Sun rises two days early - in Greenland
Discussion
MK4 Slowride said:
kerplunk said:
Eric Mc said:
Is it warming though?
Are you kidding? about twice the global rate or something like that.
t, really! It'll be like 9-11 x 1000.kerplunk said:
turbobloke said:
The real Apache said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Are these particularly thick scientists? Dear God how utterly absurd
Common occurrence with climate officialdumb these days.
The increasingly desperate attempts to tie any global oddity with MMGW/CC has moved from 'bloody ridiculous' (BR) to 'frankly hysterical' (FH)
turbobloke said:
kerplunk said:
Eric Mc said:
Is it warming though?
Are you kidding? about twice the global rate or something like that.
Here's a more informative graph showing the temperature trends for the summer AND the annual.
See here for a discussion of DMI data:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/DMI-cooling-Arctic...
turbobloke said:
Given the rampant substitution going on in news releases of regional and global temperatures...for the 'Arctic' as opposed to where actual temperatures are measured, as the man said is it basically a convincing idea to use land/city/Airport temperatures for temperatures at sea?
We've moved off the point but according to the sceptical science page the DMI data corroborates GISStemp's smoothing from land stations methodology:
turbobloke said:
As to 'twice the global rate', you seem to be going off a 2004 article in No Scientist. Cherry picking of timescale perhaps - see my bold in the quote that follows. In that article, dated as it is, it's not clear where modelling ends and data (if there is any in use) begins, not on the first re-read anyway. Current reports (2010) shouild refer to El Nino...see below.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn6615-arctic-...
Meanwhile "according to the Danish Meteorological Institute, Arctic temperatures are currently below -35.15 degrees Celsius or -31.27 degrees Fahrenheit. That is more than five degrees below normal and the lowest reading since 2004. The slope of decline has also recently been quite sharp, dropping from 252K on January 1, a drop of 14 degrees in 22 days."
So is this twice as much warming thing actually half as much cooling?
As above temperatures in both polar regions are both below normal atm regardless of substitution colouring in by proxy. This false colour rendition appears to reflect reality more than most.
Meanwhile reports of high temperatures in 2010 also suffer from a typical error of omission, namely, reference to the cause: transient natural El Nino.
It's all a bit on the short timescale side anyway. Let's wait a few decades and see if a Dalton Minimum emerges and all that new ice heats up the world by virtue of the 2nd Law of Thermos Dynamics.
Cold since January 1st? Weather not climate http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn6615-arctic-...
Meanwhile "according to the Danish Meteorological Institute, Arctic temperatures are currently below -35.15 degrees Celsius or -31.27 degrees Fahrenheit. That is more than five degrees below normal and the lowest reading since 2004. The slope of decline has also recently been quite sharp, dropping from 252K on January 1, a drop of 14 degrees in 22 days."
So is this twice as much warming thing actually half as much cooling?
As above temperatures in both polar regions are both below normal atm regardless of substitution colouring in by proxy. This false colour rendition appears to reflect reality more than most.
Meanwhile reports of high temperatures in 2010 also suffer from a typical error of omission, namely, reference to the cause: transient natural El Nino.
It's all a bit on the short timescale side anyway. Let's wait a few decades and see if a Dalton Minimum emerges and all that new ice heats up the world by virtue of the 2nd Law of Thermos Dynamics.
Edited by kerplunk on Monday 17th January 18:30
Edited by kerplunk on Monday 17th January 18:31
Edited by kerplunk on Monday 17th January 18:33
BBC Points West right now, talking to kids in their school about energy saving - one little sprog said "If we don't turn off our electricity at school, all the polar ices caps will melt and all of the Polar Bears will die"!
Is this the state our education (read - enviromentalist propaganda) these days?
Is this the state our education (read - enviromentalist propaganda) these days?
kerplunk said:
turbobloke said:
kerplunk said:
Eric Mc said:
Is it warming though?
Are you kidding? about twice the global rate or something like that.Here's a more informative graph showing the temperature trends for the summer AND the annual.
See here for a discussion of DMI data:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/DMI-cooling-Arctic...
turbobloke said:
Given the rampant substitution going on in news releases of regional and global temperatures...for the 'Arctic' as opposed to where actual temperatures are measured, as the man said is it basically a convincing idea to use land/city/Airport temperatures for temperatures at sea?
We've moved off the point but according to the sceptical science page the DMI data corroborates GISStemp's smoothing from land stations methodology:turbobloke said:
As to 'twice the global rate', you seem to be going off a 2004 article in No Scientist. Cherry picking of timescale perhaps - see my bold in the quote that follows. In that article, dated as it is, it's not clear where modelling ends and data (if there is any in use) begins, not on the first re-read anyway. Current reports (2010) shouild refer to El Nino...see below.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn6615-arctic-...
Meanwhile "according to the Danish Meteorological Institute, Arctic temperatures are currently below -35.15 degrees Celsius or -31.27 degrees Fahrenheit. That is more than five degrees below normal and the lowest reading since 2004. The slope of decline has also recently been quite sharp, dropping from 252K on January 1, a drop of 14 degrees in 22 days."
So is this twice as much warming thing actually half as much cooling?
As above temperatures in both polar regions are both below normal atm regardless of substitution colouring in by proxy. This false colour rendition appears to reflect reality more than most.
Meanwhile reports of high temperatures in 2010 also suffer from a typical error of omission, namely, reference to the cause: transient natural El Nino.
It's all a bit on the short timescale side anyway. Let's wait a few decades and see if a Dalton Minimum emerges and all that new ice heats up the world by virtue of the 2nd Law of Thermos Dynamics.
Cold since January 1st? Weather not climate http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn6615-arctic-...
Meanwhile "according to the Danish Meteorological Institute, Arctic temperatures are currently below -35.15 degrees Celsius or -31.27 degrees Fahrenheit. That is more than five degrees below normal and the lowest reading since 2004. The slope of decline has also recently been quite sharp, dropping from 252K on January 1, a drop of 14 degrees in 22 days."
So is this twice as much warming thing actually half as much cooling?
As above temperatures in both polar regions are both below normal atm regardless of substitution colouring in by proxy. This false colour rendition appears to reflect reality more than most.
Meanwhile reports of high temperatures in 2010 also suffer from a typical error of omission, namely, reference to the cause: transient natural El Nino.
It's all a bit on the short timescale side anyway. Let's wait a few decades and see if a Dalton Minimum emerges and all that new ice heats up the world by virtue of the 2nd Law of Thermos Dynamics.
Edited by kerplunk on Monday 17th January 18:30
Edited by kerplunk on Monday 17th January 18:31
Edited by kerplunk on Monday 17th January 18:33
Forget the pretty pictures - they mean nothing to me anymore.
What is "The Global Rate" anyway?
Global Rate of what?
Who has worked it out?
Is it a definable figure?
What happens if teh Arctic ice cap disappears anyway (which it won't - of course - at least not for a few millenia).
kerplunk said:
Here's a more informative graph showing the temperature trends for the summer AND the annual.
See here for a discussion of DMI data:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/DMI-cooling-Arctic...
Yes indeed you're once again pointing us to that blog which is full of True Believer junkscience as illustrated many times on these threads before.See here for a discussion of DMI data:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/DMI-cooling-Arctic...
kerplunk said:
We've moved off the point but according to the sceptical science page the DMI data corroborates GISStemp's smoothing from land stations methodology...
To get back on point, on a thread with a link to press coverage claiming that sunrise is a couple of says early due to melting ice, can you explain how a Believer blog focusing on winter temperatures of -30 deg C to -40 deg C is going to explain melting ice? Has the blogger discovered a new mechanism for depressing the freezing (and therefore melting) point of the water up there? Compared to the chart I posted reflecting the melt season trend...the clue is in the name, melt season, when average temperatrue actually makes it above zero deg C? Though that is only an average and will not reflect the temperature at any specific location very well.
Yet more diversionary tactics. Most predictable. Focus on something unrelated to melting ice, and continue to perpetrate the error of omission that average temperature either global or regional offers a mechanism for what's happening.
This paper looks at mechanism for arctic winter temperature variation as focused on by the Believer blog and kerplunk, it does not mention carbon dioxide, global warming, polar heat pixies or anything but ocean-atmosphere coupling and circulation changes.
The Abstract of Semenov and Bengtsson's paper 'Modes of the Wintertime Arctic Temperature Variability' as published in GRL in 2003 said:
It is shown that the Arctic averaged wintertime temperature variability during the 20th century can be essentially described by two orthogonal modes. These modes were identified by an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition of the 1892–1999 surface wintertime air temperature anomalies (40°N–80°N) using a gridded dataset covering high Arctic. The first mode (1st leading EOF) is related to the NAO and has a major contribution to Arctic warming during the last 30 years. The second one (3rd leading EOF) dominates the SAT variability prior to 1970. A correlation between the corresponding principal component PC3 and the Arctic SAT anomalies is 0.79. This mode has the largest amplitudes in the Kara-Barents Seas and Baffin Bay and exhibits no direct link to the large-scale atmospheric circulation variability, in contrast to the other leading EOFs. We suggest that the existence of this mode is caused by long-term sea ice variations presumably due to Atlantic inflow variability.
As per the numerous references to more recently published scientific papers in the climate threads, try Ogi, M., K. Yamazaki, and J. M. Wallace also in GRL (2010).Believer Blog Diversion or Science, Science or Believer Blog Diversion. There we have it.
turbobloke said:
kerplunk said:
Here's a more informative graph showing the temperature trends for the summer AND the annual.
See here for a discussion of DMI data:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/DMI-cooling-Arctic...
Yes indeed you're once again pointing us to that blog which is full of True Believer junkscience as illustrated many times on these threads before.See here for a discussion of DMI data:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/DMI-cooling-Arctic...
kerplunk said:
We've moved off the point but according to the sceptical science page the DMI data corroborates GISStemp's smoothing from land stations methodology...
To get back on point, on a thread with a link to press coverage claiming that sunrise is a couple of says early due to melting ice, can you explain how a Believer blog focusing on winter temperatures of -30 deg C to -40 deg C is going to explain melting ice? Has the blogger discovered a new mechanism for depressing the freezing (and therefore melting) point of the water up there? Compared to the chart I posted reflecting the melt season trend...the clue is in the name, melt season, when average temperatrue actually makes it above zero deg C? Though that is only an average and will not reflect the temperature at any specific location very well.
If we sincerely wish to get back on point we'd stop citing data for the high arctic within a spit of the pole wouldn't we.
In 2010, Ilulissat temperatures for Jun/July/Aug averaged ~13C (about 4C above the long term average) with highs of 18C and was still registering days with temps well above freezing in November:
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/BGJN/2...
Using rule of thumb that allows surrounding hills/mountains to be up to ~2km high and still be above freezing point.
turbobloke said:
Yet more diversionary tactics. Most predictable. Focus on something unrelated to melting ice, and continue to perpetrate the error of omission that average temperature either global or regional offers a mechanism for what's happening.
This paper looks at mechanism for arctic winter temperature variation as focused on by the Believer blog and kerplunk, it does not mention carbon dioxide, global warming, polar heat pixies or anything but ocean-atmosphere coupling and circulation changes.
Believer Blog Diversion or Science, Science or Believer Blog Diversion. There we have it.
I'm not talking about AGW on this thread.This paper looks at mechanism for arctic winter temperature variation as focused on by the Believer blog and kerplunk, it does not mention carbon dioxide, global warming, polar heat pixies or anything but ocean-atmosphere coupling and circulation changes.
The Abstract of Semenov and Bengtsson's paper 'Modes of the Wintertime Arctic Temperature Variability' as published in GRL in 2003 said:
It is shown that the Arctic averaged wintertime temperature variability during the 20th century can be essentially described by two orthogonal modes. These modes were identified by an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition of the 1892–1999 surface wintertime air temperature anomalies (40°N–80°N) using a gridded dataset covering high Arctic. The first mode (1st leading EOF) is related to the NAO and has a major contribution to Arctic warming during the last 30 years. The second one (3rd leading EOF) dominates the SAT variability prior to 1970. A correlation between the corresponding principal component PC3 and the Arctic SAT anomalies is 0.79. This mode has the largest amplitudes in the Kara-Barents Seas and Baffin Bay and exhibits no direct link to the large-scale atmospheric circulation variability, in contrast to the other leading EOFs. We suggest that the existence of this mode is caused by long-term sea ice variations presumably due to Atlantic inflow variability.
As per the numerous references to more recently published scientific papers in the climate threads, try Ogi, M., K. Yamazaki, and J. M. Wallace also in GRL (2010).Believer Blog Diversion or Science, Science or Believer Blog Diversion. There we have it.
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