Interview- Harvard Professor talks Debt and decline of West

[fido]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

It was Prof. Krugman year before last. My problem is this - the dude is supposedly one of the top economists in his field - yet, he came out in his support for Brown ..

"Krugman has praised Gordon Brown, the former British Prime Minister, asserting that he "defined the character of the worldwide [financial] rescue effort" and urged British voters not to support the opposition Conservative Party in the 2010 General Election, arguing their Party Leader David Cameron "has had little to offer other than to raise the red flag of fiscal panic."

.. i cannot reconcile 'genius' with someone who thought Brown was a good PM. just cannot compute.

Edited by fido on Thursday 27th May 09:13

[Andy Zarse]

I think Ferguson used to write in the Telegraph some years ago. He was a big fan of the Euro and said it would overtake the USD to become the world's reserve currency. Hmmm...

[HCMH]

Carfiend said:

Wait you mean it isn't all Prawn Crackers and Chicken Chowmein? Have I been lied too all these years? Damn you!

If only it was...there must be a market to take UK Chinese food back to China, so much better.

[Bing o]

HCMH said:

Carfiend said:

Wait you mean it isn't all Prawn Crackers and Chicken Chowmein? Have I been lied too all these years? Damn you!

If only it was...there must be a market to take UK Chinese food back to China, so much better.

You are kidding right? UK chinese is tasteless.

[fido]

Andy Zarse said:

I think Ferguson used to write in the Telegraph some years ago. He was a big fan of the Euro and said it would overtake the USD to become the world's reserve currency. Hmmm...

http://www.safehaven.com/article/11856/the-descent-of-niall-ferguson

^Same guy who wrote off Gold in 1999, and said it wouldn't have much value except as jewelry. I wonder if he's also a Brown fan.

[Eric Mc]

fido said:

Andy Zarse said:

I think Ferguson used to write in the Telegraph some years ago. He was a big fan of the Euro and said it would overtake the USD to become the world's reserve currency. Hmmm...

http://www.safehaven.com/article/11856/the-descent-of-niall-ferguson

^Same guy who wrote off Gold in 1999, and said it wouldn't have much value except as jewelry. I wonder if he's also a Brown fan.

Brown certainly seems to have taken his advice.

[SmoothRB]

Rome fell due to mass immigration of barbarian peoples crossing the rhine and danube. A lesson from history?

[The real Apache]

Bing o said:

HCMH said:

Carfiend said:

Wait you mean it isn't all Prawn Crackers and Chicken Chowmein? Have I been lied too all these years? Damn you!

If only it was...there must be a market to take UK Chinese food back to China, so much better.

You are kidding right? UK chinese is tasteless.

compared to indiginous Chinese stuff it aint

[Shay HTFC]

The real Apache said:

Bing o said:

HCMH said:

Carfiend said:

Wait you mean it isn't all Prawn Crackers and Chicken Chowmein? Have I been lied too all these years? Damn you!

If only it was...there must be a market to take UK Chinese food back to China, so much better.

You are kidding right? UK chinese is tasteless.

compared to indiginous Chinese stuff it aint

Have you ever been to Szechuan?

[Halb]

prand said:

sjn2004 said:

odyssey2200 said:

amir_j said:

the decline of the economic power of the western world.

to be replaced by what?

Exactly.

I've spent several years in Brasil which is currently meant to be one of the countries that's going to take over the world along with China,India and Russia. They currently have a budget surplus but its STILL a screwed up corrupt third world hole.

For 99% of the population.

You lose your job, you starve.

Your ill, you die.

You have an accident, you go to hospital in a taxi. If your lucky an ambulance comes which is just an empty van with no equipment inside.

A car hits you and badly damages your leg...they just cut it off.

Normal people will fight to the death over 50p.

The list is endless.

Not that I disagree with you, but the Roman Empire, which was big in global terms 2000-1500 years ago, declined and fell to what were then cultures seen as savages and heathens (GOths, Barbarians and Muslims), who used brute force and cruelty to oust the more "advanced" overlords.

We saw what was desrcribed as the dark ages after the Roman Empire, which in my mind, if we fast forward a couple of millenia, means it's perfectly feasible for what we might think are undeveloped and unsophisticated countries and cultures gaining the edge economically, socially and militarily over us.

When the British Empire was top dog, the life at home for the poorest Brits, like for the poorest Brazilians (anyone now) was the same. Just because a country becomes an economic powerhouse to smash all before in the world doesn't mean that at home it's a utopia.

edit.
China and India are becoming stronger, and the West is in decline. Is this news? Hasn't it been happening for decades? Is it because the West has helped to dismantle itself with a crazy banking system that has helped the gap reduce somewhat?

Edited by Halb on Thursday 27th May 12:25

[odyssey2200]

India and China are catching up and getting stronger compared to what they used to be.

If the "Western" economies fell, so would theirs.
Most of Chinas goods are bought by the west.

Despite the hype you are still talking about countries where running water is no available to a lot of the population.

China and India are just as fragile as the west and are mostly a facade.

[Digga]

Olf said:

amir_j said:

radio 4 just now: Brazil is growing 5% each year and poised to overtake France and Britain in not so distant future.

When you say overtake - what do you mean?

36 hr working week?

[dvs_dave]

Not sure how it will happen though. The East relies on exports to the richer West for it's superficial fiscal prosperity. If the West stops consuming, what will the East export and where will their money come from?

As I see it, it all centres around energy/resource consumption per capita. Currently the West consumes masses more per capita than the East, so the flow of energy/wealth is towards the west. It's impossible for it to swing the other way as there is simply not enough energy/resources available on Earth to support such a swing. The only long term outcome is for the East "as a whole" to become more equal with the West in terms of consumption per capita and hence wealth.

That is until the West cracks Nuclear Fusion (about 40 years away by all accounts), and we can then get "free" and clean energy and we're back to using it like mad for all of our gadgets, giant greenhouses/farms, and teleporters and the East is back to being number 2.

[Jimbeaux]

Bing o said:

Jimbeaux said:

Shay HTFC said:

odyssey2200 said:

amir_j said:

the decline of the economic power of the western world.

to be replaced by what?

The East. The interview explains it better, but Asia is hardly being hit as hard compared to us in this crisis. They have a massive population essentially going through an industrial revolution involving high growth and utilization of their man power. Top jobs and businesses are no longer the reserve of the West.

China is effectively building an empire. The amount of investment they are pumping into 3rd world countries around the world is akin to what we were doing at the start of our empire. The difference is that they are gaining power within countries economically, rather than directly through regime change.

You should listen to the interview - its very interesting. We in the West don't have a righteous right to be the leaders of the world. Our competitive advantage is being lost to the East and we are effectively in relative decline (i.e. the East is getting closer to our levels of wealth)

I hope you aren't too happy with that.

White is right ain't it Jim? Can't have the slitty eyes in charge can we?

You see, that is your cr@p, not mine. I said nothing about race. I am referring to influence. Like it or not, humans are competative. No, I would not want them in charge. "White is right"?? Ironically, the "West" is multicultural, therefore, your statement makes no sense. Ironically, China is more single-raced. The funny part is that your "white is right" fear would be nothing compared to what their "Yellow is right" would look like. There are few people more racist than orientals.
Your idea of their prosperity relying on the West is something we agree on.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Thursday 27th May 14:19

[Fittster]

odyssey2200 said:

India and China are catching up and getting stronger compared to what they used to be.

Very different countries, just lumping them together is a little lazy.

I'm betting on India in the longer term because of it's demographics.

I found the book The Age of Aging very interesting. India has a nice demographics boom coming, but China looks rather like Japan.

I'm sure Jim will be happy to know that the US and UK look quite healthy from a demographics perspective thanks to immigration.

Edited by Fittster on Thursday 27th May 14:29

[Jimbeaux]

Fittster said:

odyssey2200 said:

India and China are catching up and getting stronger compared to what they used to be.

Very different countries, just lumping them together is a little lazy.

I'm betting on India in the longer term because of it's demographics.

I found the book The Age of Aging very interesting. India has a nice demographics boom coming, but China looks rather like Japan.

I'm sure Jim will be happy to know that the US and UK look quite healthy from a demographics perspective thanks to immigration.

Edited by Fittster on Thursday 27th May 14:29

I agree on your India/China comparison. I concur that China could follow the Japanese growth/stagnation model.
To bite on your immigration bait; immigration can be a double edged sword. It is neccessary and "nourishing". However, like other nourishing things, one can over eat.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Thursday 27th May 14:35

[Ewan S]

I definitely wouldn't bet on India. Have you spoken to anyone in an indian call centre recently? More to the point do you know anyone that imports stuff from India? Even the chinese can do better (if you pay them accordingly)

[Fittster]

Ewan S said:

More to the point do you know anyone that imports stuff from India? Even the chinese can do better (if you pay them accordingly)

IT services are exported in large quantities from India.

[odyssey2200]

Jimbeaux said:

Fittster said:

odyssey2200 said:

India and China are catching up and getting stronger compared to what they used to be.

Very different countries, just lumping them together is a little lazy.

I'm betting on India in the longer term because of it's demographics.

I found the book The Age of Aging very interesting. India has a nice demographics boom coming, but China looks rather like Japan.

I'm sure Jim will be happy to know that the US and UK look quite healthy from a demographics perspective thanks to immigration.

Edited by Fittster on Thursday 27th May 14:29

I agree on your India/China comparison. I concur that China could follow the Japanese growth/stagnation model.
To bite on your immigration bait; immigration can be a double edged sword. It is neccessary and "nourishing". However, like other nourishing things, one can over eat.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Thursday 27th May 14:35

and I was referring to the previous post before mine, who referred to India and China.

[Jimbeaux]

odyssey2200 said:

Jimbeaux said:

Fittster said:

odyssey2200 said:

India and China are catching up and getting stronger compared to what they used to be.

Very different countries, just lumping them together is a little lazy.

I'm betting on India in the longer term because of it's demographics.

I found the book The Age of Aging very interesting. India has a nice demographics boom coming, but China looks rather like Japan.

I'm sure Jim will be happy to know that the US and UK look quite healthy from a demographics perspective thanks to immigration.

Edited by Fittster on Thursday 27th May 14:29

I agree on your India/China comparison. I concur that China could follow the Japanese growth/stagnation model.
To bite on your immigration bait; immigration can be a double edged sword. It is neccessary and "nourishing". However, like other nourishing things, one can over eat.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Thursday 27th May 14:35

and I was referring to the previous post before mine, who referred to India and China.

Understood.