Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)
Discussion
steveatesh said:
Is it all sweetness and honey across the channel?
Not according to this article….
If every single EU citizen received a trillion Euros, a ten inch extension to their johnson or gazonkers and eternal life, the Telegraph would still be running headlines about its grinding decline. Not according to this article….
I get that they have a slant to push, but it's barely worth skimming any more. I already know what every single angle will be, and it'll be what they want rather than what actually is.
GIve news, not their fantasies.
Blue62 said:
StevieBee said:
Albania is a country I know well. Have been working on a few projects there over the past few years.
Albania is an EU candidacy nation. As such, it is in receipt of much EU aid to help it bring its self up to EU standards of governance. (https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/294.html)
The average monthly salary there is around €450 a month. Yet when you go there, not just to Tirana but any of the main towns, it doesn't look and feel like a nation whose people are earning €450 a month; designer shops, bustling bars, decent cars. That's because many of them, mainly younger Albanians, are making upwards of €2k - €3k a month. This is coming from the black economy.
Part of the EU support is focused upon the eradication of corruption in public office (the source of the black economy). This is starting to have an effect. The dirty money is drying up and many people are seeing their monthly money shrink down to 'official' levels.
Albania doesn't make much nor does it export much. Productivity is low and unemployment is high (around 30%). So there is no means for these people to earn the same money legitimately. There will in the future but there is always a latency between reform and benefit (I'll come back to this point in a moment!) There's not much they can do about this because they should never have been earning the larger amounts in the first place.
The traditional destination for Albanian migrants was Germany. However, by virtue of Albania being an EU candidacy nation, Germany can be more robust in denying entry and has a greater range of options at their disposal (they being the conduit through which the EU aid is being administered). For example, take a look at these dudes working on a compost site in the south of Albania:
They all sought asylum in Germany but were denied. But rather than just send them back, they were given jobs on this EU funded project. They are now training others to do the same at other sites. But there's only so many opportunities like this.
Young Albanians are being told by nefarious operators that the UK offers milk and honey and that because we're no longer in the EU, it's more difficult for them to be sent back once in. It's almost impossible for an unskilled or even skilled Albanian to get a work visa for the UK. The application process alone makes it unaffordable for many. So they're leapfrogging the system knowing that once in, they're in.
The same of course applies to any other European Nation but as with so many refugees, the attraction of the UK is language - most Albanians speak English. Very few can speak or understand Italian, German, Swedish, etc.
Back to the issue of latency between reform and benefit. Albanians are proud of Albania. There's a deep sense of community and family there. When people leave, they almost always go back. Albanians are therefore the sort of refugee that the UK could perhaps do with. They come here, they work thus contributing to our economy, and go back home before they get old so do not become a burden on the NHS or our welfare system. And as the benefits of EU support begin to yield fruit, their time in the UK will likely lessen. This exact same thing happened with Poland.
There's also some uncomfortable goings on in Kosovo - which has a confused, conflicted and complex relationship with Albania which requires a fairly detailed understanding of the history and politics of the whole Balkan region (and good luck finding anyone with such insights) to fully understand. Here, there is arguably more justification for the seeking of sanctuary of many Kosovo-Albanians.
Thanks for taking the time to post that, interesting and informative but no mention of Norman Wisdom, which will be seized on as proof you’re posting bAlbania is an EU candidacy nation. As such, it is in receipt of much EU aid to help it bring its self up to EU standards of governance. (https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/294.html)
The average monthly salary there is around €450 a month. Yet when you go there, not just to Tirana but any of the main towns, it doesn't look and feel like a nation whose people are earning €450 a month; designer shops, bustling bars, decent cars. That's because many of them, mainly younger Albanians, are making upwards of €2k - €3k a month. This is coming from the black economy.
Part of the EU support is focused upon the eradication of corruption in public office (the source of the black economy). This is starting to have an effect. The dirty money is drying up and many people are seeing their monthly money shrink down to 'official' levels.
Albania doesn't make much nor does it export much. Productivity is low and unemployment is high (around 30%). So there is no means for these people to earn the same money legitimately. There will in the future but there is always a latency between reform and benefit (I'll come back to this point in a moment!) There's not much they can do about this because they should never have been earning the larger amounts in the first place.
The traditional destination for Albanian migrants was Germany. However, by virtue of Albania being an EU candidacy nation, Germany can be more robust in denying entry and has a greater range of options at their disposal (they being the conduit through which the EU aid is being administered). For example, take a look at these dudes working on a compost site in the south of Albania:
They all sought asylum in Germany but were denied. But rather than just send them back, they were given jobs on this EU funded project. They are now training others to do the same at other sites. But there's only so many opportunities like this.
Young Albanians are being told by nefarious operators that the UK offers milk and honey and that because we're no longer in the EU, it's more difficult for them to be sent back once in. It's almost impossible for an unskilled or even skilled Albanian to get a work visa for the UK. The application process alone makes it unaffordable for many. So they're leapfrogging the system knowing that once in, they're in.
The same of course applies to any other European Nation but as with so many refugees, the attraction of the UK is language - most Albanians speak English. Very few can speak or understand Italian, German, Swedish, etc.
Back to the issue of latency between reform and benefit. Albanians are proud of Albania. There's a deep sense of community and family there. When people leave, they almost always go back. Albanians are therefore the sort of refugee that the UK could perhaps do with. They come here, they work thus contributing to our economy, and go back home before they get old so do not become a burden on the NHS or our welfare system. And as the benefits of EU support begin to yield fruit, their time in the UK will likely lessen. This exact same thing happened with Poland.
There's also some uncomfortable goings on in Kosovo - which has a confused, conflicted and complex relationship with Albania which requires a fairly detailed understanding of the history and politics of the whole Balkan region (and good luck finding anyone with such insights) to fully understand. Here, there is arguably more justification for the seeking of sanctuary of many Kosovo-Albanians.
ks. crankedup5 said:
Sunak in talks with Biden to forward the AUKUS pact which obviously includes Australia. This proposal, almost certainly to be agreed, would never have had legs if the U.K. had still been in the EU, according to Andrew Neil
So you can't use modelling to evaluate the likely economic impact of Brexit, even when done in a mathematically rigorous way, but Andrew Neil is allowed to be declared an arbiter-oracle and assert that AUKUS Security Pact would never have happened if the UK didn't leave the EU? 
crankedup5 said:
Sunak in talks with Biden to forward the AUKUS pact which obviously includes Australia. This proposal, almost certainly to be agreed, would never have had legs if the U.K. had still been in the EU, according to Andrew Neil.
Another brexit benefit.
Another brexit benefit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/09/br...
don'tbesilly said:
crankedup5 said:
Sunak in talks with Biden to forward the AUKUS pact which obviously includes Australia. This proposal, almost certainly to be agreed, would never have had legs if the U.K. had still been in the EU, according to Andrew Neil.
Another brexit benefit.
Another brexit benefit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/09/br...
A somewhat less breathless and more accurate summary can be found here
https://www.ft.com/content/6612e62f-0057-4134-8344...
Edited by HM-2 on Sunday 12th March 11:12
HM-2 said:
don'tbesilly said:
crankedup5 said:
Sunak in talks with Biden to forward the AUKUS pact which obviously includes Australia. This proposal, almost certainly to be agreed, would never have had legs if the U.K. had still been in the EU, according to Andrew Neil.
Another brexit benefit.
Another brexit benefit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/09/br...
A somewhat less breathless and more accurate summary can be found here
https://www.ft.com/content/6612e62f-0057-4134-8344...
Edited by HM-2 on Sunday 12th March 11:12
HM-2 said:
don'tbesilly said:
I’ve read it, but thanks all the same.
Then you should have realised that it's not a "brexit benefit". Nothing about our membership of the EU prevented us from removing quotas on skill migrants. Most of whom collapse.
Yay!
Be something for the (former) farmers to do, I suppose.
M.
crankedup5 said:
Sunak in talks with Biden to forward the AUKUS pact which obviously includes Australia. This proposal, almost certainly to be agreed, would never have had legs if the U.K. had still been in the EU, according to Andrew Neil. Another brexit benefit.
Why would it not have happened without Brexit? mike9009 said:
crankedup5 said:
Sunak in talks with Biden to forward the AUKUS pact which obviously includes Australia. This proposal, almost certainly to be agreed, would never have had legs if the U.K. had still been in the EU, according to Andrew Neil. Another brexit benefit.
Why would it not have happened without Brexit? crankedup5 said:
Rules and regulations, but I do not know exactly what rules and regulations would have come into play. Third Countries something or other.
Nothing about the EU rules or regulations precludes the existence of a multilateral military pact involving one member state and one or more external ones. There are multiple such pacts which have been established over the decades.It's an assertion which seems to have no base in evidence.
HM-2 said:
crankedup5 said:
Sunak in talks with Biden to forward the AUKUS pact which obviously includes Australia. This proposal, almost certainly to be agreed, would never have had legs if the U.K. had still been in the EU, according to Andrew Neil
So you can't use modelling to evaluate the likely economic impact of Brexit, even when done in a mathematically rigorous way, but Andrew Neil is allowed to be declared an arbiter-oracle and assert that AUKUS Security Pact would never have happened if the UK didn't leave the EU? don'tbesilly said:
crankedup5 said:
Sunak in talks with Biden to forward the AUKUS pact which obviously includes Australia. This proposal, almost certainly to be agreed, would never have had legs if the U.K. had still been in the EU, according to Andrew Neil.
Another brexit benefit.
Another brexit benefit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/09/br...
crankedup5 said:
Are you going to challenge the article?
I'm not really sure how or where I need to. Andrew Neill's opinion is something I put much faith in, not does he have a particularly good track records for accuracy in his predictions. There's no actual reason to think he's correct here; it's not like it's the result of some rigorously tested methodology on show. Defence policy is also an area huuuuugely out of Neill's wheelhouse, so I'm not sure why anyone would take what he says as gospel anyway. HM-2 said:
crankedup5 said:
Rules and regulations, but I do not know exactly what rules and regulations would have come into play. Third Countries something or other.
Nothing about the EU rules or regulations precludes the existence of a multilateral military pact involving one member state and one or more external ones. There are multiple such pacts which have been established over the decades.It's an assertion which seems to have no base in evidence.
HM-2 said:
crankedup5 said:
Rules and regulations, but I do not know exactly what rules and regulations would have come into play. Third Countries something or other.
Nothing about the EU rules or regulations precludes the existence of a multilateral military pact involving one member state and one or more external ones. There are multiple such pacts which have been established over the decades.It's an assertion which seems to have no base in evidence.
M.
crankedup5 said:
I look forward to reading your challenge to Andrew Neils assessment.
You already have. His "assessment" as you've presented it isn't an "assessment", it's a claim. A claim supported by no evidence, made by a person speaking well outside their area of subject matter expertise. I can simply dismiss it as lacking validity and empirical worth without needing to compose a more detailed rebuttal. I'm not even sure where you're getting this purported "assessment" from, because apparently you couldn't be bothered to provide a citation.
Edited by HM-2 on Sunday 12th March 16:55
HM-2 said:
crankedup5 said:
I look forward to reading your challenge to Andrew Neils assessment.
You already have. His "assessment" isn't an "assessment", it's a claim. A claim supported by no evidence, made by a person speaking well outside their area of subject matter expertise. I can simply dismiss it as lacking validity and empirical worth without needing to compose a more detailed rebuttal. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff