Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

[BikeBikeBIke]

8bit said:

I was going to say it's a bit like the Kray twins; China is the brains of the duo and Russia is the psychopath keeping everyone in line through fear. Somewhat flawed analogy though as China are using Russia for their own gain at the expense of Russia, it would seem.

I think both Russia and China *wanted* to be credible modern nations (within the boundaries of staying autocratic enough to keep their corrupt leaders in place.)

Putin's blown that. I suspect Xi won't.

[Bright Halo]

BikeBikeBIke said:

8bit said:

I was going to say it's a bit like the Kray twins; China is the brains of the duo and Russia is the psychopath keeping everyone in line through fear. Somewhat flawed analogy though as China are using Russia for their own gain at the expense of Russia, it would seem.

I think both Russia and China *wanted* to be credible modern nations (within the boundaries of staying autocratic enough to keep their corrupt leaders in place.)

Putin's blown that. I suspect Xi won't.

What I don’t understand is why the Americans (Biden) don’t invite Xi for a visit to talk things over. Even if nothing is settled it will a) start dialogue between the two countries again and b) put the wind up Putin.

[BikeBikeBIke]

Bright Halo said:

What I don’t understand is why the Americans (Biden) don’t invite Xi for a visit to talk things over. Even if nothing is settled it will a) start dialogue between the two countries again and b) put the wind up Putin.

Perhaps they invite him and he says no? I can't think of any reason the USA would be reluctant to talk to Xi, I imagine Xi would find it very hard to openly talk to the USA without exposing the lie that they're the bad guys.

[8bit]

BikeBikeBIke said:

8bit said:

I was going to say it's a bit like the Kray twins; China is the brains of the duo and Russia is the psychopath keeping everyone in line through fear. Somewhat flawed analogy though as China are using Russia for their own gain at the expense of Russia, it would seem.

I think both Russia and China *wanted* to be credible modern nations (within the boundaries of staying autocratic enough to keep their corrupt leaders in place.)

Putin's blown that. I suspect Xi won't.

I guess I could see, to a point, how having Russia to heel helped Xi portray China as the leading nation in an Eastern alternative to the US-led west - look, here are two large, strong economies with powerful militaries to trade with and protect your small country which is suspicious of the west. As you say though, Putin isn't exactly helping that case much.

[aeropilot]

8bit said:

Digga said:

Puggit said:

One of the articles that Putin and Xi agreed and signed last week was not to move nuclear weapons in to other states. Putin has promptly broken that agreement by moving tactical nukes in to Belarus.

China has spoken... https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/164037310823...

I know China do politics and economics very differently to Western nations, but even they must be baffled and exasperated in equal measure by the utter bullsttery and stupidity of Russia. WTF is the actual point of sitting down to any sort of talks with barefaced and utterly unashamed liars?

Presumably because China can manipulate Russia to suit their own ends more and more the longer this goes on and the weaker Russia gets. They'll also be painting themselves as the stable, more secure option to trade with to nations which formerly aligned with Russia.

^^This.

[DeejRC]

Because Putin is the sideshow, he has been since 2016 when the US State Dept and DoD started their strategic repositioning away from Europe to Asia. China replaced Russia in their strategic thinking. All Putin has done has proven them correct. So long as Russia is stopped/stalled in Ukraine then frankly it’s job jobbed. However many die or the depredations of the Russians is irrelevant from the global strategic pov. It always was, it always will be. Same for European energy spikes or food spikes. The physical geographic security of Western Europe is fine, so some “relatively” cheap support has reaped hugely strategic dividends.
China isn’t wasting any resources on Russia. Moscow is paying for everything it gets sent and Beijing will take everything it can get.

[BikeBikeBIke]

DeejRC said:

China isn’t wasting any resources on Russia. Moscow is paying for everything it gets sent and Beijing will take everything it can get.

....and if China was going to give substantial help to Russia it would already have been doing so for a year or more.

[aeropilot]

BikeBikeBIke said:

DeejRC said:

China isn’t wasting any resources on Russia. Moscow is paying for everything it gets sent and Beijing will take everything it can get.

....and if China was going to give substantial help to Russia it would already have been doing so for a year or more.

I think China would rather see Russia weakened further tbh, which will benefit its own plans. China would love to get its north eastern Manchuria back within its own borders again, which it lost to Russia in back 1860.

That would have serious implications for Russia, as that includes the massive port of Vladivostok and the home base of the Russian Pacific fleet, as well as making USA and especially Japan more nervous.

[Iamnotkloot]

AlexIT said:

According to Der Spiegel, 18 Leopard 2 from Germany arrived in Ukraine.
In the meantime also 40 Marders have been deployed there.

https://archive.is/uPd1e

And the British tanks too...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/27/...

Hopefully these tanks (with the Abrams as well) will make a difference.

[DuncsGTi]

This pic just popped up on Instagram, a decent range of hardware arriving in theatre now. Hopefully it has the desired effect.

[aeropilot]

Iamnotkloot said:

AlexIT said:

According to Der Spiegel, 18 Leopard 2 from Germany arrived in Ukraine.
In the meantime also 40 Marders have been deployed there.

https://archive.is/uPd1e

And the British tanks too...

MOD did this interesting film of the recent training of the Ukraine crews on the Chally 2 here in the UK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9-Eghtai3s

[Steve vRS]

aeropilot said:

MOD did this interesting film of the recent training of the Ukraine crews on the Chally 2 here in the UK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9-Eghtai3s

Ironic that some of the crews being trained have more combat experience than the trainers.

[DuncsGTi]

Steve vRS said:

Ironic that some of the crews being trained have more combat experience than the trainers.

And yet every one of the Ukr troops i met were genuinely grateful for the training being delivered. The training team was largely drawn from SNCOs with a wealth of experience of combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Some on tanks, some other vehicles, some dismounted.

Many of them were soldiers due to circumstance. They joined to defend their country and have been involved in some pretty brutal combat. British experience in the last 20 years may be different to the current Ukr conflict but just as brutal at various points.

[Steve vRS]

DuncsGTi said:

Steve vRS said:

Ironic that some of the crews being trained have more combat experience than the trainers.

And yet every one of the Ukr troops i met were genuinely grateful for the training being delivered. The training team was largely drawn from SNCOs with a wealth of experience of combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Some on tanks, some other vehicles, some dismounted.

Many of them were soldiers due to circumstance. They joined to defend their country and have been involved in some pretty brutal combat. British experience in the last 20 years may be different to the current Ukr conflict but just as brutal at various points.

I wasn’t in any way belittling the Ukrainian soldiers, professional or accidental, or the British trainers. Upmost respect for all of them.

[BikeBikeBIke]

Steve vRS said:

DuncsGTi said:

Steve vRS said:

Ironic that some of the crews being trained have more combat experience than the trainers.

And yet every one of the Ukr troops i met were genuinely grateful for the training being delivered. The training team was largely drawn from SNCOs with a wealth of experience of combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Some on tanks, some other vehicles, some dismounted.

Many of them were soldiers due to circumstance. They joined to defend their country and have been involved in some pretty brutal combat. British experience in the last 20 years may be different to the current Ukr conflict but just as brutal at various points.

I wasn’t in any way belittling the Ukrainian soldiers, professional or accidental, or the British trainers. Upmost respect for all of them.

I think most people will got where you were coming from and the spirit in which it was intended.

Certainly made me smile.

(Interesting to hear Steve's first hand account.)

[myvision]

8 killed, 66 injured as Russia attacks 9 Ukrainian regions over past 24 hours

https://kyivindependent.com/8-killed-66-injured-as...

[J4CKO]

This war now feels like a boxing match in like the 10th round where both are battered to hell and are still slugging it out but you can tell the pace has slowed down markedly as they are so, so tired.

Even if Putin "Wins", not sure what he expects to really gain long term as nobody is going to forget this like we did Crimea etc, he thinks he has mates in China etc, but its just a totalitarian dictators club and they will sell each other out in a moment, China are circling to pick up the spoils and are a bit like a sub prime lender or a car insurance company that will insure a drink driver with seven accidents, if they pony up thousands.

I cant see it going back to how things had got with trade and tourism in my lifetime, I am sure there is always someone who is willing to do anything for some cash (Some folk make land mines and child porn for example) but I want nothing to do with Russia without a change of regime, not that I did before to be fair.

I really dont have a clue how it will go, I really dont have a clue how its actually going as am not really sure Russia are on the ropes or struggling, is what we hear a little bit more positive than the real situation ?

[vaud]

J4CKO said:

... I want nothing to do with Russia without a change of regime, not that I did before to be fair.

Problem is, change for what? The hardliners aren't going to tolerate a democracy. Medvedev would be a puppet.

The risk is actually losing Putin and getting a full on hardliner in charge (Putin is not the most extreme)

[J4CKO]

vaud said:

J4CKO said:

... I want nothing to do with Russia without a change of regime, not that I did before to be fair.

Problem is, change for what? The hardliners aren't going to tolerate a democracy. Medvedev would be a puppet.

The risk is actually losing Putin and getting a full on hardliner in charge (Putin is not the most extreme)

Yeah, thing is being utter s is going so well for them isnt it

So they "elect" (or however it works) and even bigger as perhaps the previous one wasn't quite enough of a ?

Pity Vlad the impaler isnt around any more, he could sort it out,

[Digga]

J4CKO said:

This war now feels like a boxing match in like the 10th round where both are battered to hell and are still slugging it out but you can tell the pace has slowed down markedly as they are so, so tired.

Even if Putin "Wins", not sure what he expects to really gain long term as nobody is going to forget this like we did Crimea etc, he thinks he has mates in China etc, but its just a totalitarian dictators club and they will sell each other out in a moment, China are circling to pick up the spoils and are a bit like a sub prime lender or a car insurance company that will insure a drink driver with seven accidents, if they pony up thousands.

I cant see it going back to how things had got with trade and tourism in my lifetime, I am sure there is always someone who is willing to do anything for some cash (Some folk make land mines and child porn for example) but I want nothing to do with Russia without a change of regime, not that I did before to be fair.

I really dont have a clue how it will go, I really dont have a clue how its actually going as am not really sure Russia are on the ropes or struggling, is what we hear a little bit more positive than the real situation ?

It's just like Rocky IV where he fights Drago.

Rocky : "We can't change anything, Adrian. All we can do is just go with what we are."
Adrienne : "You can't go with what you are you've read the papers, it's suicide!"