Climate change - the POLITICAL debate.
Discussion
nelly1 said:
Just watched Channel 4 News' report on '2012 being the year we all started taking notice of Man Made Global Warming', as it was OFFICIALLY the second wettest year ever!
In the UK.
In records that stretch all the way back to 1910!
We had a terrible drought (proof of rainfall being a thing of the past), before the wettest Summer in 100 years (see, just what we said...er...) and biblical floods (followed by a couple of interviews with a vicar and a publican in wellies who both said along the lines of "Meh! Weather's weather isn't it?").
Such a load of biased claptrap I haven't witnessed since the last BBC 'special'
Fear not, the BEEB haven't let you down. John Hammond even managed to get it in on the Celebrity Mastermind show!In the UK.
In records that stretch all the way back to 1910!
We had a terrible drought (proof of rainfall being a thing of the past), before the wettest Summer in 100 years (see, just what we said...er...) and biblical floods (followed by a couple of interviews with a vicar and a publican in wellies who both said along the lines of "Meh! Weather's weather isn't it?").
Such a load of biased claptrap I haven't witnessed since the last BBC 'special'
Jasandjules said:
LOL I saw that and said the same thing.
I also don't recall it being called Global Colder but Wetter either....
I've noticed that all their predictions seem to follow the current weather, which is very clever indeed!!!I also don't recall it being called Global Colder but Wetter either....
For instance at the beginning of 2012 Global Warming caused the huge drought, with hose pipe bans and dire predictions to come, and at the end of 2012 Global Warming caused the huge floods not seen in the last decade.
The only flaw in their otherwise Baldrick-esque cunning plan is that most people have already spotted this...
Pesty said:
wow its all disaster today isn't it every channel every news programe.. Global climate change and we need to take heed! Everywhere has had floods !
Apparently those fantastic summers we all remember are a thing of the past.
There are really in full on apocalypse mode.
Slow news day.Apparently those fantastic summers we all remember are a thing of the past.
There are really in full on apocalypse mode.
All this drought and hot dry climate they have been predicting for years ... and now we see that 4 of the 5 wettest years since records began all the way back in, er, 1910, have been in this century
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/...
Moreover the mean temp, compared to the average for 1981-2010 is, region by region, near enough right on the average (slightly down apparently but not enough to get excited about) and despite all the clouds required to deliver the rain the hourse of sunshine are, surprisingly, about on the average as well - only a couple of percentage points off in most places and somwhat withing any error bars one might wish to consider I would have thought.
Rainfall, of course, is up and as this mostly occurred in the last 7 months of the year it will have given the impression of being extra extra wet - hence the claims that we are seeing and likely to see more extreme precipitation events - it, when it rains more rain will be delivered in a short period of time.
It is, of course, the only thing to say that seems to fit the "statistical" narrative.
Still, as I recall there was a prediction that there would be an extended cold spell this winter but not until about now. However Accuweather doesn't currently seem to think there is anything imminent in the next 15 days. So unless there is a sudden change and a greatly extended winter period I doesn't seem like it will amount to much.
From the point of view of energy bills that is just as well. It should help to offset some of the obscene new "carbon" taxation heading our way.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9779000/W...
Telegraph article said:
Wind farm protesters backed by planning minister Nick Boles
People opposed to onshore wind farms should not have their views “ridden over roughshod”, the planning minister has told the energy minister in a private letter.
People opposed to onshore wind farms should not have their views “ridden over roughshod”, the planning minister has told the energy minister in a private letter.
Article said:
Nick Boles told John Hayes, a fellow Conservative, that “local people have genuine concerns” and “wind farms are not appropriate in all settings”.
The Daily Telegraph has been told that Mr Boles warned Mr Hayes in the letter that people “bitterly resented” having onshore wind farm developments imposed on them by planners after an inquiry.
The intervention will be a major boost for communities which are fighting the construction of turbines near their homes.
It is also the first evidence of a Tory ministerial alliance against Liberal Democrat attempts to introduce more onshore wind turbines.
Mr Boles is looking to build an informal alliance against wind turbines with Mr Hayes, a near constituency neighbour, without having to get agreement from Ed Davey, the Lib Dem Climate Change Secretary.
Campaigners are fighting to halt the spread of wind turbines, with communities complaining that they blight properties and harm wildlife, particularly bats and birds.
The Daily Telegraph has been told that Mr Boles warned Mr Hayes in the letter that people “bitterly resented” having onshore wind farm developments imposed on them by planners after an inquiry.
The intervention will be a major boost for communities which are fighting the construction of turbines near their homes.
It is also the first evidence of a Tory ministerial alliance against Liberal Democrat attempts to introduce more onshore wind turbines.
Mr Boles is looking to build an informal alliance against wind turbines with Mr Hayes, a near constituency neighbour, without having to get agreement from Ed Davey, the Lib Dem Climate Change Secretary.
Campaigners are fighting to halt the spread of wind turbines, with communities complaining that they blight properties and harm wildlife, particularly bats and birds.
Jasandjules said:
deeps said:
Even Mastermind tonight had a BBC weatherman in the chair, and a prime time opportunity not to be missed, spouted how the weather has changed over the last 2 decades due to MMGW, and we should expect wet summers and possibly cold winters from now on!
Quite how they keep a straight face is beyond me! Only 10 years ago the same 'experts' were forecasting warm dry summers and mild wet winters. Shameless t
ts!
LOL I saw that and said the same thing.Quite how they keep a straight face is beyond me! Only 10 years ago the same 'experts' were forecasting warm dry summers and mild wet winters. Shameless t
ts!I also don't recall it being called Global Colder but Wetter either....
The Blackster said:
By 2080, London will be between 2C and 6C hotter than it is now...
Every part of the UK is likely to be wetter in winter and drier in summer, according to the projections.
The government hopes UKCP09 will allow citizens, local authorities and businesses to plan for future decades.
It uses computer models of the world's climate to make projections of parameters such as temperature, rainfall and wind.
See - Hotter, with wet winters and dry summers.Every part of the UK is likely to be wetter in winter and drier in summer, according to the projections.
The government hopes UKCP09 will allow citizens, local authorities and businesses to plan for future decades.
It uses computer models of the world's climate to make projections of parameters such as temperature, rainfall and wind.
Just what the models said, innit?
It is actually going to be a lovely Summer. Not hot but quite dry and warm it's going to be lovely.
However we will be told that elsewhere in the world it's dreadful and we should be concerned.
The Sun is fairly quiet but we've taken the hit of the drop off in its excitable nature and we should get a couple of fairly pleasant years before more upheaval around 2016.
This forecast is brought to you courtesy of looking at the past and the numerous precedents it gives, I have around a 70% confidence in this prediction. it has cost the Country and you nothing and just an hour of my time.
However we will be told that elsewhere in the world it's dreadful and we should be concerned.
The Sun is fairly quiet but we've taken the hit of the drop off in its excitable nature and we should get a couple of fairly pleasant years before more upheaval around 2016.
This forecast is brought to you courtesy of looking at the past and the numerous precedents it gives, I have around a 70% confidence in this prediction. it has cost the Country and you nothing and just an hour of my time.
nelly1 said:
Jasandjules said:
deeps said:
Even Mastermind tonight had a BBC weatherman in the chair, and a prime time opportunity not to be missed, spouted how the weather has changed over the last 2 decades due to MMGW, and we should expect wet summers and possibly cold winters from now on!
Quite how they keep a straight face is beyond me! Only 10 years ago the same 'experts' were forecasting warm dry summers and mild wet winters. Shameless tts!
LOL I saw that and said the same thing.Quite how they keep a straight face is beyond me! Only 10 years ago the same 'experts' were forecasting warm dry summers and mild wet winters. Shameless t
ts!I also don't recall it being called Global Colder but Wetter either....
The Blackster said:
By 2080, London will be between 2C and 6C hotter than it is now...
Every part of the UK is likely to be wetter in winter and drier in summer, according to the projections.
The government hopes UKCP09 will allow citizens, local authorities and businesses to plan for future decades.
It uses computer models of the world's climate to make projections of parameters such as temperature, rainfall and wind.
See - Hotter, with wet winters and dry summers.Every part of the UK is likely to be wetter in winter and drier in summer, according to the projections.
The government hopes UKCP09 will allow citizens, local authorities and businesses to plan for future decades.
It uses computer models of the world's climate to make projections of parameters such as temperature, rainfall and wind.
Just what the models said, innit?
Far enough away for anyone involved with the idea to be fairly certain their reputation will not suffer if they are wrong but they might just be reported as "visionaries" if someone can provide information that sort of fits whatever has happened by then.
Got to pay for it now of course, whether it will be spent usefully or not.
I wonder if one could put a case the the Energy companies about being unpaid tax collectors and absolving them from that task by not paying the tax component of their invoices?
That should allow them to claim that they cannot pay the government since they had been unable to collect the tax.
We really do need to ensure that the governement gets as little money as possible so that they are not tempted to spend it unwisely. A c- credit rating would help if that meant the government was unable to afford to simply borrow their way to excessive spending.
An article from The Register.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/01/02/delay_clim...
I spotted this quote.
"The study, which also included researchers in Switzerland, New Zealand, Australia and Germany, found that the timing of greenhouse emission reduction is far more influential than any scientific uncertainty. And that means the politics is now far more important than anything that might pop up on denier blogs."
My bold.
It's an odd quote and an odd statement but nice to know (sort of) that the world, even the warmist world in this case, agrees with the hypothesis of this thread.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/01/02/delay_clim...
I spotted this quote.
"The study, which also included researchers in Switzerland, New Zealand, Australia and Germany, found that the timing of greenhouse emission reduction is far more influential than any scientific uncertainty. And that means the politics is now far more important than anything that might pop up on denier blogs."
My bold.
It's an odd quote and an odd statement but nice to know (sort of) that the world, even the warmist world in this case, agrees with the hypothesis of this thread.
turbobloke said:
In terms of politics and this thread yes but in terms of science it's just the usual carp.
It may be seen as another angle on 'the science is settled (but uncertain) so we need to act now to prevent thermageddon' which as above is total carp, infinitely fishy.
Indeed. Which is why it's nice to see the admission about politics. Just a shame they did not recognise the need to backdate the admission.It may be seen as another angle on 'the science is settled (but uncertain) so we need to act now to prevent thermageddon' which as above is total carp, infinitely fishy.
If this approach is to be the way they pakn to move things forward they are, in effect, bypassing any science requirement - probably because they now know that everyone knows the basis of it is crap.
The Guardian March 2012
The Met Office sometimes give the impression that they just look at what the weather's done for the past couple of months and extrapolate that out for the next few years/decades. Someone ought to get an adult to confiscate their expensive computers and just give them a piece of seaweed to squeeze. 
Grauniad didn't said:
The Arctic is melting!!!11!1one! UK winters will be colder and dryer from now on!!11one!
The Guardian January 2013Grauniad didn't said:
The Arctic is melting!!!11!1one! UK winters will be colder and dryer warmer and wetter from now on!!11one!
The Met Office sometimes give the impression that they just look at what the weather's done for the past couple of months and extrapolate that out for the next few years/decades. Someone ought to get an adult to confiscate their expensive computers and just give them a piece of seaweed to squeeze. loafer123 said:
Early signs of a cold spell in the models in late Jan.
But do they need models to predict that?Traditionally end of Jan begining of Feb is the highest gas demand and thus coldest period in the South East of the UK.
We had it all written down on paper when I worked for British Gas in the 80s/90s/00s as a gas demand forecaster.
Over the years they forced people to follow computer models, so the process lost it's "experts".
Same happend with the London Weather Centre chaps who were all made redundant and so errors were doubled.
Whne they moved the temperature sensing point from the roof of the weather centre (sold the building) they picked up the temp from Fulham (IIRC) which was 1.5 degress higher (IIRC) and we had to adjust all our historcle data records by the same amount!
No wonder they saw a rise in the later part of the last century.
Jaged said:
loafer123 said:
Early signs of a cold spell in the models in late Jan.
But do they need models to predict that?Traditionally end of Jan begining of Feb is the highest gas demand and thus coldest period in the South East of the UK.
We had it all written down on paper when I worked for British Gas in the 80s/90s/00s as a gas demand forecaster.
Over the years they forced people to follow computer models, so the process lost it's "experts".
Same happend with the London Weather Centre chaps who were all made redundant and so errors were doubled.
Whne they moved the temperature sensing point from the roof of the weather centre (sold the building) they picked up the temp from Fulham (IIRC) which was 1.5 degress higher (IIRC) and we had to adjust all our historcle data records by the same amount!
No wonder they saw a rise in the later part of the last century.
And yep, it's not exactly unknown for the time of year to be cold though getting the balance right based on experience sounds horribly accurate and profit limiting compared to using computers, "models" and stuff that's made up for tax purposes.
That said the remodelling against your historical data records is an interesting piece of information. There must be so many other areas, outside the central Climate industry number manipulation chicanery, in which such activity was required in order to fudge the books or the results at certain times if only they could be found. It's not so much that the new source of readings would have made any real difference to your supply decisions, more that anyone going back to the oficial records looking for 'proof' of warming might find such information and misconstrue (or simply misrepresent) what it really means.
A little far from the cent of this topic perhaps but ...
HMRC have decided to publish the names and photos of people who have been imprisoned for evading large amounts of tax. Mostly Duty on dutiable goods and VAT fraud it seems. One is unlikely to think of such people as our saviours although I am coming to the conclusion that any means of keeping money out of the hands of government is laudable. As we all know governement will simply waste everything they can get their hands on + another 10 or 15% per annum. So it is our interests to limit their supplies.
Anyway, deciding it was worth taking a few moments to discover something about HMRC's appraoch I follwed a link to some mug shots and, lo and behold, they have stuck the lot on Flickr along with a description of the crimes. Interesting use of a photo sharing site. I wonder how much compo the crims will later claim for defamation or whatever - especially isf any of them go for an appeal and are fouold to be badly served by the courts.
But I digress.
There I was reading about unpaid duty on fags and booze and vat fraud carousels of mobile phones and so on when suddenly up pops "Operation Tulip".
"The gang set up a chain of bogus companies to trade fraudulently in EU emissions allowances – known as carbon credits. In the first case of its kind, the gang stole around £38 million through a complex missing trader fraud in a six-month period starting in January 2009."
So, it only lasted 6 months but in that time they found a way to extract £38million from alleged carbon credit trading.
I bet they weren't the only ones around the world dipping into that trough.
£38M in 6 months is even more than a small team of footballers earn isn't it? It would probably pay the expenses of a few MPs.
Diversion over - back to the man thrust of the thread.
HMRC have decided to publish the names and photos of people who have been imprisoned for evading large amounts of tax. Mostly Duty on dutiable goods and VAT fraud it seems. One is unlikely to think of such people as our saviours although I am coming to the conclusion that any means of keeping money out of the hands of government is laudable. As we all know governement will simply waste everything they can get their hands on + another 10 or 15% per annum. So it is our interests to limit their supplies.
Anyway, deciding it was worth taking a few moments to discover something about HMRC's appraoch I follwed a link to some mug shots and, lo and behold, they have stuck the lot on Flickr along with a description of the crimes. Interesting use of a photo sharing site. I wonder how much compo the crims will later claim for defamation or whatever - especially isf any of them go for an appeal and are fouold to be badly served by the courts.
But I digress.
There I was reading about unpaid duty on fags and booze and vat fraud carousels of mobile phones and so on when suddenly up pops "Operation Tulip".
"The gang set up a chain of bogus companies to trade fraudulently in EU emissions allowances – known as carbon credits. In the first case of its kind, the gang stole around £38 million through a complex missing trader fraud in a six-month period starting in January 2009."
So, it only lasted 6 months but in that time they found a way to extract £38million from alleged carbon credit trading.
I bet they weren't the only ones around the world dipping into that trough.
£38M in 6 months is even more than a small team of footballers earn isn't it? It would probably pay the expenses of a few MPs.
Diversion over - back to the man thrust of the thread.
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