It's BAD, it's STILL very bad REPRISE thread (13 months on)
Discussion
Guam said:
Possibly correct but that will add up to a lessening in confidence which then completes the circular reasoning 
Normally one would expect an increase in confidence following a general election, however CMD is doing such a stellar job of snatching defeat from the Jaws of Victory that I doubt we will see this manifesting as it has in past recessions
Cheers
But this isn't being driven by confidence (I'm not sure that that is a good driver after examples like the dotcom boom of the millenium, and the recent housing bubble). This is the simple fact that we have spent more than we have, and now Ocean finance are coming knocking and we are scraping by on a minimum repayment whilst still trying to live a champagne lifestyle. It IS NOT sustainable, however confident or not you are, the bare figures tell the truth, sadly.Normally one would expect an increase in confidence following a general election, however CMD is doing such a stellar job of snatching defeat from the Jaws of Victory that I doubt we will see this manifesting as it has in past recessions
Cheers
I reckon it is the duty of every man, woman and child of Great Britain to get ourselves into as much debt as possible and then declare bankruptcy or go down the IVA route. Oh, wait, we have. 
Ooh, ooh, I know... let's blame bankers. I will... wait for it... start an e-petition. If that doesn't fix things, I don't know what will.
Ooh, ooh, I know... let's blame bankers. I will... wait for it... start an e-petition. If that doesn't fix things, I don't know what will.
Edited by ShadownINja on Thursday 11th February 10:58
anonymous said:
[redacted]
January was interesting. A few more people than I expected stuck their heads up over the parapet and made noises about wanting to do something. However,like little turtles, they have pulled their heads back down and retreated into their shells. A combination of pretty poor economic data and the uncertainty of who the next occupant of number 10 will be, and whether or not they have a majority will make the first half of this year very dull imhoKen Sington said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
January was interesting. A few more people than I expected stuck their heads up over the parapet and made noises about wanting to do something. However,like little turtles, they have pulled their heads back down and retreated into their shells. A combination of pretty poor economic data and the uncertainty of who the next occupant of number 10 will be, and whether or not they have a majority will make the first half of this year very dull imhoThere will be some pick up in many industries come Spring or early summer, but in many many sectors, it is whether people can survive until then....
Getting rid of this shower in Govt will result in an natural "bounce" in the economy, how sustained it will be is another matter.
If the blind stupid ones remains in power, I genuinely think we are fxcked for the next 30 years at least.
Getting rid of this shower in Govt will result in an natural "bounce" in the economy, how sustained it will be is another matter.
If the blind stupid ones remains in power, I genuinely think we are fxcked for the next 30 years at least.
February consumer confidence index came in at 46 vs market expectations of 55
Very Very poor number. Lowest level since April 2009 and early 1980's.
Not good ahead of next week payrol numbers.
More evidence that the situations is still dire... and will continue to be so.
(sorry, I'm not the grim reaper, honest)
Very Very poor number. Lowest level since April 2009 and early 1980's.
Not good ahead of next week payrol numbers.
More evidence that the situations is still dire... and will continue to be so.
(sorry, I'm not the grim reaper, honest)
The only interesting article this week I've found is this :-
King hints at QE resumption
To me the latter bit there reads as though funny money will be created with the associated inflation until the country cannot afford the luxury foreign imported goods it is used to!
King hints at QE resumption
sharecast said:
...My particular concerns at present derive from the state of the world economy. Recovery in our largest export market -- the euro area -- appears to have stalled," he said.
"This nascent recovery is fragile," he said. "The tensions that underlay the build-up of large world imbalances have not been resolved," he added.
http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.c..."This nascent recovery is fragile," he said. "The tensions that underlay the build-up of large world imbalances have not been resolved," he added.
To me the latter bit there reads as though funny money will be created with the associated inflation until the country cannot afford the luxury foreign imported goods it is used to!
Tangent Police said:
Alex said:
Cameron is already back-tracking on the Tories promise of "swingeing cuts" as a soon as they are elected.
He is trying to THIS IS NOT ACCEPTABLE
Well it might still be a bit bad. The debt is still there.
"The yield on 10-year Treasuries – the benchmark price of global capital – surged 30 basis points in just two days last week to over 3.9pc, the highest level since the Lehman crisis. Alan Greenspan, ex-head of the US Federal Reserve, said the abrupt move may be "the canary in the coal mine", a warning to Washington that it can no longer borrow with impunity. He said there is a "huge overhang of federal debt, which we have never seen before".
David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff said Treasury yields have ratcheted up 90 basis points since December in a "destabilising fashion", for the wrong reasons. Growth has not been strong enough to revive fears of inflation. Commodity prices peaked in January and US home sales have fallen for the last three months, pointing to a double-dip in the housing market."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/75330...
Quite how Greenspan can mouth off when it's largely his fault is quite amusing. And if people are nervous about US debt they are starting to s
t it about club Med.
"derlying default risk has risen for Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain, as well as for Ireland, Slovakia and Malta even if credit markets keep missing the point. The world's top holder of EU debt does understand. Greece is the "tip of the iceberg", said the deputy-governor of China's central bank. "The main concern today, obviously, is Spain and Italy."
"The yield on 10-year Treasuries – the benchmark price of global capital – surged 30 basis points in just two days last week to over 3.9pc, the highest level since the Lehman crisis. Alan Greenspan, ex-head of the US Federal Reserve, said the abrupt move may be "the canary in the coal mine", a warning to Washington that it can no longer borrow with impunity. He said there is a "huge overhang of federal debt, which we have never seen before".
David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff said Treasury yields have ratcheted up 90 basis points since December in a "destabilising fashion", for the wrong reasons. Growth has not been strong enough to revive fears of inflation. Commodity prices peaked in January and US home sales have fallen for the last three months, pointing to a double-dip in the housing market."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/75330...
Quite how Greenspan can mouth off when it's largely his fault is quite amusing. And if people are nervous about US debt they are starting to s
t it about club Med."derlying default risk has risen for Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain, as well as for Ireland, Slovakia and Malta even if credit markets keep missing the point. The world's top holder of EU debt does understand. Greece is the "tip of the iceberg", said the deputy-governor of China's central bank. "The main concern today, obviously, is Spain and Italy."
Edited by Fittster on Sunday 28th March 23:42
I've just had my legs slapped for not updating this thread with this news story:
"The Bank for International Settlements does not mince words. Sovereign debt is already starting to cross the danger threshold in the United States, Japan, Britain, and most of Western Europe, threatening to set off a bond crisis at the heart of the global economy.
The aftermath of the financial crisis is poised to bring a simmering fiscal problem in industrial economies to the boiling point", said the Swiss-based bank for central bankers -- the oldest and most venerable of the world's financial watchdogs. Drastic austerity measures will be needed to head off a compound interest spiral, if it is not already too late for some.
The risk is an "abrupt rise in government bond yields" as investors choke on a surfeit of public debt. "Bond traders are notoriously short-sighted, assuming they can get out before the storm hits: their time horizons are days or weeks, not years or decade. We take a longer and less benign view of current developments," said the study, entitled "The Future of Public Debt", by the bank's chief economist Stephen Cecchetti.
"The question is when markets will start putting pressure on governments, not if. When will investors start demanding a much higher compensation for holding increasingly large amounts of public debt? In some countries, unstable debt dynamics -- in which higher debt levels lead to higher interest rates, which then lead to even higher debt levels -- are already clearly on the horizon."
Official debt figures in the West are "very misleading" since they fail to take in account the contingent liabilities and pension debts that have mushroomed over recent years. "Rapidly ageing populations present a number of countries with the prospect of enormous future costs that are not wholly recognised in current budget projections. The size of these future obligations is anybody's guess," said the report. The BIS lamented the lack of any systematic data on the scale of unfunded IOUs that care-free politicians have handed out like confetti.
Britain emerges in the BIS paper as an arch-sinner. The country may have entered the crisis with a low public debt but this shock absorber has already been used up, exposing the underlying rot in the UK's public accounts.
Tucked away in the BIS report are charts and tables showing that Britain faces the highest structural deficit in the OECD club of rich states, with a mounting risk that public debt will explode out of control.
Interest payments on the UK's public debt will double from 5pc of GDP to 10pc within a decade under the bank's 'baseline scenario' before spiralling upwards to 27pc by 2040, the highest in the industrial world. Greece fares better, and Italy looks saintly by comparison.
The BIS said the UK's structural budget deficit will be 9pc of GDP next year, the highest in the advanced world. A primary surplus of 3.5pc of GDP will be required for the next twenty years just to stabilize the debt at the pre-crisis level.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/75647...
"The Bank for International Settlements does not mince words. Sovereign debt is already starting to cross the danger threshold in the United States, Japan, Britain, and most of Western Europe, threatening to set off a bond crisis at the heart of the global economy.
The aftermath of the financial crisis is poised to bring a simmering fiscal problem in industrial economies to the boiling point", said the Swiss-based bank for central bankers -- the oldest and most venerable of the world's financial watchdogs. Drastic austerity measures will be needed to head off a compound interest spiral, if it is not already too late for some.
The risk is an "abrupt rise in government bond yields" as investors choke on a surfeit of public debt. "Bond traders are notoriously short-sighted, assuming they can get out before the storm hits: their time horizons are days or weeks, not years or decade. We take a longer and less benign view of current developments," said the study, entitled "The Future of Public Debt", by the bank's chief economist Stephen Cecchetti.
"The question is when markets will start putting pressure on governments, not if. When will investors start demanding a much higher compensation for holding increasingly large amounts of public debt? In some countries, unstable debt dynamics -- in which higher debt levels lead to higher interest rates, which then lead to even higher debt levels -- are already clearly on the horizon."
Official debt figures in the West are "very misleading" since they fail to take in account the contingent liabilities and pension debts that have mushroomed over recent years. "Rapidly ageing populations present a number of countries with the prospect of enormous future costs that are not wholly recognised in current budget projections. The size of these future obligations is anybody's guess," said the report. The BIS lamented the lack of any systematic data on the scale of unfunded IOUs that care-free politicians have handed out like confetti.
Britain emerges in the BIS paper as an arch-sinner. The country may have entered the crisis with a low public debt but this shock absorber has already been used up, exposing the underlying rot in the UK's public accounts.
Tucked away in the BIS report are charts and tables showing that Britain faces the highest structural deficit in the OECD club of rich states, with a mounting risk that public debt will explode out of control.
Interest payments on the UK's public debt will double from 5pc of GDP to 10pc within a decade under the bank's 'baseline scenario' before spiralling upwards to 27pc by 2040, the highest in the industrial world. Greece fares better, and Italy looks saintly by comparison.
The BIS said the UK's structural budget deficit will be 9pc of GDP next year, the highest in the advanced world. A primary surplus of 3.5pc of GDP will be required for the next twenty years just to stabilize the debt at the pre-crisis level.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/75647...
Fittster said:
I've just had my legs slapped for not updating this thread with this news story:
"The Bank for International Settlements does not mince words. Sovereign debt is already starting to cross the danger threshold in the United States, Japan, Britain, and most of Western Europe, threatening to set off a bond crisis at the heart of the global economy.
The aftermath of the financial crisis is poised to bring a simmering fiscal problem in industrial economies to the boiling point", said the Swiss-based bank for central bankers -- the oldest and most venerable of the world's financial watchdogs. Drastic austerity measures will be needed to head off a compound interest spiral, if it is not already too late for some.
The risk is an "abrupt rise in government bond yields" as investors choke on a surfeit of public debt. "Bond traders are notoriously short-sighted, assuming they can get out before the storm hits: their time horizons are days or weeks, not years or decade. We take a longer and less benign view of current developments," said the study, entitled "The Future of Public Debt", by the bank's chief economist Stephen Cecchetti.
"The question is when markets will start putting pressure on governments, not if. When will investors start demanding a much higher compensation for holding increasingly large amounts of public debt? In some countries, unstable debt dynamics -- in which higher debt levels lead to higher interest rates, which then lead to even higher debt levels -- are already clearly on the horizon."
Official debt figures in the West are "very misleading" since they fail to take in account the contingent liabilities and pension debts that have mushroomed over recent years. "Rapidly ageing populations present a number of countries with the prospect of enormous future costs that are not wholly recognised in current budget projections. The size of these future obligations is anybody's guess," said the report. The BIS lamented the lack of any systematic data on the scale of unfunded IOUs that care-free politicians have handed out like confetti.
Britain emerges in the BIS paper as an arch-sinner. The country may have entered the crisis with a low public debt but this shock absorber has already been used up, exposing the underlying rot in the UK's public accounts.
Tucked away in the BIS report are charts and tables showing that Britain faces the highest structural deficit in the OECD club of rich states, with a mounting risk that public debt will explode out of control.
Interest payments on the UK's public debt will double from 5pc of GDP to 10pc within a decade under the bank's 'baseline scenario' before spiralling upwards to 27pc by 2040, the highest in the industrial world. Greece fares better, and Italy looks saintly by comparison.
The BIS said the UK's structural budget deficit will be 9pc of GDP next year, the highest in the advanced world. A primary surplus of 3.5pc of GDP will be required for the next twenty years just to stabilize the debt at the pre-crisis level.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/75647...
I believe that there are many economies which will exist at the edge of a debt tipping point but will not actually fall into the debt compound spiral because the central banks will magic more money out of nothing - to pay off excess debt. QE is on pause in this country as the house price bubble is off again...."The Bank for International Settlements does not mince words. Sovereign debt is already starting to cross the danger threshold in the United States, Japan, Britain, and most of Western Europe, threatening to set off a bond crisis at the heart of the global economy.
The aftermath of the financial crisis is poised to bring a simmering fiscal problem in industrial economies to the boiling point", said the Swiss-based bank for central bankers -- the oldest and most venerable of the world's financial watchdogs. Drastic austerity measures will be needed to head off a compound interest spiral, if it is not already too late for some.
The risk is an "abrupt rise in government bond yields" as investors choke on a surfeit of public debt. "Bond traders are notoriously short-sighted, assuming they can get out before the storm hits: their time horizons are days or weeks, not years or decade. We take a longer and less benign view of current developments," said the study, entitled "The Future of Public Debt", by the bank's chief economist Stephen Cecchetti.
"The question is when markets will start putting pressure on governments, not if. When will investors start demanding a much higher compensation for holding increasingly large amounts of public debt? In some countries, unstable debt dynamics -- in which higher debt levels lead to higher interest rates, which then lead to even higher debt levels -- are already clearly on the horizon."
Official debt figures in the West are "very misleading" since they fail to take in account the contingent liabilities and pension debts that have mushroomed over recent years. "Rapidly ageing populations present a number of countries with the prospect of enormous future costs that are not wholly recognised in current budget projections. The size of these future obligations is anybody's guess," said the report. The BIS lamented the lack of any systematic data on the scale of unfunded IOUs that care-free politicians have handed out like confetti.
Britain emerges in the BIS paper as an arch-sinner. The country may have entered the crisis with a low public debt but this shock absorber has already been used up, exposing the underlying rot in the UK's public accounts.
Tucked away in the BIS report are charts and tables showing that Britain faces the highest structural deficit in the OECD club of rich states, with a mounting risk that public debt will explode out of control.
Interest payments on the UK's public debt will double from 5pc of GDP to 10pc within a decade under the bank's 'baseline scenario' before spiralling upwards to 27pc by 2040, the highest in the industrial world. Greece fares better, and Italy looks saintly by comparison.
The BIS said the UK's structural budget deficit will be 9pc of GDP next year, the highest in the advanced world. A primary surplus of 3.5pc of GDP will be required for the next twenty years just to stabilize the debt at the pre-crisis level.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/75647...
(Leg slapping? Sounds scary, maybe someone with German ancestory!? )
Well there's a blast from the past:
"US mortgage finance firm Fannie Mae has asked for another $8.4bn (£5.6bn) in state aid after announcing further big losses.
The company said it lost $13.1bn in the first three months of the year as it continues to suffer the effects of the financial crisis.
That is down from the $16.3bn loss it reported for the last quarter of 2009.
But the continued fragility of the US economy and mortgage market meant it still needed government support.
The US government took control of the two mortgage funding giants - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - in 2008.
The companies buy mortgages from approved lenders and sell them on - making them especially vulnerable to the collapse in the US mortgage market that sparked the crisis in the banking sector.
So far the government has contributed $83.6bn to the bail-out of Fannie Mae. The cost of bailing out both institutions now totals nearly $145bn - but is expected to total much more."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10106105.stm
Amazing just how small $8.4bn sounds these days.
"US mortgage finance firm Fannie Mae has asked for another $8.4bn (£5.6bn) in state aid after announcing further big losses.
The company said it lost $13.1bn in the first three months of the year as it continues to suffer the effects of the financial crisis.
That is down from the $16.3bn loss it reported for the last quarter of 2009.
But the continued fragility of the US economy and mortgage market meant it still needed government support.
The US government took control of the two mortgage funding giants - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - in 2008.
The companies buy mortgages from approved lenders and sell them on - making them especially vulnerable to the collapse in the US mortgage market that sparked the crisis in the banking sector.
So far the government has contributed $83.6bn to the bail-out of Fannie Mae. The cost of bailing out both institutions now totals nearly $145bn - but is expected to total much more."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10106105.stm
Amazing just how small $8.4bn sounds these days.
Not sure if this is the right thread, but can't find a more suitable one, and don't want to start a whole new thread;
A mate sent me an email this morning. Sums up why unemployment is so high, and why it's so difficult to get a job in these times;
"Ron Smith started the day early having set his Alarm clock(MADE IN JAPAN ) for 6am.
While his coffeepot(MADE IN CHINA )was perking, he shaved with his Electric razor(MADE IN HONG KONG ).
He put on a Dress shirt(MADE IN SRI LANKA ),Designer jeans(MADE IN SINGAPORE ), and Tennis shoes(MADE IN KOREA ).
After cooking his breakfast in his new Electric skillet(MADE IN INDIA ), he sat down with his Calculator(MADE IN MEXICO ) to see how much he could spend today. After setting his Watch(MADE IN TAIWAN ) to the radio (MADE IN INDIA ), he got in his car (MADE IN GERMANY ), filled it with PETROL(from Saudi Arabia ), and continued his search for a good paying BRITISH JOB.
At the end of yet another discouraging and fruitless day checking his Computer (Made In Malaysia ), Ron decided to relax for a while.
He put on his sandals (MADE IN BRAZIL ) poured himself a glass of Wine (MADE IN FRANCE ) and turned on his TV (MADE IN INDONESIA ),and then wondered why he can't find a good paying job in BRITAIN ....."
A mate sent me an email this morning. Sums up why unemployment is so high, and why it's so difficult to get a job in these times;
"Ron Smith started the day early having set his Alarm clock(MADE IN JAPAN ) for 6am.
While his coffeepot(MADE IN CHINA )was perking, he shaved with his Electric razor(MADE IN HONG KONG ).
He put on a Dress shirt(MADE IN SRI LANKA ),Designer jeans(MADE IN SINGAPORE ), and Tennis shoes(MADE IN KOREA ).
After cooking his breakfast in his new Electric skillet(MADE IN INDIA ), he sat down with his Calculator(MADE IN MEXICO ) to see how much he could spend today. After setting his Watch(MADE IN TAIWAN ) to the radio (MADE IN INDIA ), he got in his car (MADE IN GERMANY ), filled it with PETROL(from Saudi Arabia ), and continued his search for a good paying BRITISH JOB.
At the end of yet another discouraging and fruitless day checking his Computer (Made In Malaysia ), Ron decided to relax for a while.
He put on his sandals (MADE IN BRAZIL ) poured himself a glass of Wine (MADE IN FRANCE ) and turned on his TV (MADE IN INDONESIA ),and then wondered why he can't find a good paying job in BRITAIN ....."
Great Pretender said:
Is it as simple as that though?
Pretty much. You look at the economic history of Britain in a nutshell. We were ripping off people and ending up with the money. Now we think we are ripping them off with their cheap goods and crap conditions.
One thing, they're all getting our pile of money and what we are left with is debt.
What happens when the
Ans:- It all goes terribly pear shaped, unless you can get a job at one of the mines (which will open up again in due course).
My utterly hatstand mentally ill perspective thinks that the EU is a better idea in dealing with stuff in this respect. We are going to need to cooperate in order to survive.
The continued success of the UK (or should I say, it's financial feasibility) rests on a very tenuous and no-barriers-to-doing-it-elsewhere inertia.
There is a real danger of not having any money to buy anything and not having the means to pay for unaffordable products.
I'm sanguine as I have a big veg patch and there are a couple of disused mines down the road which will probably open up
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