Medieval Warm period due to NAO

Medieval Warm period due to NAO

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mybrainhurts

90,809 posts

256 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
WE WANT FIVE, WE WANT FIVE....rofl

turbobloke

104,074 posts

261 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
Here's the desaturation science in the post before the last one, this was 17:48 hrs yesterday. I've added a small amount of extra detail to assist those unfamiliar with the concepts.

Yesterday I said:
This is where we come to the desaturation myth I mentioned and explored earlier. Some claim that broadening of the carbon dioxide absorption lines at higher ambient pressures and temperatures near ground level isn't present at altitude, and that this provides an escape. In line broadening, the absorbption peak is only smeared out; the total amount of energy absorbed is not affected. Even so, let's ignore this and look to conditions where the overlapping broad peaks of e.g. carbon dioxide and water vapour thin and separate out (de-overlapping as I called it in an earlier post).

Taking my previously explained desaturation myth example, at a height of 16 kilometers the atmospheric density is about one tenth that at sea level and the temperature -40 deg C. The peak wavelengths should absorb completely in about 100 meters, since near the surface of the Earth it takes place in about 10 meters (Hug's published experimentation). Absorption band shoulders which are claimed to be up to 5% - 10% as effective but according to Hug, much less than 5%, would absorb completely in 10 to 20 times as much distance, i.e. 1 or 2 kilometers. When doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, they would do the same in 0.5 km to 1 km. The shorter distance is not an increase in temperature, as we are now 16+1 ~ 17 km up in the lower stratosphere the jet stream should be a good mixer. This process cannot add heat to the lower atmosphere anyway, because the stratosphere does not mix efficiently with the lower atmosphere across the tropopause.

Therefore this is not at all a convincing way to get any extra heating near-surface or in the troposphere.

Earlier today I posted about the non-existent warming that's taking place by this 'extra heat' mechanism. The lower stratosphere has cooled, not warmed, the only blips are El Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions, marked by the vertical downtag on the upper scale.



As I said earlier, the overall cooling trend can be seen clearly. This plot montage shows the average over the entire planet, the average over the Northern Hemisphere (0° to 90°N), the average over the tropics (20°N to 20°S), and the average over the Southern Hemisphere (0° to 90°S). The smallest interval marked on the temperature scale is equivalent to 0.25 deg C. Data originally via Dr Roy Spencer (MSU4).

Repeat (as repetition is in vogue):

Where's the warming from desaturation at this relevant altitude?

How will ANY warming up there get back to ground level past the tropopause?

turbobloke

104,074 posts

261 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
mybrainhurts said:
WE WANT FIVE, WE WANT FIVE....rofl
hehe

How could anybody not oblige smile

nigelfr

Original Poster:

1,658 posts

192 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
Let's keep it really simple.

The Sun warms the surface of the planet and the surface of the planet warms the atmosphere. Now because nett heat flows from hot to cold, then the atmosphere must be cooler than the surface. The rate of heat flow is dependant on the temperature difference between the two. If the difference is large, the rate of heat flow is large. If the difference is smaller the rate of heat flow is smaller. Heat transfers from layer to layer of different composition, temperature and pressure until it reaches "outer space."(Very cold)

The outermost part of the atmosphere is always at the temperature of "outer space". If you add a bit of CO2 to that bit of atmosphere it will be a tiny bit warmer, so you need "another layer" of atmosphere between it and outer space.

However the original layer is now warmer and so are all the preceding layers back down to the surface. So the bit nearest the surface of the Earth is a tiny bit warmer. This mean that the temperature difference between the surface and the atmosphere is reduced. So less heat can escape the surface which warms up until the earlier rate of heat flow is reached.


s2art

18,937 posts

254 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
nigelfr said:
Let's keep it really simple.

The Sun warms the surface of the planet and the surface of the planet warms the atmosphere. Now because nett heat flows from hot to cold, then the atmosphere must be cooler than the surface. The rate of heat flow is dependant on the temperature difference between the two. If the difference is large, the rate of heat flow is large. If the difference is smaller the rate of heat flow is smaller. Heat transfers from layer to layer of different composition, temperature and pressure until it reaches "outer space."(Very cold)

The outermost part of the atmosphere is always at the temperature of "outer space". If you add a bit of CO2 to that bit of atmosphere it will be a tiny bit warmer, so you need "another layer" of atmosphere between it and outer space.

However the original layer is now warmer and so are all the preceding layers back down to the surface. So the bit nearest the surface of the Earth is a tiny bit warmer. This mean that the temperature difference between the surface and the atmosphere is reduced. So less heat can escape the surface which warms up until the earlier rate of heat flow is reached.
This is truly simplistic nonsense. Why post garbage when a quick google would disabuse you of your silly notions?
Check out the temperature of the stratosphere, or even better the thermosphere. Still think the outer part of the atmosphere is the temperature of 'outer space'?

Jasandjules

69,960 posts

230 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
nigelfr said:
Let's keep it really simple.
From what you have just posted there, either you have very little understanding of the correct processes or I do...... My knowledge is only based on A Level physics mind, but I have in mind one of the fundamental laws of thermodynamics... Heat flows from hot to cold.........

nigelfr

Original Poster:

1,658 posts

192 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
Jasandjules said:
nigelfr said:
Let's keep it really simple.
From what you have just posted there, either you have very little understanding of the correct processes or I do...... My knowledge is only based on A Level physics mind, but I have in mind one of the fundamental laws of thermodynamics... Heat flows from hot to cold.........
Almost remembered it right, but like I said in my post..
nigelfr said:
Now because nett heat flows from hot to cold, then the atmosphere must be cooler than the surface.



Now any more moths that wish to self immolate in the flame of my argument better get in there quick, before I make the obvious dénouement? How about you TB? Or do you know the answer already?

nigelfr

Original Poster:

1,658 posts

192 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
s2art said:
nigelfr said:
Let's keep it really simple.

The Sun warms the surface of the planet and the surface of the planet warms the atmosphere. Now because nett heat flows from hot to cold, then the atmosphere must be cooler than the surface. The rate of heat flow is dependant on the temperature difference between the two. If the difference is large, the rate of heat flow is large. If the difference is smaller the rate of heat flow is smaller. Heat transfers from layer to layer of different composition, temperature and pressure until it reaches "outer space."(Very cold)

The outermost part of the atmosphere is always at the temperature of "outer space". If you add a bit of CO2 to that bit of atmosphere it will be a tiny bit warmer, so you need "another layer" of atmosphere between it and outer space.

However the original layer is now warmer and so are all the preceding layers back down to the surface. So the bit nearest the surface of the Earth is a tiny bit warmer. This mean that the temperature difference between the surface and the atmosphere is reduced. So less heat can escape the surface which warms up until the earlier rate of heat flow is reached.
This is truly simplistic nonsense. Why post garbage when a quick google would disabuse you of your silly notions?
Check out the temperature of the stratosphere, or even better the thermosphere. Still think the outer part of the atmosphere is the temperature of 'outer space'?
Oh dear, S2art: the devil's in the detail don't you know? Look up "thermosphere" or "stratosphere" in Wiki and you'll see the error you're making.

I'll reveal the answer in the next hour or so.

turbobloke

104,074 posts

261 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
s2art said:
nigelfr said:
Let's keep it really simple.

The Sun warms the surface of the planet and the surface of the planet warms the atmosphere. Now because nett heat flows from hot to cold, then the atmosphere must be cooler than the surface. The rate of heat flow is dependant on the temperature difference between the two. If the difference is large, the rate of heat flow is large. If the difference is smaller the rate of heat flow is smaller. Heat transfers from layer to layer of different composition, temperature and pressure until it reaches "outer space."(Very cold)

The outermost part of the atmosphere is always at the temperature of "outer space". If you add a bit of CO2 to that bit of atmosphere it will be a tiny bit warmer, so you need "another layer" of atmosphere between it and outer space.

However the original layer is now warmer and so are all the preceding layers back down to the surface. So the bit nearest the surface of the Earth is a tiny bit warmer. This mean that the temperature difference between the surface and the atmosphere is reduced. So less heat can escape the surface which warms up until the earlier rate of heat flow is reached.
This is truly simplistic nonsense. Why post garbage when a quick google would disabuse you of your silly notions?
Check out the temperature of the stratosphere, or even better the thermosphere. Still think the outer part of the atmosphere is the temperature of 'outer space'?
Let's forget the tropopause too, it might not matter if it's forgotten.

Anyway, at least - so far - I haven't had to repeat the positive feedback refutation.....

Thinking back, there's one upside to that IPCC feedback inflation chart, in the space of another three or four reports the carbon dioxide forcing will have shrunk to zero, at which point there'll be nothing for the non-existent positive feedback to act on.

Then, the IPCC will have got something (about) right.

It's a nice planet - good atmosphere.

Meanwhile, 93 million miles away (give or take):

http://www.spacew.com/sunnow/

s2art

18,937 posts

254 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
nigelfr said:
s2art said:
nigelfr said:
Let's keep it really simple.

The Sun warms the surface of the planet and the surface of the planet warms the atmosphere. Now because nett heat flows from hot to cold, then the atmosphere must be cooler than the surface. The rate of heat flow is dependant on the temperature difference between the two. If the difference is large, the rate of heat flow is large. If the difference is smaller the rate of heat flow is smaller. Heat transfers from layer to layer of different composition, temperature and pressure until it reaches "outer space."(Very cold)

The outermost part of the atmosphere is always at the temperature of "outer space". If you add a bit of CO2 to that bit of atmosphere it will be a tiny bit warmer, so you need "another layer" of atmosphere between it and outer space.

However the original layer is now warmer and so are all the preceding layers back down to the surface. So the bit nearest the surface of the Earth is a tiny bit warmer. This mean that the temperature difference between the surface and the atmosphere is reduced. So less heat can escape the surface which warms up until the earlier rate of heat flow is reached.
This is truly simplistic nonsense. Why post garbage when a quick google would disabuse you of your silly notions?
Check out the temperature of the stratosphere, or even better the thermosphere. Still think the outer part of the atmosphere is the temperature of 'outer space'?
Oh dear, S2art: the devil's in the detail don't you know? Look up "thermosphere" or "stratosphere" in Wiki and you'll see the error you're making.

I'll reveal the answer in the next hour or so.
Now you are merely trolling. Nobody is that silly. Check out the temps and try and reconcile your statements about atmospheric temps being the same as 'outer space'. What temperature do you think the statosphere is at? Very cold?

nigelfr

Original Poster:

1,658 posts

192 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
s2art said:
nigelfr said:
s2art said:
nigelfr said:
Let's keep it really simple.

The Sun warms the surface of the planet and the surface of the planet warms the atmosphere. Now because nett heat flows from hot to cold, then the atmosphere must be cooler than the surface. The rate of heat flow is dependant on the temperature difference between the two. If the difference is large, the rate of heat flow is large. If the difference is smaller the rate of heat flow is smaller. Heat transfers from layer to layer of different composition, temperature and pressure until it reaches "outer space."(Very cold)

The outermost part of the atmosphere is always at the temperature of "outer space". If you add a bit of CO2 to that bit of atmosphere it will be a tiny bit warmer, so you need "another layer" of atmosphere between it and outer space.

However the original layer is now warmer and so are all the preceding layers back down to the surface. So the bit nearest the surface of the Earth is a tiny bit warmer. This mean that the temperature difference between the surface and the atmosphere is reduced. So less heat can escape the surface which warms up until the earlier rate of heat flow is reached.
This is truly simplistic nonsense. Why post garbage when a quick google would disabuse you of your silly notions?
Check out the temperature of the stratosphere, or even better the thermosphere. Still think the outer part of the atmosphere is the temperature of 'outer space'?
Oh dear, S2art: the devil's in the detail don't you know? Look up "thermosphere" or "stratosphere" in Wiki and you'll see the error you're making.

I'll reveal the answer in the next hour or so.
Now you are merely trolling. Nobody is that silly. Check out the temps and try and reconcile your statements about atmospheric temps being the same as 'outer space'. What temperature do you think the statosphere is at? Very cold?
The answer is there if you look out the window right now. It's night. Do I have to spell it out?

TB's calculation uses average incoming solar radiation etc and looks plausible, but at night there's no incoming solar radiation. In addition, his altitude vs temp plot is no longer valid at night.

It even gives the game away in the Wiki articles I pointed out to you.

ETA I'm using "outer space" to donate where there is no atmosphere. There is no discontinuity between where the atmosphere ends and outer space begins, therefore the temperature of the outermost limit of the atmosphere is the same as that of outer space. About 3 K, but I didn't want to get embroiled in an argument about the exact figure.

Edited by nigelfr on Friday 10th April 21:01

nigelfr

Original Poster:

1,658 posts

192 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
s2art said:
nigelfr said:
Let's keep it really simple.

The Sun warms the surface of the planet and the surface of the planet warms the atmosphere. Now because nett heat flows from hot to cold, then the atmosphere must be cooler than the surface. The rate of heat flow is dependant on the temperature difference between the two. If the difference is large, the rate of heat flow is large. If the difference is smaller the rate of heat flow is smaller. Heat transfers from layer to layer of different composition, temperature and pressure until it reaches "outer space."(Very cold)

The outermost part of the atmosphere is always at the temperature of "outer space". If you add a bit of CO2 to that bit of atmosphere it will be a tiny bit warmer, so you need "another layer" of atmosphere between it and outer space.

However the original layer is now warmer and so are all the preceding layers back down to the surface. So the bit nearest the surface of the Earth is a tiny bit warmer. This mean that the temperature difference between the surface and the atmosphere is reduced. So less heat can escape the surface which warms up until the earlier rate of heat flow is reached.
This is truly simplistic nonsense. Why post garbage when a quick google would disabuse you of your silly notions?
Check out the temperature of the stratosphere, or even better the thermosphere. Still think the outer part of the atmosphere is the temperature of 'outer space'?
Let's forget the tropopause too, it might not matter if it's forgotten.
Yes, let's forget the tropopause now, because it's night. No heat from Sun = no tropopause.

Don't tell me they didn't have a Sun when you got your degrees.

turbobloke

104,074 posts

261 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
nigelfr said:
turbobloke said:
s2art said:
nigelfr said:
Let's keep it really simple.

The Sun warms the surface of the planet and the surface of the planet warms the atmosphere. Now because nett heat flows from hot to cold, then the atmosphere must be cooler than the surface. The rate of heat flow is dependant on the temperature difference between the two. If the difference is large, the rate of heat flow is large. If the difference is smaller the rate of heat flow is smaller. Heat transfers from layer to layer of different composition, temperature and pressure until it reaches "outer space."(Very cold)

The outermost part of the atmosphere is always at the temperature of "outer space". If you add a bit of CO2 to that bit of atmosphere it will be a tiny bit warmer, so you need "another layer" of atmosphere between it and outer space.

However the original layer is now warmer and so are all the preceding layers back down to the surface. So the bit nearest the surface of the Earth is a tiny bit warmer. This mean that the temperature difference between the surface and the atmosphere is reduced. So less heat can escape the surface which warms up until the earlier rate of heat flow is reached.
This is truly simplistic nonsense. Why post garbage when a quick google would disabuse you of your silly notions?
Check out the temperature of the stratosphere, or even better the thermosphere. Still think the outer part of the atmosphere is the temperature of 'outer space'?
Let's forget the tropopause too, it might not matter if it's forgotten.
Yes, let's forget the tropopause now, because it's night. No heat from Sun = no tropopause.

Don't tell me they didn't have a Sun when you got your degrees.
???

turbobloke

104,074 posts

261 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
With page setting at about 20 posts/page it's still on this one, but again:



The tropopause minimum acts as a barrier between the troposphere and stratosphere because mixing and heat transport by convection can only occur when temperature decreases with height.

Jasandjules

69,960 posts

230 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
nigelfr said:
Now any more moths that wish to self immolate in the flame of my argument better get in there quick, before I make the obvious dénouement? How about you TB? Or do you know the answer already?
Are you suggesting the Ionosphere is close to Space Temps?

Jasandjules

69,960 posts

230 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
nigelfr said:
The answer is there if you look out the window right now. It's night. Do I have to spell it out?

ETA I'm using "outer space" to donate where there is no atmosphere. There is no discontinuity between where the atmosphere ends and outer space begins, therefore the temperature of the outermost limit of the atmosphere is the same as that of outer space. About 3 K, but I didn't want to get embroiled in an argument about the exact figure.

Edited by nigelfr on Friday 10th April 21:01
Are you suggesting that the Sun does not heat the other side of the world whilst we are at night? It's "Global Warming" remember...........

To my knowledge the temp of the Ionosphere (which I think is pretty much the highest point, it's the point at which the particles are charged IIRC from my many years ago Astrophysics) and is about 100-150k warmer than space which is I think about 2k (where K is Kelvin) or -270 odd Centigrade - Now, I'm going from memory so I may well be wrong....

But you appear now to be suggesting that you are in fact referring to the outer limit of the atmosphere which is effectively space.. This is purile observation. Perhaps I can assist. The Temperature of steam in a boiling kettle will be close to the temp of the water in the boiling kettle... IS that the sort of line of reasoning you are now attempting to put up?

nigelfr

Original Poster:

1,658 posts

192 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
With page setting at about 20 posts/page it's still on this one, but again:



The tropopause minimum acts as a barrier between the troposphere and stratosphere because mixing and heat transport by convection can only occur when temperature decreases with height.
Ah that was most satisfactory, just whupped my sons at Wii Golf.


It's true that convection requires that the temperature decreases with height. But is convection the only means of mixing and heat transport? The answer is no.

Your plot is a snap shot of, I imagine, average conditions. Due to the Earth's rotation, the temperatures on the night side differ from those on the day side, so there is mixing as the various layers heat up at different rates. There are also large differences between the temperatures at the tropics and the poles, also allowing heat to be exchanged.You can also see that the tropopause is higher at the equator than the poles.

See the picture below:



In addition, if you really want to get complicated, there are atmospheric gravity waves, upwellings, changes of state, chemical processes etc.

In short: the tropopause is not a barrier to heat transfer.

It's also common sense: you know that the Earth radiates heat into space. And you know that it's the Suns rays hitting the surface that cause it to heat up. Well it's obvious that there isn't some barrier between the two.


mybrainhurts

90,809 posts

256 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
Guam said:
Because Nige cant be arsed to google for himself he prefers TB Me or anybody else to do the work then he can gallop over to an internet temple of AGW get them to critique the science then tappy lappy back here and post a response like he just thought it UP smile
That had occurred to me...

How many computers do you reckon he's got running...?

And how does he find time for toilet breaks...?

hehe

s2art

18,937 posts

254 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
nigelfr said:
turbobloke said:
With page setting at about 20 posts/page it's still on this one, but again:



The tropopause minimum acts as a barrier between the troposphere and stratosphere because mixing and heat transport by convection can only occur when temperature decreases with height.
Ah that was most satisfactory, just whupped my sons at Wii Golf.


It's true that convection requires that the temperature decreases with height. But is convection the only means of mixing and heat transport? The answer is no.

Your plot is a snap shot of, I imagine, average conditions. Due to the Earth's rotation, the temperatures on the night side differ from those on the day side, so there is mixing as the various layers heat up at different rates. There are also large differences between the temperatures at the tropics and the poles, also allowing heat to be exchanged.You can also see that the tropopause is higher at the equator than the poles.

See the picture below:



In addition, if you really want to get complicated, there are atmospheric gravity waves, upwellings, changes of state, chemical processes etc.

In short: the tropopause is not a barrier to heat transfer.

It's also common sense: you know that the Earth radiates heat into space. And you know that it's the Suns rays hitting the surface that cause it to heat up. Well it's obvious that there isn't some barrier between the two.
Try harder. This isnt even good trolling. God help you if you are trying to be serious.

Edited by s2art on Friday 10th April 23:21

turbobloke

104,074 posts

261 months

Friday 10th April 2009
quotequote all
nigelfr said:
turbobloke said:
With page setting at about 20 posts/page it's still on this one, but again:



The tropopause minimum acts as a barrier between the troposphere and stratosphere because mixing and heat transport by convection can only occur when temperature decreases with height.
It's true that convection requires that the temperature decreases with height. But is convection the only means of mixing and heat transport? The answer is no.
Conduction in a thin atmosphere (at altitude) isn't much good either - which leaves radiation. Given the modest +0.123 deg C/decade temperature trend of the lower troposphere to 2002 is already being claimed by near-ground carbon dioxide we needn't go there, but to get more warming of lower layers, to any extent, via 360 deg re-radiation there would need to be an increase in temperature higher up - though as posted earlier the stratosphere isn't helping out. Nor is anything else.

Lower stratosphere cooling with only volcanic eruptions breaking the downward trend:



Middle / upper troposphere cooling, with an El Nino year peak :


And for completeness the lower troposphere not showing much sign of help from above or anywhere else, which is the basic problem with MMGWT:


Upper troposphere specific humidity can't even help out with (non-existent) feedback as it's getting drier:


So all routes down are off limits. Desaturation is a dead end, and the tropopause is still there still doing what it does.