Government Green Day - Gas Prices to increase

[Biker 1]

I just don't see how the grid will be upgraded within the timespan.
Even if all the pylons, transformers, cables, sub stations etc are upgraded & loads of new windmills are installed, where's the backup coming from when it's freezing in winter & there's no wind?
Doesn't really matter who's in charge in Westminster if you're sat there freezing during a power cut

[rscott]

Biker 1 said:

paulrockliffe said:

I can only speak for our village of 1000 homes, but every cable and substationy thing is under capacity if electricity is used for cars, let alone heating. No way that will be sorted by anyone, that's the basic reality.

Fortunately I don't think it's possible within our democratic structures for the Government to take so many of us so far over a cliff, so it simply isn't going to happen no matter how much unicorn thinking is applied to the reality.

We've been assessing a place out in the sticks. It's a barn conversion done around 5 years ago & the wealthy couple want a granny annexe extension. We have been data logging their electricity consumption: 2 EVs + air source heat pump = 57 amps consumption during the recent cold snap.
Main fuse is 60 amp, so it's already at capacity. There are some 15 other large properties in the area, all powered via ancient overhead lines to an antique transformer. I'm no expert, but if they all buy EVs & heat pumps, I would have thought that this infrastructure needs a major upgrade.
Who will pay for it? When will it be upgraded? Surely the national grid will also need upgrading - oh, & where is the additional electricity going to be generated?
Perhaps the penny is starting to drop....

National Grid have issued multiple reports confirming generation capacity isn't an issue in the future, but that the final leg of the grid will need updating to cope with load.

That's not a new thing though - 15 years ago we had an additional phase installed (at no charge to ourselves) to supply the economy 7 heaters in our property because the single phase couldn't cope. Too many properties on it meant voltage dropped to under 180v at peak load.

They recabled an area covering about 160 properties with an additional phase, but we were the only ones connected to it. Now most of the new builds over the last 10 years or so are on it.

[Cheib]

Biker 1 said:

paulrockliffe said:

I can only speak for our village of 1000 homes, but every cable and substationy thing is under capacity if electricity is used for cars, let alone heating. No way that will be sorted by anyone, that's the basic reality.

Fortunately I don't think it's possible within our democratic structures for the Government to take so many of us so far over a cliff, so it simply isn't going to happen no matter how much unicorn thinking is applied to the reality.

We've been assessing a place out in the sticks. It's a barn conversion done around 5 years ago & the wealthy couple want a granny annexe extension. We have been data logging their electricity consumption: 2 EVs + air source heat pump = 57 amps consumption during the recent cold snap.
Main fuse is 60 amp, so it's already at capacity. There are some 15 other large properties in the area, all powered via ancient overhead lines to an antique transformer. I'm no expert, but if they all buy EVs & heat pumps, I would have thought that this infrastructure needs a major upgrade.
Who will pay for it? When will it be upgraded? Surely the national grid will also need upgrading - oh, & where is the additional electricity going to be generated?
Perhaps the penny is starting to drop....

Sounds similar to the situation we’re in.

What il be interesting is if Uk Power deem it necessary to upgrade the three phase transformer weather they expect me to pay the bill !!

[230TE]

Hants PHer said:

You see, I look at Labour's proposals and they are talking about zero carbon power by 2030, whilst the Tories say 2035. Are they both simply making promises they know cannot be met? Or are they ignoring practical issues such as those you describe? Maybe our politicians will say anything to get elected, irrespective of how realistic their proposals might be. Power (no pun intended) at any cost, and to hell with reality?

That's the bit that baffles me, the enthusiasm with which our politicians are adopting hair-shirt environmentalism, while hoping it will generate economic growth in much the same way some people hope for fairies at the bottom of their garden. Where are the votes in all of this? Who is going to vote for compulsory £20k ASHP systems that are little better than the electric storage heaters we used to have before gas central heating was invented? It looks like the governing classes everywhere have succumbed to a strange sort of groupthink and are now issuing edicts and orders which have about as much connection with reality as those coming out of a Berlin bunker in April 1945.

Our current position is the result of 200 years of cheap abundant energy, without which there would have been no Industrial Revolution and we would all still be living in muddy hovels and eating turnips. You can't unwind that in ten or twenty years: Net Zero by 2100 might be achievable (and in fact essential given that oil and gas are a finite resource), but the policies now being attempted are unachievable: not enough skilled workers, not enough lithium, cobalt etc, the technology in many cases just isn't there yet (I wonder how well a battery-powered combine harvester would work, and how it would be recharged) and crucially there is not enough money to strip out and scrap vast quantities of decent functioning kit, replace it with brand new stuff which doesn't work as well,and then dig up every road in the country to upgrade the power supplies. Just so that one of the industrialised world's smaller CO2 emitters can get to net zero before anyone else. Being a world leader in shivering in the dark is not a goal to which most rational people would aspire. So why are our politicians salivating at the prospect? It makes no sense to me, and I was at Uni with some of these idiots so I should at least be able to understand the mindset.

At what point does reality kick in? When we get a blocking high for a fortnight in January and all the lights go out because our only generating capacity is solar and wind?

[pquinn]

rscott said:

National Grid have issued multiple reports confirming generation capacity isn't an issue in the future.

Caveated up to the hilt though, with all sorts of assumptions including aggressive management of demand.

[Hants PHer]

230TE said:

<edited for brevity>

That's the bit that baffles me, the enthusiasm with which our politicians are adopting hair-shirt environmentalism, while hoping it will generate economic growth in much the same way some people hope for fairies at the bottom of their garden. Where are the votes in all of this?.......

..........At what point does reality kick in? When we get a blocking high for a fortnight in January and all the lights go out because our only generating capacity is solar and wind?

Agreed, but watching Question Time the other night (yes, I know, I know) I was struck by the enthusiasm the studio audience displayed for net zero. Some of them were demanding it now - 2050 was far too late according to them. Of course, the Labour and Lib Dem panellists were nodding along in agreement.

Two things occurred to me:
1) some people are genuinely ignorant of what net zero would mean to their lives; they think it's just a case of more wind turbines, a nice shiny new heat pump paid for by government, an electric car and working from home......job done. They just assume the Clever Scientists have it all planned out. As my mother said the other day, quite literally: "Oh, we humans are pretty resourceful you know, I'm sure we'll work it all out."

2) some folk are terrified of the climate catastrophe. They are convinced that if we carry on as we're doing, we will very soon be plunged into irreversible climate hell, with billions dying, mass crop failure, civil wars and so on. Therefore they'll vote for anything, anything at all that might avert this imminent doomsday. This group tends to be very vocal on social media, radio 'phone ins and the like.

That said, the majority opinion of most people I've talked to goes something like this: "Energy security is something we should aim for eventually. In the meantime, let's use the gas and oil we've got and make a gradual transition to renewables."

[Terminator X]

Hants PHer said:

Agreed, but watching Question Time the other night (yes, I know, I know) I was struck by the enthusiasm the studio audience displayed for net zero. Some of them were demanding it now - 2050 was far too late according to them. Of course, the Labour and Lib Dem panellists were nodding along in agreement.

Two things occurred to me:
1) some people are genuinely ignorant of what net zero would mean to their lives; they think it's just a case of more wind turbines, a nice shiny new heat pump paid for by government, an electric car and working from home......job done. They just assume the Clever Scientists have it all planned out. As my mother said the other day, quite literally: "Oh, we humans are pretty resourceful you know, I'm sure we'll work it all out."

2) some folk are terrified of the climate catastrophe. They are convinced that if we carry on as we're doing, we will very soon be plunged into irreversible climate hell, with billions dying, mass crop failure, civil wars and so on. Therefore they'll vote for anything, anything at all that might avert this imminent doomsday. This group tends to be very vocal on social media, radio 'phone ins and the like.

That said, the majority opinion of most people I've talked to goes something like this: "Energy security is something we should aim for eventually. In the meantime, let's use the gas and oil we've got and make a gradual transition to renewables."

Keep em scared



TX.

[JagLover]

Hants PHer said:

Without wishing to sound too fulsome, you clearly know what you're talking about. So I'm wondering whether those in authority - of any colour rosette - are listening to people like you, or those who represent your profession.

You see, I look at Labour's proposals and they are talking about zero carbon power by 2030, whilst the Tories say 2035. Are they both simply making promises they know cannot be met? Or are they ignoring practical issues such as those you describe? Maybe our politicians will say anything to get elected, irrespective of how realistic their proposals might be. Power (no pun intended) at any cost, and to hell with reality?

You are perhaps assuming this is news to those in charge.

Artificial scarcity creating tens of billions for the well connected who can exploit it. First housing, then energy and now food. All the necessities of life being made deliberately far more expensive.

[JagLover]

Hants PHer said:

Agreed, but watching Question Time the other night (yes, I know, I know) I was struck by the enthusiasm the studio audience displayed for net zero. Some of them were demanding it now - 2050 was far too late according to them. Of course, the Labour and Lib Dem panellists were nodding along in agreement.

A QT audience from Bristol and no doubt carefully selected from those in Bristol.

Most public acceptance of this agenda is based upon lies. Lies about cost, economic growth and security of supply.

[rscott]

JagLover said:

Hants PHer said:

Agreed, but watching Question Time the other night (yes, I know, I know) I was struck by the enthusiasm the studio audience displayed for net zero. Some of them were demanding it now - 2050 was far too late according to them. Of course, the Labour and Lib Dem panellists were nodding along in agreement.

A QT audience from Bristol and no doubt carefully selected from those in Bristol.

Most public acceptance of this agenda is based upon lies. Lies about cost, economic growth and security of supply.

It'd be equally valid to say that most public objections to this agenda are based upon lies.

[Earthdweller]

Cheib said:

Biker 1 said:

paulrockliffe said:

I can only speak for our village of 1000 homes, but every cable and substationy thing is under capacity if electricity is used for cars, let alone heating. No way that will be sorted by anyone, that's the basic reality.

Fortunately I don't think it's possible within our democratic structures for the Government to take so many of us so far over a cliff, so it simply isn't going to happen no matter how much unicorn thinking is applied to the reality.

We've been assessing a place out in the sticks. It's a barn conversion done around 5 years ago & the wealthy couple want a granny annexe extension. We have been data logging their electricity consumption: 2 EVs + air source heat pump = 57 amps consumption during the recent cold snap.
Main fuse is 60 amp, so it's already at capacity. There are some 15 other large properties in the area, all powered via ancient overhead lines to an antique transformer. I'm no expert, but if they all buy EVs & heat pumps, I would have thought that this infrastructure needs a major upgrade.
Who will pay for it? When will it be upgraded? Surely the national grid will also need upgrading - oh, & where is the additional electricity going to be generated?
Perhaps the penny is starting to drop....

Sounds similar to the situation we’re in.

What il be interesting is if Uk Power deem it necessary to upgrade the three phase transformer weather they expect me to pay the bill !!

I’ve got a very rural house with wires running between poles to get to ours and a handful of nearby properties

We have frequent outages over winter with the weather as it is. Our heating like the other places around is oil and stoves, there is absolutely no way the infrastructure could support heat pumps, EV’s etc

We have a large older house, my brother in law has a business that installs heat pumps and he had a look at it a couple of years ago and basically said “don’t bother” as it would cost so much to insulate/upgrade the heating/improve the power supply etc that it wouldn’t be cost effective nor really keep the house warm

[turbobloke]

Earthdweller said:

Cheib said:

Biker 1 said:

paulrockliffe said:

I can only speak for our village of 1000 homes, but every cable and substationy thing is under capacity if electricity is used for cars, let alone heating. No way that will be sorted by anyone, that's the basic reality.

Fortunately I don't think it's possible within our democratic structures for the Government to take so many of us so far over a cliff, so it simply isn't going to happen no matter how much unicorn thinking is applied to the reality.

We've been assessing a place out in the sticks. It's a barn conversion done around 5 years ago & the wealthy couple want a granny annexe extension. We have been data logging their electricity consumption: 2 EVs + air source heat pump = 57 amps consumption during the recent cold snap.
Main fuse is 60 amp, so it's already at capacity. There are some 15 other large properties in the area, all powered via ancient overhead lines to an antique transformer. I'm no expert, but if they all buy EVs & heat pumps, I would have thought that this infrastructure needs a major upgrade.
Who will pay for it? When will it be upgraded? Surely the national grid will also need upgrading - oh, & where is the additional electricity going to be generated?
Perhaps the penny is starting to drop....

Sounds similar to the situation we’re in.

What il be interesting is if Uk Power deem it necessary to upgrade the three phase transformer weather they expect me to pay the bill !!

I’ve got a very rural house with wires running between poles to get to ours and a handful of nearby properties

We have frequent outages over winter with the weather as it is. Our heating like the other places around is oil and stoves, there is absolutely no way the infrastructure could support heat pumps, EV’s etc

We have a large older house, my brother in law has a business that installs heat pumps and he had a look at it a couple of years ago and basically said “don’t bother” as it would cost so much to insulate/upgrade the heating/improve the power supply etc that it wouldn’t be cost effective nor really keep the house warm

The National Grid published a report several years ago pointing out the major and costly infrastructure upgrades needed for mass use of EVs, from domestic fuses up. It was clearly politically unpalatable as a revised version appeared soon after, with watered down content and a reduction in warning style narrative. Then the religious zeal of Not Zero arrived and we have heatpumpitis plus dire energy security. However the Not Zero activists can point to the latter version and move heads between in the sand and up orifices while mumbling 'no problem'.

Deus ex machina solution imminent (not).

[Biker 1]

Given the apparent fragility of rural infrastructure, I'm hedging my bets on a new oil boiler & more efficient wood burner combo. After all, the big country piles around here are almost certainly reliant on oil & their owners likely have influence in political circles. My guess is this will be the cheapest way to heat in the medium term.
I read somewhere that 70% of properties in Northern Ireland rely on oil boilers - that could cause serious political problems if they all need to be scrapped imminently

[monkfish1]

Cheib said:

Biker 1 said:

paulrockliffe said:

I can only speak for our village of 1000 homes, but every cable and substationy thing is under capacity if electricity is used for cars, let alone heating. No way that will be sorted by anyone, that's the basic reality.

Fortunately I don't think it's possible within our democratic structures for the Government to take so many of us so far over a cliff, so it simply isn't going to happen no matter how much unicorn thinking is applied to the reality.

We've been assessing a place out in the sticks. It's a barn conversion done around 5 years ago & the wealthy couple want a granny annexe extension. We have been data logging their electricity consumption: 2 EVs + air source heat pump = 57 amps consumption during the recent cold snap.
Main fuse is 60 amp, so it's already at capacity. There are some 15 other large properties in the area, all powered via ancient overhead lines to an antique transformer. I'm no expert, but if they all buy EVs & heat pumps, I would have thought that this infrastructure needs a major upgrade.
Who will pay for it? When will it be upgraded? Surely the national grid will also need upgrading - oh, & where is the additional electricity going to be generated?
Perhaps the penny is starting to drop....

Sounds similar to the situation we’re in.

What il be interesting is if Uk Power deem it necessary to upgrade the three phase transformer weather they expect me to pay the bill !!

They wanted me to pay for it in full.

I said no. But the supply is what it is.

[monkfish1]

Biker 1 said:

Given the apparent fragility of rural infrastructure, I'm hedging my bets on a new oil boiler & more efficient wood burner combo. After all, the big country piles around here are almost certainly reliant on oil & their owners likely have influence in political circles. My guess is this will be the cheapest way to heat in the medium term.
I read somewhere that 70% of properties in Northern Ireland rely on oil boilers - that could cause serious political problems if they all need to be scrapped imminently

This for me also. Plus diesel genset to cover for outages.

I do really need a set of batteries in the mix too though as genset efficency is dire unless you are running near full load.

Which of course will be one of the unintended consequences of rationing electricity. Everyone buying generators! Assuming they dont ban them too. Ive got mine already

[Oliver Hardy]

wondering,

Surely it must be easier for some countries to reach low emissions than others.

Whenever I go to Portugal for example (not been for a few years) it surprises that there isn't greater use of solar penals for example, I guess Finland would have far greater difficulty in generating green energy all year round.

Second question is, why is it so difficult to insulate houses in the UK? Live in a mid 50s house, it has well insulation, loft insulation, double glazing. I put plastic insulation on some of the interir windows as a third layer, got insulation and draft excluders on all external doors,on Friday for exaqmple central heating was on for 12 hours used 1.782m3 of gas

[Biker 1]

Retro fitting insulation is a pig....
You have options including sticking it on the outside of your house, then applying render, but there are many issues to think about, including condensation risk, replacing the gutter system as the walls now stick out further, modifying window sills, drainage, wiring. Issues with your neighbours as many houses are semi-detached. It's a long list of expensive problems with long payback periods.
Whatever you do, avoid blowing in insulation to a cavity wall - it has a very nasty habit of going horribly wrong

[NRS]

Oliver Hardy said:

Randy Winkman said:

Ivan stewart said:

Randy Winkman said:

Industry in the UK suffers in comparison to other countries because electricity is so expensive but gas is cheap. That helps domestic users but not business. Past energy policy has mostly revolved around keeping householders happy.

So the answer is to make gas as or more expensive than electricity??!

The idea is that the cost balance will change for industry which will make the UK more competitive and help the country. Not saying that will happen but that's the idea.

But isn't gas cheaper because it is cheaper to produce and I guess transport as you don't loose gas. Isn't gas cheaper in all countries?

I don't really understand why huge consumers of electricity don't use gas and have gas generators but guess they are very expensive too.

budgie smuggler said:

Doesn't necessarily mean gas going up, could also mean they intend to address the 'last generating unit' mechanism that means gas prices effectively also set electricity prices.

Very true but is it likely, it would mean the government subsidising electricity, wouldn't it?

It's amazing to see all the comments from those who clearly don't understand the way electricity is priced. It's so far been based on the highest cost in the system. Currently and in all the huge prices we've seen recently is because of gas. If you detached the energy prices from being linked to the most expensive part of the system then electricity could be much cheaper than gas... therefore to sort the balance gas could stay the same price and electricity become a lot cheaper.

Written by someone in oil and gas, so not a eco-mentalist.

JagLover said:

mjb1 said:

As long as we're in a global market for gas and electricity the UK government has no control over energy prices (other than increasing them with taxes and tariffs).

We seem to have this every month or so, but there isn't a "global market" in gas. There are a series of regional markets that are connected within each other by pipelines and trade between them depends on LNG and the infrastructure to either create this or to convert back to gas.

New European capacity over the past few years would have made a big difference, which is precisely why there have been political campaigns to stop this happening.

The situation with electricity is even more localised as it needs dedicated infrastructure for the UK to be able to import electricity from the likes of Norway and France.

Partly, but due to cutting Russia out we're much more linked to LNG prices in Europe to set the price - that will link us to more global prices, as pipelines mean both the producer and buyer are much more strongly linked together whereas LNG is effectively completely free as long as there's a terminal.

Oliver Hardy said:

JagLover said:

The situation with electricity is even more localised as it needs dedicated infrastructure for the UK to be able to import electricity from the likes of Norway and France.

Isn't the cost of imported electricity something like 500% more expensive than electricity produced by UK power stations?

Absolutely not. The price is all over the place depending on demand and supply. You can have negative prices if there is too much energy in the system, or you can have very high prices if there is a shortage overall. France I think has mostly been importing from anywhere and everywhere due to their nukes being out of action. Norwegian electricity generation is extremely cheap as they built their hydro stuff years ago and so it's basically paid for apart from a bit of maintenance.

[Murph7355]

Earthdweller said:

Cheib said:

Biker 1 said:

paulrockliffe said:

I can only speak for our village of 1000 homes, but every cable and substationy thing is under capacity if electricity is used for cars, let alone heating. No way that will be sorted by anyone, that's the basic reality.

Fortunately I don't think it's possible within our democratic structures for the Government to take so many of us so far over a cliff, so it simply isn't going to happen no matter how much unicorn thinking is applied to the reality.

We've been assessing a place out in the sticks. It's a barn conversion done around 5 years ago & the wealthy couple want a granny annexe extension. We have been data logging their electricity consumption: 2 EVs + air source heat pump = 57 amps consumption during the recent cold snap.
Main fuse is 60 amp, so it's already at capacity. There are some 15 other large properties in the area, all powered via ancient overhead lines to an antique transformer. I'm no expert, but if they all buy EVs & heat pumps, I would have thought that this infrastructure needs a major upgrade.
Who will pay for it? When will it be upgraded? Surely the national grid will also need upgrading - oh, & where is the additional electricity going to be generated?
Perhaps the penny is starting to drop....

Sounds similar to the situation we’re in.

What il be interesting is if Uk Power deem it necessary to upgrade the three phase transformer weather they expect me to pay the bill !!

I’ve got a very rural house with wires running between poles to get to ours and a handful of nearby properties

We have frequent outages over winter with the weather as it is. Our heating like the other places around is oil and stoves, there is absolutely no way the infrastructure could support heat pumps, EV’s etc

We have a large older house, my brother in law has a business that installs heat pumps and he had a look at it a couple of years ago and basically said “don’t bother” as it would cost so much to insulate/upgrade the heating/improve the power supply etc that it wouldn’t be cost effective nor really keep the house warm

Similar here, only we wouldn’t be allowed to retrofit better insulation due to our listing. We also don't have huge amounts of cuts - usually when the weather brings trees down etc, but the networks guys are pretty good at fixing them.

On the electricity front, we had our main fuse uprated to 100A. Pretty sure it was UK Power Networks who did it... And would hope they checked the end to end situation first

I don't think the point is to have absolutely 100% of properties running on heat pumps... Just most.

[monkfish1]

Oliver Hardy said:

wondering,

Surely it must be easier for some countries to reach low emissions than others.

Whenever I go to Portugal for example (not been for a few years) it surprises that there isn't greater use of solar penals for example, I guess Finland would have far greater difficulty in generating green energy all year round.

Second question is, why is it so difficult to insulate houses in the UK? Live in a mid 50s house, it has well insulation, loft insulation, double glazing. I put plastic insulation on some of the interir windows as a third layer, got insulation and draft excluders on all external doors,on Friday for exaqmple central heating was on for 12 hours used 1.782m3 of gas

As Biker 1 alluded to. Condensation. Interstatial condensation

Smashing a load of insulation in is fraught with risk, especially on older housing stock with solid walld and no damp proof course. There is no easy "fits all" formula. Untold damage has already been done to older building due to lack of understanding.

I guarantee a government driven insulation program will breate many issues around this. Especially since it will attract the usual cowboy fly by night chancers taking the government coin.

Add to which, the kind of measures you describe wont get you anywhere close at all to modern standards.