Credit Suisse - Is it going to go bust, if so what happens?
Discussion
It's hard to say but part of me says, its not like Unicredit and CS did not have enough time and rope to sort themselves out and the authorities can't really run policy just to keep a bunch of zombie basket-cases alive forever.
There have been stories of CS recently offering Chinese based depositors 6.5% returns on $2m cash deposits. It feels like we are heading towards some sort of end-game with CS. I would expect them to be taken over by the Swiss authorities and broken up/wound down in a structured manner, a bit like what happened to RBS in the U.K.
Dave Hedgehog said:
It's beginning to feel a lot like 2008.....So I assume this is just going to be a repeat of 2008, massive bailouts for the banks, no repercussions for the bankers and free to do the same thing again?
Joey Deacon said:
It's beginning to feel a lot like 2008.....
So I assume this is just going to be a repeat of 2008, massive bailouts for the banks, no repercussions for the bankers and free to do the same thing again?
dont forget massive amounts of QI to devalue savings, investments etc. So I assume this is just going to be a repeat of 2008, massive bailouts for the banks, no repercussions for the bankers and free to do the same thing again?
Digga said:
JagLover said:
Dave Hedgehog said:
dont forget massive amounts of QI to devalue savings, investments etc.
They do love that QE Only devalues cash and other savings.
Whoozit said:
Also devalues bonds which can get away with not even paying inflation level interest rates.
QE typically results in significant bond price increases and has been very beneficial for bond biased allocation strategies so the net effect isn't 'devaluing bonds' I'd suggest....isaldiri said:
Whoozit said:
Also devalues bonds which can get away with not even paying inflation level interest rates.
QE typically results in significant bond price increases and has been very beneficial for bond biased allocation strategies so the net effect isn't 'devaluing bonds' I'd suggest....Whoozit said:
isaldiri said:
Whoozit said:
Also devalues bonds which can get away with not even paying inflation level interest rates.
QE typically results in significant bond price increases and has been very beneficial for bond biased allocation strategies so the net effect isn't 'devaluing bonds' I'd suggest....And as far as 'devaluing bonds' is concerned, the impact of quantitative tightening seems to be far closer to that than quantitative easing given what has happened since the 2nd half of 2021 to date.....
Newc said:
If you're hankering for some SVB-style portfolio excitement, I see the CS 2026s are trading in the 20's. You might want to re-watch That Scene in Margin Call before lifting the offer though.
Way too exciting for me 
I'm no longer in an authorised role but the temptation to screen watch is still there. Shades of 2008/2001/1998.
Digga said:
Newc said:
If you're hankering for some SVB-style portfolio excitement, I see the CS 2026s are trading in the 20's. You might want to re-watch That Scene in Margin Call before lifting the offer though.
How will this affect my Enron share portfolio?Carl_Manchester said:
It's hard to say but part of me says, its not like Unicredit and CS did not have enough time and rope to sort themselves out and the authorities can't really run policy just to keep a bunch of zombie basket-cases alive forever.
Anecdote time: A mate of mine, at least ten years ago, took a trading role at CS to run down an existing credit book, and his annual target was to LOSE no more than X bazillion. Because mark to market accounting for trading books is ... err ... uhm ... ???isaldiri said:
Bond portfolio returns have been very good over the QE period from 2008-2020 because QE has been extremely supportive of bond prices. Not sure given that how one might suggest QE has only helped existing portfolios or devalus bonds.
And as far as 'devaluing bonds' is concerned, the impact of quantitative tightening seems to be far closer to that than quantitative easing given what has happened since the 2nd half of 2021 to date.....
Yes, take Vanguard UK government bonds... from 2009 to 2019 you'd have just about doubled your money. Which isn't too bad for something low risk. Nearly all that has been killed since Mar 2020 mind. And as far as 'devaluing bonds' is concerned, the impact of quantitative tightening seems to be far closer to that than quantitative easing given what has happened since the 2nd half of 2021 to date.....
10k in at 2009 would have been nearly 20k at 2019 and today 13k.
So they have done well, its just been this last couple of years. So if you invested in bonds recently (like I did in 2019), you won't have gone anywhere (or may well have gone down). My equities are, thankfully still up. But my bonds would have been down quite a bit. Good job I ditched them.
Otispunkmeyer said:
Digga said:
Newc said:
If you're hankering for some SVB-style portfolio excitement, I see the CS 2026s are trading in the 20's. You might want to re-watch That Scene in Margin Call before lifting the offer though.
How will this affect my Enron share portfolio?ATG said:
Newc said:
If you're hankering for some SVB-style portfolio excitement, I see the CS 2026s are trading in the 20's. You might want to re-watch That Scene in Margin Call before lifting the offer though.
20 what? Cents or bips?"We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price."
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff