Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[BikeBikeBIke]

rxe said:

Interesting before and after pictures here - they seem to show that the Russians are taking an absolute pounding from HIMARS.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/28/2106967...

Daily Kos is superb. Thanks.

[CrutyRammers]

EddieSteadyGo said:

I think most of the analysts accept he didn't actually try and bomb the shopping centre - I think they sent two missiles into the factory next door, which then caused the fire in the shopping centre. Not saying that makes it right, or forgivable, but it won't be the first instance of collateral damage in this war.

Remarkable.
The massive wave on missile attacks on cities over the last couple of days was what, in your mind?

[BikeBikeBIke]

Biggy Stardust said:

isaldiri said:

Should or will? One possible option wrt to 'should' - accept that Russia isn't going to overrun the whole of Ukraine and just be content with the rebel regions. Wait till enough of the Donbas has been secured by pounding any opposition down and the russians can reasonably expect to hold them for the time being and the Crimean land bridge - then declare an end to the 'special military operation' because 'victory' is achieved with a cessation of further offensive military manoeuvres apart from defending the separatists (while hold phony referendums) from 'nazi attacks'.

You think Ukraine will then just say 'ok' and go home for tea? I suspect that they won't want to just leave it there.

This.

Hitler couldn't just say "Ok, we'll stop here." when he got to the Volga. They Russians had other ideas.

Ditto Putin/Ukraine.

[RichFN2]

rxe said:

Low yield nuclear weapon about 100 miles from the Polish border, doesn’t have to be a city, take out a load of military sites. Accompanied with a clear message - we are fking done pissing about, annoy us any more and we’ll see if all the stories about MAD are true.

It’s actually the only viable option he has. The only end to the road he is following is being kicked out of Ukraine, have his army pretty much destroyed and then all his republics uprising - it would be the end of the Russian Federation. The west will continue to hand over increasingly powerful weapons to Ukraine until this happens.

I have a horrible feeling that in his position and with his mindset this is the most likely outcome

He is clearly enraged at how badly the war has gone and how the world has turned against him, this was meant to be over in a week and like the Georgia war soon forgotten about with little consequences.

You then have to consider that he has actually commited war crimes, genocide and has setup filtration camps all across Russia to house Ukrainian nationals while a Russian population is pumped into occupied territories.

How does he actually stop this when he has gone so far? He can't just accept Donbas and try to act like a normal president by hosting other nations and going on state visits. Half the world wants him dead and most countries will not trade with him! He is completely fked and will need to gain control of Ukraine, the Baltic's etc before he can relax from a security point of view.

He is full on crazy and far more dangerous than any dictator since Hitler, he either gets killed or continues his world domination

[EddieSteadyGo]

TriumphStag3.0V8 said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

ruggedscotty said:

... he has already tested the resolve by bombing that mall...

I think most of the analysts accept he didn't actually try and bomb the shopping centre - I think they sent two missiles into the factory next door, which then caused the fire in the shopping centre. Not saying that makes it right, or forgivable, but it won't be the first instance of collateral damage in this war.

Please don't fall for that fking propaganda.

I don't think it is propaganda. This is the CCTV showing the cruise missile strikes, tweeted from Ukraine sources. From the geolocation of the CCTV camera (on the related thread) it would seem the missiles didn't directly hit the shopping centre, although you could reasonably argue it was reckless to use that type of missile to target that particularly location with so many civilian targets near by.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1541536257716...

[EddieSteadyGo]

CrutyRammers said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

I think most of the analysts accept he didn't actually try and bomb the shopping centre - I think they sent two missiles into the factory next door, which then caused the fire in the shopping centre. Not saying that makes it right, or forgivable, but it won't be the first instance of collateral damage in this war.

Remarkable.
The massive wave on missile attacks on cities over the last couple of days was what, in your mind?

Please don't misrepresent what I wrote - many missiles have clearly hit civilian buildings. In this case, I don't think it did, and I've posted the specific evidence why I currently think that is the case.

[BikeBikeBIke]

EddieSteadyGo said:

TriumphStag3.0V8 said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

ruggedscotty said:

... he has already tested the resolve by bombing that mall...

I think most of the analysts accept he didn't actually try and bomb the shopping centre - I think they sent two missiles into the factory next door, which then caused the fire in the shopping centre. Not saying that makes it right, or forgivable, but it won't be the first instance of collateral damage in this war.

Please don't fall for that fking propaganda.

I don't think it is propaganda. This is the CCTV showing the cruise missile strikes, tweeted from Ukraine sources. From the geolocation of the CCTV camera (on the related thread) it would seem the missiles didn't directly hit the shopping centre, although you could reasonably argue it was reckless to use that type of missile to target that particularly location with so many civilian targets near by.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1541536257716...

Criminal to use such inaccurate weapons on a target in a city, but potentially they weren't hoping to hit the Mall. Except the time seems intended to maximise civilian casualties and Russia's story has changed. So maybe they *were* intending some collateral damage.

Good thread here:
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/15418586611...

I hope we can all agree Russia's initial story was a lie.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Tuesday 28th June 20:53

[sisu]

TriumphStag3.0V8 said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

ruggedscotty said:

... he has already tested the resolve by bombing that mall...

I think most of the analysts accept he didn't actually try and bomb the shopping centre - I think they sent two missiles into the factory next door, which then caused the fire in the shopping centre. Not saying that makes it right, or forgivable, but it won't be the first instance of collateral damage in this war.

Please don't fall for that fking propaganda.

I would not question it, this was their government statement. Have they got Amber Heard as their advisor?

[CrgT16]

This is not going to end well… we keep feeding this war because we have too but we can’t really defeat them. They will unleash a nuke before being defeated low level or not I think we will blink first. Can’t see him doing it he is crazy… now if he died of natural causes that could be helpful!

[Cobracc]

Interesting that despite western sanctions.....the Rouble is at a 5year high against the Dollar and Sterling is at a 5year low.

[TriumphStag3.0V8]

Biggy Stardust said:

isaldiri said:

Should or will? One possible option wrt to 'should' - accept that Russia isn't going to overrun the whole of Ukraine and just be content with the rebel regions. Wait till enough of the Donbas has been secured by pounding any opposition down and the russians can reasonably expect to hold them for the time being and the Crimean land bridge - then declare an end to the 'special military operation' because 'victory' is achieved with a cessation of further offensive military manoeuvres apart from defending the separatists (while hold phony referendums) from 'nazi attacks'.

You think Ukraine will then just say 'ok' and go home for tea? I suspect that they won't want to just leave it there.

Watching Zelenski in his various speeches since the start of the war, he has looked exhausted recently (understandably) but in his press conference after the shopping mall he looked absolutely fking furious (understandably). There is no negotiation now, Russia needs to get out of Ukraine.

[BikeBikeBIke]

Cobracc said:

Interesting that despite western sanctions.....the Rouble is at a 5year high against the Dollar and Sterling is at a 5year low.

Draconian and desperate laws to defend your currency can do that. It's not a good thing.

[CrutyRammers]

EddieSteadyGo said:

CrutyRammers said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

I think most of the analysts accept he didn't actually try and bomb the shopping centre - I think they sent two missiles into the factory next door, which then caused the fire in the shopping centre. Not saying that makes it right, or forgivable, but it won't be the first instance of collateral damage in this war.

Remarkable.
The massive wave on missile attacks on cities over the last couple of days was what, in your mind?

Please don't misrepresent what I wrote - many missiles have clearly hit civilian buildings. In this case, I don't think it did, and I've posted the specific evidence why I currently think that is the case.

I didn't misrepresent anything. I asked a question.

[CrutyRammers]

Cobracc said:

Interesting that despite western sanctions.....the Rouble is at a 5year high against the Dollar and Sterling is at a 5year low.

Well, apart from the fact that you can't buy anything outside of Russia with roubles, yeah.

[EddieSteadyGo]

CrutyRammers said:

I didn't misrepresent anything. I asked a question.

If you are going to accuse someone of something, or imply it, don't back down or fold the moment you get challenged by trying to pretend you were just "asking a question".

[HM-2]

CrgT16 said:

This is not going to end well… we keep feeding this war because we have too but we can’t really defeat them.

Go have a nice warm bath and relax. Nobody is getting nuked over this.

EddieSteadyGo said:

CrutyRammers said:

I didn't misrepresent anything. I asked a question.

If you are going to accuse someone of something, or imply it, don't back down or fold the moment you get challenged by trying to pretend you were just "asking a question".

He didn't "accuse" you of anything, nor did he "fold", plus it's an entirely legitimate question.

The CCTV footage doesn't actually support the notion that the shopping centre wasn't directly targeted, so I'm left concluding that either a) you've read someone else say it does and blindly parroted that, or b) believing it was accidental aligns more with your own views, despite the fact there's a huge wealth of evidence Russia has been directly targeting civilian infrastructure for terror purposes.

Edited by HM-2 on Tuesday 28th June 21:41

[anonymous-user]

MiniMan64 said:

Puggit said:

Finland/Sweden/Turkey sign memorandum about the Scandic states joining NATO.

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/154185016...

That’s a turn up for the books. Are Turkey finally picking a side?

NATO members have been bigging up Erdogens ego for weeks, it was inevitable he would fold once he got that ego boost. Backhanders galore too no doubt.

[off_again]

Cobracc said:

Interesting that despite western sanctions.....the Rouble is at a 5year high against the Dollar and Sterling is at a 5year low.

Its amazing what scarcity and government backed programs can do to keep your currency high. However, dont forget that the Russian central bank has instituted a number of mechanisms to force companies to trade in Roubles and at the same time buying up massive reserves of it. Scarcity then drives up the value.

Its all artificial though. Russia just defaulted on some if its debt a couple of days ago, cant access 60%+ of its sovereign funds and will at some point run out of cash. Of course, they can print more, but then that deflates the value. Catch 22. Works today, and great, its keeping it high. I doubt it wont last. And dont forget that the Russian economy is expected to decline by between 9% and 12% if you take different sources. With inflation at around 17% in a declining economy without access to key components for production / manufacture and energy production, I am going to go out on a limb here - I dont think that the Rouble will remain strong at the end of the year and into 2023......

[anonymous-user]

Cobracc said:

Interesting that despite western sanctions.....the Rouble is at a 5year high against the Dollar and Sterling is at a 5year low.

Not really. There are severe capital controls so whilst they're still selling oil and gas they can't buy anything with the proceeds. It's an illusion.

[off_again]

jsf said:

MiniMan64 said:

Puggit said:

Finland/Sweden/Turkey sign memorandum about the Scandic states joining NATO.

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/154185016...

That’s a turn up for the books. Are Turkey finally picking a side?

NATO members have been bigging up Erdogens ego for weeks, it was inevitable he would fold once he got that ego boost. Backhanders galore too no doubt.

Without a doubt that favors have been provided and back-handers paid. Erdogan has a lot of issues in Turkey, so being the strongman helps his standing. But ultimately he doesn't want to be the man that stands in the way of this - just wanted to get some concessions and assistance before he caved. He's a massive git, but he's clever and astute - he was always going to cave, just after he got what he wanted.