Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

[Oliver Hardy]

Russia will wage a war for the rest of the decade and intends to destroy NATO

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1783052...

[hidetheelephants]

Oliver Hardy said:

Russia will wage a war for the rest of the decade and intends to destroy NATO

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1783052...

[LivLL]

Kadyrov was apparently in a coma with a diseased pancreas, this clown is Putin's favorite shoe in for Kadyrov when he dies.

Ukraine has openly stated they'll support Chechnya with progress to free the country from Russian control once their own fight is over.

It's all hot air again, aimed at introducing the Kadyrov replacement to the Russian population if any of them actually watch that garbage.

Unfortunately for this chap, he hasn't seen the formula yet - support Putin, promise the earth, fail, fall out of window in mysterious circumstances. I give him six months.

[Byker28i]

US sent long range ATACMS to Ukraine a couple of months ago and they've been used.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-r...

[RichFN2]

is-uk said:

A detailed analysis on the current state of the front line. https://global.espreso.tv/ukraine-war-map-war-live...

Similar to the channels I follow on telegram, as someone else said all of them are pro Ukrainian so a pinch of salt approach is probably wise.

However it's still likely to be a fairly accurate report on the current situation.

If anyone wants a good channel to follow on telegram I can recommend Combat Footage UA.

[J4CKO]

Byker28i said:

US sent long range ATACMS to Ukraine a couple of months ago and they've been used.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-r...

Imagine the planning that goes into firing one of those when you have limited supplies, must be so much going on behind the scenes before they commit to launching one.

[ConnectionError]

J4CKO said:

Byker28i said:

US sent long range ATACMS to Ukraine a couple of months ago and they've been used.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-r...

Imagine the planning that goes into firing one of those when you have limited supplies, must be so much going on behind the scenes before they commit to launching one.

Could they not fire a couple of dozen at the Crimea bridge and destroy it ?

Assuming they have sufficient etc...

[Biggy Stardust]

Oliver Hardy said:

Russia will wage a war for the rest of the decade and intends to destroy NATO

And I intend to sleep with Heidi Klum & Claudia Schiffer.

Reality might interfere, though.

[J4CKO]

ConnectionError said:

J4CKO said:

Byker28i said:

US sent long range ATACMS to Ukraine a couple of months ago and they've been used.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-r...

Imagine the planning that goes into firing one of those when you have limited supplies, must be so much going on behind the scenes before they commit to launching one.

Could they not fire a couple of dozen at the Crimea bridge and destroy it ?

Assuming they have sufficient etc...

Am sure its very complex and masses of intelligence into it, but it will be, literally and figuratively "Bang for buck" and not just down to hitting stuff, will be down to thinking several moves ahead, these things cost millions and are in short supply.

Its like hitting the refineries, that is done as if you hit the oil fields then you put one or two out of action its not a big deal, but if you hit the refining capacity then the crude has nowhere to go, so they have to shut down wells anyway as they have nowhere to process it.

I think if they have a good number of ATACMS then they may have the luxury of targeting things like the bridges again, but will depend on what strategy they are working to, like a massive game of chess where Russia can field unlimited pawns, so you need to hit the higher value pieces.

And the bill, the sixty billion, thats public stuff, whats going on in the background, god only knows, they had a delivery the other week that they used, all about keeping them guessing, lull them into a false sense of security.

Wonder if they could get close enough into Russia and plant one on the Kremlin

[Talksteer]

RizzoTheRat said:

768 said:

You can loft a Paveway.

You can, and the GPS/Laser guidance means it will be accurate, but I'd be interested to know how far you can lob it.

According to an online calculator, at 600mph lobbing it at 45 degrees would get you about 7.5km without air resistance. It's going to be pretty streamlined so maybe 5 or 6 km? Not sure I'd want to be in a 45 degree climb 5km away from a SAM system.

So I'd guess Paveway would be more use when something else has already suppressed the air defences

Cheib said:

So the Paveway is something that we’ll see once Ukraine has F-16’s ?! Almost sounds like there is some strategic planning going on here….rather than reactionary which is what a lot of the kit sent so far has been.

Probably yes, it's a GPS and laser guidance kit to turn a dumb bomb in to a smart one, but needs to be dropped from an aircraft. Presumably the F16's will already be capable of using it, whereas thier existing ex-soviet aircraft would need modifications to use it, although that hasn't stopped them modifying aircraft to use other western weapons they've been given..

Edited by RizzoTheRat on Wednesday 24th April 13:23

We can do some simple modelling - Assuming a 600mph attack run at 50m, the plane pulls up at 3.5g average until a 30 degree angle is made. This takes a bit under 4 seconds adding 275m to the altitude. Lets assume it takes a second to drop the bomb and snap roll in that process another 135m is added.

The plane is now unloaded at will pull a higher G as it reverses course and dives back down, depends on how brave/skilled the pilot is but its going to take a few seconds longer to get down than up as it also involves a turn in the horizontal as well. Total time for the maneuver is a little over 10 seconds.

I have no detailed knowledge to the degree in which a Paveway IVs trajectory can be optimised other than the fact that it can be. The bomb is released at 270m and will head upwards for another 13.5 seconds at which point it is then 2km high and 3km away from the launch point. Ballistically it would be able to go a maximum of 4.8km further if drag is not accounted for (drag is a relatively small factor with bombs as they are heavy and aerodynamic).

However Paveway bombs are not purely ballistic, they are poor gliders with a glide ratio of about 5 (poorly sourced data), so in this circumstances we could in theory go a further 10km, however we'll probably knock a km or two off to account for maneuver to hit the target. This would give us a total distance covered from release of 11-12km.

This is plenty enough to be tactically useful for destroying stuff like strong points and the attacking aircraft is a difficult target. The enemy isn't going to be able to sit there with search and engagement radars on waiting for aircraft to pop up. It's notable that the Ukrainians have attacked AWACs planes and now also an over the horizon radar of the type which can give air defence batteries warning of low level aircraft approaching.

The BUK and similar launchers are likely to be 10+km back from the very front lines otherwise they would be getting hit by infantry weapons and drones. They wouldn't be able to get a shot off at the aircraft even if alerted that the attack was about to happen. ManPADs have relatively short ranges against maneuvering and then running fighter jets, so if we assume that we don't want to come closer than 2km of the very front Russian line it takes around 2km to turn the plane around after release so there is still a useful 6-7km of range past the Russian front lines.

It's not a massive game changer as it's basically just a bigger GMLRS in effect and its range is entirely tactical. If you point a laser at something a ground launched missile is more prompt and likely adequate for all ground targets. Proper glide bombs have a much longer useful range and are safer for the launching aircraft.

[cliffords]

I still don't get why I can read all over the internet the types of equipment and numbers of, being delivered to Ukraine.
Unless its absolutely deliberately complete rubbish , why can I read all about it .

Cant the bad guys just say , right 100 of those were delivered we know 98 have been used 2 more and we will attack that city etc etc

What am I missing . Russia have not declared all the stuff they have coming in from North Korea, Iran and China ?

[TGCOTF-dewey]

cliffords said:

I still don't get why I can read all over the internet the types of equipment and numbers of, being delivered to Ukraine.
Unless its absolutely deliberately complete rubbish , why can I read all about it .

Cant the bad guys just say , right 100 of those were delivered we know 98 have been used 2 more and we will attack that city etc etc

What am I missing . Russia have not declared all the stuff they have coming in from North Korea, Iran and China ?

Because...

A) International oneupmanship and voter courting.

B) It may may make Russia re-consider its course of action.

C) It may encourage other nations to donate via public shaming.

D) For the insta

[pingu393]

Biggy Stardust said:

Oliver Hardy said:

Russia will wage a war for the rest of the decade and intends to destroy NATO

And I intend to sleep with Heidi Klum & Claudia Schiffer.

Reality might interfere, though.

Only sleep?

They'll be so disappointed, they'll kick you out of bed.

Just like I'd like to do to Russia, I'd rather give them a good forgot what I was going to say...

[pingu393]

cliffords said:

I still don't get why I can read all over the internet the types of equipment and numbers of, being delivered to Ukraine.
Unless its absolutely deliberately complete rubbish , why can I read all about it .

Cant the bad guys just say , right 100 of those were delivered we know 98 have been used 2 more and we will attack that city etc etc

What am I missing . Russia have not declared all the stuff they have coming in from North Korea, Iran and China ?

You are bang-on. I hope there is a lot of false information with these numbers.

[isaldiri]

cliffords said:

I still don't get why I can read all over the internet the types of equipment and numbers of, being delivered to Ukraine.
Unless its absolutely deliberately complete rubbish , why can I read all about it .

Cant the bad guys just say , right 100 of those were delivered we know 98 have been used 2 more and we will attack that city etc etc

What am I missing . Russia have not declared all the stuff they have coming in from North Korea, Iran and China ?

North Korea, Iran and China don't need to be loudly proclaiming to their populace they are helping Russia for popularity......

[pingu393]

I don't know if it's UKR or ruzzian, but the latest post on Denys' Telegram is of a T72? that looks like a garden shed with a barrel. The only target for a drone is the tracks.

No thick armour, just corrigated iron.

[hidetheelephants]

pingu393 said:

I don't know if it's UKR or ruzzian, but the latest post on Denys' Telegram is of a T72? that looks like a garden shed with a barrel. The only target for a drone is the tracks.

No thick armour, just corrigated iron.

I'm sure it's not resistant to a 155mm shell and no doubt there's a Ukrainian developing a drone that can fire an NLAW.

[pingu393]

hidetheelephants said:

pingu393 said:

I don't know if it's UKR or ruzzian, but the latest post on Denys' Telegram is of a T72? that looks like a garden shed with a barrel. The only target for a drone is the tracks.

No thick armour, just corrigated iron.

I'm sure it's not resistant to a 155mm shell and no doubt there's a Ukrainian developing a drone that can fire an NLAW.

The current threat is a drone with a grenade. Defending against multiple threats is not easy. Tank on tank fighting is not really happening, and if a 155 shell has your name on it, there's not much you can do about it.

I wouldn't be surprised if the tank is actually UKR.


When I was in Iraq, one of our threats was stainless steel welding wire strung across the road at head height. Our solution was a strip of steel in front of the guy on top cover. Simple solution eliminated a nasty threat.

This is a simple solution that may eliminate the latest threat. If NLAW drones come, then they will probably take the reactive armour off the tank and put it on the corrigated iron. The corrigated iron can also be upgraded to armour plate.

[paulrockliffe]

J4CKO said:

ConnectionError said:

J4CKO said:

Byker28i said:

US sent long range ATACMS to Ukraine a couple of months ago and they've been used.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-r...

Imagine the planning that goes into firing one of those when you have limited supplies, must be so much going on behind the scenes before they commit to launching one.

Could they not fire a couple of dozen at the Crimea bridge and destroy it ?

Assuming they have sufficient etc...

Am sure its very complex and masses of intelligence into it, but it will be, literally and figuratively "Bang for buck" and not just down to hitting stuff, will be down to thinking several moves ahead, these things cost millions and are in short supply.

Its like hitting the refineries, that is done as if you hit the oil fields then you put one or two out of action its not a big deal, but if you hit the refining capacity then the crude has nowhere to go, so they have to shut down wells anyway as they have nowhere to process it.

I think if they have a good number of ATACMS then they may have the luxury of targeting things like the bridges again, but will depend on what strategy they are working to, like a massive game of chess where Russia can field unlimited pawns, so you need to hit the higher value pieces.

And the bill, the sixty billion, thats public stuff, whats going on in the background, god only knows, they had a delivery the other week that they used, all about keeping them guessing, lull them into a false sense of security.

Wonder if they could get close enough into Russia and plant one on the Kremlin

ATACMS isn't really designed for bridge busting, it is less effective than Storm Shadow/SCALP, which is less effective than the German one that Sholtz is being a fanny about. Which is the reason it's so egregious that Germany is saying, "When you lose, don't worry we can still be friends" to Russia over the supply of proper weapons. Everyone knows that if they supply their cruise thing that the bridge is done, never to be built again and that Putin will take that personally, so Germany is basically hoping someone else sorts it for them and they don't have to help in too obvious a way. And we're not really supposed to say that out loud because any help is better than nothing, but jesus christ.

Anyway, ATACMS is needed to clear out the air defense over the Crimean Bridge so that Storm Shadow/SCALP can do the business, so hopefully a plan is being worked up. If the reports that 100 long range ATACMS were delivered a month ago, then there's a solid amount of action due in the next few weeks.

[borcy]

https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1783514363...

Russians have managed to nullify one weapon.