Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4
Discussion
Rumblestripe said:
That is just one of the stupid things, even if Russia had managed to overrun Ukraine in its initial invasion, they could not hold it. They couldn't hold Afghanistan as the USSR and that is a much smaller country albeit with different geographical challenges.
Very different subduing the population of a country right on your border from one thousands of miles away. If Russia had been less cocky and actually planned properly, removal of the current heads of political and military establishments followed by a program of Russification would have commenced. LivLL said:
Rumblestripe said:
That is just one of the stupid things, even if Russia had managed to overrun Ukraine in its initial invasion, they could not hold it. They couldn't hold Afghanistan as the USSR and that is a much smaller country albeit with different geographical challenges.
Very different subduing the population of a country right on your border from one thousands of miles away. If Russia had been less cocky and actually planned properly, removal of the current heads of political and military establishments followed by a program of Russification would have commenced. hidetheelephants said:
LivLL said:
Rumblestripe said:
That is just one of the stupid things, even if Russia had managed to overrun Ukraine in its initial invasion, they could not hold it. They couldn't hold Afghanistan as the USSR and that is a much smaller country albeit with different geographical challenges.
Very different subduing the population of a country right on your border from one thousands of miles away. If Russia had been less cocky and actually planned properly, removal of the current heads of political and military establishments followed by a program of Russification would have commenced. Oh and Afghanistan had a common border with the USSR when invaded.
Rumblestripe said:
They seemed to believe that they would be welcomed.
Putin had been paying pro Russian Ukrainian politicians and parties for years. Unfortunately for him, as with a lot of Russian government spending, much of the money was simply trousered, while the reports they were feeding back were favourable. Hence, ahead of the invasion, Putin's people in Russia were telling him almost exactly what he wanted to hear. There was a big pro-Russian population who would welcome him, and the government was in no position to fight against the might of the Russian army. Neither turned out to be very correct.
The Gauge said:
I heard on the radio that the UK and western countries are still buying oil from Russia, only it has passed through various hands before it gets into ours. I think the explanation was similar to the oil tankers sail to another country and transfer their oil to other tankers, which we then buy from?
This was always going to happen. The good news is that as long as we only pay the going rate for our oil, we win, and they lose. The more palms the ruzzians have to grease to get us to buy their oil, the less money they get. It must be getting to the point where it is costing them to extract and distribute the stuff.Rumblestripe said:
They seemed to believe that they would be welcomed.
Oh and Afghanistan had a common border with the USSR when invaded.
True, my mistake. They did in fact struggle even with the old murder, poison, kill invade and install puppet leaders. Not so dissimilar after all.Oh and Afghanistan had a common border with the USSR when invaded.
Edited by LivLL on Tuesday 30th April 20:31
Condi said:
Rumblestripe said:
We'll see but I think most analysts now agree that Russia cannot win and importantly, politicians agree that they cannot be allowed to.
Many analysts also say Ukraine cannot win. They don't have the manpower or resources to push Russia out of their very heavily defended positions. How they get the Russians out of Eastern Ukraine I have no idea.
There’s speculation at the current rate of losses that Russia starts having difficulties replacing armoured vehicles in a couple of years.
Ultimately it’s all about the ability of Russia and Ukraine to re-arm themselves. Iranians might not be so free and easy with support as they’ve got their own issues now…
Condi said:
Rumblestripe said:
We'll see but I think most analysts now agree that Russia cannot win and importantly, politicians agree that they cannot be allowed to.
Many analysts also say Ukraine cannot win. They don't have the manpower or resources to push Russia out of their very heavily defended positions. Arguably they won on day three when Russia failed to quickly taken them over in something that looked very much like a coup. That's certainly when Russia lost.
Biggy Stardust said:
Cheib said:
The ICC needs to start charging people lower down the food chain….I am sure there will be detailed knowledge of which units are responsible for these crimes. I would love to know what is stopping the ICC from charging the commanding officers etc.
How would you envisage these charges being enforced, eg arrest & trial?Perversely I could see curtailment of future holiday destinations having an effect on commanders decisions and priorities.
Amnesty's are also a future bargaining chip.
Oliver Hardy said:
If Putin fails, people are betting on the the further breakup of the Soviet state. China has an eye on parts of Russia that used to be China and Turkey is backing the independence of some states, then there is Chechnya and George amongst others according to some you tube channels I have watched.
Over extension in Ukraine leading to bits of Russia breaking off is one of the ways that this ends and how Putin falls.The burden of the war is falling on bits of Russia a long way from Moscow, in plenty of these places it would be very difficult for central government forces to retake and it may well be as with the Wagner road trip that the internal security forces wouldn't want to fight for these areas.
Condi said:
Rumblestripe said:
We'll see but I think most analysts now agree that Russia cannot win and importantly, politicians agree that they cannot be allowed to.
Many analysts also say Ukraine cannot win. They don't have the manpower or resources to push Russia out of their very heavily defended positions. The main problem Russia has is if Ukraine isolate their lads on the ground then the scorched earth tactic of throwing meat at a field at a WW1 speed will be a horrible place to be for a month or two.
They are not winning hearts and minds.
Onto a broader geopolitical view, yes Kaderov having pancreatic cancer and only thinking his 16 year old can run it is a bullet magnet and it will be messy. China is looking for a distraction at the moment and like Russia they will pick on a weak opponent. Someone in Beijing will look at this as a better option than Taiwan as Russia without China is mullered. Russia also does not have the resources over the next 5 years to run two wars at opposite ends of a continent. If China take a view that Siberia could give them the energy supply of oil/gas they are importing. That is Russia screwed for an income and China comes off as a peace maker, which is what they want internally.
It will be interesting over the next 3 months as Russia can't sustain another year of this as they are eating thru their own Soviet era resources.
AmyRichardson said:
J4CKO said:
True, but it gives them a chance to back out of it "It was all him, he was a knobhead who made us do all this", anyone else coming in is likely younger, probably not as hell bent on taking territory whatever the cost, its Putins war, he is the boss and what he says goes but if he is gone, there is a chance of change.
As it is, there is no change, Russian mentality is of grim determination despite all indications that its going a bit s
t, two and a bit years, getting on for half a million killed and injured, war economy, sanctions, nuke threats yadda yadda, someone new, even if it isnt someone like Navalny (it wont be) might just want to get on with building palaces, rinsing the system, buying yachts etc.
Putin just kind of got on with it for a long time, Russia could be doing very nicely with tourism, trade and whatever, but no, he chose this stupid, pointless war, whatever he can gain has long since been surpassed by the mess he has created, anyone with half a brain can see that, even the biggest bully in the world will generally avoid getting a pasting but Putin is balls deep, stuck on this path, would anyone new, even eing Russian, really think its a great way to proceed ?
I've a similar impression; the hardest and most machiavellian of top-tier insiders are politically agnostic and they'd gnaw there own arm off to get a return to a bit of mafia-state business as usual. The ultra-nationalist shouters are all mid-tier or paid/obliged sock puppets. As it is, there is no change, Russian mentality is of grim determination despite all indications that its going a bit s
t, two and a bit years, getting on for half a million killed and injured, war economy, sanctions, nuke threats yadda yadda, someone new, even if it isnt someone like Navalny (it wont be) might just want to get on with building palaces, rinsing the system, buying yachts etc.Putin just kind of got on with it for a long time, Russia could be doing very nicely with tourism, trade and whatever, but no, he chose this stupid, pointless war, whatever he can gain has long since been surpassed by the mess he has created, anyone with half a brain can see that, even the biggest bully in the world will generally avoid getting a pasting but Putin is balls deep, stuck on this path, would anyone new, even eing Russian, really think its a great way to proceed ?
Putin hasn't really moved, nor does he seem intent to, to try a Oprichnina type experiment whereby he gets rid of the existing elite and grants power to ideologically aligned and personally loyal nobodies. The people at the top are still people who have their own interests and power bases.
You appear to have a very good understanding and knowledge of internal affairs in Russia. Do you mind my asking where you get your expertise from? As a former University student of Russian language, literature, politics and history, it's always nice to come across someone with similar insights and knowledge. I'm a bit behind on the minutiae of the personalities involved in Russian politics at the moment, I confess, can you point me to any interesting and reliable current sources?
Latest 7 min video of Russian infantry walking along a treeline in Stepove, Avdiivka, won't post a link but the body count is insane. Videos like that should be shown around the world to show the insanity and waste of human life that is war. Comments suggest they are stepping over about 97 corpses in just a few hundred metres...
Dan_The_Man said:
Latest 7 min video of Russian infantry walking along a treeline in Stepove, Avdiivka, won't post a link but the body count is insane. Videos like that should be shown around the world to show the insanity and waste of human life that is war. Comments suggest they are stepping over about 97 corpses in just a few hundred metres...
Which was then broadcast on Russian TV claiming to be dead Ukrainian soldiers, despite the fact some guns and jackets had the Russian flag! The propaganda machine just churns out misinformation so those signing up think it's going to be an easy battle.
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