Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

[98elise]

Talksteer said:

Bodo said:

aeropilot said:

TGCOTF-dewey said:

TEKNOPUG said:

dukeboy749r said:

We may no longer be a very big military power...

Depends who you compare us to....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by...

France do well to spend essentially the same as Germany and Saudi and have a nuclear at sea deterrent + associated ssn fleet.

Perhaps France still do what the UK used to do, and their nuclear deterrent is paid for direct by Govt, and so does not show up in the defense budget...?

In any case, the statistic doesn't factor in the bang per buck. I need to leave now

I'm sure that the whole world is intimidated by our generous pensions for ex-servicemen from back when our military was larger! (Included in defence spending)

About half the costs of the armed forces are stuff that is subject to local cost of living. The rest of the stuff is likely to have an approximately similar cost in relation to capability.

The issue with the UK is that expeditionary capabilities are incredibly expensive compared to their combat power.

How is pensions for servicemen not defence spending? It's an employment cost. What budget should it be attributed to?

I have a forces pension due in the next few years. It is not generous at all! It won't even cover my energy bills.

[98elise]

Talksteer said:

bloomen said:

Talksteer said:

Nuclear war would kill a lot of people but most people who survive and countries and infrastructure are resilient.

A handful of arsey truckers can paralyse a country in peacetime.

If you go nuclear you will also go cyber, EMP too, which will fully finish off whatever vestiges of modern life continue.

The aftermath would do a wonderful job of ending most people even if they're relaxing in the countryside.

Uncontacted tribes and farmers in the Falklands will be fine. Your average suburbanite will be a casserole within a week.

Remember before the pandemic when you couldn't do lockdowns, get millions to work from home or develop and deploy vaccines to most of the world in a year.

Said truckers didn't paralyse the country they were a minor inconvenience.

The capacity and capabilities of a first world nation are massive in comparison to what we actually need to physically survive. So yes you might loose a good proportion of the mobile network, but its residual capability vastly exceeds the coms capability the UK had only decades ago, plenty enough to organise emergency rebuilding or distribution of food.

We could all still sleep inside a watertight dwelling if half the homes in the country were destroyed. Most of us have 10x the number of clothes we actually need.

The amount of shipping you would need to bring in the food needed to supply the country is around 1/50 the amount of trade which goes through our ports at the moment. Hell given our average BMI the average British person is carrying several months emergency rations around with them 24/7.

It's the same for virtually every commodity, ergo most of us will survive.

But yes this is mostly OT.

Assume a few warheads are aimed at our power stations. How do you feed people with no energy?

[Digga]

Gecko1978 said:

Digga said:

I'm pretty sure that, as with previous tech, the US in particular will have kit, the likes of which we have never seen. Not the sort of "look how big my ICBM is" crap that Putin and Russia grandstand, but things that would render a conflict escalation moot.

If I were Russia, I really would not bet on the fact that NATO (or certainly the USA) does not have some very big sticks hidden up their sleeves. The sort of stuff literally nobody needs to know about. They are simply there, in readiness, just in case.

Submaries pretty much do that plus add in any cyber warfare ability example could the US shut down networks in China etc maybe they could. Imagine if you turned electricity off in say Shanghi thr panic it would cause ans nit a shot fired....and then the missiles from the subs land....works both ways of course

The H bomb, at the end of WW2 was a prime example of asymmetric technology being decisive.

Hopefully we will never have to know what there is to know.

[Snoggledog]

98elise said:

Talksteer said:

bloomen said:

Talksteer said:

Nuclear war would kill a lot of people but most people who survive and countries and infrastructure are resilient.

A handful of arsey truckers can paralyse a country in peacetime.

If you go nuclear you will also go cyber, EMP too, which will fully finish off whatever vestiges of modern life continue.

The aftermath would do a wonderful job of ending most people even if they're relaxing in the countryside.

Uncontacted tribes and farmers in the Falklands will be fine. Your average suburbanite will be a casserole within a week.

Remember before the pandemic when you couldn't do lockdowns, get millions to work from home or develop and deploy vaccines to most of the world in a year.

Said truckers didn't paralyse the country they were a minor inconvenience.

The capacity and capabilities of a first world nation are massive in comparison to what we actually need to physically survive. So yes you might loose a good proportion of the mobile network, but its residual capability vastly exceeds the coms capability the UK had only decades ago, plenty enough to organise emergency rebuilding or distribution of food.

We could all still sleep inside a watertight dwelling if half the homes in the country were destroyed. Most of us have 10x the number of clothes we actually need.

The amount of shipping you would need to bring in the food needed to supply the country is around 1/50 the amount of trade which goes through our ports at the moment. Hell given our average BMI the average British person is carrying several months emergency rations around with them 24/7.

It's the same for virtually every commodity, ergo most of us will survive.

But yes this is mostly OT.

Assume a few warheads are aimed at our power stations. How do you feed people with no energy?

Chainsaws won't be effected by an EMP which means that lots of trees can be cut down and used to make fire. Petrol from your car can be used in a chainsaw and can also be used to help wet wood to burn. Then there are all the timber yards / builders depots which are stuffed full of seasoned wood. From there it's BBQs 7 days a week until power can be restored.

[bloomen]

98elise said:

Assume a few warheads are aimed at our power stations. How do you feed people with no energy?

I dig the faith expressed. I do not have it.

Two days of empty supermarket, and no prospect of a refill, and it's over.

Your average disaster happens while the rest of the world keeps on turning. If enough of it doesn't then all bets are off.

There could still be several weeks of food stored somewhere, and there won't be, but hordes of influencers would turn on each other before it was distributed.

I don't see any resilience anywhere outside of major militaries. At all.

Since the cost of national-scale resilience would be beyond comprehension that's the way it's got to be, but we've run towards zero breathing room and are still trying to squeeze further.

You could of course encourage people to account for lean times while times are normal, but most don't work that way and never will.

Edited by bloomen on Friday 31st March 11:00

[SpeckledJim]

I'd sadly agree. Two days without power and we'd be in real trouble.

We've little to no grit, initiative, practical skills or knowledge. Anything scrolling-related and we'd be golden.

[98elise]

Snoggledog said:

98elise said:

Talksteer said:

bloomen said:

Talksteer said:

Nuclear war would kill a lot of people but most people who survive and countries and infrastructure are resilient.

A handful of arsey truckers can paralyse a country in peacetime.

If you go nuclear you will also go cyber, EMP too, which will fully finish off whatever vestiges of modern life continue.

The aftermath would do a wonderful job of ending most people even if they're relaxing in the countryside.

Uncontacted tribes and farmers in the Falklands will be fine. Your average suburbanite will be a casserole within a week.

Remember before the pandemic when you couldn't do lockdowns, get millions to work from home or develop and deploy vaccines to most of the world in a year.

Said truckers didn't paralyse the country they were a minor inconvenience.

The capacity and capabilities of a first world nation are massive in comparison to what we actually need to physically survive. So yes you might loose a good proportion of the mobile network, but its residual capability vastly exceeds the coms capability the UK had only decades ago, plenty enough to organise emergency rebuilding or distribution of food.

We could all still sleep inside a watertight dwelling if half the homes in the country were destroyed. Most of us have 10x the number of clothes we actually need.

The amount of shipping you would need to bring in the food needed to supply the country is around 1/50 the amount of trade which goes through our ports at the moment. Hell given our average BMI the average British person is carrying several months emergency rations around with them 24/7.

It's the same for virtually every commodity, ergo most of us will survive.

But yes this is mostly OT.

Assume a few warheads are aimed at our power stations. How do you feed people with no energy?

Chainsaws won't be effected by an EMP which means that lots of trees can be cut down and used to make fire. Petrol from your car can be used in a chainsaw and can also be used to help wet wood to burn. Then there are all the timber yards / builders depots which are stuffed full of seasoned wood. From there it's BBQs 7 days a week until power can be restored.

How quickly can you restore a destroyed power station? Who's going to be rebuilding it when we're in survival mode.

I would guess it would be hours if not minutes before looting started at supermarkets, and with no resupply on the horizon the thin veneer of civilisation would end within days.

All my opinion of course.

[Blackpuddin]

Can't see anything on here about Erdogan removing his objection to Finland joining NATO? All things being equal their membership should go ahead in July. He's still against Sweden though, presumably they haven't provided sufficient bungs yet.

[CrutyRammers]

In actual news, Turkey has unanimously voted to accept Finland into NATO, after Hungary the other day. Their membership is now guaranteed. Who knows what coercion and wrangling has gone on behind the scenes there.
The indicative losses have dropped off over the last few days which matches reports that the Ru offensive is slowing. That said they are still pushing into the built up area of Bakhmut, albeit slowly. The flanks were stabilised and even pushed back somewhat however.
Lots of video clips of Ukr combined armoured formations looking ready to go, all part of the pre-counteroffensive psyops campaign. It's working to some extent if the large queues of traffic heading out of the south back over the Kerch bridge is anything to go by.

[Pupp]

Meanwhile, Ru takes the chair of the UN Security Council from tomorrow…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/31/absu...

[Pupp]

98elise said:

Snoggledog said:

98elise said:

Talksteer said:

bloomen said:

Talksteer said:

Nuclear war would kill a lot of people but most people who survive and countries and infrastructure are resilient.

A handful of arsey truckers can paralyse a country in peacetime.

If you go nuclear you will also go cyber, EMP too, which will fully finish off whatever vestiges of modern life continue.

The aftermath would do a wonderful job of ending most people even if they're relaxing in the countryside.

Uncontacted tribes and farmers in the Falklands will be fine. Your average suburbanite will be a casserole within a week.

Remember before the pandemic when you couldn't do lockdowns, get millions to work from home or develop and deploy vaccines to most of the world in a year.

Said truckers didn't paralyse the country they were a minor inconvenience.

The capacity and capabilities of a first world nation are massive in comparison to what we actually need to physically survive. So yes you might loose a good proportion of the mobile network, but its residual capability vastly exceeds the coms capability the UK had only decades ago, plenty enough to organise emergency rebuilding or distribution of food.

We could all still sleep inside a watertight dwelling if half the homes in the country were destroyed. Most of us have 10x the number of clothes we actually need.

The amount of shipping you would need to bring in the food needed to supply the country is around 1/50 the amount of trade which goes through our ports at the moment. Hell given our average BMI the average British person is carrying several months emergency rations around with them 24/7.

It's the same for virtually every commodity, ergo most of us will survive.

But yes this is mostly OT.

Assume a few warheads are aimed at our power stations. How do you feed people with no energy?

Chainsaws won't be effected by an EMP which means that lots of trees can be cut down and used to make fire. Petrol from your car can be used in a chainsaw and can also be used to help wet wood to burn. Then there are all the timber yards / builders depots which are stuffed full of seasoned wood. From there it's BBQs 7 days a week until power can be restored.

How quickly can you restore a destroyed power station? Who's going to be rebuilding it when we're in survival mode.

I would guess it would be hours if not minutes before looting started at supermarkets, and with no resupply on the horizon the thin veneer of civilisation would end within days.

All my opinion of course.

The Terry Nation novel, ‘Survivors’, which became a BBC series those of us of a certain vintage might recall, was quite an eloquent study of what might happen after some society destroying catastrophe (a pandemic in that case). Is a sobering read

[BikeBikeBIke]

Pupp said:

Meanwhile, Ru takes the chair of the UN Security Council from tomorrow…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/31/absu...

Am I wrong to suspect that will be deeply embarrassing for them, rather than us?

[7mike]

Pupp said:

Meanwhile, Ru takes the chair of the UN Security Council from tomorrow…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/31/absu...

Couldn't have picked a more appropriate date!

[pquinn]

BikeBikeBIke said:

Pupp said:

Meanwhile, Ru takes the chair of the UN Security Council from tomorrow…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/31/absu...

Am I wrong to suspect that will be deeply embarrassing for them, rather than us?

You seem to think Russians are capable of being embarrassed, so far I think they just dont have that emotion in them.


Plus the UN Security Council has kept working through all sorts of bigger past events, so despite noises from some that won't change. Just like Russia will stay a permanent member, not just because there's no way to change that, but because they're still a major nuclear power which is the basic reason they got that seat in the first place.

And in terms of 'what the fk?!' moments at the UN this would hardly rank considering what's happened on things like human rights committees.

[J4CKO]

Pupp said:

Meanwhile, Ru takes the chair of the UN Security Council from tomorrow…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/31/absu...

Yeah, heard they had taken the chair, plus all the coffee and biscuits from the meeting rooms, the printer and the dishwasher from the kitchen, blew it up killed the security guards, raped the receptionist then fked off.

[AstonZagato]

Talksteer said:

...snip
Hell given our average BMI the average British person is carrying several months emergency rations around with them 24/7.
snip....

I thought I was fat. It turns out that I'm a prepper!

[Adam.]

Pupp said:

Meanwhile, Ru takes the chair of the UN Security Council from tomorrow…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/31/absu...

does the Chair have influence over what is discussed, or is it just symbolic?

I assumed it was per the videos I have seen, just the guy/girl who introduces the topic and each speaker

[Digga]

AstonZagato said:

Talksteer said:

...snip
Hell given our average BMI the average British person is carrying several months emergency rations around with them 24/7.
snip....

I thought I was fat. It turns out that I'm a prepper!

Or prey for the leaner and meaner.

Are you grass or corn fed?

[Genuine Barn Find]

98elise said:

How quickly can you restore a destroyed power station? Who's going to be rebuilding it when we're in survival mode.

I would guess it would be hours if not minutes before looting started at supermarkets, and with no resupply on the horizon the thin veneer of civilisation would end within days.

All my opinion of course.

Having binge watched Black Summer on Netflix this week, I’d be inclined to agree. Although different in terms of scenario, i do think that the portrayal of ‘human nature’ in all of its forms would be the likely longer term outcome.

[TameRacingDriver]

Genuine Barn Find said:

98elise said:

How quickly can you restore a destroyed power station? Who's going to be rebuilding it when we're in survival mode.

I would guess it would be hours if not minutes before looting started at supermarkets, and with no resupply on the horizon the thin veneer of civilisation would end within days.

All my opinion of course.

Having binge watched Black Summer on Netflix this week, I’d be inclined to agree. Although different in terms of scenario, i do think that the portrayal of ‘human nature’ in all of its forms would be the likely longer term outcome.

Agreed. Look at the panic that occurred when a glorified cold was doing the rounds....

I still ask myself what the obsession with bog roll was all about...