Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)
Discussion
Mortarboard said:
It negates them because the effects of those average out across industries, for example, energy effects are unlikely to specifically impact one nation's import/exports as a percentage of gdp when compared to others. Import/exports are, by and large, global.
An individual country would have to be massively differently affected by one of those global events before it would even start to impact trade intensity- it is a ratio of gdp.
M.
You bolded the wrong bits An individual country would have to be massively differently affected by one of those global events before it would even start to impact trade intensity- it is a ratio of gdp.
M.
Stats are great, but in these circumstances all they can do is present probabilities with degrees of confidence. They prove nothing really.
The biggest single issue of the last 4yrs has been inept government. How much of that was down to geopolitical distractions is also hard to untangle.
The biggest issue for the next 10+yrs is that there is nobody on the horizon in any of the big political parties who has a f
king clue what to do with any of it. We are in a massive transitory period in our politics (IMO). Hopefully both big parties will implode - the next 5yrs may prompt this - which might prompt the change that is needed in the way we are governed. Whether that brings about the fundamental changes needed, who knows. But we can't continue with this system that promotes bickering.
(This isn't a unique UK problem either. All Western democracies are going through the same...they're just on slightly different points in the curve).
Murph7355 said:
You bolded the wrong bits
Then with all due respect murph, in that case you can't trust import numbers, export numbers gdp, employment numbers or even government spending at department level. They're all done to the same level as trade intensity figures are.
And they're all a damn sight more reliable than "lol but no"
M.
Mortarboard said:
Then with all due respect murph, in that case you can't trust import numbers, export numbers gdp, employment numbers or even government spending at department level.
They're all done to the same level as trade intensity figures are.
And they're all a damn sight more reliable than "lol but no"
M.
Import and export numbers are actual numbers (I worked for HMRC for a short while as an undergrad' working on trade statistics).They're all done to the same level as trade intensity figures are.
And they're all a damn sight more reliable than "lol but no"
M.
Intensity calculations are fine too.
It is the extrapolation that they, and some perceived ability to disentangle major events, can prove Brexit as a major negative problem that I challenge (though not enough that I care that much other than to wander in here on rare occasions when bored these days).
I'd assert that even had Brexit not happened, the country would still be deep in the s
t. Largely because of my aforementioned views on what the biggest issues of the day are. CivicDuties said:
Salad days are over...but it's probably ok because only woke snowflakes eat salad, it's a dirty foreign habit, real men eat broken glass.
Err, that company had racked up 1m+ off losses before the referendum (2012/2016), had very little capital and had to financed there sales ledger by 3/4m in 2014.Took their suppliers for 15m (which on a turnover of 30m indicates they were struggling before any vote as they had stretched there debtor days KIV fresh food does not last 6 months) and of the 2 million in shareholder funds returned Zero to their creditors.
They were trading insolvent. Hence HSBC pulling the plug on the invoice finance facility, it was such a mess they could not even pre pack.
& this happened in 2016, it was fully dissolved by 2019 before the exit date.
It’s was a undercapitalised badly run business.
bhstewie said:
How is UK car makers having to source more parts for their cars from the UK a bad thing?hstewie said:Vanden Saab said:
Mortarboard said:
Shhhhh, don't mention the fact that Canada has now halted trade talks with the uk.....
M.
Shhhh, CPTPP...M.
Oh, wait.....
Yes, pissing off one of the members before its even started. Is it because they speak French of something?
M.
Mortarboard said:
crankedup5 said:
Mortarboard said:
crankedup5 said:
Anywhere nice for your holiday ‘M’?
Welcome back.
Just back from Chicago, Vegas end of april. Welcome back.
M.
If you're going to Vegas, you vegas.
M.
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