Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[anonymous-user]

isaldiri said:

What makes Ukraine so much more deserving of having money and arms supplied compared to.....well name any of the other places in the world where terrible things are either happening or have been happening for goodness knows how long that we have been quite content to allow happening for ages...?

Whatabout everywhere else? Again? Really? What is this the fifth, sixth time? If they had invaded Finland would you be sticking to the same line?

[BikeBikeBIke]

vdn said:

Russia has truly fked itself. All for a small man, who was bullied as a child, to act out his fantasies of tough man / great leader of yesteryear.

I like that analogy. He really did just sit about the Kremlin over the Covid lockdowns wking over old maps and thought "Hey, I could be like a 19C king and nick another country. Hmmmm, legacy.".

Utter tt.

...and I know that I keep saying it but his older brother died of starvation/disease as a baby in the Siege of Leningrad, and now this prick still thinks inflicting war and hunger on people is a good idea. "Hitler starved my baby brother to death, seems like a good idea, I'll follow his example."

Bell end.

[off_again]

PRTVR said:

MLRS fragments found in destroyed Russia warehouse 45km behind front line.

https://gagadget.com/en/war/140941-the-work-of-the...



The video that I posted the other day showing a helicopter in the distance getting shot down has been confirmed by the Ukrainians as being shot down by a star streak missile.

Yeah, I saw that and did a little digging. Didnt the US say that they would be supplying HIMARS but with the older and shorter range missiles? Or did they deliberately obscure the details to hide the fact that they were supplying GPS guided systems to the Ukrainians? I maybe conflating things here though, so do excuse me being wrong.

But with more HIMARS, missiles and the other systems being delivered, its unlikely to change the whole outcome of the war, but its certainly going to allow the Ukrainians to take the initiative in key areas and disproportionately impact the Russians.

[off_again]

BikeBikeBIke said:

I like that analogy. He really did just sit about the Kremlin over the Covid lockdowns wking over old maps and thought "Hey, I could be like a 19C king and nick another country. Hmmmm, legacy.".

Utter tt.

...and I know that I keep saying it but his older brother died of starvation/disease as a baby in the Siege of Leningrad, and now this prick still thinks inflicting war and hunger on people is a good idea. "Hitler starved my baby brother to death, seems like a good idea, I'll follow his example."

Bell end.

Dont hold back .... say what you mean...



And I think the irony is absolutely lost on the man. From de-Nazification exercises that involve rounding up all of the locals and shipping them to 'rehabilitation camps' to invading when he clearly said he wouldnt and pretty much everything else. Yeah, clearly Putin and his supporting wkstains dont understand irony or how repeating history doesnt necessarily mean the outcome will be different.

[off_again]

spookly said:

isaldiri said:

spookly said:

I can't see a more deserving place to be spending that money at the moment.

What makes Ukraine so much more deserving of having money and arms supplied compared to.....well name any of the other places in the world where terrible things are either happening or have been happening for goodness knows how long that we have been quite content to allow happening for ages...?

Fair point. But this one has far greater economic and geopolitical consequences for us (us as in the NATO/Western countries).
Is that morally fair, perhaps not. But I don't think this one can be safely ignored. We've already seen what Putin did after we mostly ignored his annexation of Crimea and his invasion of 2014. And on the back of ignoring chemical weapons use and murders in the UK.
That's the problem with Putin. If nobody stands up to him he isn't magically going to get better, he'll just be emboldened to do worse and see where the line is. About time they were shown that the line exists.

And that is the problem here - Putin cannot be trusted. He has lied, cheated, invaded, stolen and persecuted. And thats before we get to anything else.

Say we let Russia take Ukraine - what next? Will he act like a sensible leader who truly wants to free Ukraine and bring peace and stability to the country? Or will he install a puppet regime, allow corruption and organized crime to continue and suppress and control 44m people while stealing the wealth and resources from the lands? We can look at recent history for his intentions and reality on this.

And as Spookly says - this doesnt get better. He's not going to change here. There is no magic outcome for Ukraine. If we allow Putin to succeed in Ukraine, who is it next? Bulgaria? Romania? Slovakia? And he has a massive Axe to grind against Poland too. Do we just let him take those countries too? And dont forget that he retains power, influence and control across a whole swath of 'countries to the south too....

As painful as it is, yes, there are probably more deserving people in the world - but in a world of limited budgets, the most pressing and relevant thing to focus on today is expansionism by force from Russia. It cannot be allowed to continue and it must be stopped.

[J4CKO]

BikeBikeBIke said:

Biggy Stardust said:

Bluedot said:

All sound pretty sensible to me.
I can't even begin to imagine the horror and outrage should they ever try and implement something like that in this country

The notable thing about national service is that almost everyone suggesting it would be exempt themselves- they think it's a great idea for others to be forced into it.

I was opposed to it, but now you remind me I won't be eligible it seems like a great idea. Just what youngsters need. Character building.


In other news Russia short of conscripts:

https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/15421669920225...

Cant understand it, its such a tempting career choice.

If I was in Russia, I would definitely give up my IT career working from home on half decent money with limited agro and join the army.

I mean, I have never been vaporised in a st old tank and my boss just gets a bit grumpy if I don't do as I am told, never shot me in the face for not filling in my timesheet.

Does make me think that the message that its not all going swimmingly might be getting through, all good talking ste on Telegram but putting your arse in the firing line ? Maybe they arent as stupid as their boss makes them all look ?

I dont have a massive ego, but I also dont feel like I should be cannon fodder/disposable, suspect Russian chaps are in the same ball park on that one.

[isaldiri]

spookly said:

Fair point. But this one has far greater economic and geopolitical consequences for us (us as in the NATO/Western countries).
Is that morally fair, perhaps not. But I don't think this one can be safely ignored. We've already seen what Putin did after we mostly ignored his annexation of Crimea and his invasion of 2014. And on the back of ignoring chemical weapons use and murders in the UK.
That's the problem with Putin. If nobody stands up to him he isn't magically going to get better, he'll just be emboldened to do worse and see where the line is. About time they were shown that the line exists.

Given the manifest lack of capability of the russians to takeover the whole of Ukraine, the supposed threat of russia to the major powers of nato is hardly so great that the Ukrainians absolutely need to be helped 'to win' (whatever that might mean). It's repeatedly pointed out here how incompetent the russian military is and how they are resorting to using antiquated kit - so exactly what is this overwhelming threat to western security that is so great? Especially given that we are content to let the ukranians do the fighting and dying to defend it rather than actually doing anything ourselves?

fblm said:

Whatabout everywhere else? Again? Really? What is this the fifth, sixth time? If they had invaded Finland would you be sticking to the same line?

Yes whatabout everyone else. Again. you might choose to ignore all that whataboutery (although isn't raising Finland equally doing the whataboutism that you so deplore....?) but it's exactly the reason why I am not as adamant as you are that the great and the good in the US will necessarily continue to be so keen to continue this indefinitely because 'it's the right thing and the bad guys must be punished'. The US and the UK and all the rest have for years been entirely happy to let all manner of unpleasant things in a lot of places pass without particularly being too bothered.

[twister]

EddieSteadyGo said:

isaldiri said:

spookly said:

By reading all the news articles quoting most world leaders becoming more, not less, steadfast in their support for Ukraine.

Well that's the point i suppose, I don't think it's quite as clearcut as you seem to that the 'steadfastness of support' will last for months. Let's see what the politicians actually do later rather than say now in the year anyway when or if public opinion shifts as talk is cheap (especially when it concerns politicians)....

Perhap spookly didn't read all the news articles. CNN are reporting the following.

"Advisers to President Biden have begun debating internally how and whether Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian "victory" -- adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly."

Of course that isn't yet US policy and it hasn't filtered up to the big cheeses, but we would be naive to believe the discussions are not currently ongoing behind the scenes, regardless of the set piece announcements.

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1541755...

I'm not so sure that article contradicts Spookly's comments - "debating how and whether", "adjusting for the possibility" - as it then goes onto note, it'd be naive to presume that such discussions around all the what-if scenarios wasn't taking place, not just in the US but within the halls of government for every nation currently providing support to Ukraine.

It shouldn't, as you seem to be doing here, be taken as an indication that the US are becoming less steadfast in their support for Ukraine, merely giving us all a useful reality check and reminding us that, despite what most of us dearly hope to see as the outcome of this war, nothing can or should be taken for granted, and making pre-emptive preparations for things not going our way is simply good planning. Once the Russian army is kicked back across the border, we can tear up all these alternative plans and rejoice with the Ukranians in their victory. Until then, let's just keep those plans safely tucked away in our back pockets, just in case it all goes to st and somehow Pootin manages to conjur up some sort of tactical masterstroke having lulled us all into a false sense of security by giving us the impression that he thinks tactics are those little minty sweets you get in clear plastic boxes...

[anonymous-user]

J4CKO said:

...
If I was in Russia, I would definitely give up my IT career working from home on half decent money with limited agro and join the army.
...

Which is why there's almost no one from Moscow or St Petersberg in the ranks. Geographically the vast majority of Russia is a proper 3rd world agrarian/basic industrial sthole where your options are living in abject poverty with appalling work and living conditions or signing up, go shoot at some Nazis, get paid a bit and some looting and rape thrown in for free.

[Evanivitch]

J4CKO said:

Cant understand it, its such a tempting career choice.

If I was in Russia, I would definitely give up my IT career working from home on half decent money with limited agro and join the army.

I mean, I have never been vaporised in a st old tank and my boss just gets a bit grumpy if I don't do as I am told, never shot me in the face for not filling in my timesheet.

Does make me think that the message that its not all going swimmingly might be getting through, all good talking ste on Telegram but putting your arse in the firing line ? Maybe they arent as stupid as their boss makes them all look ?

I dont have a massive ego, but I also dont feel like I should be cannon fodder/disposable, suspect Russian chaps are in the same ball park on that one.

The Russian security forces have some of the largest military cyber warfare units in the world. Think of a modern army like a rugby team. There's plenty of positions for the tall athletic guys, and the fat beardy blokes.

[hidetheelephants]

isaldiri said:

Given the manifest lack of capability of the russians to takeover the whole of Ukraine, the supposed threat of russia to the major powers of nato is hardly so great that the Ukrainians absolutely need to be helped 'to win' (whatever that might mean). It's repeatedly pointed out here how incompetent the russian military is and how they are resorting to using antiquated kit - so exactly what is this overwhelming threat to western security that is so great? Especially given that we are content to let the ukranians do the fighting and dying to defend it rather than actually doing anything ourselves?

Consider it payback for all the fkaboutery perpetrated in the last 20 years; the Skripals, Litvinenko, any number of cyber attacks, numerous other bad acts by Russia or russian proxies.

[HM-2]

isaldiri said:

The US and the UK and all the rest have for years been entirely happy to let all manner of unpleasant things in a lot of places pass without particularly being too bothered.

Do you legitimately not understand the basic concept of rational self-interest, and that states are more likely to intervene in events that they judge pose a threat to their interests?

It's geopolitics 101.

[twister]

off_again said:

In fact, the Western assumption was that a modern Russian tank could withstand most of the lower powered anti-tank systems. Reality is that pretty much all of the Russian main battle tanks are vulnerable to pretty much everything (which is also concerning for Western tanks!).

Perhaps not as concerning, when you consider that a) we ought to have a pretty good idea how the armour used on our tanks would stand up against modern AT weaponry, given that we can easily test one against the other, and b) it's a reasonable presumption that our tank crews won't be selling off bits of their tanks protective systems to buy vodka... For sure, modern AT weaponry is fearsome, even against a top-spec Western design, but IMO at least some of the poor performance of the Russian tanks is down to our failing to appreciate just how poorly disciplined and unprofessional the Russian Army actually is.

[MOTORVATOR]

twister said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

Perhap spookly didn't read all the news articles. CNN are reporting the following.

"Advisers to President Biden have begun debating internally how and whether Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian "victory" -- adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly."

Of course that isn't yet US policy and it hasn't filtered up to the big cheeses, but we would be naive to believe the discussions are not currently ongoing behind the scenes, regardless of the set piece announcements.

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1541755...

I'm not so sure that article contradicts Spookly's comments - "debating how and whether", "adjusting for the possibility" - as it then goes onto note, it'd be naive to presume that such discussions around all the what-if scenarios wasn't taking place, not just in the US but within the halls of government for every nation currently providing support to Ukraine.

It shouldn't, as you seem to be doing here, be taken as an indication that the US are becoming less steadfast in their support for Ukraine, merely giving us all a useful reality check and reminding us that, despite what most of us dearly hope to see as the outcome of this war, nothing can or should be taken for granted, and making pre-emptive preparations for things not going our way is simply good planning. Once the Russian army is kicked back across the border, we can tear up all these alternative plans and rejoice with the Ukranians in their victory. Until then, let's just keep those plans safely tucked away in our back pockets, just in case it all goes to st and somehow Pootin manages to conjur up some sort of tactical masterstroke having lulled us all into a false sense of security by giving us the impression that he thinks tactics are those little minty sweets you get in clear plastic boxes...

As single CNN article in isolation doesn't give us much of an insight to a change of policy by Biden.

Try going back to a Feb / March article for comparison and all I can see is a steady hardening of stance from Biden not the walk back that Eddie is indicating may be occurring?

[McGee_22]

isaldiri said:

Given the manifest lack of capability of the russians to takeover the whole of Ukraine, the supposed threat of russia to the major powers of nato is hardly so great that the Ukrainians absolutely need to be helped 'to win' (whatever that might mean). It's repeatedly pointed out here how incompetent the russian military is and how they are resorting to using antiquated kit - so exactly what is this overwhelming threat to western security that is so great? Especially given that we are content to let the ukranians do the fighting and dying to defend it rather than actually doing anything ourselves?

This is disingenuous at best and idiotic at worst.

Ukraine would resist with all its strength without help from other countries but the entire country would look like Mariupol does now and millions would die in the process - is that what you are advocating?

As for the threat of Russia to NATO, it is purely based on the continued threat of Nuclear strikes - I don't think for one minute NATO Commanders think there would be a large scale incursion of land troops and artillery strikes into one inch of NATO members lands but while a lunatic such as Adolf Putin sits in the Kremlin nothing can be ruled out.

NATO has never once threatened Russia and has never once coerced country's to join in its alliance - they join of their own free will to achieve one aim - make the commitment to stand shoulder to shoulder with other countries to help each and everyone in the alliance ensure their own continued sovereignty.

Russia has never liked this as it simply like getting its own way with other Nations and using genocide as a tool to ensure Russian influence in ex-Soviet states.

Are you too blind to see that?

[isaldiri]

off_again said:

And as Spookly says - this doesnt get better. He's not going to change here. There is no magic outcome for Ukraine. If we allow Putin to succeed in Ukraine, who is it next? Bulgaria? Romania? Slovakia? And he has a massive Axe to grind against Poland too. Do we just let him take those countries too? And dont forget that he retains power, influence and control across a whole swath of 'countries to the south too....

As painful as it is, yes, there are probably more deserving people in the world - but in a world of limited budgets, the most pressing and relevant thing to focus on today is expansionism by force from Russia. It cannot be allowed to continue and it must be stopped.

For something that is supposedly so pressing and relevant to be focused on that cannot be allowed to continue and must be stopped, we're choosing a rather curious way to confront this vast threat to us since it's the ukrainians rather than us doing the fighting and dying.

I'm merely not as convinced as a few others that the US will necessarily continue to think it's worth the trouble given the lack of meaningful threat to them and that it will be in their interests to continue this whole mess at the current level of conflict intensity given the commodity and economic dislocations as the war drags on.

None of the actions taken that will actually stop any russian expansion by force ie increasing troop numbers and military forces on the eastern flank of Nato are dependent on continuing to support Ukraine whether that current support continues or if the ukranians are forced to seek some kind of holding ceasefire with territory as is or indeed even if they are abandoned to the tender mercies of Putin......

[off_again]

twister said:

off_again said:

In fact, the Western assumption was that a modern Russian tank could withstand most of the lower powered anti-tank systems. Reality is that pretty much all of the Russian main battle tanks are vulnerable to pretty much everything (which is also concerning for Western tanks!).

Perhaps not as concerning, when you consider that a) we ought to have a pretty good idea how the armour used on our tanks would stand up against modern AT weaponry, given that we can easily test one against the other, and b) it's a reasonable presumption that our tank crews won't be selling off bits of their tanks protective systems to buy vodka... For sure, modern AT weaponry is fearsome, even against a top-spec Western design, but IMO at least some of the poor performance of the Russian tanks is down to our failing to appreciate just how poorly disciplined and unprofessional the Russian Army actually is.

Mm, thats fair....

And dont forget that much of the protective systems and reactive armor that have been fitted to newer Russian tanks just doesnt work. Additionally, the Russians keep fitting cope cages in the misguided attempt to give themselves additional protection, yeah, I dont hold much hope for them.

And on the selling off of protective systems - did you see that there seems to be a lot of evidence of some of the tanks with the reactive protective armor was swapped to containing sand? Many of the advance deployed modern tanks that were sent to attack Kiev had the later systems and reactive amor. The Ukrainians found a lot of the destroyed tanks had the reactive stuff replaced with sand!

[EddieSteadyGo]

MOTORVATOR said:

As single CNN article in isolation doesn't give us much of an insight to a change of policy by Biden.

...

To be fair, my point is really that the "commitment" isn't as firm as some would believe, mainly because I believe it isn't based on principles or values, but rather on a calculation of current self-interest. And that *likely* could change over the course of the next few months imo. So when we have CNN now reporting that Biden's advisors are discussing exactly that prospect, right now, even during the Nato summit, and leaking that discussion to the press, I don't think what I'm saying is unfounded.

[HM-2]

isaldiri said:

given the commodity and economic dislocations as the war drags on.

Repeating this ad nauseum doesn't make it more true, you know. The more the conflict extends, the more things in the West will normalise as the initial shock dissipates.

[BikeBikeBIke]

isaldiri said:

Given the manifest lack of capability of the russians to takeover the whole of Ukraine, the supposed threat of russia to the major powers of nato is hardly so great that the Ukrainians absolutely need to be helped

If we let him take Ukraine next time the Ukranian army will be fighting on his side.

They invaded Ukraine, they're openly saying they want to nuke, well everywhere, they're openly stating the next countries on their shopping list. (Just as Hitler told us he was going to go East in Mein Kampf.)

Plus he has nukes. (and you're one of the leading advocates of the idea he's actually willing to use them.)

Russia's neighbours are queuing up to help Ukraine. We should trust their view on Russia's future plans.