N. Korea - will they , or won't they?
Discussion
BrassMan said:
pugwash4x4 said:
I agree with the sentiments but compare this to the first gulf war
1million troops, lots of air defence, willing troops, hundreds of modern-ish tanks, modern-ish warfare etc etc
After 3 weeks of targeted bombing taking out just about every command and control centre, saw the whole army rolled up in days- tens of thousands killed and hundreds of thousands taken captive.
its very difficult to beat stealth bombers, 5,000 special forces troops, tonnes of guided munitions dropped from 60kfeet, and thousands of cruise missiles.
All true, but it takes time to organise that sort of thing. In Gulf 1, Saddam had moved and stopped, giving away the initiative to a superior force.1million troops, lots of air defence, willing troops, hundreds of modern-ish tanks, modern-ish warfare etc etc
After 3 weeks of targeted bombing taking out just about every command and control centre, saw the whole army rolled up in days- tens of thousands killed and hundreds of thousands taken captive.
its very difficult to beat stealth bombers, 5,000 special forces troops, tonnes of guided munitions dropped from 60kfeet, and thousands of cruise missiles.
Unless the cruise missiles are in the area on the day they won't do a whole lot of good. Given the state that NK is supposed to in, I would expect it to fold fairly quickly, but that won't do the people in the way much good.
Where was I? Oh yeah, NK would be crazy to do more than posture, but I'd expect SK to have a hefty body count before they were stopped.
ts'n'giggles...ETA it's awfully nice of USFK to put their Orbat on t'interweb
The US have 2 battalions of 18 MLRS each and a battalion of 24 Paladins, so assuming they were all assigned to counterfire duty around Seoul(which seems unlikely but not unpossible) They stand a chance of suppressing the NKs rather quickly. The RoK civvys will need to hide in their bombshelters though, as even a couple of salvos from 13000 tubes will smart a bit.
superkartracer said:
More importantly, is that someone who knows more about plane/war stuff than Eric!?
Somewhatfoolish said:
Anyone interested in a PH trip to North Korea? I'm thinking might be able to get last minute tickets there for august 
I'm meant to be going in October. Hopefully it wont be a warzone by then and I will actually be able to go! Will post pics up Joecooool said:
I'm not convinced the North Korean army would be willing to fight. They know they would lose and losing would ultimately mean a better life. I think you would probably see a mass surrender.
Im fairly certain they would, you only need look at the hatred that the officers have had trained into them and the conscripts will simply follow the officers.It would be a bloodbath for NK, just as it was in the 50's.
The only difference this time will be that the Western world will have live footage of the war and society will revulse at the carnage, just as they did during the first Gulf War (crispy Iraqi convoys?) and demand that the West/South Korea stop the hostilities.
Mojocvh said:
Jimbeaux said:
Massive air defenses work when you are attacked by aircraft. Remote launched cruise missiles, etc can easily penetrate air defences and destroy many, not nearly all, but many of these defences. Far more importantly is that the communications networks that link those defences back to their leadership will be targeted right out of the gate. Being cutoff and not having the benefit of tactical intel, the NK middle level commanders will not be able to deploy their weapons effectively or adjust as initiative is not encouraged in dictatorial armies.
I think that you are correct in saying initiative is not encouraged, however a indoctrinated army has no need of it, all they have to do is keep firing the arty until they are killed or run out of shells.As for even contemplating a ground assault it ranks up there with the invasion plans for the Japanese Mainland in WW2 as a one way ticket for 10, if not 100's of thousands.
Joecooool said:
I'm not convinced the North Korean army would be willing to fight. They know they would lose and losing would ultimately mean a better life. I think you would probably see a mass surrender.
That would make sense Joe if they had an idea through leaked information that things are better, I am not so sure they do. Example: I saw a medical doctor interviewed that escaped some way or the other. He stated that, educated as he considered himself, he believed it when told that all of those grain sacks with other nation's flags on them was simply tribute to their great leader. Now that is some scary $hit.Jimbeaux said:
Joecooool said:
I'm not convinced the North Korean army would be willing to fight. They know they would lose and losing would ultimately mean a better life. I think you would probably see a mass surrender.
That would make sense Joe if they had an idea through leaked information that things are better, I am not so sure they do. Example: I saw a medical doctor interviewed that escaped some way or the other. He stated that, educated as he considered himself, he believed it when told that all of those grain sacks with other nation's flags on them was simply tribute to their great leader. Now that is some scary $hit.
I've met a few North Koreans. They've spent their whole life being brainwashed. If they were told the moon was owned by North Korea, and North Korea alone, made out of cheese and built by aliens to honour Kim they woud believe it.
So if anyone wants to go attacking NK they are attacking the great leader and they would defend to the death. They know no different.
A country with a dying militaristic dictator, a population brainwashed into his personality cult, a huge but not modern military, being villified by the rest of the world, a starving population and even a military that is starting to slowly starve, a conflict effectively on hold for 50 odd years, a country divided in two.
The solution to all their problems is just over the border, they could re-unite Korea and capture enough food.
Its not hard, all the artillery is there ready, the armoured divisions and infantry are ready to roll, the airforce has many aircraft ready, and there are already covert operations going on in South korea. If Best Korea wait too long the risk of USA and South Korea invading is too great. Waiting would also mean the population getting restless and the ROK invading. Its time to go now or else it will be too late. Look even the USA is threatening war, the aircraft carrier of the coast is only there as a threat. The only option is to use one of the biggest armies in the world to re-unite Korea, it would be the end of all the problems. And the glorious leader will be remembered for all time as the greatest leader of all time.
For what it is worth I wouldnt bet against them having a go and it all falling apart very quickly. To me it would seem better to the leaders of DPRK to attack than just to stay as they are and get even more sanctions against them and for the population to starve and fight against the government. A cornered starving animal is a dangerous animal.
The solution to all their problems is just over the border, they could re-unite Korea and capture enough food.
Its not hard, all the artillery is there ready, the armoured divisions and infantry are ready to roll, the airforce has many aircraft ready, and there are already covert operations going on in South korea. If Best Korea wait too long the risk of USA and South Korea invading is too great. Waiting would also mean the population getting restless and the ROK invading. Its time to go now or else it will be too late. Look even the USA is threatening war, the aircraft carrier of the coast is only there as a threat. The only option is to use one of the biggest armies in the world to re-unite Korea, it would be the end of all the problems. And the glorious leader will be remembered for all time as the greatest leader of all time.
For what it is worth I wouldnt bet against them having a go and it all falling apart very quickly. To me it would seem better to the leaders of DPRK to attack than just to stay as they are and get even more sanctions against them and for the population to starve and fight against the government. A cornered starving animal is a dangerous animal.
Mr Dave said:
A country with a dying militaristic dictator, a population brainwashed into his personality cult, a huge but not modern military, being villified by the rest of the world, a starving population and even a military that is starting to slowly starve, a conflict effectively on hold for 50 odd years, a country divided in two.
The solution to all their problems is just over the border, they could re-unite Korea and capture enough food.
Its not hard, all the artillery is there ready, the armoured divisions and infantry are ready to roll, the airforce has many aircraft ready, and there are already covert operations going on in South korea. If Best Korea wait too long the risk of USA and South Korea invading is too great. Waiting would also mean the population getting restless and the ROK invading. Its time to go now or else it will be too late. Look even the USA is threatening war, the aircraft carrier of the coast is only there as a threat. The only option is to use one of the biggest armies in the world to re-unite Korea, it would be the end of all the problems. And the glorious leader will be remembered for all time as the greatest leader of all time.
For what it is worth I wouldnt bet against them having a go and it all falling apart very quickly. To me it would seem better to the leaders of DPRK to attack than just to stay as they are and get even more sanctions against them and for the population to starve and fight against the government. A cornered starving animal is a dangerous animal.
Not sure I agree with your reasoning, but if NK tries to go south with a surprise attack they would be stopped dead within 10 miles of the DMZ. The only material achievement will be total destruction of any NK combat units committed, probable removal of the NK regime and the death of probably several hundred thousand if not million RoK civpop. He's a nutter, not suicidal, and even if he was I bet the NK heidbummers like their special privileges enough to stop him.The solution to all their problems is just over the border, they could re-unite Korea and capture enough food.
Its not hard, all the artillery is there ready, the armoured divisions and infantry are ready to roll, the airforce has many aircraft ready, and there are already covert operations going on in South korea. If Best Korea wait too long the risk of USA and South Korea invading is too great. Waiting would also mean the population getting restless and the ROK invading. Its time to go now or else it will be too late. Look even the USA is threatening war, the aircraft carrier of the coast is only there as a threat. The only option is to use one of the biggest armies in the world to re-unite Korea, it would be the end of all the problems. And the glorious leader will be remembered for all time as the greatest leader of all time.
For what it is worth I wouldnt bet against them having a go and it all falling apart very quickly. To me it would seem better to the leaders of DPRK to attack than just to stay as they are and get even more sanctions against them and for the population to starve and fight against the government. A cornered starving animal is a dangerous animal.
TVR Moneypit said:
Just had the MIL arrive from Beijing.
So, how was the sinking of the SK ship reported in China? It wasn't.
The USA / SK training exercise? Nope. Nothing to report.
Kim's threats of a 'sacred war'? Total news blackout.
Apparently even Kims nuclear tests barely got a mention.
Oh my; that is scary.So, how was the sinking of the SK ship reported in China? It wasn't.
The USA / SK training exercise? Nope. Nothing to report.
Kim's threats of a 'sacred war'? Total news blackout.
Apparently even Kims nuclear tests barely got a mention.
TVR Moneypit said:
Jimbeaux said:
TVR Moneypit said:
Just had the MIL arrive from Beijing.
So, how was the sinking of the SK ship reported in China? It wasn't.
The USA / SK training exercise? Nope. Nothing to report.
Kim's threats of a 'sacred war'? Total news blackout.
Apparently even Kims nuclear tests barely got a mention.
Oh my; that is scary.So, how was the sinking of the SK ship reported in China? It wasn't.
The USA / SK training exercise? Nope. Nothing to report.
Kim's threats of a 'sacred war'? Total news blackout.
Apparently even Kims nuclear tests barely got a mention.
Jimbeaux said:
TVR Moneypit said:
Jimbeaux said:
TVR Moneypit said:
Just had the MIL arrive from Beijing.
So, how was the sinking of the SK ship reported in China? It wasn't.
The USA / SK training exercise? Nope. Nothing to report.
Kim's threats of a 'sacred war'? Total news blackout.
Apparently even Kims nuclear tests barely got a mention.
Oh my; that is scary.So, how was the sinking of the SK ship reported in China? It wasn't.
The USA / SK training exercise? Nope. Nothing to report.
Kim's threats of a 'sacred war'? Total news blackout.
Apparently even Kims nuclear tests barely got a mention.
superkartracer said:
Jimbeaux said:
TVR Moneypit said:
Jimbeaux said:
TVR Moneypit said:
Just had the MIL arrive from Beijing.
So, how was the sinking of the SK ship reported in China? It wasn't.
The USA / SK training exercise? Nope. Nothing to report.
Kim's threats of a 'sacred war'? Total news blackout.
Apparently even Kims nuclear tests barely got a mention.
Oh my; that is scary.So, how was the sinking of the SK ship reported in China? It wasn't.
The USA / SK training exercise? Nope. Nothing to report.
Kim's threats of a 'sacred war'? Total news blackout.
Apparently even Kims nuclear tests barely got a mention.
hidetheelephants said:
Mr Dave said:
A country with a dying militaristic dictator, a population brainwashed into his personality cult, a huge but not modern military, being villified by the rest of the world, a starving population and even a military that is starting to slowly starve, a conflict effectively on hold for 50 odd years, a country divided in two.
The solution to all their problems is just over the border, they could re-unite Korea and capture enough food.
Its not hard, all the artillery is there ready, the armoured divisions and infantry are ready to roll, the airforce has many aircraft ready, and there are already covert operations going on in South korea. If Best Korea wait too long the risk of USA and South Korea invading is too great. Waiting would also mean the population getting restless and the ROK invading. Its time to go now or else it will be too late. Look even the USA is threatening war, the aircraft carrier of the coast is only there as a threat. The only option is to use one of the biggest armies in the world to re-unite Korea, it would be the end of all the problems. And the glorious leader will be remembered for all time as the greatest leader of all time.
For what it is worth I wouldnt bet against them having a go and it all falling apart very quickly. To me it would seem better to the leaders of DPRK to attack than just to stay as they are and get even more sanctions against them and for the population to starve and fight against the government. A cornered starving animal is a dangerous animal.
Not sure I agree with your reasoning, but if NK tries to go south with a surprise attack they would be stopped dead within 10 miles of the DMZ. The only material achievement will be total destruction of any NK combat units committed, probable removal of the NK regime and the death of probably several hundred thousand if not million RoK civpop. He's a nutter, not suicidal, and even if he was I bet the NK heidbummers like their special privileges enough to stop him.The solution to all their problems is just over the border, they could re-unite Korea and capture enough food.
Its not hard, all the artillery is there ready, the armoured divisions and infantry are ready to roll, the airforce has many aircraft ready, and there are already covert operations going on in South korea. If Best Korea wait too long the risk of USA and South Korea invading is too great. Waiting would also mean the population getting restless and the ROK invading. Its time to go now or else it will be too late. Look even the USA is threatening war, the aircraft carrier of the coast is only there as a threat. The only option is to use one of the biggest armies in the world to re-unite Korea, it would be the end of all the problems. And the glorious leader will be remembered for all time as the greatest leader of all time.
For what it is worth I wouldnt bet against them having a go and it all falling apart very quickly. To me it would seem better to the leaders of DPRK to attack than just to stay as they are and get even more sanctions against them and for the population to starve and fight against the government. A cornered starving animal is a dangerous animal.
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