N. Korea - will they , or won't they?

[XJSJohn]

they have already done one batch of games, we saw the US navy refuelers ominging back in last weekend and heading out again mid week.

KYI will do fk all .... if there is an actual invasion of NK he will run to his dacha in China and live in exile.

[Timmy35]

KANEIT said:

Jimbeaux said:

KANEIT said:

Tsippy said:

....People hint that China may help North Korea, however I have my doubts because their manufacturing is reliant on the West.....

And the West is reliant on their manufacturing? It's a 2 way thing now, China is no longer a slave to us.

The West could buy elsewhere, albeit more expensive; China, however, cannot sell elsewhere to the extent they require to sustain growth.

It's the ease, timescale and cost of setting up new production facilities, training workforces, setting up new supply chains that is in question though. It's that initial setup that manufacturers may not be able to afford and even if they can it will take time.

As I said, I think you'll find that most actual fabrication is still occuring in the West/ Japan, what they are doing in China is very cheap manual assembley. They don't actually make very much in the sense that most of us would think of manufacturing.

[Jimbeaux]

KANEIT said:

Jimbeaux said:

KANEIT said:

Tsippy said:

....People hint that China may help North Korea, however I have my doubts because their manufacturing is reliant on the West.....

And the West is reliant on their manufacturing? It's a 2 way thing now, China is no longer a slave to us.

The West could buy elsewhere, albeit more expensive; China, however, cannot sell elsewhere to the extent they require to sustain growth.

It's the ease, timescale and cost of setting up new production facilities, training workforces, setting up new supply chains that is in question though. It's that initial setup that manufacturers may not be able to afford and even if they can it will take time.

That is true. However, what really do they make that we must right away? There are some things surely; however,I wager those things are readily available elsewhere but at a higher cost.

[XJSJohn]

Jimbeaux said:

KANEIT said:

Jimbeaux said:

KANEIT said:

Tsippy said:

....People hint that China may help North Korea, however I have my doubts because their manufacturing is reliant on the West.....

And the West is reliant on their manufacturing? It's a 2 way thing now, China is no longer a slave to us.

The West could buy elsewhere, albeit more expensive; China, however, cannot sell elsewhere to the extent they require to sustain growth.

It's the ease, timescale and cost of setting up new production facilities, training workforces, setting up new supply chains that is in question though. It's that initial setup that manufacturers may not be able to afford and even if they can it will take time.

That is true. However, what really do they make that we must right away? There are some things surely; however,I wager those things are readily available elsewhere but at a higher cost.

China will help in so much as they will shelter KYI in exile should the RoW decide to retaaliate to an action existing or in the future, but not much more!!! imo.

[Timmy35]

Jimbeaux said:

That is true. However, what really do they make that we must right away? There are some things surely; however,I wager those things are readily available elsewhere but at a higher cost.

They have been buying up rare earth metal deposits all over the place. But then all the US needs to do it re-open the Mountain Pass mine in anycase.

[Tsippy]

KANEIT said:

Tsippy said:

KANEIT said:

Tsippy said:

KANEIT said:

Tsippy said:

....People hint that China may help North Korea, however I have my doubts because their manufacturing is reliant on the West.....

And the West is reliant on their manufacturing? It's a 2 way thing now, China is no longer a slave to us.

China is convenient because it's cheap, if diplomatic ties were cut and they wanted to be arsey there could soon be plenty of manufacturing in the West again.

Just like that eh? With a click of your heels?!!!!! Not so easy in the real world.

Who said it would happen in an instant? Anything of importance can be manufactured in the West, it just means that that rubber ducks will be in short supply for a while along with the other cheap tat coming out of China.

Although the manufacturing industry has taken a battering, it is more than capable of growing again.

You are funny!

And what is incorrect in what I have stated? Nissan used China for cheap tool work however have now stopped as the work was so shoddy, as a result the work is now back in the West. And it's the same with anything else, the minute a manufacturer is unhappy with the political / quality / social situation, they'll put the work elsewhere so they get what they want.

I take it you have little experience of manufacturing business?

[neilr]

Roll up roll up, its east vs west (or in this case North vs South) in the final battle for the end of the world! Bring your friends (and especially your enemies).


IF Keeerrrazy Kim did do anything, is it not more likley that while everyones attention is focused on the Koreas that instead of backing what would definately be the wrong horse, China would pop across the straights of Taiwan claiming then for her own and use the NK situation as leverage to stay there? whether the west would accept that who knows, might be worth the gamble in Chinas eyes rather than directly helping NK.

Besides, the BBC constantly referes to Taiwan as Chinese Taipei (yes I know taiwan calls itself Taipei), it's almost as if theyre preparing us for it! Either that or the BBC are a bunch of commies? Surely not.

Nothing will happen, its Kim craving attention again.

[KANEIT]

Tsippy said:

KANEIT said:

Tsippy said:

KANEIT said:

Tsippy said:

KANEIT said:

Tsippy said:

....People hint that China may help North Korea, however I have my doubts because their manufacturing is reliant on the West.....

And the West is reliant on their manufacturing? It's a 2 way thing now, China is no longer a slave to us.

China is convenient because it's cheap, if diplomatic ties were cut and they wanted to be arsey there could soon be plenty of manufacturing in the West again.

Just like that eh? With a click of your heels?!!!!! Not so easy in the real world.

Who said it would happen in an instant? Anything of importance can be manufactured in the West, it just means that that rubber ducks will be in short supply for a while along with the other cheap tat coming out of China.

Although the manufacturing industry has taken a battering, it is more than capable of growing again.

You are funny!

And what is incorrect in what I have stated? Nissan used China for cheap tool work however have now stopped as the work was so shoddy, as a result the work is now back in the West. And it's the same with anything else, the minute a manufacturer is unhappy with the political / quality / social situation, they'll put the work elsewhere so they get what they want.

I take it you have little experience of manufacturing business?

I have a degree in a manufacturing related discipline. I have worked in manufacturing for two companies, of one I was involved in the setup of an entirely new factory, CAD, CAM, MRP etc etc - so I would say that I have plenty of manufacturing experience. And you?
Not all manufacturing in China has gone that way. I have seen some real crap come out of there, primarily with cast brass components where the Chinese have been left to their own devices, but if you install a British management team in the Chinese factory you can promote better working practices and improve quality. It depends partly on the complexity of the product too. Shower enclosures - glass, silicone and extruded alloy sections with a few bits of chrome effect plastic and simple runners, easy peasy simple components, you can end up with the same quality of product than one made in Ireland for example, just got to keep their anodising and glass quality in check. You've got to keep your eye on them.

My main gripe with what you said was, quite flippantly, i.e. we/the U.S/the West can go to war with NK and there will be no problem with transferring all our China based product elsewhere, just like that, simples............NOT.

[Tsippy]

Have owned my own manufacturing company and currently working as a trouble shooter for varying engineering firms hence my experience of Chinese rubbish.

My experience has been with their attempts at Precision Engineering, which is quite frankly pathetic. So I guess we're looking at it from two sides, you from their more basic functions and me from their attempts at advanced engineering. I agree they can do the basics, but complex work leaves a lot to be desired out there still, even with a British engineering team overseeing them (usually because as soon as their backs are turned the results are fudged!)

Edited by Tsippy on Friday 23 July 21:40

[KANEIT]

Tsippy said:

Have owned my own manufacturing company and currently working as a trouble shooter for varying engineering firms hence my experience of Chinese rubbish.

My experience has been with their attempts at Precision Engineering, which is quite frankly pathetic. So I guess we're looking at it from two sides, you from their more basic functions and me from their attempts at advanced engineering. I agree they can do the basics, but complex work leaves a lot to be desired out there still, even with a British engineering team overseeing them (usually because as soon as their backs are turned the results are fudged!)

Edited by Tsippy on Friday 23 July 21:40

But there are many basic components and products that they make and we need and no longer have the setup to make ourselves. I agree though I would not want them making Wolls-Woyce jet engines.

[Tsippy]

A threat to China is the rise of companies in Eastern Europe (places such as Hungary and Slovakia) where they are getting the benefit of European engineers plus reduced transport costs. I don't think it would be too hard to move production away from China though, as eventhough the workforce is in a manufacturing plant, they are mostly unskilled labour and something that's not in short supply in Eastern Europe.

[DAVEVO9]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-10748...

I wonder what they mean by 'sacred war' ?

It wouldn't be a war would it? just the end of NK.

[Mojocvh]

DAVEVO9 said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-10748...

I wonder what they mean by 'sacred war' ?

It wouldn't be a war would it? just the end of NK.

Oh 4uck, Cuba again. Except this weeks "great leader" doesn't have the understanding of the losses of the great patriotic war to hold him back.

Really, this is f-off serious now, even conventionally, the losses to the south would be staggering, never mind the move to chemical/biological artillery rounds.

Seoul and it's environs would cease to exist.

The casualties would be staggering.


Imagine this..







reduced to this...







.

[Uncle Fester]

The Chinese are masters of playing a very long game.

However this goes down it will be the actions of the Chinese that determine the outcome.

The outcome will be that the Chinese end up in control of North Korea, even if it takes them many generations to achieve.

[superkartracer]

Frankeh said:

NK fires at the south using its stty artillery.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.9b44fd30ac49d58176d74d2962680917.101

Two hours to flatten the place, yes they can't win but they could certainly do some serious damage.

[Mr Dave]

North Korea says it will use its "nuclear deterrent" in response to joint US-South Korean military exercises this weekend.

Pyongyang was ready to launch a "retaliatory sacred war" at any time, the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-10748...

And as for their stty artillery, "Quality over quantity but quantity has a quality all of its own."


Oh and for it being a suicide attack? Wouldnt really stop the North Korean leadership, they are usually quite happy to send commandos on suicide trips into the south.

Edited by Mr Dave on Saturday 24th July 08:52

[Castrol Craig]

superkartracer said:

Frankeh said:

NK fires at the south using its stty artillery.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.9b44fd30ac49d58176d74d2962680917.101

Two hours to flatten the place, yes they can't win but they could certainly do some serious damage.

even with 13000 arty guns, yo uhave to have the logistics to keep them running, then there are the inevitable failures, plus the fact they can only fire poor quality small HE rounds, so they are not going to do much damage.

given the 30 minutes they would hae before the US flattened them with air strikes, id say they wouldnt be able to flatten the place.

[Mr Dave]

Castrol Craig said:

superkartracer said:

Frankeh said:

NK fires at the south using its stty artillery.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.9b44fd30ac49d58176d74d2962680917.101

Two hours to flatten the place, yes they can't win but they could certainly do some serious damage.

even with 13000 arty guns, yo uhave to have the logistics to keep them running, then there are the inevitable failures, plus the fact they can only fire poor quality small HE rounds, so they are not going to do much damage.

given the 30 minutes they would hae before the US flattened them with air strikes, id say they wouldnt be able to flatten the place.

Some of the tubes and most of the missiles and rockets are able to deliver chemical and bacterialogical weapons, added to that an element of insanity and the mindset where threatening the US and South Korea with nukes seems a good idea and you are headed for trouble.

[Pentoman]

From the book that I have been reading (some book about the secret war with Iran or similar, not sure who it's by), N Korea may be screwed in terms of its population starving, but they do/did have money from Russia and now China - money that, instead of investing in their populace, they put into weapons, so don't imagine that all their munitions are rubbish tat. Plenty of relatively good stuff available on the black market from what I read, and probably the money to get it if you are really dedicated to get it. According to this book N Korea are key because if they get away with 'playing up' it may encourage problem what we call extremist groups/countries to try the same. So you need to respond.. But not enough to start a war.

[elster]

Those of you who say it would be easy for the West to take control over from China is a complete moron.

The Chinese have enormous stakes in the USA, they would not and could not go to war with each other.