Swing required Vs Turnout
Discussion
The number of times this "swing" required is used as a measure of the change in voting against the 2005 election the more I'm beginning to distrust it as an appropriate measure.
2005 election had a 61% turnout. I'd imagine given the issues we are facing we will get a significantly better turnout than then. The tories were very crap in 1997, 2001 and 2005, a little better now in 2010 but no where near as good as 1979 as far as I'm told.
I believe that a lot of tory (and non-Labour in 01 & 05) voters stayed at home in protest and apathy in the last three elections. In 01 & 05 There was no viable alternative or a serious platform of rationale to oust Labour at this time.
If turnout returns to the 1997 levels of 71% or higher and I would envisage (hope) the swing of apathy & protest has swung to affect Labour, then the actual comparison Vs 2005 is really pointless.
Surely we should be comparing 2010 Vs 97 & 79 as that was more representative of the current policitical situation, although I have to say none of the current leaders have any where near the vote pulling power that Maggie & Tony had.
Anyway, they need to build this in to their models as it doesn't tell the whole story about what will need to happen in May.
2005 election had a 61% turnout. I'd imagine given the issues we are facing we will get a significantly better turnout than then. The tories were very crap in 1997, 2001 and 2005, a little better now in 2010 but no where near as good as 1979 as far as I'm told.
I believe that a lot of tory (and non-Labour in 01 & 05) voters stayed at home in protest and apathy in the last three elections. In 01 & 05 There was no viable alternative or a serious platform of rationale to oust Labour at this time.
If turnout returns to the 1997 levels of 71% or higher and I would envisage (hope) the swing of apathy & protest has swung to affect Labour, then the actual comparison Vs 2005 is really pointless.
Surely we should be comparing 2010 Vs 97 & 79 as that was more representative of the current policitical situation, although I have to say none of the current leaders have any where near the vote pulling power that Maggie & Tony had.
Anyway, they need to build this in to their models as it doesn't tell the whole story about what will need to happen in May.
Edited by OneDs on Wednesday 21st April 11:43
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