Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)

[chrispmartha]

turbobloke said:

blueg33 said:

crankedup5 said:

How can those people afford to pay thousands of pounds to traffickers, especially when they have fled from extreme hazard of a war zone. And why if they have wealth risk their lives crossing the channel . For me people who have wealth have the ability to create a new life in any of the Countries that they have passed through getting to the English Channel, seems far fetched and nonsensical. Sure a few may have relatives here already.

They use all their life savings because they are desperate to flee their war torn country or persecution.

Whether that have wealth or not it’s about whether they can access other methods.

Your statements are not supported by fact

As you're keen on support from facts, what war / persecution have the major group, Albanians, been fleeing from? According to the infallible (not a fact, a jokey adjective) BBC under the heading 'What makes migrants leave Albania?' low salaries, corrupt politicians and administrators, poor working conditions and a low quality of life are given as their main reasons. No mention of war or persecution. Other origins of smaller groups will differ of course. At least while this theme persists we can ponder on the performance of EU+ compared to UK and as cited previously, it's not better, according to data from the EU and UK (possibly describable as supporting facts).

You’ll notice none of the posts you quoted mention Albanians the discussion was about Asylum Seekers being trafficked or smuggled, something which Cranked doesn’t think happens, he is, as usual ill informed, as it appears are you.

[sunbeam alpine]

turbobloke said:

'What makes migrants leave Albania?' low salaries, corrupt politicians and administrators, poor working conditions and a low quality of life"

On the positive side, this should help them feel right at home in the UK...

[turbobloke]

sunbeam alpine said:

turbobloke said:

'What makes migrants leave Albania?' low salaries, corrupt politicians and administrators, poor working conditions and a low quality of life"

On the positive side, this should help them feel right at home in the UK...

Good point well made.

[Mortarboard]

Well, looks like the DUP are can-kicking for a while. They're not in a good place. "Lock-in" any good news now, or burn bridges? Anyhoo, looks like they want to "mull it over" until the GFA Anniversary
https://ukdaily.news/dup-leader-sets-up-panel-to-i...

The EU doesn't look to wait around:
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2023/0306/1360572-w...

No news on Rishi's plans. Presumably he won't want to rock the boat until after his turn to meet the current US Prez, whatever happens. If he looks like dragging his feet, I'd expect the EU to ramp up the pressure.

And once that's out of the way, the UK needs to decide what it wants to be "independent" on. It's starting to get left behind on some things:
https://www.politico.eu/article/biden-united-kingd...

M.

[i4got]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/britain-is-getting-ba...

[turbobloke]

UK returned to growth in January, where was this forecast in those wonderful post-brexit economic models packed with gloom and doom...rhetorical question. Or any recent modelling for that matter.

Germany 'unexpectedly' contracted in Q4 2022, hopefully they like us will be back in growth, the EU as a whole likewise. Good all round if so.

[blueg33]

turbobloke said:

UK returned to growth in January, where was this forecast in those wonderful post-brexit economic models packed with gloom and doom...rhetorical question. Or any recent modelling for that matter.

Germany 'unexpectedly' contracted in Q4 2022, hopefully they like us will be back in growth, the EU as a whole likewise. Good all round if so.

UIK remains st but is not quite as st as forecast isn't good news when its still stter than in would have been

[don'tbesilly]

turbobloke said:

UK returned to growth in January, where was this forecast in those wonderful post-brexit economic models packed with gloom and doom...rhetorical question. Or any recent modelling for that matter.

Germany 'unexpectedly' contracted in Q4 2022, hopefully they like us will be back in growth, the EU as a whole likewise. Good all round if so.

Best not to mention BMW, heads will explode.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/bmw-plans-500m...

[blueg33]

don'tbesilly said:

Best not to mention BMW, heads will explode.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/bmw-plans-500m...

Good - but "one swallow does not a summer make".......................Aristotle

Also £500m is tiny in terms of automotive manufacturing investment

Edited by blueg33 on Friday 10th March 12:53

[anonymous-user]

turbobloke said:

UK returned to growth in January, where was this forecast in those wonderful post-brexit economic models packed with gloom and doom...rhetorical question. Or any recent modelling for that matter.

Germany 'unexpectedly' contracted in Q4 2022, hopefully they like us will be back in growth, the EU as a whole likewise. Good all round if so.

Growth below trend is nothing to be cheerful about but I agreed that European regional growth is needed and a positive

[mike9009]

Arrrgghhh....

So, many global airlines are not recognising UK CAA Form 1 release certificates despite Bilateral agreements being in place. This means our company will need to get registered with EuASA. I think the issue comes from the long lease agreements for aircraft which stipulate EASA Form 1s or FAA 8130-3 released parts to be used and fitted only. (I cannot fathom that part, but it appears to be the barrier......) So, currently putting together a plan to get EASA approval rather than UK CAA approvals. (plus the associated work and consequential higher costs involved......).

We are only just exploring (and succeeding in) the retrofit market for our products and this has become a barrier.

Brexit, the gift that keeps on giving....

[blueg33]

mike9009 said:

Arrrgghhh....

So, many global airlines are not recognising UK CAA Form 1 release certificates despite Bilateral agreements being in place. This means our company will need to get registered with EuASA. I think the issue comes from the long lease agreements for aircraft which stipulate EASA Form 1s or FAA 8130-3 released parts to be used and fitted only. (I cannot fathom that part, but it appears to be the barrier......) So, currently putting together a plan to get EASA approval rather than UK CAA approvals. (plus the associated work and consequential higher costs involved......).

We are only just exploring (and succeeding in) the retrofit market for our products and this has become a barrier.

Brexit, the gift that keeps on giving....

Any minute now, someone will come along to tell you that its your fault and you are doing the forms wrong/didn't prepare/(other weird strawman) and that Brexit is brilliant when you are sat in your carehome sipping milky tea rather than having to work and trade etc

[Mortarboard]

blueg33 said:

Any minute now, someone will come along to tell you that its your fault and you are doing the forms wrong/didn't prepare/(other weird strawman) and that Brexit is brilliant when you are sat in your carehome sipping milky tea rather than having to work and trade etc

Nah, in a mere 8-15 years the EU will be begging to be part of UK CAA. Sovereign you see. Rule makers, not rule takers, etc.

In other fun news, the DUP are off to the USA for a week to celebrate st. Patrick's day
Gotta get the airmiles and free food in before pulling the plug on cooperation.

M.

Edited by Mortarboard on Friday 10th March 15:34

[steveatesh]

Is it all sweetness and honey across the channel?
Not according to this article….

https://archive.ph/plPnG

“The EU has lost its grip as an economic superpower“

This stands out for me:

“First, the growth of developing economies in Asia and Africa means it represents a far smaller share of the global economy than it used to. Its share of global GDP has halved in the past four decades, from around 30 per cent of global GDP in 1980 to just 15 per cent today.
Over the same period, America's share has fallen from 25 per cent of global output to 24 per cent.”

Course the U.K. has to have a competent government to take advantage of global markets…. That could be a sticking point for a while!

[HM-2]

steveatesh said:

Its share of global GDP has halved in the past four decades, from around 30 per cent of global GDP in 1980 to just 15 per cent today.

I don't think the maths on this claim stacks up. As of 2021 EU total GDP was a little under $19bn which is more like 20% of global GDP, not 15%. And from the figures I've, seen EU GDP in 1980 was more like ~26% of global GDP.

The suggestion of a 50% proportional decline in 42 years has more than a faint whiff of bks about it. It's more like half that claim.

[steveatesh]

HM-2 said:

I don't think the maths on this claim stacks up. As of 2021 EU total GDP was a little under $19bn which is more like 20% of global GDP, not 15%. And from the figures I've, seen EU GDP in 1980 was more like ~26% of global GDP.

The suggestion of a 50% proportional decline in 42 years has more than a faint whiff of bks about it. It's more like half that claim.

I’m not an expert on this by any means but does this chart suggest the article is accurate for 2021?

And it’s in decline as part of a long term trend?


https://www.statista.com/statistics/253512/share-o...

[HM-2]

That's purchasing power parity rather than nominal GDP, which doesn't really translate quite so well into external economic influence given that it basically skews things to account for domestic pricing.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not disagreeing with the basic argument that the economic power of the EU had declined as an overall proportion of global GDP, but in real terms it's not by anything like the headline figure out forward in the article. Moreover, the article takes great pains to articulate the US as a beneficiary of this decline and yet their own economic strength as a proportion of global GDP has also declined over the same period.

I would argue that it's a product of an increasingly economically multipolar world rather than a symptom of the impending demise of the EU as an economic force. Which is probably why the Telegraph doesn't ask me to write editorials for them.

[Blue62]

HM-2 said:

That's purchasing power parity rather than nominal GDP, which doesn't really translate quite so well into external economic influence given that it basically skews things to account for domestic pricing.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not disagreeing with the basic argument that the economic power of the EU had declined as an overall proportion of global GDP, but in real terms it's not by anything like the headline figure out forward in the article. Moreover, the article takes great pains to articulate the US as a beneficiary of this decline and yet their own economic strength as a proportion of global GDP has also declined over the same period.

I would argue that it's a product of an increasingly economically multipolar world rather than a symptom of the impending demise of the EU as an economic force. Which is probably why the Telegraph doesn't ask me to write editorials for them.

We will have to have another go tomorrow, there’s surely some other poorly researched piece of anti EU propaganda we can latch onto and swallow whole, as we desperately try to makes sense of the self inflicted damage.

Anyway, it doesn’t matter because so many of us care more about sovereignty and that was why we voted as we did, we’ve now got fully accountable politicians and look how well our democracy is functioning as a result. Boris’s dad, Liz Truss, happy fish Mogg, Paul Dacre and Lady Mone are just a few examples, there are many more. So push off HM2 with your lardy dah facts and cynicism, if things aren’t going quite as well as we were told they would it’s the fault of people like you, simple really, really simple.

[StevieBee]

Killboy said:

Mrr T said:

Albania is a safeish country.

What has changed this year for them?

Albania is a country I know well. Have been working on a few projects there over the past few years.

Albania is an EU candidacy nation. As such, it is in receipt of much EU aid to help it bring its self up to EU standards of governance. (https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/294.html)

The average monthly salary there is around €450 a month. Yet when you go there, not just to Tirana but any of the main towns, it doesn't look and feel like a nation whose people are earning €450 a month; designer shops, bustling bars, decent cars. That's because many of them, mainly younger Albanians, are making upwards of €2k - €3k a month. This is coming from the black economy.

Part of the EU support is focused upon the eradication of corruption in public office (the source of the black economy). This is starting to have an effect. The dirty money is drying up and many people are seeing their monthly money shrink down to 'official' levels.

Albania doesn't make much nor does it export much. Productivity is low and unemployment is high (around 30%). So there is no means for these people to earn the same money legitimately. There will in the future but there is always a latency between reform and benefit (I'll come back to this point in a moment!) There's not much they can do about this because they should never have been earning the larger amounts in the first place.

The traditional destination for Albanian migrants was Germany. However, by virtue of Albania being an EU candidacy nation, Germany can be more robust in denying entry and has a greater range of options at their disposal (they being the conduit through which the EU aid is being administered). For example, take a look at these dudes working on a compost site in the south of Albania:



They all sought asylum in Germany but were denied. But rather than just send them back, they were given jobs on this EU funded project. They are now training others to do the same at other sites. But there's only so many opportunities like this.

Young Albanians are being told by nefarious operators that the UK offers milk and honey and that because we're no longer in the EU, it's more difficult for them to be sent back once in. It's almost impossible for an unskilled or even skilled Albanian to get a work visa for the UK. The application process alone makes it unaffordable for many. So they're leapfrogging the system knowing that once in, they're in.

The same of course applies to any other European Nation but as with so many refugees, the attraction of the UK is language - most Albanians speak English. Very few can speak or understand Italian, German, Swedish, etc.

Back to the issue of latency between reform and benefit. Albanians are proud of Albania. There's a deep sense of community and family there. When people leave, they almost always go back. Albanians are therefore the sort of refugee that the UK could perhaps do with. They come here, they work thus contributing to our economy, and go back home before they get old so do not become a burden on the NHS or our welfare system. And as the benefits of EU support begin to yield fruit, their time in the UK will likely lessen. This exact same thing happened with Poland.

There's also some uncomfortable goings on in Kosovo - which has a confused, conflicted and complex relationship with Albania which requires a fairly detailed understanding of the history and politics of the whole Balkan region (and good luck finding anyone with such insights) to fully understand. Here, there is arguably more justification for the seeking of sanctuary of many Kosovo-Albanians.

[Blue62]

StevieBee said:

Albania is a country I know well. Have been working on a few projects there over the past few years.

Albania is an EU candidacy nation. As such, it is in receipt of much EU aid to help it bring its self up to EU standards of governance. (https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/294.html)

The average monthly salary there is around €450 a month. Yet when you go there, not just to Tirana but any of the main towns, it doesn't look and feel like a nation whose people are earning €450 a month; designer shops, bustling bars, decent cars. That's because many of them, mainly younger Albanians, are making upwards of €2k - €3k a month. This is coming from the black economy.

Part of the EU support is focused upon the eradication of corruption in public office (the source of the black economy). This is starting to have an effect. The dirty money is drying up and many people are seeing their monthly money shrink down to 'official' levels.

Albania doesn't make much nor does it export much. Productivity is low and unemployment is high (around 30%). So there is no means for these people to earn the same money legitimately. There will in the future but there is always a latency between reform and benefit (I'll come back to this point in a moment!) There's not much they can do about this because they should never have been earning the larger amounts in the first place.

The traditional destination for Albanian migrants was Germany. However, by virtue of Albania being an EU candidacy nation, Germany can be more robust in denying entry and has a greater range of options at their disposal (they being the conduit through which the EU aid is being administered). For example, take a look at these dudes working on a compost site in the south of Albania:



They all sought asylum in Germany but were denied. But rather than just send them back, they were given jobs on this EU funded project. They are now training others to do the same at other sites. But there's only so many opportunities like this.

Young Albanians are being told by nefarious operators that the UK offers milk and honey and that because we're no longer in the EU, it's more difficult for them to be sent back once in. It's almost impossible for an unskilled or even skilled Albanian to get a work visa for the UK. The application process alone makes it unaffordable for many. So they're leapfrogging the system knowing that once in, they're in.

The same of course applies to any other European Nation but as with so many refugees, the attraction of the UK is language - most Albanians speak English. Very few can speak or understand Italian, German, Swedish, etc.

Back to the issue of latency between reform and benefit. Albanians are proud of Albania. There's a deep sense of community and family there. When people leave, they almost always go back. Albanians are therefore the sort of refugee that the UK could perhaps do with. They come here, they work thus contributing to our economy, and go back home before they get old so do not become a burden on the NHS or our welfare system. And as the benefits of EU support begin to yield fruit, their time in the UK will likely lessen. This exact same thing happened with Poland.

There's also some uncomfortable goings on in Kosovo - which has a confused, conflicted and complex relationship with Albania which requires a fairly detailed understanding of the history and politics of the whole Balkan region (and good luck finding anyone with such insights) to fully understand. Here, there is arguably more justification for the seeking of sanctuary of many Kosovo-Albanians.

Thanks for taking the time to post that, interesting and informative but no mention of Norman Wisdom, which will be seized on as proof you’re posting bks.