Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4
Discussion
Bodo said:
dangerousB said:
Wombat3 said:
This has been obvious for quite a while...Russia is going to end up as China's b
h.
Nonetheless both are fked by their demographics in the medium to long term anyway, its only a question of how much damage they do in the interim.
Or equitable partners. Who knows.h.Nonetheless both are f
ked by their demographics in the medium to long term anyway, its only a question of how much damage they do in the interim. Wrong moves around Taiwan or their expansionist sabre rattling around the South China Sea could see them become more isolated quite quickly.
And China is already subject to some microelectronics sanctions and a small but steady outflow of western production to other countries with cheap labour.
Cheib said:
It’s interesting isn’t it….Putin must have been hoping for something more profound to come out of this meeting. Xi’s turned up and basically not given him anything except a bit of economic co-operation and looks like there had to be a firm “no nukes” statement to get that. From my amateur observation Russians now know they’re effectively in this on their own…if China were going to give them weapons it needs to be now because in three months Ukraine will have new MBT’s and AFV’s rolling.
One of the reasons the nations supporting Ukraine have given aid in iterative steps is because of the fear of escalation. Feels like there might be less fear now.
Putin gave him KFC. There were several bags taken in of the fast food, despite KFC saying it was pulling out and it was rebranded.One of the reasons the nations supporting Ukraine have given aid in iterative steps is because of the fear of escalation. Feels like there might be less fear now.
Fast moving thread, not gone back far, have we had the US escalation of Patriot delivery to Ukraine?
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/21/politics/us-pat...
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/21/politics/us-pat...
Digga said:
I agree with you on your last point.
I tend to disagree somewhat on the former. China does not see or use its currency as an economic tool. It is used as an internal, political tool. Witness the 'employment' created by the 'investment' in ghost cities, encouraged and bankrolled by both local and national government. they need the jobs, all of them, even if demographically they will begin to struggle to sustain what they have.
The Ghost cities are more of an internal pyramid scheme. No one owns land in China you lease it, no one pays tax or rates either. The source of income to local council tax is thru the building on top. Hence the rail to no where and buildings with no one in them. Now leases are up I tend to disagree somewhat on the former. China does not see or use its currency as an economic tool. It is used as an internal, political tool. Witness the 'employment' created by the 'investment' in ghost cities, encouraged and bankrolled by both local and national government. they need the jobs, all of them, even if demographically they will begin to struggle to sustain what they have.
I get the feeling that Russia needs China and this meeting that should have been an email was just a photo op. China has Russia in its pocket, but if China is spooked by Russia or anything reflecting badly, then who are they going to buy and sell from?
Look to more parts of Russia going under Chinas administration as long as Putin gets to keep his palace, Moscow and St Petersburg slavic. Putin also needs to pivot away from the War at some point and Chinese money paying people is a success if you tell them its because you are winning.
So the question will be can Russia hold this until the May 9th victory parade in Red Square or will Ukraine use it to over stretch the Russian forces as they need a win for this incremental gain. Much like the mobile phone strikes at the Russian New Years party are they going to use this event to hit them where it hurts?
sisu said:
The Ghost cities are more of an internal pyramid scheme. No one owns land in China you lease it, no one pays tax or rates either. The source of income to local council tax is thru the building on top. Hence the rail to no where and buildings with no one in them. Now leases are up
I realise that completely. Hence why I say, the CCP used the money that was bankrolled into that scheme to keep regions and workers looking busy.sisu said:
I get the feeling that Russia needs China and this meeting that should have been an email was just a photo op. China has Russia in its pocket, but if China is spooked by Russia or anything reflecting badly, then who are they going to buy and sell from?
Look to more parts of Russia going under Chinas administration as long as Putin gets to keep his palace, Moscow and St Petersburg slavic. Putin also needs to pivot away from the War at some point and Chinese money paying people is a success if you tell them its because you are winning.
As others say Putin and Xi met regularly before all this.Look to more parts of Russia going under Chinas administration as long as Putin gets to keep his palace, Moscow and St Petersburg slavic. Putin also needs to pivot away from the War at some point and Chinese money paying people is a success if you tell them its because you are winning.
In the longer game, whilst China has real challenges, Russia is a train wreck in slow motion. The military 'might' the amassad in the 50 years after WW2 has been decimated. At the same time, with demographics already flagging, they've conscripted hundreds of thousands from the provinces and disposed of them through the RA/Wagner meat grinder. Worse yet, of the urban elite, the bit that might help future economic growth, further hundreds of thousands have fled the nation, many potentially for good.
Russia had one economic chance to get on the global merry-go-round. It squandered it. Even though, eventually, trade will likely resume, they will never have the military and economic strength, or the goodwill, to return to the opportunity they had and pissed up the wall at the start of the 21st century. It is game over.
China on the other hand, we they still have a hand to play. Russia not.
UNSC, is it still a thing?
I ask as Russia takes over the presidency next month according to what I just read here
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukra...
How can this happen that an aggressive warmonger can be president of the UNSC and how can they use it to their advantage?
Interesting stuff as ever in yesterday's ISW update.
I ask as Russia takes over the presidency next month according to what I just read here
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukra...
How can this happen that an aggressive warmonger can be president of the UNSC and how can they use it to their advantage?
Interesting stuff as ever in yesterday's ISW update.
Digga said:
s others say Putin and Xi met regularly before all this.
In the longer game, whilst China has real challenges, Russia is a train wreck in slow motion. The military 'might' the amassad in the 50 years after WW2 has been decimated. At the same time, with demographics already flagging, they've conscripted hundreds of thousands from the provinces and disposed of them through the RA/Wagner meat grinder. Worse yet, of the urban elite, the bit that might help future economic growth, further hundreds of thousands have fled the nation, many potentially for good.
Russia had one economic chance to get on the global merry-go-round. It squandered it. Even though, eventually, trade will likely resume, they will never have the military and economic strength, or the goodwill, to return to the opportunity they had and pissed up the wall at the start of the 21st century. It is game over.
China on the other hand, we they still have a hand to play. Russia not.
Agree.In the longer game, whilst China has real challenges, Russia is a train wreck in slow motion. The military 'might' the amassad in the 50 years after WW2 has been decimated. At the same time, with demographics already flagging, they've conscripted hundreds of thousands from the provinces and disposed of them through the RA/Wagner meat grinder. Worse yet, of the urban elite, the bit that might help future economic growth, further hundreds of thousands have fled the nation, many potentially for good.
Russia had one economic chance to get on the global merry-go-round. It squandered it. Even though, eventually, trade will likely resume, they will never have the military and economic strength, or the goodwill, to return to the opportunity they had and pissed up the wall at the start of the 21st century. It is game over.
China on the other hand, we they still have a hand to play. Russia not.
...and it's hard to imagine Russia clinging to Belarus in the long term. Instead of one European neighbour, free and prosperous, setting a 'bad' example they'll have two...
For me it says everything about Russia that they invaded Westwards and cut themselves off from the West. So they desperately looked East to their remaining Allie and on the week Xi visits they're already describing China as their new enemy!
Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Wednesday 22 March 08:26
Russia had every chance and squandered it. Instead, they took every single page out of the book of bad decisions and made it their mantra.
It's like watching the Jeremy Kyle show on a national scale.
The voices of reason (and there were many) within Russia were never really in with a chance. It's now fait accompli.
It's like watching the Jeremy Kyle show on a national scale.
The voices of reason (and there were many) within Russia were never really in with a chance. It's now fait accompli.
Looks like Ukraine are starting to target Crimea a bit more now with a drone attack on Sevastopol this morning https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-live-...
The russians tried to move the focus of their efforts to Avdiivka (south of Bakhmut) which sounds like it ended in the usual manner - collossal losses for a tiny amount of progress. Plenty of grim footage around from there. Lots of talk over the last few days, including from the UK MOD, that their offensives are finally petering out and reaching their high water mark. I guess in a month we will see if the defence of Bakhmut was a good decision or not.
Some sort of attack on Sevastapol last night, maybe with air and sea drones though details are sparse, perhaps not succesful. Suggests that at least some of the black sea fleet remains there or they wouldn't be bothering - and ties in with the attack on the railway hub previously.
Some sort of attack on Sevastapol last night, maybe with air and sea drones though details are sparse, perhaps not succesful. Suggests that at least some of the black sea fleet remains there or they wouldn't be bothering - and ties in with the attack on the railway hub previously.
BikeBikeBIke said:
spookly said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/163823085499...
"Putin announced a reorientation of agricultural trade towards China and a strategic role for China in developing Russia's far east and high north -- a move Putin's own security apparatus has long resisted (for obvious reasons). Again, strategic wins for China."
Dear oh dear. Putin is a total clown. Stitching up his own people in exchange for a few years of survival.
Trying to gain territory in the west at the cost of losing far more in the east. Real 4d chess there."Putin announced a reorientation of agricultural trade towards China and a strategic role for China in developing Russia's far east and high north -- a move Putin's own security apparatus has long resisted (for obvious reasons). Again, strategic wins for China."
Dear oh dear. Putin is a total clown. Stitching up his own people in exchange for a few years of survival.
They had a perfectly good situation trading with China and the West. Now they've kicked the Western markets into touch and decided they don't like China. Morons.
Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Tuesday 21st March 20:37
As I wrote in the early months of the war, China will (economically) walk over the corpse of russia -or what's going to remain of it after all of this-.
That's not going to be good at all for us: we will have China right at our front door from then on and either we (EU and UK) take some serious measures or we will slowly but surely be the next to fall to China's economic expansion: first the less powerful nations -see what's happened already in Montenegro*- and then all others.
However that might be another topic for discussion.
(*) https://www.npr.org/2021/06/28/1010832606/road-dea...
That's not going to be good at all for us: we will have China right at our front door from then on and either we (EU and UK) take some serious measures or we will slowly but surely be the next to fall to China's economic expansion: first the less powerful nations -see what's happened already in Montenegro*- and then all others.
However that might be another topic for discussion.
(*) https://www.npr.org/2021/06/28/1010832606/road-dea...
HappyMidget said:
Looks like Ukraine are starting to target Crimea a bit more now with a drone attack on Sevastopol this morning https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-live-...
I was listening to Ben Hodges on YouTube last night, he reckons Ukraine will be going for Crimea and the landbridge in June and smashing up railways in Crimea supports that idea. I've heard credible experts make the point that unless Crimea returns to Ukraine Russia will inevitably invade again. Despite the risks, I think they'll have to do it.
We really do need to give Ukraine weapons with range. The risks of not doing that are greater than the risks of doing it IMHO.
Can Ukraine do it? Peter Zeihan reckons they can.
AlexIT said:
As I wrote in the early months of the war, China will (economically) walk over the corpse of russia -or what's going to remain of it after all of this-.
That's not going to be good at all for us: we will have China right at our front door from then on and either we (EU and UK) take some serious measures or we will slowly but surely be the next to fall to China's economic expansion: first the less powerful nations -see what's happened already in Montenegro*- and then all others.
China will be the winners in this when it all shakes out in a few years, they are siding with Russia to keep this conflict going as long as possible to keep the instability going in the EU.That's not going to be good at all for us: we will have China right at our front door from then on and either we (EU and UK) take some serious measures or we will slowly but surely be the next to fall to China's economic expansion: first the less powerful nations -see what's happened already in Montenegro*- and then all others.
As an added benefit they will leverage their position to access all the useful Russian resources and territory.
WestyCarl said:
AlexIT said:
As I wrote in the early months of the war, China will (economically) walk over the corpse of russia -or what's going to remain of it after all of this-.
That's not going to be good at all for us: we will have China right at our front door from then on and either we (EU and UK) take some serious measures or we will slowly but surely be the next to fall to China's economic expansion: first the less powerful nations -see what's happened already in Montenegro*- and then all others.
China will be the winners in this when it all shakes out in a few years, they are siding with Russia to keep this conflict going as long as possible to keep the instability going in the EU.That's not going to be good at all for us: we will have China right at our front door from then on and either we (EU and UK) take some serious measures or we will slowly but surely be the next to fall to China's economic expansion: first the less powerful nations -see what's happened already in Montenegro*- and then all others.
As an added benefit they will leverage their position to access all the useful Russian resources and territory.
mondeoman said:
WestyCarl said:
AlexIT said:
As I wrote in the early months of the war, China will (economically) walk over the corpse of russia -or what's going to remain of it after all of this-.
That's not going to be good at all for us: we will have China right at our front door from then on and either we (EU and UK) take some serious measures or we will slowly but surely be the next to fall to China's economic expansion: first the less powerful nations -see what's happened already in Montenegro*- and then all others.
China will be the winners in this when it all shakes out in a few years, they are siding with Russia to keep this conflict going as long as possible to keep the instability going in the EU.That's not going to be good at all for us: we will have China right at our front door from then on and either we (EU and UK) take some serious measures or we will slowly but surely be the next to fall to China's economic expansion: first the less powerful nations -see what's happened already in Montenegro*- and then all others.
As an added benefit they will leverage their position to access all the useful Russian resources and territory.
A new Silk Road could work well for China (also for Western Europe too, to an extent), but it does not even begin to address the demographic problem. Unless they forge an alliance that enables numbers from the outposts of Russia to become guest workers perhaps.
mondeoman said:
WestyCarl said:
AlexIT said:
As I wrote in the early months of the war, China will (economically) walk over the corpse of russia -or what's going to remain of it after all of this-.
That's not going to be good at all for us: we will have China right at our front door from then on and either we (EU and UK) take some serious measures or we will slowly but surely be the next to fall to China's economic expansion: first the less powerful nations -see what's happened already in Montenegro*- and then all others.
China will be the winners in this when it all shakes out in a few years, they are siding with Russia to keep this conflict going as long as possible to keep the instability going in the EU.That's not going to be good at all for us: we will have China right at our front door from then on and either we (EU and UK) take some serious measures or we will slowly but surely be the next to fall to China's economic expansion: first the less powerful nations -see what's happened already in Montenegro*- and then all others.
As an added benefit they will leverage their position to access all the useful Russian resources and territory.
At the current rate, by the end of this decade, China will effectively own, and control, Africa and Russia making them very influential globally.
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