If Britain rejoined the EU tomorrow…

If Britain rejoined the EU tomorrow…

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Vanden Saab

14,082 posts

74 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
heebeegeetee said:
crankedup5 said:
We have full employment and if you have a look around you will see the ‘real World’ wages for low paid are certainly increasing. The problem we have atm is labour shortage, hence employers offering higher rates in each sector in an attempt to attract labour.
Try to respond without the childish remarks maybe.
We do indeed have full employment, and record numbers of job vacancies, with difficulties filling them.

I think workers are right to ask for increased pay, not only because of inflation but simply market forces, their value has increased. With employers unwilling to pay, it looks like we're in for some months of chaos.

A chap in this article reckons he had 8,000 EU applicants that he had to reject, a far higher percentage than previously.

The Guardian: ‘What have we done?’: six years on, UK counts the cost of Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/25/w...
That is fascinating, the chap is EasyJet CEO. EasyJet have 13,000 staff according to what I can see and are claiming to reject 35% because of 'Brexit' issues. So a firm with 13,000 employees had around 24,000 applicants for jobs...



crankedup5

9,609 posts

35 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
It’s been said a thousand times, it is far to early to judge the merits of leaving the EU.Just three years since the deed was completed, then an almost immeadiate two year Global close down which we are just about out of now. Sure problems in trade are obvious and need fixing.
The most obvious tangible brexit benefit is full employment and employers now coming to the conclusion that the days of exploitation of labour are over.The unending flow of that Eastern European labour was good for employers, less so for indigenous labour.
Workers being paid a decent wage, now that’s a novel thought.

roger.mellie

4,640 posts

52 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
crankedup5 said:
It’s been said a thousand times, it is far to early to judge the merits of leaving the EU.Just three years since the deed was completed, then an almost immeadiate two year Global close down which we are just about out of now. Sure problems in trade are obvious and need fixing.
The most obvious tangible brexit benefit is full employment and employers now coming to the conclusion that the days of exploitation of labour are over.The unending flow of that Eastern European labour was good for employers, less so for indigenous labour.
Workers being paid a decent wage, now that’s a novel thought.
Haven’t read the thread at all but I’m assuming that means you support the RMT strike. The days of exploitation of labour are not remotely over and the EU wasn’t the enemy on that one.

The UK has pretty much always had full employment since governmental statistical manipulation was allowed. An over supply of jobs for an under supply of workers is not a brexit bonus. It’s hard to separate out the brexit effect e.g. all airports across the EU are having staffing problems due to them being s and sacking people during the pandemic lockdowns but UK airports are struggling more than their peers to re-recruit due to brexit, as are uk airlines. Is that a brexit problem or a corporate problem? Could be taken either way depending on bias.


crankedup5

9,609 posts

35 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
roger.mellie said:
crankedup5 said:
It’s been said a thousand times, it is far to early to judge the merits of leaving the EU.Just three years since the deed was completed, then an almost immeadiate two year Global close down which we are just about out of now. Sure problems in trade are obvious and need fixing.
The most obvious tangible brexit benefit is full employment and employers now coming to the conclusion that the days of exploitation of labour are over.The unending flow of that Eastern European labour was good for employers, less so for indigenous labour.
Workers being paid a decent wage, now that’s a novel thought.
Haven’t read the thread at all but I’m assuming that means you support the RMT strike. The days of exploitation of labour are not remotely over and the EU wasn’t the enemy on that one.

The UK has pretty much always had full employment since governmental statistical manipulation was allowed. An over supply of jobs for an under supply of workers is not a brexit bonus. It’s hard to separate out the brexit effect e.g. all airports across the EU are having staffing problems due to them being s and sacking people during the pandemic lockdowns but UK airports are struggling more than their peers to re-recruit due to brexit, as are uk airlines. Is that a brexit problem or a corporate problem? Could be taken either way depending on bias.
Labour exploitation was always a fact of life when an unlimited supply of E.European workers were able to take advantage of open access into the U.K.
Our brexit has stifled over supply of cheap labour and given the opportunity for improved labour rates as businesses seek and compete for workers.
Focus on the airline industry is simply a snapshot of the wider implications for many industry sectors which has yet to adjust to the new labour availability restriction. If you want labour it has to be paid for a a fair rate.

DeejRC

5,793 posts

82 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
Point of order on the REACH stuff, due to the way REACH works wrt chemicals going on the list, the sunset dates, exemptions, etc...the discussion earlier was largely incorrect.

Some of us *do* have to deal with REACH regs, the nasty crap on them and the planning and qualification of new replacement chemical and their applications within an engineering environment.

Hands up anyone still having to deal with hexavalent chromium?

DeejRC

5,793 posts

82 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
mike9009 said:
If we rejoined tomorrow we could have an influence on the regulations surrounding aircraft design, production and maintenance which EuASA are changing in March 2023. (Changes to part 21 regulations, which in reality seem quite sensible on the face of it).

However, we will just sit back and be a rule taker rather than a rule maker. Sovereignty rules! smile

Edited by mike9009 on Friday 24th June 22:43
Mike, are you in the industry?

Mortarboard

5,711 posts

55 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
DeejRC said:
Point of order on the REACH stuff, due to the way REACH works wrt chemicals going on the list, the sunset dates, exemptions, etc...the discussion earlier was largely incorrect.

Some of us *do* have to deal with REACH regs, the nasty crap on them and the planning and qualification of new replacement chemical and their applications within an engineering environment.

Hands up anyone still having to deal with hexavalent chromium?
Me. But then again, our chemical catalogue has 30 million SKUs wink

REACH can get eye-wateringly expensive if you're the sole registrar. One material we used to make in the UK cost us $800k upfront to register.

M.

Ivan stewart

2,792 posts

36 months

Monday 27th June 2022
quotequote all
heebeegeetee said:
We do indeed have full employment, and record numbers of job vacancies, with difficulties filling them.

I think workers are right to ask for increased pay, not only because of inflation but simply market forces, their value has increased. With employers unwilling to pay, it looks like we're in for some months of chaos.

A chap in this article reckons he had 8,000 EU applicants that he had to reject, a far higher percentage than previously.

The Guardian: ‘What have we done?’: six years on, UK counts the cost of Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/25/w...
The guardian !! Thanks!!!!
that nasty destructive rag .. more conformation if it was needed Brexit was 100% the right thing to do …

heebeegeetee

28,736 posts

248 months

Monday 27th June 2022
quotequote all
Ivan stewart said:
The guardian !! Thanks!!!!
that nasty destructive rag .. more conformation if it was needed Brexit was 100% the right thing to do …
Wow. You mean, unlike the Sun, Express, Mail, Telegraph, which have been feeding utterly negative stories on the EU for 45 years?

Yeah, I guess if you're just not constantly bashing Johnny Foreigner, it must be destructive.

If Brexit was 100% the right thing to do Ivan, what difference should I have noticed by now? If it's 100%, any improvements to our daily lives must be noticeable.


roger.mellie

4,640 posts

52 months

Monday 27th June 2022
quotequote all
heebeegeetee said:
Ivan stewart said:
The guardian !! Thanks!!!!
that nasty destructive rag .. more conformation if it was needed Brexit was 100% the right thing to do …
Wow. You mean, unlike the Sun, Express, Mail, Telegraph, which have been feeding utterly negative stories on the EU for 45 years?

Yeah, I guess if you're just not constantly bashing Johnny Foreigner, it must be destructive.

If Brexit was 100% the right thing to do Ivan, what difference should I have noticed by now? If it's 100%, any improvements to our daily lives must be noticeable.
Was going to reply similarly but now you have I'll just agree. Attack the source rather than attack the topic is modus operandi for Ivan and pretend obliviousness to much worse sources.

I'm never sure when to take Ivan seriously. I'm pretty sure he's self aware, he's a good source of comedy value comments but once in a while he goes too far.

The UK is not rejoining, it hasn't a mission on that, but thankfully those looking for traitors to the cause like oul Ivan are not in charge.


ClaphamGT3

11,300 posts

243 months

Monday 27th June 2022
quotequote all
heebeegeetee said:
Murph7355 said:
Quit being lazy and get yourself visas if it's important enough.

You don't need sledgehammer measures to look after yourself.
So as part of our taking back control, we'd be the only Europeans (apart from Ukrainians and Russians presumably) to totally lose the freedom to travel as we wish?

From what I've read, visas are a 3 month process. If their efficiency is anything like our passport offices, anything like our bureaucratic efficiency, we're stuffed.

I am amazed at how much freedoms you guys are happy to surrender, truly amazed. And for what? Just to be able to say the word "sovereignty"?

It was an exercise in giving up rights they took for granted in order to be free of restrictions that they completely imagined that historians will study in bafflement for centuries to come

Ivan stewart

2,792 posts

36 months

Monday 27th June 2022
quotequote all
ClaphamGT3 said:
It was an exercise in giving up rights they took for granted in order to be free of restrictions that they completely imagined that historians will study in bafflement for centuries to come
They would I guess try to understand what would the EU have morphed into if it hadn’t had anyone questioning the direction of travel and said no thanks we will have our independence thanks…

InitialDave

11,901 posts

119 months

Monday 27th June 2022
quotequote all
Evanivitch said:
Digga said:
I’m not though.

Your assertion that Brexit was binary is false. Many, on both sides, were deeply conflicted. Many too, felt it was a question that should not have been asked, a choice they were forced into making.

Only fools are dogmatically certain.

“What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so.”
Only tools that can read a binary ballot paper? Perhaps you need to remember the options we were given? laugh
But that ties into his point.

Yes, we were given a binary ballot, in or out, with no further detail on what either of those results would truly entail.

It was left to the individual to assess what they thought each would lead to, and vote accordingly.

People who voted leave did not necessarily hate everything about the EU, people who voted remain did not necessarily love everything about it.

The absolutist nutters on either end of the spectrum are a small minority.

DeejRC

5,793 posts

82 months

Monday 27th June 2022
quotequote all
Mortarboard said:
DeejRC said:
Point of order on the REACH stuff, due to the way REACH works wrt chemicals going on the list, the sunset dates, exemptions, etc...the discussion earlier was largely incorrect.

Some of us *do* have to deal with REACH regs, the nasty crap on them and the planning and qualification of new replacement chemical and their applications within an engineering environment.

Hands up anyone still having to deal with hexavalent chromium?
Me. But then again, our chemical catalogue has 30 million SKUs wink

REACH can get eye-wateringly expensive if you're the sole registrar. One material we used to make in the UK cost us $800k upfront to register.

M.
REACH can get pissing expensive if you are the poor sod having to qualify a replacement … frown

Evanivitch

20,075 posts

122 months

Monday 27th June 2022
quotequote all
DeejRC said:
Point of order on the REACH stuff, due to the way REACH works wrt chemicals going on the list, the sunset dates, exemptions, etc...the discussion earlier was largely incorrect.

Some of us *do* have to deal with REACH regs, the nasty crap on them and the planning and qualification of new replacement chemical and their applications within an engineering environment.

Hands up anyone still having to deal with hexavalent chromium?
You're looking at the chemical level, I'm looking at it from a product implementation into a system. Thus the whole of the legislation has to be considered with respect to product compliance.

And yes, Hexavalent Chromium was a pain, and repeating environmental qualification on several products was very expensive.

Murph7355

37,714 posts

256 months

Monday 27th June 2022
quotequote all
InitialDave said:
...

The absolutist nutters on either end of the spectrum are a small minority.
You are spot on.

The bafflement comes from wondering how PH cornered the market at both ends biggrin

DeejRC

5,793 posts

82 months

Monday 27th June 2022
quotequote all
Evanivitch said:
DeejRC said:
Point of order on the REACH stuff, due to the way REACH works wrt chemicals going on the list, the sunset dates, exemptions, etc...the discussion earlier was largely incorrect.

Some of us *do* have to deal with REACH regs, the nasty crap on them and the planning and qualification of new replacement chemical and their applications within an engineering environment.

Hands up anyone still having to deal with hexavalent chromium?
You're looking at the chemical level, I'm looking at it from a product implementation into a system. Thus the whole of the legislation has to be considered with respect to product compliance.

And yes, Hexavalent Chromium was a pain, and repeating environmental qualification on several products was very expensive.
No, I really am not. I deal with products, not chemicals.I just have to deal with certain coatings on certain products AND have to deal EU and the UK and certain jumped up supranational authorities.

Mortarboard

5,711 posts

55 months

Monday 27th June 2022
quotequote all
DeejRC said:
No, I really am not. I deal with products, not chemicals.I just have to deal with certain coatings on certain products AND have to deal EU and the UK and certain jumped up supranational authorities.
Oh joy. I had to have a conversation with the Irish EPA during one of their pushes to reduce solvents in coatings. I told then I'd gladly use water based paint, if it could last 30 years on metal in the Atlantic without maintenance.Took a could of times for the word "no" to sink in. (Was fir offshore wind farms)

M.

DeltonaS

3,707 posts

138 months

Monday 27th June 2022
quotequote all
https://fd.nl/economie/1443179/de-balans-van-zes-j...

The balance of six years of Brexit: real damage and trivial benefits

Six years after the EU referendum, the economic damage of Brexit is clearly visible. However, thanks to the departure from the EU, the British can pursue their own immigration and sanctions policy. Yet a fundamental idea of ​​what Brexit actually served is still missing. It is already being called the 'summer of discontent', a reference to the very violent strikes during the 'winter of discontent' in the 1970s. On the sixth anniversary of the Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom is under the spell of the largest train strike in thirty year, which has shut down public transport in the country for the entire week. In London, subway workers were also on strike, while bus drivers in Yorkshire were on strike. Teachers and nurses also threaten to stop working.

Everyone wants more pay to keep up with skyrocketing inflation: Britain's currency depreciation was found to have reached 9.1% on Wednesday, the highest level in 40 years and the highest level in the G7. There are all kinds of reasons for this, which certainly do not only affect the United Kingdom. The pandemic, disrupted supply chains, the war in Ukraine. But the British are grappling with a unique additional factor: the legacy of Brexit.

Thursday will be exactly six years ago that the British chose to leave the European Union. The anniversary comes at a time when the negative effects of Brexit on the economy are clearly being felt.

Driving test? In 2023
There are long lines everywhere. Trucks waiting for Dover are a familiar sight. Just like at Schiphol, there is chaos at British airports. Applying for a new passport takes at least three months. The courts are struggling with enormous backlogs, GP appointments cannot be made and hospitals cannot meet the demand. Waiting times in the emergency department are up to 13 hours. Driving exams can be booked again from 2023.

'Why isn't anything working in Britain anymore?' asked The Sunday Times. The answer is, of course, much broader than Brexit. Austerity, the decade of harsh austerity following the financial crisis, has eroded public services. The pandemic added to that, especially for healthcare. The British government is rudderless and has no idea how to improve the lack of productivity in the British regions. But Brexit is exacerbating all of these problems, as the supply of workers has been drastically reduced and companies are spending much more time and money on the new trade barriers that have been erected.

Although the effects of Brexit and the pandemic are intertwined, a good picture is now emerging of the economic consequences of leaving the EU. According to the budget watchdog Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK economy is 4% worse off in the long run than it would have been if it had stayed in the EU. That equates to roughly £100bn a year and £40bn in tax revenues. About half of that damage is yet to come.

Less investment and trade
In the meantime, the pound has lost 10% permanently since the referendum. That did not really lead to more exports, but to more inflation. The Center for Economic Policy concluded in 2018 that consumer prices were 2.9% higher due to Brexit, without wages rising.

Other victims are business investment, which has not increased since the referendum. The pandemic has even brought a setback, but where other G7 countries have recovered, the UK is stuck at a lower level. Compared to six years ago, business investment in the US is up 23%, with France and Italy just behind. The UK stands at -8.4%.

Since the end of the transition period on December 31, 2020, trade has also been affected. At the end of 2021, imports from Europe were 18% lower than in 2019, according to figures from the OBR. Just 10% more was imported from the rest of the world.

Exports to Europe held up better, although there was still a 9% drop, without British exporters being able to sell more goods to the rest of the world. The London School of Economics found that the number of trade relations with other EU countries has fallen by a third. The picture for the service sector is still difficult to make due to the pandemic.

Not first past Orbán
But for many Britons, Brexit was not about economic arguments at all. The UK now has its own immigration policy and has regained control of its borders. Prime Minister Johnson can declare sanctions against Russia without having to negotiate with Viktor Orban first. In this way, the exit from the EU is a success. Trade deals can be made with other countries, as has already happened with Australia and New Zealand. Only the dreamed deal with the US remains out of reach for the time being.

The question remains, however, what the British government wants to do with the new Brexit freedom. Test balloons are being blown about relaxed rules for genetic modification of crops and about adapting Solvency II, so that insurers can invest more in the British infrastructure.

Trivial Benefits
But a fundamental idea of ​​what Brexit is for is missing. Instead, Johnson's government is chasing trivial benefits: the reintroduction of imperial measures, the return of the crown on pint glasses. The minister of 'Brexit opportunities' recently drew up a list of nine Brexit priorities. It includes, for example, more powerful vacuum cleaners (number 2), an end to EU restrictions on the power of e-bikes (number 5) and the simplification of the calculation of holiday pay (number 8).

They aren't exactly reasons to ease the pain of high inflation and ubiquitous queues. According to YouGov, 60% of Britons now say that the government is not doing well on Brexit. No one wants to undo Brexit, but the number of people who see Brexit as a mistake is slowly growing. That is now 49%, against 37% who still support the choice for 'leave'.

Of all G20 economies, the UK will only be behind sanctions-hit Russia next year, the OECD thinks. That summer 'discontent' could therefore just last until winter.

Another setback for Johnson?
On Thursday, not all the attention in the United Kingdom will be focused on Brexit. There are also crucial by-elections for two lower house seats, which could end in a nosebleed for Johnson's Conservative Party. Both polls have an embarrassing reason for the Tories, because two party members had to give up their seats because of various forms of sexual misconduct. Neil Parish, of the southern district of Tiverton and Honiton, had to resign for watching erotic videos in the House of Commons room (he says a search for a tractor had accidentally led him to a porn site). Imran Khan of northern Wakefield was convicted of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy in 2008. Though both elections are primarily seen as a referendum on Boris Johnson's popularity following the Downing Street lockdown parties scandal. Wakefield is one of the traditional Labor districts that Johnson managed to conquer in 2019. Now Labor is on track for victory. Tiverton and Honiton is in the heartland of the Tories. The party had a large majority, but the Liberal Democrats can now win.

Blue62

8,864 posts

152 months

Monday 27th June 2022
quotequote all
ClaphamGT3 said:
It was an exercise in giving up rights they took for granted in order to be free of restrictions that they completely imagined that historians will study in bafflement for centuries to come
It’s surely too early to judge, only the other day the great Rees-Mogg announced that we can change the confusing signage inside the Dartford Tunnel now, along with fish fingers it’s another big win.

I am interested in the argument around wages though, it’s hard to wade through the data but we have almost 10m people of working age claims benefits while we have record employment, so maybe not everyone is seeing this upturn in earnings.

You seem to have connections from what you’ve posted previously, I’ve got three old Uni mates who are sitting MPs and none of them think the EU would have us back, one is a Brexit Tory the other two are Lab. I do wonder how Boris copes during his regular PR chats with Zelensky when the subject of joining the eu comes up!