Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[jtremlett]

BikeBikeBIke said:

pingu393 said:

It's the determination of "the West" to continue to support sanctions, but more importantly, to continue to supply the relevant materiel that will determine the outcome of this war.

Russia WILL run out of missiles, aircraft and tanks before Ukraine, but only if "the West" keeps supplying the right kind of materiel and has a stomach for the fight. Ukraine has the stomach for this fight, but do we?

How much pain is "the West" prepared to suffer before it says "Enough"? Higher taxes to pay for arms. Higher prices to pay for food and fuel.

I fear that Putin, or his successor, will win because we don't think we can afford to have the thermostat at 21C over winter, or that 3 is too much for a loaf of bread, or that 3 per litre is too much for think petrol.

Personally, I think we'll be surprised by our own commitment as we have been throughout. We need to reduce our dependency on fossil fuels *anyway* and it's not a hard sell - we're being threatened with nukes every other day, we'd be insane to give Russia the ability to buy more nukes.

I think the UK government's commitment (on our behalf) has rightly been very strong (notwithstanding the shameful mess of the visa scheme).

On the other hand, you have Macron trying to give away Ukrainian territory to enhance his own ego and the German government basically funding Putin.

I saw yesterday the German's have confirmed they are sending 15 Gepards but they won't arrive until July! Are they sending them via the North Pole or what?

[CarlosFandango11]

craigjm said:

pquinn said:

hidetheelephants said:

craigjm said:

sisu said:

They are alot more agile than any NATO or other military at the moment. The US takes 60 minutes to get authorisation, the Russians are quick at 40 minutes and the Ukrainians take just 3.

Authorisation for what?

Artillery fire; because US/UK/NATO/etc has been fighting insurgencies not killing civilians has been prioritised, which slows the decision loop. Ukraine do not have big brother in the loop so the big gun goes boom faster.

Basically they're quicker not because they're better, or have worked out some wonderful new doctrine, they're just not so bothered about what they're shooting at being a problem so the yes/no is fast.

Bet the Russians have a quick process too in the same areas.

Exactly. They are having to adopt a gorilla approach to their activity because of the position they are in. It doesn’t really matter what they hit.

I expect that Russia don’t care what they hit either. And yet Ukraine are much quicker than them. Hence they’re doing something a lot quicker because they’re a lot better in some way.

[anonymous-user]

Ukraine are definitely winning the propaganda war.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tanks-enter-kyiv-...

3 months ago who would have predicted an abstract display of wrecked military vehicles in a City once under siege, now tourists are taking photo's!

The goat one must especially piss the Russians off.

[pingu393]

digimeistter said:

Ukraine are definitely winning the propaganda war.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tanks-enter-kyiv-...

3 months ago who would have predicted an abstract display of wrecked military vehicles in a City once under siege, now tourists are taking photo's!

The goat one must especially piss the Russians off.

Greatest Of All Time

[S17Thumper]

[craigjm]

digimeistter said:

Ukraine are definitely winning the propaganda war.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tanks-enter-kyiv-...

3 months ago who would have predicted an abstract display of wrecked military vehicles in a City once under siege, now tourists are taking photo's!

The goat one must especially piss the Russians off.

I wonder what the Russians are feeding to their own population

[768]

They should keep them on display. A la Amna Suraka. I doubt the significance will dwindle for some time.

[Ridgemont]

pingu393 said:

It's the determination of "the West" to continue to support sanctions, but more importantly, to continue to supply the relevant materiel that will determine the outcome of this war.

Russia WILL run out of missiles, aircraft and tanks before Ukraine, but only if "the West" keeps supplying the right kind of materiel and has a stomach for the fight. Ukraine has the stomach for this fight, but do we?

How much pain is "the West" prepared to suffer before it says "Enough"? Higher taxes to pay for arms. Higher prices to pay for food and fuel.

I fear that Putin, or his successor, will win because we don't think we can afford to have the thermostat at 21C over winter, or that 3 is too much for a loaf of bread, or that 3 per litre is too much for petrol.

Well it appears that someone in Washington (‘hello Mr Kissinger is that you?’) is pushing for a row back in terms of the strength of support for the Ukranians:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/22/...

It seems the NYT has an article in it from the paper’s editorial board arguing that Ukraine’s expectations about rolling back to 2014 and not conceding some sovereignty as per Minsk (ie the Donbas) is unreasonable and that the US gov ought to be pushing for Zelensky to get real…

I can’t see the article on their heavily paywalled site but apparently it has kicked off a real stink in Kyiv.

[saaby93]

Ridgemont said:

Well it appears that someone in Washington (‘hello Mr Kissinger is that you?’) is pushing for a row back in terms of the strength of support for the Ukranians:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/22/...

It seems the NYT has an article in it from the paper’s editorial board arguing that Ukraine’s expectations about rolling back to 2014 and not conceding some sovereignty as per Minsk (ie the Donbas) is unreasonable and that the US gov ought to be pushing for Zelensky to get real…

I can’t see the article on their heavily paywalled site but apparently it has kicked off a real stink in Kyiv.

That ties in with what one of the Baltic states leaders was saying
Russia will claim 100% of something that isnt theirs
Big argument
Western country says to Russia would you accept 20% or 50% to save argument
Russia says ' thanks very much'

[hidetheelephants]

Ridgemont said:

pingu393 said:

It's the determination of "the West" to continue to support sanctions, but more importantly, to continue to supply the relevant materiel that will determine the outcome of this war.

Russia WILL run out of missiles, aircraft and tanks before Ukraine, but only if "the West" keeps supplying the right kind of materiel and has a stomach for the fight. Ukraine has the stomach for this fight, but do we?

How much pain is "the West" prepared to suffer before it says "Enough"? Higher taxes to pay for arms. Higher prices to pay for food and fuel.

I fear that Putin, or his successor, will win because we don't think we can afford to have the thermostat at 21C over winter, or that 3 is too much for a loaf of bread, or that 3 per litre is too much for petrol.

Well it appears that someone in Washington (‘hello Mr Kissinger is that you?’) is pushing for a row back in terms of the strength of support for the Ukranians:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/22/...

It seems the NYT has an article in it from the paper’s editorial board arguing that Ukraine’s expectations about rolling back to 2014 and not conceding some sovereignty as per Minsk (ie the Donbas) is unreasonable and that the US gov ought to be pushing for Zelensky to get real…

I can’t see the article on their heavily paywalled site but apparently it has kicked off a real stink in Kyiv.

I read it, it's patronising and tendentiously states the blindingly obvious, not really anything to get very exercised about and should be ignored.

[jtremlett]

saaby93 said:

Ridgemont said:

Well it appears that someone in Washington (‘hello Mr Kissinger is that you?’) is pushing for a row back in terms of the strength of support for the Ukranians:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/22/...

It seems the NYT has an article in it from the paper’s editorial board arguing that Ukraine’s expectations about rolling back to 2014 and not conceding some sovereignty as per Minsk (ie the Donbas) is unreasonable and that the US gov ought to be pushing for Zelensky to get real…

I can’t see the article on their heavily paywalled site but apparently it has kicked off a real stink in Kyiv.

That ties in with what one of the Baltic states leaders was saying
Russia will claim 100% of something that isnt theirs
Big argument
Western country says to Russia would you accept 20% or 50% to save argument
Russia says ' thanks very much'

Whatever happens, Russia has laid waste to large parts of Ukraine and committed untold war crimes. There should be no question they should end up with a whole lot less than they started with.

[MOTORVATOR]

saaby93 said:

Ridgemont said:

Well it appears that someone in Washington (‘hello Mr Kissinger is that you?’) is pushing for a row back in terms of the strength of support for the Ukranians:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/22/...

It seems the NYT has an article in it from the paper’s editorial board arguing that Ukraine’s expectations about rolling back to 2014 and not conceding some sovereignty as per Minsk (ie the Donbas) is unreasonable and that the US gov ought to be pushing for Zelensky to get real…

I can’t see the article on their heavily paywalled site but apparently it has kicked off a real stink in Kyiv.

That ties in with what one of the Baltic states leaders was saying
Russia will claim 100% of something that isnt theirs
Big argument
Western country says to Russia would you accept 20% or 50% to save argument
Russia says ' thanks very much'

Totally agree. US should give Alaska to Russia but tell them in no uncertain terms that California is staying put to save any future argument..

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/...

[TTmonkey]

[craigjm]

jtremlett said:

hatever happens, Russia has laid waste to large parts of Ukraine and committed untold war crimes. There should be no question they should end up with a whole lot less than they started with.

I guess the problem is how does Russia sell that as a success. I’m not convinced they will be willing to be put into a position where they will basically have to admit they have been defeated. It’s hard to see a way out without Putin kicking the bucket.

[Porsche guy]

jtremlett said:

hatever happens, Russia has laid waste to large parts of Ukraine and committed untold war crimes. There should be no question they should end up with a whole lot less than they started with.

Plus, pay for all the Ukraine infrastructure they've destroyed

[EddieSteadyGo]

craigjm said:

jtremlett said:

hatever happens, Russia has laid waste to large parts of Ukraine and committed untold war crimes. There should be no question they should end up with a whole lot less than they started with.

I guess the problem is how does Russia sell that as a success. I’m not convinced they will be willing to be put into a position where they will basically have to admit they have been defeated. It’s hard to see a way out without Putin kicking the bucket.

I think unfortunately it is more complicated than that. Putin can sell pretty much any agreement as a success to his domestic audience.

In terms of territory, whilst it isn't popular to say, I've posted previously I thought any agreement will eventually involve some concessions on the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. In reality, if Putin had narrowed his ambitions to just those two areas, there likely wouldn't even be a war right now.

But as it stands, with the lend lease programme now being approved, Zelensky is (rightly) likely to conclude now is a bad time to compromise. The relative strength of the UA should start to improve over the next few weeks, which should give a better negotiating position in the future, assuming it doesn't suffer any major defeats between now and then.

The problem for Putin is, if he was just fighting Ukraine, he might be inclined to just annex all of the territory they currently occupy (as per the ISW analysis from last week). However, that is likely to result in his foreign reserves being locked out of his reach in perpetuity and probably the most damaging sanctions remaining in place. Which means any eventual deal does need to take account of the US willingness to accept any deal, as Putin needs not just an agreement with Ukraine, but an agreement with the US to get their reserves back under Russian control, and some kind of agreement on the tapering of sanctions.

So in addition to the human tragedy of the war, Putin has got himself into an unwinnable game of 4d chess.

[FourWheelDrift]

TTmonkey said:

David Attenborough - "Here we see the drones in their natural habitat, making a nest, the male and female both get involved in building the nest using what they can find in the immediate vicinity, T-72, BMP even Su-35 parts can be foraged. Then in just a short few days we may hear the buzz of tiny drones, and thus the circle continues"

[CrutyRammers]

The ukr government saying very clearly that their aim is a return of all their territory to how it was in 1991, and there is no negotiating with Russia while they still aim to take more territory. Obviously people take positions harder than they expect, but there is clearly no mood to compromise right now.

[CrutyRammers]

craigjm said:

jtremlett said:

hatever happens, Russia has laid waste to large parts of Ukraine and committed untold war crimes. There should be no question they should end up with a whole lot less than they started with.

I guess the problem is how does Russia sell that as a success. I’m not convinced they will be willing to be put into a position where they will basically have to admit they have been defeated. It’s hard to see a way out without Putin kicking the bucket.

The thing with defeat is, you don't have to be willing about it.
They lost in Chechnya the first time didn't they?

[pingu393]

CrutyRammers said:

The ukr government saying very clearly that their aim is a return of all their territory to how it was in 1991, and there is no negotiating with Russia while they still aim to take more territory. Obviously people take positions harder than they expect, but there is clearly no mood to compromise right now.

They forgot to mention...

"and all our nuclear weapons returned"