How far will house prices fall? [Volume 3]

[MycroftWard]

BigBen said:

MycroftWard said:

fido said:

MycroftWard said:

Are you saying we ought to accept the fact the capitalism (since the early eighties) should be making 90% of the population relatively worse off?

That's an interesting graph - so when Britain was an industrial disaster (ala 1970s) the top 1% earnt the least (relatively)! Was this around the same time that the 'bad' wealthy people left the UK? Think you've reaffirmed my thoughts. I'm saying that those who are clever or successful enough to be wealthy in the first place should be able to dispose of a large proportion of their income as they wish

So you think this is a good trend for society? I hope your in the top 1%, otherwise your some sort of turkey voting for Xmas (no offence).

What was great about capitalism was that it was spreading wealth throughout society, generally improving the human condition.

Edited by MycroftWard on Thursday 4th October 13:59

Relatively worse off compared to their own starting position or relatively worse off compared to the top 1%. I would argue only the former matters.

I agree the former is the primary concern, but they are connected. If the highest earners have a disproportionate about of money it can prove inflationary for the little people and price them out.

I think we've seen this to some degree with buy-toi-let, owner occupancy is on the decline as the wealthy can afford to buy houses and rent them to those who are priced out of the market.

[spikeyhead]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Taken from the details of that very odd place.

BEDROOM 2: - 19' 6'' x 8' (5.94m x 2.44m)

BEDROOM 3: - 24' x 5' 10'' (7.32m x 1.78m)

That third bedroom is useless unless it's converted to a bowling alley. The second one it's much better.

[Sonic]

It sounds like a converted hallway

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Does no one actually 'do' gardens any more?!

[Hitch78]

The only nice thing in those pictures is the Bentley.

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

And it has an island unit that's been dumped, skew whiff, in the middle of the kitchen and dining chairs pinched from a Sega Rally arcade game circa 1996.

[baz1985]

It's not directly comparable to the Bolton property, but another GM example for circa £400k: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

[Hitch78]

[Alan Partridge]Has this kitchen been distressed?[/Alan Partridge]

[MycroftWard]

I see we're back to criticising peoples choice in curtains and the like, must get myself into this.

[Hitch78]

This thread offers a wealth of opportunities to participate!

[Digga]

MycroftWard said:

I see we're back to criticising peoples choice in curtains and the like, must get myself into this.

IT's fair sport and very cathartic, get some.

Here's my dig; incongruous decoration, given the vintage of the property, aside from the window frames, looking at the sitting room and master bed pics you would be forgiven for thinking it a far older - circa 1930's - build, than it actually is.

It's going to be a lot of work to adapt for most contemporary styles.

ETA the price doesn't look OTT though - is this reasonable for Hale?

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

IIRC you could get a very nice 3-storey victorian semi in Timperley for that sort of brass.

[Serendipity72]

Homes in Britain are vastly overpriced for three reasons.
1) 1947 Town and Country Planning Act. Treats the countryside as a park to be preserved at a huge cost to real quality of life, making building land far too costly. So we live in expensive rabbit hutches. Chinese apartments are bigger than British houses.
2) Housing benefit. 6 million households are on this which is just ridiculous. As in any market if you increase the amount of money available the price goes up. So housing benefit is a main cause of house price inflation.
3) Quantitative easing. A recession happens when asset values get out of hand. The cure for a recession is a recession because it restores realistic asset values. QE stops this process, maintaining distorted asset values. So we don't recover from the recession and go into stagflation.

So government is interfering with the market by using these three mechanisms. Get rid of them and house prices would correct sharply downwards to where they should be and then ordinary working people would be able to afford proper homes and the building trade would be very busy indeed.

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Not sure about making it 3 bed - surely there's a lot of families that want the extra bed - two kids or even just for visitors?

As for the garage conversiom, that will be divisive because anyone that actually wants or needs a garage will be oot.

[chris watton]

Digga said:

Not sure about making it 3 bed - surely there's a lot of families that want the extra bed - two kids or even just for visitors?

As for the garage conversiom, that will be divisive because anyone that actually wants or needs a garage will be oot.

We looked at quite a few houses with garage conversions - but quickly realised that I did want a garage, especially when considering the winters we've had of late.

It wouldn't be too bad if there was room to build another garage by the side of the house, but that's rarely possible due to restricted width.....

[Digga]

All of which reminds me:

The Macc Lads said:

Friend of mine got married a week last Saturday
Him and his wife moved out of Macc, they bought a house in Hale
At least we know now that we can still ring them
At least is isn't altering them (Altrincham)
But give me Macclesfield any bloody day
I love Macclesfield, the gravy and the chips
I love Macclesfield, the crack's got bigger tits
Bear's Head, Nags Head, Flower Pot, George & Dragon, Queen's,
Red Lion, White Lion, Chestergate, Pack Horse and Waters Green

If I had to move away, I'd be back in a couple of days or I'd die

I love Macclesfield, where they wear flat caps,
I love Macclesfield, we've got no Southern tts
Bull's Head, King's Head, Durham Ox, George and Fool's Nook
Millstone, Oxford, Highwayman, Cock and Puss in Boots

I love Macclesfield, decent pints of bitter
I love Macclesfield, all the crack's much fitter
I love Macclesfield, the Cut and Jodrell Bank
I love Macclesfield, its a great place for a walk
I love Macclesfield, ooh bi do bi doo
I love Macclesfield and Macclesfield loves you

[IroningMan]

Digga said:

And it has an island unit that's been dumped, skew whiff, in the middle of the kitchen and dining chairs pinched from a Sega Rally arcade game circa 1996.

Who on earth still does dark-stained window frames?

[baz1985]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Hale/Hale Barns are both substantially more affluent than Timperley. At £400k, I don't think it's too bad value, this is £750k http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope... or an identi-kit refurb http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

This has been on sale for a while:
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/new-homes-for-sale/prop...

[Pork]

Serendipity72 said:

Homes in Britain are vastly overpriced for three reasons.
1) 1947 Town and Country Planning Act. Treats the countryside as a park to be preserved at a huge cost to real quality of life, making building land far too costly. So we live in expensive rabbit hutches. Chinese apartments are bigger than British houses.
2) Housing benefit. 6 million households are on this which is just ridiculous. As in any market if you increase the amount of money available the price goes up. So housing benefit is a main cause of house price inflation.
3) Quantitative easing. A recession happens when asset values get out of hand. The cure for a recession is a recession because it restores realistic asset values. QE stops this process, maintaining distorted asset values. So we don't recover from the recession and go into stagflation.

So government is interfering with the market by using these three mechanisms. Get rid of them and house prices would correct sharply downwards to where they should be and then ordinary working people would be able to afford proper homes and the building trade would be very busy indeed.

I think its even simpler than that - money supply.

The government look after business primarily, which means the welfare of the people is secondary. To look after business, they have to make sure that money is flowing, so QE is part of the solution.

Added to this, people who bought a home at the right time were not just fortunate, they were financial geniuses (genii?)...or so they would have you believe. When we were due a correction in already over-priced houses, arguably around 2002-2003, the then government were so afraid of a correction, they did all they could to ensure "no more boom and bust" was delivered.

I'd rather have boom and busts, it's healthy. For individuals, it’s good news - it means everyone is conscious of living within their means. For business, it is not - it means people watch what they spend. Which once won the day?

As a nation, we've gorged on debt and there's two ways out of it - one if to have a recession, clear all the cobwebs and come out stronger for it. Businesses will suffer, but generally speaking, individuals will be better off in the long run, avoiding a life where you're having to take a 50 years mortgage just to house your family (though the Sky subs/iPhone 5 might have to go on hold, is this really what should be pushed as being important in life?)

The second option is to allow inflation to erode the debt. This will keep businesses happy as we'll all be allowed/able to keep spending. The downsides are that in 20-30 years, we'll be in such a pickle financially, the government will tell us that Britain cannot survive with its aging population, without allowing young working immigrant into the UK in their hundreds of thousands, possibly millions.

Now, I'm not xenophobic, but that's a terrible plan. Out tiny little island is already overcrowded and that isn’t the solution. We need a government that is willing to act on behalf of the individuals, families and communities, not solely with the interest of big businesses. Going the way it’s going, the UK will become a very unpleasant place to live where unless you work all the hours god sends, you simply won’t be able to have a decent standard of living.

The people will be more miserable than they are today, but at least businesses will be happy, eh?

And breathe....

[Digga]

Pork said:

The government look after business primarily, which means the welfare of the people is secondary. To look after business, they have to make sure that money is flowing, so QE is part of the solution.

I disagree strongly on this point. I think it rather the case that the (last) government looked after welfare, enculcating the culture of dependece - whether that be on benefits or state non-jobs - first, and business possibly not even second unless you;re talking about 'big' business.

As for money supply, intetrsting argument here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-04/guest-pos...