes.
I really see no way to a fast peace, neither side can concede enough for the other side, there is no clever way out.
If this new long range artillery/MLRS is really capable of what people say it is and then can keep the things firing for a few months Putin may well have a problem on his hands.Just holding the ground they currently have could become seriously difficult with supply lines cut/extremely vulnerable.
I imagine at the moment we have Ukranian troops firing these US MLRS systems at targets that have largely been identified using US satellites/planes. Clearly Ukraine is a massive country but if they could really apply pressure in the south and somehow open up a port it would make a massive difference.
They should send in ships under the UN flag to take grain out to be sent to African nations.
EddieSteadyGo said:
So what do we think Putin will do next? And I mean *will* do, rather than *should* do.
Zelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
Low yield nuclear weapon about 100 miles from the Polish border, doesn’t have to be a city, take out a load of military sites. Accompanied with a clear message - we are fZelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
king done pissing about, annoy us any more and we’ll see if all the stories about MAD are true. It’s actually the only viable option he has. The only end to the road he is following is being kicked out of Ukraine, have his army pretty much destroyed and then all his republics uprising - it would be the end of the Russian Federation. The west will continue to hand over increasingly powerful weapons to Ukraine until this happens.
Puggit said:
Finland/Sweden/Turkey sign memorandum about the Scandic states joining NATO.
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/154185016...
That’s a turn up for the books. Are Turkey finally picking a side? https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/154185016...
EddieSteadyGo said:
So what do we think Putin will do next? And I mean *will* do, rather than *should* do.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
Should or will? One possible option wrt to 'should' - accept that Russia isn't going to overrun the whole of Ukraine and just be content with the rebel regions. Wait till enough of the Donbas has been secured by pounding any opposition down and the russians can reasonably expect to hold them for the time being and the Crimean land bridge - then declare an end to the 'special military operation' because 'victory' is achieved with a cessation of further offensive military manoeuvres apart from defending the separatists (while hold phony referendums) from 'nazi attacks'.I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
It still means essentially continuing to grind out a fairly vicious but lower level conflict but that happened for years previously anyway and as long as it's more out of sight with no major obvious troop movements it's less 'visible' and more likely slowly ignored over time. Meanwhile put out some sympathisers to suggest in various propaganda moves that it's Ukraine at this point continuing aggressive military moves if they continue to attack russian positions.
At the same time, send various mooks that have some remaining western contacts to suggest that they are open to restoring energy and commodity supplies plus can consider shifting the grain from ports and basically just wait and see if that can fracture the supposed european unity as time passes....
off_again said:
Yeah, I heard a calculated 35% casualty rate - but when you factored out those unable to join and those unwilling - yeah, you get to some pretty disastrous numbers. Some even suggesting that upwards of 75% of eligible men.
Widespread reporting of that 55% number though - multiple sources and corroborated with Donetsk numbers. Though worth noting that the 55% loss is for the Donetsk militia from the original numbers at the start of all of this. Cleary they have added to that total since Feb - but again it goes to unsustainable attrition. There simply isnt the people left to swell the ranks up! The pool of people able to serve (not even willing) is getting smaller and smaller and at this level, they will simply run out of people willing and able to hold a rifle - and yes, its true about many in the Donetsk militia having to use old and outdated weapons.
It helps when there are some pretty senior people (even those that are Russian backed) from the 'republics' on telegram who are open about casualties and how their forces are being used, although they don't protest massively, just say "yeah we've got lots of casualties and our forces are used as cannon fodder"Widespread reporting of that 55% number though - multiple sources and corroborated with Donetsk numbers. Though worth noting that the 55% loss is for the Donetsk militia from the original numbers at the start of all of this. Cleary they have added to that total since Feb - but again it goes to unsustainable attrition. There simply isnt the people left to swell the ranks up! The pool of people able to serve (not even willing) is getting smaller and smaller and at this level, they will simply run out of people willing and able to hold a rifle - and yes, its true about many in the Donetsk militia having to use old and outdated weapons.
ruggedscotty said:
... he has already tested the resolve by bombing that mall...
I think most of the analysts accept he didn't actually try and bomb the shopping centre - I think they sent two missiles into the factory next door, which then caused the fire in the shopping centre. Not saying that makes it right, or forgivable, but it won't be the first instance of collateral damage in this war.EddieSteadyGo said:
ruggedscotty said:
... he has already tested the resolve by bombing that mall...
I think most of the analysts accept he didn't actually try and bomb the shopping centre - I think they sent two missiles into the factory next door, which then caused the fire in the shopping centre. Not saying that makes it right, or forgivable, but it won't be the first instance of collateral damage in this war.king propaganda.EddieSteadyGo said:
ruggedscotty said:
... he has already tested the resolve by bombing that mall...
I think most of the analysts accept he didn't actually try and bomb the shopping centre - I think they sent two missiles into the factory next door, which then caused the fire in the shopping centre. Not saying that makes it right, or forgivable, but it won't be the first instance of collateral damage in this war.https://media.un.org/en/asset/k1f/k1fncdy0el
He's not holding back on his requests to see Russia taken out of UN process.
Edited by MOTORVATOR on Tuesday 28th June 20:24
Interesting before and after pictures here - they seem to show that the Russians are taking an absolute pounding from HIMARS.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/28/2106967...
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/28/2106967...
EddieSteadyGo said:
I think most of the analysts accept he didn't actually try and bomb the shopping centre - I think they sent two missiles into the factory next door, which then caused the fire in the shopping centre. Not saying that makes it right, or forgivable, but it won't be the first instance of collateral damage in this war.
There seems to be an awful lot of hospitals, kindergartens and schools in your collateral damage.EddieSteadyGo said:
I think most of the analysts accept he didn't actually try and bomb the shopping centre - I think they sent two missiles into the factory next door, which then caused the fire in the shopping centre. Not saying that makes it right, or forgivable, but it won't be the first instance of collateral damage in this war.
That would be plausible if they hadn't originally claimed this:
...and they did it at lunchtime. Seems designed to max out civilian deaths.
Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Tuesday 28th June 20:35
isaldiri said:
Should or will? One possible option wrt to 'should' - accept that Russia isn't going to overrun the whole of Ukraine and just be content with the rebel regions. Wait till enough of the Donbas has been secured by pounding any opposition down and the russians can reasonably expect to hold them for the time being and the Crimean land bridge - then declare an end to the 'special military operation' because 'victory' is achieved with a cessation of further offensive military manoeuvres apart from defending the separatists (while hold phony referendums) from 'nazi attacks'.
You think Ukraine will then just say 'ok' and go home for tea? I suspect that they won't want to just leave it there.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff