Scottish Politics / Independence - Vol 12
Discussion
A nice one liner from Effie today.
"The problem is that Scottish nationalists still think that they are in 2021 when the SNP won 47.7% of the vote. But those days are past now and in the past they must remain. "
She also points out that in the coming Holyrood election Yoons will have a version of the SNP 1 Green 2 tactic. In Glasgow for example Labour is likely to sweep the board on constituency seats So voting Labour 1 and 2 is wasting a list vote. Labour won't get any Glasgow list seats. The tactic for Yoons in Glasgow and many other central belt areas is Labour 1 then your choice of unionist party 2. So Labour get the FPTP seats and as many lost seats as possible go to Yoon parties.
https://www.effiedeans.com/2024/04/the-independenc...
"The problem is that Scottish nationalists still think that they are in 2021 when the SNP won 47.7% of the vote. But those days are past now and in the past they must remain. "
She also points out that in the coming Holyrood election Yoons will have a version of the SNP 1 Green 2 tactic. In Glasgow for example Labour is likely to sweep the board on constituency seats So voting Labour 1 and 2 is wasting a list vote. Labour won't get any Glasgow list seats. The tactic for Yoons in Glasgow and many other central belt areas is Labour 1 then your choice of unionist party 2. So Labour get the FPTP seats and as many lost seats as possible go to Yoon parties.
https://www.effiedeans.com/2024/04/the-independenc...
Edited by irc on Friday 26th April 10:33
The SNP cant afford 2 elections in a year. They are already crowdfunding the GE as it is. Unless both the GE and HR are on the same day this could vankrupt the party.
Rishi is supposedly not holding his GE until later in the year.
How long can the Scottish Government hold off until they need to set an election date?
Rishi is supposedly not holding his GE until later in the year.
How long can the Scottish Government hold off until they need to set an election date?
Silverbullet767 said:
Anas Sarwar has now filled a vote of no confidence on the entire Scottish government.
Delicious!
Hey come on! I mentioned that half an hour ago!! Delicious!
Not the smartest of moves because there's a fair chance that if Humza does nothing the SNP government will win it because the Greens/Alba will abstain as their issue is with the leader and not the party and they won't want to vote themselves out of a secure job for the next two years.
It could be another stick to push Humza nearer the exit door though if Greens/Alba bluff that they would vote the government down and SNP MSPs start to believe their cushy jobs might be under threat...
Edited by Evercross on Friday 26th April 11:08
Evercross said:
Hey come on! I mentioned that half an hour ago!!
Not the smartest of moves because there's a fair chance that if Humza does nothing the SNP government will win it because the Greens/Alba will abstain as their issue is with the leader and not the party and they won't want to vote themselves out of a secure job for the next two years.
It could be another stick to push Humza nearer the exit door though if Greens/Alba bluff that they would vote the government down and SNP MSPs start to believe their cushy jobs might be under threat...
Apologies, edited my post.Not the smartest of moves because there's a fair chance that if Humza does nothing the SNP government will win it because the Greens/Alba will abstain as their issue is with the leader and not the party and they won't want to vote themselves out of a secure job for the next two years.
It could be another stick to push Humza nearer the exit door though if Greens/Alba bluff that they would vote the government down and SNP MSPs start to believe their cushy jobs might be under threat...
Edited by Evercross on Friday 26th April 11:08
Evercross said:
Labour has tabled a VoNC in the SNP government.
Bah!!
I think the success or failure of such a vote is entirely dependent on the appetite of the Green weenies to lose their seats, and the hatred they have for the SNP after the weeks events. There is almost certainly zero prospect of Peewee Herman and Big Bird getting re-elected, even as handful-of-votes list MSPs, so they might have to venture into the real-world employment market after a Holyrood GE. I suspect Ash Reagan would also be on a shoogly peg as an Alba MSP, so there too might be someone who would vote in favour of another two years worth of MSP salary and a weakened SNP minority administration, in preference to a P45 and a trip down the job centre. Bah!!
It would be amusing to see the SNP and Yousless limp on as a minority administration with no allies, getting no legislation passed, and unable to defend against opposition motions to repeal some of the insane legislation that has been voted in by the SNP/Green coalition. Although I'd love to see both elections happen this year, and the SNP as a viable going concern cease to exist. I fear I would require a liver transplant following such an eventuality, such would be the scale of celebratory imbibement.
Roderick Spode said:
I think the success or failure of such a vote is entirely dependent on the appetite of the Green weenies to lose their seats, and the hatred they have for the SNP after the weeks events. There is almost certainly zero prospect of Peewee Herman and Big Bird getting re-elected, even as handful-of-votes list MSPs, so they might have to venture into the real-world employment market after a Holyrood GE. I suspect Ash Reagan would also be on a shoogly peg as an Alba MSP, so there too might be someone who would vote in favour of another two years worth of MSP salary and a weakened SNP minority administration, in preference to a P45 and a trip down the job centre.
It would be amusing to see the SNP and Yousless limp on as a minority administration with no allies, getting no legislation passed, and unable to defend against opposition motions to repeal some of the insane legislation that has been voted in by the SNP/Green coalition. Although I'd love to see both elections happen this year, and the SNP as a viable going concern cease to exist. I fear I would require a liver transplant following such an eventuality, such would be the scale of celebratory imbibement.
It would be amusing to see the SNP and Yousless limp on as a minority administration with no allies, getting no legislation passed, and unable to defend against opposition motions to repeal some of the insane legislation that has been voted in by the SNP/Green coalition. Although I'd love to see both elections happen this year, and the SNP as a viable going concern cease to exist. I fear I would require a liver transplant following such an eventuality, such would be the scale of celebratory imbibement.
Pretty much my point above, but I think the endgame here is Humza losing his leadership and the SNP carrying on for two years with someone who isn't a fk'ng numbnut who has burnt their bridges with everyone at the helm.
Does Labours Government No Confidence vote superceed Conservatives No Confidence in First Minister Vote or are we now voting on both?
If it doesnt we may see Humza limp on for another few years in charge of a broken party that will get nothing done.
OR
We could end up with SNP in minority charge with no First Minister which could stil automatically trigger an election anyway if they decend into infighting rather than choose a new leader within 28 days.
If it doesnt we may see Humza limp on for another few years in charge of a broken party that will get nothing done.
OR
We could end up with SNP in minority charge with no First Minister which could stil automatically trigger an election anyway if they decend into infighting rather than choose a new leader within 28 days.
Roderick Spode said:
I think the success or failure of such a vote is entirely dependent on the appetite of the Green weenies to lose their seats, and the hatred they have for the SNP after the weeks events. There is almost certainly zero prospect of Peewee Herman and Big Bird getting re-elected, even as handful-of-votes list MSPs, so they might have to venture into the real-world employment market after a Holyrood GE. I suspect Ash Reagan would also be on a shoogly peg as an Alba MSP, so there too might be someone who would vote in favour of another two years worth of MSP salary and a weakened SNP minority administration, in preference to a P45 and a trip down the job centre.
There’s a good chance that Harvie would be out certainly, as one would assume the Glasgow list would mainly return SNP MSPs and possibly a Tory or 2 in the event of Labour taking the constituencies.Slater is in a different position though, she’s currently 2nd of 2 Greens in Lothian, the first being the Presiding Officer. The Greens have won 2 list seats here at the last 2 elections. Before that, Margo McDonald was the second elected list MSP. If Johnstone retires at the election, presumably Slater would be first on the list and have a decent chance of getting elected. If she doesn’t, what happens? Does Johnstone stand as an independent, do the Greens bump her from first place for Slater? Do they have to put her first meaning Slater has far less chance of election? All a result of the stupid Modified D’Hondt voting system.
Either way, there’s a fag paper between the Greens and Tories in terms of list votes in Glasgow and one would assume a similar result next time out with both down. Lothian is a very different kettle of fish and the SNP losing seats, especially to the Lib Dems or Tories rather than Labour, could result in some interesting results from the list. In short, I reckon Green number 1 in Lothian will be elected.
Edited by alangla on Friday 26th April 11:34
Klippie said:
Did anyone notice if Sturgeon, Swinney and Mathison were in the chamber yesterday...they seem to have dissapeared from the public eye.
Swinney and Matheson voted yesterday, so presumably were there. Sturgeon didn’t, so may not have been. Whether they were in the chamber for FMQs is a different question https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees...alangla said:
Klippie said:
Did anyone notice if Sturgeon, Swinney and Mathison were in the chamber yesterday...they seem to have dissapeared from the public eye.
Swinney and Matheson voted yesterday, so presumably were there. Sturgeon didn’t, so may not have been. Whether they were in the chamber for FMQs is a different question https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees...alangla said:
sherman said:
I think she is curently avoiding public gatherings that the police are anywhere near incase she gets lifted.
I don’t think that’s necessary true, she seems to have taken part in several votes on Wednesday going by the Parliament website.
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