Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

[Rumblestripe]

Prolex-UK said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

aeropilot said:

youngsyr said:

hidetheelephants said:

youngsyr said:

hidetheelephants said:

We're in NATO, if you don't like it lobby your representative.

So are the US.

Ukraine aren't.

NATO members in eastern europe are concerned about their security should Ukraine be defeated by Russia. I share their concern.

As they should be. Best they pony up and deal with the problem, eh?

I've taken the st side of Brexit for 8 years, about time we got some of the payback, wouldn't you say?

There's one in every village............

We're a mixed ability group, for sure.

Very subtle.

I like that

Looks like a Brexit Believer has wandered into the room. Oh dear. They're usually busy colouring Union Flags, perhaps some new crayons?

The idea that a major war in Europe need not concern us is dangerous nonsense.

[swanny71]

BikeBikeBIke said:

We're a mixed ability group, for sure.

[RichFN2]

youngsyr said:

My point is that "we" don't need to do anything. Let the continental Europeans sort it out.

Posters on here seem to have an over-inflated opinion of the UK's importance in the Ukraine-Russian Conflict, IMO.

In theory your point is a valid one, sadly the reality is continental Europe is not all in agreement on helping Ukraine with military aid.

The other issue is most countries in Europe are not a military powerhouse with a reasonable stock of spare equipment that can be donated to Ukraine, and even less have stock to donate that is superior to Russian equipment.

If we remove France, Germany, Poland, Sweden and to a degree Spain then we are left with old soviet equipment and some countries that are either still close to Russia or have nothing worth donating (Moldova, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Albania,Bosnia etc)

If the UK, America, Australia, etc took that approach in March 2022 and let continental Europe sort it 100% most of Ukraine would have fallen and Russia would have connected to Transnistria/Pridnestrovia and it's highly likely Moldova would have been next and their army is in a far worse state than Ukraine's.

At that stage we have a united Moldova, Ukraine, and Belarus all being ruled by Moscow. At that stage Europe has a huge amount of land being controlled by Russia and it's likely that countries such as Serbia and Hungary will be tempted to form closer ties with a more powerful Russia.

[BrettMRC]

At least one poster here could do with reading Churchill's book "The Second World War", especially the bits leading up to late 1939....

[isaldiri]

RichFN2 said:

In theory your point is a valid one, sadly the reality is continental Europe is not all in agreement on helping Ukraine with military aid.

Well, one would also have to define what the extent of 'helping with military aid' is supposed to be doing. The US has shown that they care sufficiently enough to ensure that Russian gets stuck in the eastern half of Ukraine without being able to move much westwards. Should the latter start being a realistic threat, the arms flow will almost certainly restart. Whether there is any interest or benefit in helping Ukraine with military aid such that they can retake 2022 or 2014 territory though is quite another thing and the current situation with russia being bogged down into a scrap in the Donbas is quite acceptable for them too without needing to do all that much more in order to achieve that rather more difficult outcome...

[BikeBikeBIke]

isaldiri said:

Well, one would also have to define what the extent of 'helping with military aid' is supposed to be doing. The US has shown that they care sufficiently enough to ensure that Russian gets stuck in the eastern half of Ukraine without being able to move much westwards. Should the latter start being a realistic threat, the arms flow will almost certainly restart. Whether there is any interest or benefit in helping Ukraine with military aid such that they can retake 2022 or 2014 territory though is quite another thing and the current situation with russia being bogged down into a scrap in the Donbas is quite acceptable for them too without needing to do all that much more in order to achieve that rather more difficult outcome...

I don't think we have to define a desired end state. If we we give Ukraine as much as we can they hopefully at least stop Russia where they are. I very much doubt were gonna have the problem of Ukraine retaking too much territory.

[J4CKO]

Is Putin hell bent on world domination ?

Maybe just give him a badge with "World Boss" on it ?

[youngsyr]

menguin said:

youngsyr said:

That's an overly simplistic view - even if the Russians take Ukraine, which I highly doubt Germany and France will let happen, those two countries still stand between us and the Russians.

Not to mention the Fins, Swedes and Norwegians who won't stand for Russia invading Western Europe.

I put the chances of that war ever ending up on our doorstep as zero, as by then the US will be forced to join in, or see Europe entirely dominated by Russia.

So because its not Brits dying, then fk 'em? Nice viewpoint.

It's a viewpoint we've taken and are taking in plenty of other places in the world, why is Ukraine so special?

[youngsyr]

Rumblestripe said:

Prolex-UK said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

aeropilot said:

youngsyr said:

hidetheelephants said:

youngsyr said:

hidetheelephants said:

We're in NATO, if you don't like it lobby your representative.

So are the US.

Ukraine aren't.

NATO members in eastern europe are concerned about their security should Ukraine be defeated by Russia. I share their concern.

As they should be. Best they pony up and deal with the problem, eh?

I've taken the st side of Brexit for 8 years, about time we got some of the payback, wouldn't you say?

There's one in every village............

We're a mixed ability group, for sure.

Very subtle.

I like that

Looks like a Brexit Believer has wandered into the room. Oh dear. They're usually busy colouring Union Flags, perhaps some new crayons?

The idea that a major war in Europe need not concern us is dangerous nonsense.

Always interesting to see the intellectually challenged pile on in a group once one leads the way.

Bit like lemmings off a cliff, except Lemmings don't pat each other on the back whilst jumping...

[BikeBikeBIke]

youngsyr said:

It's a viewpoint we've taken and are taking in plenty of other places in the world, why is Ukraine so special?

Because it's in Europe, our back garden and helping them out is cheap and in our own advantage.

[youngsyr]

RichFN2 said:

youngsyr said:

My point is that "we" don't need to do anything. Let the continental Europeans sort it out.

Posters on here seem to have an over-inflated opinion of the UK's importance in the Ukraine-Russian Conflict, IMO.

In theory your point is a valid one, sadly the reality is continental Europe is not all in agreement on helping Ukraine with military aid.

The other issue is most countries in Europe are not a military powerhouse with a reasonable stock of spare equipment that can be donated to Ukraine, and even less have stock to donate that is superior to Russian equipment.

If we remove France, Germany, Poland, Sweden and to a degree Spain then we are left with old soviet equipment and some countries that are either still close to Russia or have nothing worth donating (Moldova, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Albania,Bosnia etc)

If the UK, America, Australia, etc took that approach in March 2022 and let continental Europe sort it 100% most of Ukraine would have fallen and Russia would have connected to Transnistria/Pridnestrovia and it's highly likely Moldova would have been next and their army is in a far worse state than Ukraine's.

At that stage we have a united Moldova, Ukraine, and Belarus all being ruled by Moscow. At that stage Europe has a huge amount of land being controlled by Russia and it's likely that countries such as Serbia and Hungary will be tempted to form closer ties with a more powerful Russia.

Why would you remove France, Germany, Poland and Sweden from the discussion - aren't they members of the EU?

Don't you think it's about time that the EU got its act together and started actually acting as a group in its members interests?

Do you really think if the UK sent "thoughs and prayers" instead of weapons in reaction to the innitial invasion that Ukraine and Moldova would have been conquered and taken under Russian control?

I find that highly unlikely, as I said, I just don't think we're as important as many other posters do, quite simply we weren't the tipping point and even if we were, I suspect the US or another country would have stepped in to ensure we weren't. Even more so, I'm not convinced that Putin is intent on (or even capable of) anything more than recapturing Ukraine.

[youngsyr]

BikeBikeBIke said:

youngsyr said:

It's a viewpoint we've taken and are taking in plenty of other places in the world, why is Ukraine so special?

Because it's in Europe, our back garden and helping them out is cheap and in our own advantage.

If it's cheap, how much has it cost so far (including sanctions on energy)?

And what advantages are we going to receive?

[pingu393]

BrettMRC said:

At least one poster here could do with reading Churchill's book "The Second World War", especially the bits leading up to late 1939....

I bought a copy a couple of months ago - £30.

[BikeBikeBIke]

youngsyr said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

youngsyr said:

It's a viewpoint we've taken and are taking in plenty of other places in the world, why is Ukraine so special?

Because it's in Europe, our back garden and helping them out is cheap and in our own advantage.

If it's cheap, how much has it cost so far (including sanctions on energy)?

And what advantages are we going to receive?

OK, so you want to end energy sanctions as well? A war creates massive economic damage. I'm really not sure we can get back to Jan 2022 in terms of energy purchase. Firstly getting the energy here is difficult secondly I don't think we directly bought much Russian energy. The impact on us is the global energy prices rising due to the war not the lack of Russian energy direct to us.

Advantages are that Putin things twice next time. He got Crimea without a fight and thought, "Great same again". If he gets Ukriane or even the coast of Ukraine it will be Moldova next immediately amd he'll be thinking "Great, this works." or maybe the next guy will.

[youngsyr]

BikeBikeBIke said:

youngsyr said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

youngsyr said:

It's a viewpoint we've taken and are taking in plenty of other places in the world, why is Ukraine so special?

Because it's in Europe, our back garden and helping them out is cheap and in our own advantage.

If it's cheap, how much has it cost so far (including sanctions on energy)?

And what advantages are we going to receive?

OK, so you want to end energy sanctions as well? A war creates massive economic damage. I'm really not sure we can get back to Jan 2022 in terms of energy purchase. Firstly getting the energy here is difficult secondly I don't think we directly bought much Russian energy. The impact on us is the global energy prices rising due to the war not the lack of Russian energy direct to us.

Advantages are that Putin things twice next time. He got Crimea without a fight and thought, "Great same again". If he gets Ukriane or even the coast of Ukraine it will be Moldova next immediately amd he'll be thinking "Great, this works." or maybe the next guy will.

Hold on, you stated that our support was cheap, implying you knew the cost.

So, what is the all in cost so far?

[BikeBikeBIke]

youngsyr said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

youngsyr said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

youngsyr said:

It's a viewpoint we've taken and are taking in plenty of other places in the world, why is Ukraine so special?

Because it's in Europe, our back garden and helping them out is cheap and in our own advantage.

If it's cheap, how much has it cost so far (including sanctions on energy)?

And what advantages are we going to receive?

OK, so you want to end energy sanctions as well? A war creates massive economic damage. I'm really not sure we can get back to Jan 2022 in terms of energy purchase. Firstly getting the energy here is difficult secondly I don't think we directly bought much Russian energy. The impact on us is the global energy prices rising due to the war not the lack of Russian energy direct to us.

Advantages are that Putin things twice next time. He got Crimea without a fight and thought, "Great same again". If he gets Ukriane or even the coast of Ukraine it will be Moldova next immediately amd he'll be thinking "Great, this works." or maybe the next guy will.

Hold on, you stated that our support was cheap, implying you knew the cost.

So, what is the all in cost so far?

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9477/

[youngsyr]

BrettMRC said:

At least one poster here could do with reading Churchill's book "The Second World War", especially the bits leading up to late 1939....

Not sure why you feel the need to be so obtuse?

If that post is aimed at me and you're referring to the appeasement movement in the face of the successive and accelerating breaches of the Treaty of Versailles up to and including the invasion of the Sudetenland, culminating in the signing of the Munich Agreement (which occurred in the Autumn of 1938, by the way), then I'm pretty up to speed, thank you.

What you fail to realise is that this was all prior to the Atomic Age, You may have noticed a little thing called "the Cold War" that kept Russia (then the USSR) contained within Europe for the best part of 50 years, all while holding a much hostile attitude (hence the "war" part) to Western Europe and the US than Putin has ever been.

[youngsyr]

BikeBikeBIke said:

youngsyr said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

youngsyr said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

youngsyr said:

It's a viewpoint we've taken and are taking in plenty of other places in the world, why is Ukraine so special?

Because it's in Europe, our back garden and helping them out is cheap and in our own advantage.

If it's cheap, how much has it cost so far (including sanctions on energy)?

And what advantages are we going to receive?

OK, so you want to end energy sanctions as well? A war creates massive economic damage. I'm really not sure we can get back to Jan 2022 in terms of energy purchase. Firstly getting the energy here is difficult secondly I don't think we directly bought much Russian energy. The impact on us is the global energy prices rising due to the war not the lack of Russian energy direct to us.

Advantages are that Putin things twice next time. He got Crimea without a fight and thought, "Great same again". If he gets Ukriane or even the coast of Ukraine it will be Moldova next immediately amd he'll be thinking "Great, this works." or maybe the next guy will.

Hold on, you stated that our support was cheap, implying you knew the cost.

So, what is the all in cost so far?

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9477/

I'll do the reading and quoting for you then, I guess?

£12bn in direct military aid plus the cost of the energy sanctions, which are?

[Oliver Hardy]

Slightly off topic, glide bombs. Was watching a bit on the news about Russia adopting old bombs to glide bombs, they deploy them from a high altitude inside Russia and the Ukrainians can not move their SAM systems to shoot down the aircraft because they will be in danger from attack. They said they are highly accurate and use GPS, how can a glide bomb be accurate if it has no engine or mechanise to propel or steer it, while in my thick head says you can calculate the inpact of the bomb surely it can only be a rough estimate where it lands and the higher you launch it and further away the less accurate it wil be???

Second question is the million shells that are supposed to get to Ukraine yet they are months away, how are they transporting them by elephants or are they coming from Mars?

[BikeBikeBIke]

youngsyr said:

I'll do the reading and quoting for you then, I guess?

£12bn in direct military aid plus the cost of the energy sanctions, which are?

We can reverse the economic damage done by the war itself. We pay the global rate for energy, we can't just say to Russia 'we'll buy energy from you at Jan 22 prices.

I can't find a number for the economic costs of the war itself, but it will clearly be astronomical and open ended. There will need to be some kind of Marshall Plan as well. Of course we can't avoid any of those costs, there aren't optional, they're happening whatever we do.

BUT... The fact the war is mindblowing expensive for us in economic terms is a very good reason not let Putin achieve his aims and invite Putin to do it again.

The £12bn looks very cheap if it saves us £80bn plus the lives of our kids in future. (I'm pretty sure 12bn is a replacement cost, the cost of second hand tanks isn't that high.)