Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)

[crankedup5]

France and Germany are doing oh so well, at some point the EU debt mountain will have to be addressed, fortunately we are no longer part of that.

[Kermit power]

Mortarboard said:

bad company said:

There was a referendum and the vote was out. Since then we’ve had a major pandemic and there’s a European war so nobody really knows if we’d be better or worse off still I the EU.

Au contraire. The comparison of trade intensity figures negates both of those issues.

Which is why some folk in here as so desperate to ignore any negative evidence.

M.

Trade intensity with whom, and compared to whom?

The info provided so far in this thread made me question my understanding of the term, so I had to go away and double-check.

As it turned out, I was right in thinking it to be a term showing how strong trade is between chosen source countries or regions and a destination country or region relative to their size, so a trade intensity figure on its own is meaningless.

I'm assuming that you were trying to compare the trade intensity of the UK with the likes of France or Germany? To what destination market were you comparing it though?

Has the UK's trade intensity for trade to France increased relative to Germany's since Brexit?

Has our trade intensity for trade to sub-Saharan Africa decreased relative to Italy's since 2010?

I'd like to see the numbers, but I'd also question the assertion that they truly negate the impact of Covid and Ukraine, as different countries' handling of Covid varied, with varying impact on their economies, and different countries also had differing levels of exposure to risk from, say, reliance on Ukranian grain or Russian oil, which again will have had a knock on effect.

[Deesee]

@kermit power

Values here..

From and too UK..

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/ba...







Section 7 you can drop down and select countries, UK in and UK out worldwide.

Also

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-...











World wide imports from 6th in world to 4th World wide exports from 6th in world to 5th in world.

Hope this helps, I’ll find an EC one later on today.

There’s various EC/ROW split out of numbers on both links too.

Well on track for trillion £ exports by 2030.

[Mortarboard]

Kermit power said:

Trade intensity with whom, and compared to whom?

Trade intensity is the amount of a country's import amd export trade expressed as a percentage of gdp.

While it can also be used for regions or specific country trade (for example, now that the UK has a trade deal with Japan, trade intensity with japan should show whether trade has increased etc)

But when asking "how has brexit affected uk trade", total trade intensity is appropriate. Trade viability can, and often is, greatly affected by local trade. Notwithstanding the fact that brexit hardly made non-eu trade easier

Kermit power said:

The info provided so far in this thread made me question my understanding of the term, so I had to go away and double-check.

As it turned out, I was right in thinking it to be a term showing how strong trade is between chosen source countries or regions and a destination country or region relative to their size, so a trade intensity figure on its own is meaningless.

The trade intensity figures quoted and referred to are total, and compared to the trade intensity figures for the G7 countries.

Somw Brexiters find this particularly vexatious, as it negates the excuse about "you can't tell what brexit, covid or Ukraine related". The trade intensity comparison negates covid and ukr effects.

M.

[bad company]

redback911 said:

Brexit. The gift that keeps on giving, trade barriers.

Edited by redback911 on Monday 4th March 07:39

Because it’s been mismanaged.

[Vanden Saab]

Deesee said:

@kermit power

Values here..

From and too UK..

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/ba...







Section 7 you can drop down and select countries, UK in and UK out worldwide.

Also

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-...











World wide imports from 6th in world to 4th World wide exports from 6th in world to 5th in world.

Hope this helps, I’ll find an EC one later on today.

There’s various EC/ROW split out of numbers on both links too.

Well on track for trillion £ exports by 2030.

And a good explainer here...
https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/tax/articles...

Basically M. and remainers in the media have jumped on the only negative figure left from the last couple of years and are desperately trying to blame it on Brexit
Amusing to watch really

[Mortarboard]

Vanden Saab said:

And a good explainer here...
https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/tax/articles...

Basically M. and remainers in the media have jumped on the only negative figure left from the last couple of years and are desperately trying to blame it on Brexit
Amusing to watch really

Le sigh.

See the energy figures with 3 figures? Ukr related, for example.

That's why trade intensity can be used to show the effects of the only differentiator, brexit.

It's not rocket science.

M.

[Vanden Saab]

Mortarboard said:

Vanden Saab said:

And a good explainer here...
https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/tax/articles...

Basically M. and remainers in the media have jumped on the only negative figure left from the last couple of years and are desperately trying to blame it on Brexit
Amusing to watch really

Le sigh.

See the energy figures with 3 figures? Ukr related, for example.

That's why trade intensity can be used to show the effects of the only differentiator, brexit.

It's not rocket science.

M.

Apart from the whole point of the piece which says it is impossible to differentiate...
But derp derp figures 3 energy....that proves it
Hilarious that you have completely ignored everything they are saying.

[turbobloke]

Vanden Saab said:

Mortarboard said:

Vanden Saab said:

And a good explainer here...
https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/tax/articles...

Basically M. and remainers in the media have jumped on the only negative figure left from the last couple of years and are desperately trying to blame it on Brexit
Amusing to watch really

Le sigh.

See the energy figures with 3 figures? Ukr related, for example.

That's why trade intensity can be used to show the effects of the only differentiator, brexit.

It's not rocket science.

M.

Apart from the whole point of the piece which says it is impossible to differentiate...
But derp derp figures 3 energy....that proves it
Hilarious that you have completely ignored everything they are saying.

But par for the course.

[Kermit power]

Deesee said:

@kermit power

Values here..

From and too UK..

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/ba...







Section 7 you can drop down and select countries, UK in and UK out worldwide.

Also

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-...











World wide imports from 6th in world to 4th World wide exports from 6th in world to 5th in world.

Hope this helps, I’ll find an EC one later on today.

There’s various EC/ROW split out of numbers on both links too.

Well on track for trillion £ exports by 2030.

Thanks. I'll take a closer look later.

At a first glance, though, it feels like the Dutch one - in both directions - rather suggests that we maybe cannot assume Trade Intensity negates the impact of the war in Ukraine, given the massive variances in gas, crude and refined oil, which one would think are influenced by who was left holding needing what when the Russian tap was turned off?

[Mortarboard]

turbobloke said:

Vanden Saab said:

Mortarboard said:

Vanden Saab said:

And a good explainer here...
https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/tax/articles...

Basically M. and remainers in the media have jumped on the only negative figure left from the last couple of years and are desperately trying to blame it on Brexit
Amusing to watch really

Le sigh.

See the energy figures with 3 figures? Ukr related, for example.

That's why trade intensity can be used to show the effects of the only differentiator, brexit.

It's not rocket science.

M.

Apart from the whole point of the piece which says it is impossible to differentiate...
But derp derp figures 3 energy....that proves it
Hilarious that you have completely ignored everything they are saying.

But par for the course.

Ah bless. Just ignore the first two sentences of the deloitte conclusion, eh?

It's like the flat earth society in here at times!



M.

[Kermit power]

Mortarboard said:

Kermit power said:

The info provided so far in this thread made me question my understanding of the term, so I had to go away and double-check.

As it turned out, I was right in thinking it to be a term showing how strong trade is between chosen source countries or regions and a destination country or region relative to their size, so a trade intensity figure on its own is meaningless.

The trade intensity figures quoted and referred to are total, and compared to the trade intensity figures for the G7 countries.

Somw Brexiters find this particularly vexatious, as it negates the excuse about "you can't tell what brexit, covid or Ukraine related". The trade intensity comparison negates covid and ukr effects.

M.

I'm anything but a Brexiteer, but I'd still argue that trade intensity does not negate the effects of Covid or the war in Ukraine.

If every country was uniformly impacted by those two events then it could, but they weren't. Some countries locked down harder and longer than others, and some economies had greater or lesser exposure to Ukraine, both directly in terms of sourcing raw materials such as grain and indirectly (but probably more importantly) in terms of where they sourced their energy supplies.

[Mortarboard]

Kermit power said:

Thanks. I'll take a closer look later.

At a first glance, though, it feels like the Dutch one - in both directions - rather suggests that we maybe cannot assume Trade Intensity negates the impact of the war in Ukraine, given the massive variances in gas, crude and refined oil, which one would think are influenced by who was left holding needing what when the Russian tap was turned off?

Those figures presented aren't trade intensity figures- they're import export flows....

M.

[James6112]

Still zero benefits.
Took away my children’s EU citizenship that they were born with.
For what, to appease the nutters in the Tory party, that worked
A complete & utter disaster.
We told you so.

Thankfully a temporary blip.

Will rejoin during the parliament after next.

[Mortarboard]

Kermit power said:

I'm anything but a Brexiteer, but I'd still argue that trade intensity does not negate the effects of Covid or the war in Ukraine.

If every country was uniformly impacted by those two events then it could, but they weren't. Some countries locked down harder and longer than others, and some economies had greater or lesser exposure to Ukraine, both directly in terms of sourcing raw materials such as grain and indirectly (but probably more importantly) in terms of where they sourced their energy supplies.

It negates them because the effects of those average out across industries, for example, energy effects are unlikely to specifically impact one nation's import/exports as a percentage of gdp when compared to others. Import/exports are, by and large, global.
An individual country would have to be massively differently affected by one of those global events before it would even start to impact trade intensity- it is a ratio of gdp.

M.

[Deesee]

Kermit power said:

Thanks. I'll take a closer look later.

At a first glance, though, it feels like the Dutch one - in both directions - rather suggests that we maybe cannot assume Trade Intensity negates the impact of the war in Ukraine, given the massive variances in gas, crude and refined oil, which one would think are influenced by who was left holding needing what when the Russian tap was turned off?

We are pumping much gas into the EU, this has not changed (also via Norway to uk then beyond)..let alone the imported LNG to gas into the Europe interconnections.

Russian gas and fuel is still rife in the EU the pipelines are still very much live, nothing has changed.

See Yamal/Northern Lights/Brotherhood flows, & where it flows…

Russian reserves for EU needs are unmatched..

Edit…

KIV that Germany (and Eastern European EU countries) had a guaranteed 25 euro a therm price via the pipelines (+ nordstream 1/2) which in normal times was half the price of market.. flows and transit fees are still very much in demand.

Edited by Deesee on Monday 4th March 20:50

[Killboy]

So more real world winning. Just been to the vet.

Now that we're not part of the the EU we can't have a pet passport. You need a EU Animal Health Certificate, issued within 10 days of travel, for a cool £240. And that's per trip.

[Kermit power]

Killboy said:

So more real world winning. Just been to the vet.

Now that we're not part of the the EU we can't have a pet passport. You need a EU Animal Health Certificate, issued within 10 days of travel, for a cool £240. And that's per trip.

I'm pretty sure you can go to a vet when you get there and pick up an EU pet passport that'll be valid for multiple trips for much less money.

[Killboy]

Kermit power said:

I'm pretty sure you can go to a vet when you get there and pick up an EU pet passport that'll be valid for multiple trips for much less money.

Well not according to Euro Tunnel - perhaps you can get one when you there and save on the future trips - but our vet didnt seem to think so.

[Kermit power]

Killboy said:

Kermit power said:

I'm pretty sure you can go to a vet when you get there and pick up an EU pet passport that'll be valid for multiple trips for much less money.

Well not according to Euro Tunnel - perhaps you can get one when you there and save on the future trips - but our vet didnt seem to think so.

Yeah, you'll need a UK rip off form to get there, but I believe you can then use an EU one for 3 years.