Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)

[Ridgemont]

Mortarboard said:

Especially when you consider the influence/control the UK had within the EU, compared to the influence/control the UK will have in the CPTPP!

M.

I’ll bite as it seems you otherwise get away with this kind of nonsensical comparison.

The CPTPP is not the European Union. 3 seconds of analysis should tell you that.
The EU has evolved geopolitical ambitions (as well set out by their own documents) which the CP (I can’t be arsed typing it out over and over) has not.
There is no treaty of Rome. There is no pledge to ever inclusive union. There is no foreign policy nonsense.
It’s utterly different.
And yes it involves sovereignty but as does any international agreement. That this ‘durrrr’ argument is meant to condemn the CP is utterly bemusing. It’s infinitely frustrating that somehow opponents of exit assume that the UK is anti international collaboration.
Raise your game.

[Ridgemont]

And more to the point the UK will be the second largest GDP after Japan and is commiting a significant amount of resource to ensuring it is fit for purpose not least ensuring China does not accede in the near future.
This is good stuff. Almost Global Britain if you will.

[Mortarboard]

Ridgemont said:

And more to the point the UK will be the second largest GDP after Japan and is commiting a significant amount of resource to ensuring it is fit for purpose not least ensuring China does not accede in the near future.
This is good stuff. Almost Global Britain if you will.

If the US & China join, GB becomes a minnow- less than 4% via GDP.

If the US & China don't join, then there's not a whole benefit of joining.

No point in having the same amount of trade, only to have it half a world away (literally)

Hence why it's only worth a 0.08% uplift at present, at a cost of 4% (and growing)

M.

[Ridgemont]

Mortarboard said:

Ridgemont said:

And more to the point the UK will be the second largest GDP after Japan and is commiting a significant amount of resource to ensuring it is fit for purpose not least ensuring China does not accede in the near future.
This is good stuff. Almost Global Britain if you will.

If the US & China join, GB becomes a minnow- less than 4% via GDP.

If the US & China don't join, then there's not a whole benefit of joining.

No point in having the same amount of trade, only to have it half a world away (literally)

Hence why it's only worth a 0.08% uplift at present, at a cost of 4% (and growing)

M.

US should join. China shouldn’t. US may well eventually. But your sums are all off if you are interested in uplift. We’re not in Kansas any more: this is geopolitical and keeping a lid on China. One of the fortunate side effects of exiting the EU is that we get to lay a hard line against a possible Chinese burn.
You have your vision set too closely to the channel. And if you don’t think this kind of thinking matters just watch the paralysis that China has managed to inflict on Germany’s view of Ukraine.

[Mortarboard]

Uk got a veto on cptpp members then?

Jesus. Pass the tinfoil when your done making your hat.

M.

[Ridgemont]

Mortarboard said:

Uk got a veto on cptpp members then?

Jesus. Pass the tinfoil when your done making your hat.

M.

Hm. Thanks. It was an instructive discussion. Nice to see it didn’t degrade into abuse….

[Mortarboard]

Ridgemont said:

Mortarboard said:

Uk got a veto on cptpp members then?

Jesus. Pass the tinfoil when your done making your hat.

M.

Hm. Thanks. It was an instructive discussion. Nice to see it didn’t degrade into abuse….

Then don't start talking bks then.

The current cptpp market is the same size as the one the UK left, just an average of an extra 5,000 to 10,000 miles away.

M

[Ridgemont]

Mortarboard said:

Ridgemont said:

Mortarboard said:

Uk got a veto on cptpp members then?

Jesus. Pass the tinfoil when your done making your hat.

M.

Hm. Thanks. It was an instructive discussion. Nice to see it didn’t degrade into abuse….

Then don't start talking bks then.

The current cptpp market is the same size as the one the UK left, just an average of an extra 5,000 to 10,000 miles away.

M

Right. So you get to be abusive and I get to hear your clarifications? Wonderful. You melt.

Strangely enough the world is now managed by supply chains that manage jIT delivery via international concord. I suspect that the UK will manage through it.

Tinfoil hat. fk off.

Edited by Ridgemont on Friday 31st March 02:50

Edited by Ridgemont on Friday 31st March 02:51

[blueg33]

Ridgemont said:

Mortarboard said:

Ridgemont said:

Mortarboard said:

Uk got a veto on cptpp members then?

Jesus. Pass the tinfoil when your done making your hat.

M.

Hm. Thanks. It was an instructive discussion. Nice to see it didn’t degrade into abuse….

Then don't start talking bks then.

The current cptpp market is the same size as the one the UK left, just an average of an extra 5,000 to 10,000 miles away.

M

Right. So you get to be abusive and I get to hear your clarifications? Wonderful. You melt.

Strangely enough the world is now managed by supply chains that manage jIT delivery via international concord. I suspect that the UK will manage through it.

Tinfoil hat. fk off.

Edited by Ridgemont on Friday 31st March 02:50

Edited by Ridgemont on Friday 31st March 02:51

JIT is much more difficult when the supplier is 10,000 miles away. That’s not opinion, it’s reality.

[Ivan stewart]

Mortarboard said:

Then don't start talking bks then.

The current cptpp market is the same size as the one the UK left, just an average of an extra 5,000 to 10,000 miles away.

M

We still trade with the EU.
But It’s now like the st sandwich, we now have much more bread than st , yes I know they are still holding NI to Ransom but a good government with a spine could sort it out ..
Gotta love the remnants !!brexit will never work in their minds …

[Ivan stewart]

blueg33 said:

JIT is much more difficult when the supplier is 10,000 miles away. That’s not opinion, it’s reality.

I can get parts from Japan nearly as quickly as from the USA which is faster than stuff out of Germany mostly ..
However the real answer is we should be making more and importing less …

Edited by Ivan stewart on Friday 31st March 07:59

[HM-2]

Ridgemont said:

But your sums are all off if you are interested in uplift.

Doesn't the government's own estimate only suggest a GDP benefit to the UK of 0.08% over 10 years from the trade deal? I'm not sure on what grounds you can contest that figure.

Edited by HM-2 on Friday 31st March 08:21

[nickfrog]

TTwiggy said:

crankedup5 said:

Such is the shame that it took that long to arrive at the sensible conclusion . Never mind the anti brexit group, such as it is, can regroup and spend the next forty years moaning. Good luck and enjoy.

There was nothing 'sensible' about leaving the EU; no logical argument at all, it was based entirely on an emotional response.

Exactly. The kind of emotional response that only someone who claimed that "all French people are racist" in this very thread could have. No coincidence.

[crankedup5]

Ridgemont said:

Mortarboard said:

Especially when you consider the influence/control the UK had within the EU, compared to the influence/control the UK will have in the CPTPP!

M.

I’ll bite as it seems you otherwise get away with this kind of nonsensical comparison.

The CPTPP is not the European Union. 3 seconds of analysis should tell you that.
The EU has evolved geopolitical ambitions (as well set out by their own documents) which the CP (I can’t be arsed typing it out over and over) has not.
There is no treaty of Rome. There is no pledge to ever inclusive union. There is no foreign policy nonsense.
It’s utterly different.
And yes it involves sovereignty but as does any international agreement. That this ‘durrrr’ argument is meant to condemn the CP is utterly bemusing. It’s infinitely frustrating that somehow opponents of exit assume that the UK is anti international collaboration.
Raise your game.

The big problem that evolved with EU membership was the political dog lead attached. CPTPP is
purely a trade partnership, massive box tick and our membership comes at an early stage in the club formation. It’s win win all the way.

[turbobloke]

nickfrog said:

TTwiggy said:

crankedup5 said:

Such is the shame that it took that long to arrive at the sensible conclusion . Never mind the anti brexit group, such as it is, can regroup and spend the next forty years moaning. Good luck and enjoy.

There was nothing 'sensible' about leaving the EU; no logical argument at all, it was based entirely on an emotional response.

Exactly. The kind of emotional response that only someone who claimed that "all French people are racist" in this very thread could have. No coincidence.

Not that there's anything wrong with baseless generalisations, and same-old name-calling to go. Much.

As indicated many times, a majority of those who voted had their reasons, which basically reflected the key point that over many years the EU had failed to convince enough people with sufficient interest to vote, that remaining would be better with more benefits than disbenefits. Claiming there was no logical reason is itself an emotional response to losing the vote, there were and are many logical reasons including greater future self-determination by getting out of what was in effect an unhappy marriage. We no longer take into account as a prime consideration in policymaking the disparate views of 20+ other nations, nor do we have anywhere near as many of those compromised views forced upon us. Not enough people disagreed, the vote went as it did, democracy won out over the democracy blockers, the UK left and not getting over it / moving on after 7 years is as emotional as it gets. Irony and hypocrisy overload, And as indicated above there's no sign of this changing for another 7 years, or more, which really is astonishing. Do remainer folks think that incessant whining will see the UK back in the EU at some point - dream on, but dreams are free, like the UK is (mostly) of the dysfunctional distant EU with its wonderful brand of 'democracy'.

Juncker said:

We decide on something, leave it lying around, and wait and see what happens. If no one kicks up a fuss, because most people don't understand what has been decided, we continue step by step until there is no turning back.

Logically and with self-evident reason, good riddance to that rubbish.

[turbobloke]

Almost forgot.

After the arrogance and totalitarianism of "we decide" there's this approach to the views of the little people,

Juncker also said:

If it's a Yes, we will say 'on we go', and if it's a No we will say 'we continue'.

'Bye

[Bannock]

Ridgemont said:

Mortarboard said:

Especially when you consider the influence/control the UK had within the EU, compared to the influence/control the UK will have in the CPTPP!

M.

I’ll bite as it seems you otherwise get away with this kind of nonsensical comparison.

The CPTPP is not the European Union. 3 seconds of analysis should tell you that.
The EU has evolved geopolitical ambitions (as well set out by their own documents) which the CP (I can’t be arsed typing it out over and over) has not.
There is no treaty of Rome. There is no pledge to ever inclusive union. There is no foreign policy nonsense.
It’s utterly different.
And yes it involves sovereignty but as does any international agreement. That this ‘durrrr’ argument is meant to condemn the CP is utterly bemusing. It’s infinitely frustrating that somehow opponents of exit assume that the UK is anti international collaboration.
Raise your game.

You are conflating the EU with the Single Market. We left the EU after the referendum, we didn't have to leave the SM. Many leading Brexiteers said this before the referendum.

What has happened now is that the current government has joined the CPTPP as a means of making it more difficult to rejoin the SM. Essentially they've deliberately sabotaged our economic interests by doing this.

I don't want the UK to be anti-international collaboration. Quite the opposite. What I want the UK to do is collaborate internationally in the best interests of our own country. Losing 4% of your wealth and then adding 0.08% onto that reduced wealth does not appear to be in our best interests. I'd like us to leave the CPTPP and join the EU SM.

[turbobloke]

Remaining positive, there's this precis of HMG online commentary.

There are a great many benefits to brexit, including more control of our democracy, borders and waters; the freedom to regulate in more areas in a more proportionate and agile way that works for us as individuals and businesses; reaching out and and agreeing new trade deals and strategic partnerships without dilution by other interests; increased responsibility and accountability in uk politics.

Plenty of logic there. Thank EU for brexit.

[don'tbesilly]

Bannock said:

Ridgemont said:

Mortarboard said:

Especially when you consider the influence/control the UK had within the EU, compared to the influence/control the UK will have in the CPTPP!

M.

I’ll bite as it seems you otherwise get away with this kind of nonsensical comparison.

The CPTPP is not the European Union. 3 seconds of analysis should tell you that.
The EU has evolved geopolitical ambitions (as well set out by their own documents) which the CP (I can’t be arsed typing it out over and over) has not.
There is no treaty of Rome. There is no pledge to ever inclusive union. There is no foreign policy nonsense.
It’s utterly different.
And yes it involves sovereignty but as does any international agreement. That this ‘durrrr’ argument is meant to condemn the CP is utterly bemusing. It’s infinitely frustrating that somehow opponents of exit assume that the UK is anti international collaboration.
Raise your game.

You are conflating the EU with the Single Market. We left the EU after the referendum, we didn't have to leave the SM. Many leading Brexiteers said this before the referendum.

What has happened now is that the current government has joined the CPTPP as a means of making it more difficult to rejoin the SM. Essentially they've deliberately sabotaged our economic interests by doing this.

I don't want the UK to be anti-international collaboration. Quite the opposite. What I want the UK to do is collaborate internationally in the best interests of our own country. Losing 4% of your wealth and then adding 0.08% onto that reduced wealth does not appear to be in our best interests.
I'd like us to leave the CPTPP and join the EU SM.

That’s a shame as the UK joined the former in the early hours of this morning, and the latter will become nothing more than a distant memory in the future.

Did you sign the petition?




https://mobile.twitter.com/biztradegovuk/status/16...

Edited by don'tbesilly on Friday 31st March 09:33

Edited by don'tbesilly on Friday 31st March 09:34

[HM-2]

crankedup5 said:

CPTPP is purely a trade partnership

This isn't true, though, is it? CPTPP does require certain elements of regulatory alignment, so it isn't "purely" a trade partnership. For instance, it regulates things like state aid, intellectual property rights, and the permitted actions of state-owned enterprises.

crankedup5 said:

our membership comes at an early stage in the club formation

I would also deem this pretty questionable. There are only a handful of additional seriously interested parties, and most- with the exception of China- are economically relatively small. It's unlikely the US is going to join in the immediate future, and whilst states like South Korea have expressed idle interest, they haven't formally applied. And though Taiwan has, it's pretty unlikely they'll be accepted because of various member states' laws absence of diplomatic relations or recognition.