Meanwhile, In Syria
Discussion
It’s not even ‘America First’ in this case - the winners in this latest move are Erdogan/Assad/Putin. It’s more like ‘Turkey/Syria/Russia First’.
Of course there’s an argument to be made that American troops shouldn’t have been in Syria in the first place however once they were there it seems madness to step aside in the way they have and leave their allies to be slaughtered.
Of course there’s an argument to be made that American troops shouldn’t have been in Syria in the first place however once they were there it seems madness to step aside in the way they have and leave their allies to be slaughtered.
TBF, the West and the USA in particular have got Middle Eastern intervention badly wrong, for a very long time.
There are all sorts of ideal scenarios, about what should be, but it's one of those unwinnable "can't get there from here" sort of situations. You are, quite literally damned if you do and damned if you do not.
There are all sorts of ideal scenarios, about what should be, but it's one of those unwinnable "can't get there from here" sort of situations. You are, quite literally damned if you do and damned if you do not.
Digga said:
TBF, the West and the USA in particular have got Middle Eastern intervention badly wrong, for a very long time.
There are all sorts of ideal scenarios, about what should be, but it's one of those unwinnable "can't get there from here" sort of situations. You are, quite literally damned if you do and damned if you do not.
I'm not sure about the "USA in particular".There are all sorts of ideal scenarios, about what should be, but it's one of those unwinnable "can't get there from here" sort of situations. You are, quite literally damned if you do and damned if you do not.
We set the tone a good 150yrs ago.
The Ruskies aren't exactly known for great policy in the region. They'd be better off influencing referenda
Murph7355 said:
Digga said:
TBF, the West and the USA in particular have got Middle Eastern intervention badly wrong, for a very long time.
There are all sorts of ideal scenarios, about what should be, but it's one of those unwinnable "can't get there from here" sort of situations. You are, quite literally damned if you do and damned if you do not.
I'm not sure about the "USA in particular".There are all sorts of ideal scenarios, about what should be, but it's one of those unwinnable "can't get there from here" sort of situations. You are, quite literally damned if you do and damned if you do not.
We set the tone a good 150yrs ago.
The Ruskies aren't exactly known for great policy in the region. They'd be better off influencing referenda
Russia have had some fairly disastrous interventions, not least in Afghanistan in the 1980's.
Overall, we have all contributed and interfered.
mko9 said:
Exactly, which is why the Russians are involved in Syria in support of Assad. They don't want to risk losing access to that port.
They exchanged all the weapons Assdolf required in exchange for signing over Syria's oil & gas reserves including local waters exploration rights. Assdolf has a dead regime.Good analysis:
GREAT GAME ANALYSIS:
Primer for what’s happened in Syria with Turkey and the Kurds:
1) After ISIS’ defeat, Kurdish YPG allied with Syrian Arabs as the Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) to set up an autonomous safe zone (Rojova) in North Syria bordering Turkey
2) The YPG is a legal offshoot of a proscribed Kurdish terrorist group called PKK. The YPG is not itself a proscribed terrorist group.
3) Turkey has been dealing with PKK separatist terrorism inside her borders for many years
4) Turkey feared that an autonomous Kurdish zone at her border with Syria would stoke PKK Kurdish separatism domestically
5) To her credit, Turkey has been hosting 2m Syrian refugees
6) Since a failed alleged coup attempt and his spat with very powerful US based Sufi cleric Fethullah Güllen, pro-Islamist Erdogan’s domestic ratings and Islamist appeal have been slipping. A resurgent secular candidate Ekrem īmamoglu even took his home base of Istanbul
7) Turkeys economy is flailing and she has lost American (due to Erdogan’s military deal with Russia), Saudi (due Erdogan rightly protesting the Khoshoggi murder), and Syrian (due to Erdogan supporting jihadists against Asad) goodwill. Turkey has few allies left. Erdogan has been seeking a desperate fix to his woes
8 ) Trump’s policy is similar to Obama’s, in that he has been desperate to extricate US troops from foreign conflicts like Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, regardless of the wisdom. This similarity makes the far-left’s current attacks on Trump over the Kurdish issue particularly hypocritical
9) Joining foreign wars is unpredictable and can descend into folly. But once in, hastily withdrawing troops only creates more chaos. It’s how ISIS emerged in Mosul, and it’s what would’ve been behind a Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan, had Trump not u-turned there at the 11th hour
10) Erdogan was requesting Trump let him invade and occupy N.Syria to achieve the following:
i) destroy chance of a free Kurdistan at his borders
ii) create buffer zone in Syria, then move 2m Syrian refugees from Turkey to there (it’s illegal to send refugees back to conflict zones)
11) Trump - as is his wont - unpredictably and astonishingly agreed to Erdogan’s request, and withdrew US troops from N.Syria, leaving a power vacuum that exposed our YPG Kurdish allies to a Turkish invasion, coupled with Jihadist breakouts from ISIS detention facilities in their care
12) This caused the YPG (betrayed & now under aerial and ground attack plus executions from Turkey, after Trump’s green light) to appeal to Asad, mass murdering Syrian tyrant, to march back into N.Syria with his troops, in order to fend off a Turkish invasion & Jihadist resurgence
13) Putin backed Asad, gaining favour from both Syria and the Kurds (after already having successfully divided Turkey from NATO, by suppling Turkey with Russian weapons systems). Meanwhile, Trump lost Turkey by imposing sanctions on her, while losing the Kurds too
14) The USA lost valuable allies. Turkey lost allies. And the Russian sphere of influence now extends to Iran (and by extension Iraq, Lebanon & Yemen), Syria, Kurdish YPG in N.Syria and already to Turkey. Putin is now seen as a more reliable broker in the Middle East than the US President
15) Russians have victoriously marched into abandoned US bases in Syria. Meanwhile, the world is upset with Trump’s erraticism, and the Kurdish YPG feel (and were) betrayed. Summary: big win for Putin. Major loss for NATO, EU, US and overall Western influence. Why does this matter?
16) Important: Russia (unconstrained by red lines) has gained a foothold with rogue regimes (Syria and Iran) that sponsor global terrorism, despise Israel and hate the West. Under Russian influence these territories could become bases for hostile planning against western energy interests
17) Such planning could include, but not be limited to, more Iranian backed strikes against Saudi oil facilities, more Iranian disruption of shipping energy supply routes, Hezbollah terrorist financing and attacks against Israel plus her allies, planned destabilising jihadist attacks on the West
18) Controlling Syrian reconstruction contracts and energy, pushing Saudi and Iraq into the Russian sphere on favourable energy terms, due to fear of Trump’s unreliable friendship after Saudi was attacked and nothing was done (yesterday, Putin got a state visit in Saudi for 1st time in 12 years. And Erdogan has announced a trip to Russia)
19) To appease the populist right and hypocritical populist far-left, the US is distracted by glorious isolationism, and the UK is distracted by the same. Meanwhile, NATO is in jeapordy, Putin is winning in the Middle East... and we’re wondering if Scotland will stay in our union. Disaster.
20) Putin has no term-limits and no democratic accountability. Hence longevity had been his strongest asset. He’s used that to fund and support opposing political trends (far-left and far-right, Islamist and anti-Islamist) in order to seed chaos. Why? What does he gain?
21) Because by backing rising populism and nationalism across the East and West, you succeed in supporting those who wish to break up unions (EU, UK, Spain etc..) and then you can step into the power vacuum and reorder the chaos that ensues, knowing that the US and UK are too busy navel gazing
22) Chaos suits those not currently holding power. Chaos hurts those who do hold power (whereas order preserves the status quo). For Putin to be able to step into US’ shoes as the world’s main broker, he needs to upend the status quo by seeding chaos and then he can enter, bringing order
23) Backing Brexit and Scottish Nationalist aspirations, backing European far-right groups as well as encouraging far-left groups (eg: Wikileaks), including incidents of support to a Black Lives Matter chapter in the US, may all look contradictory, unless you’re keen to step in to divide and rule
24) This is precisely what Putin has achieved in Syria and globally because Obama (too arrogant) and now Trump (too ignorant) were too busy appeasing the far-left and far-right isolationist pressure placed on them respectively. Putin has been stoking that pressure for years
25) With his new foothold in the Middle East, if Putin disrupts our energy routes, prices go up and our economy suffers. When this happens it only further stokes populist discontent, dividing us further (think yellow vests) and making us even more navel gazing.
Putin’s Russia is resurging before our eyes.
26) With his known support for Brexit, and supporting ScotsNat separatism, European populism, prying turkey away from NATO, while securing Asad and Iran, and gaining the Kurds, Putin expands, while we contract.
27) These are visible symptoms of decline that *need to be noticed* before they can be fixed. As is so often the case, it feels like so many of us have been shouting into the wind. I’ve been holding off, but it’s now unavoidable to conclude that the West is in retreat, and Russia is resurgent.
Maajid Nawaz
GREAT GAME ANALYSIS:
Primer for what’s happened in Syria with Turkey and the Kurds:
1) After ISIS’ defeat, Kurdish YPG allied with Syrian Arabs as the Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) to set up an autonomous safe zone (Rojova) in North Syria bordering Turkey
2) The YPG is a legal offshoot of a proscribed Kurdish terrorist group called PKK. The YPG is not itself a proscribed terrorist group.
3) Turkey has been dealing with PKK separatist terrorism inside her borders for many years
4) Turkey feared that an autonomous Kurdish zone at her border with Syria would stoke PKK Kurdish separatism domestically
5) To her credit, Turkey has been hosting 2m Syrian refugees
6) Since a failed alleged coup attempt and his spat with very powerful US based Sufi cleric Fethullah Güllen, pro-Islamist Erdogan’s domestic ratings and Islamist appeal have been slipping. A resurgent secular candidate Ekrem īmamoglu even took his home base of Istanbul
7) Turkeys economy is flailing and she has lost American (due to Erdogan’s military deal with Russia), Saudi (due Erdogan rightly protesting the Khoshoggi murder), and Syrian (due to Erdogan supporting jihadists against Asad) goodwill. Turkey has few allies left. Erdogan has been seeking a desperate fix to his woes
8 ) Trump’s policy is similar to Obama’s, in that he has been desperate to extricate US troops from foreign conflicts like Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, regardless of the wisdom. This similarity makes the far-left’s current attacks on Trump over the Kurdish issue particularly hypocritical
9) Joining foreign wars is unpredictable and can descend into folly. But once in, hastily withdrawing troops only creates more chaos. It’s how ISIS emerged in Mosul, and it’s what would’ve been behind a Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan, had Trump not u-turned there at the 11th hour
10) Erdogan was requesting Trump let him invade and occupy N.Syria to achieve the following:
i) destroy chance of a free Kurdistan at his borders
ii) create buffer zone in Syria, then move 2m Syrian refugees from Turkey to there (it’s illegal to send refugees back to conflict zones)
11) Trump - as is his wont - unpredictably and astonishingly agreed to Erdogan’s request, and withdrew US troops from N.Syria, leaving a power vacuum that exposed our YPG Kurdish allies to a Turkish invasion, coupled with Jihadist breakouts from ISIS detention facilities in their care
12) This caused the YPG (betrayed & now under aerial and ground attack plus executions from Turkey, after Trump’s green light) to appeal to Asad, mass murdering Syrian tyrant, to march back into N.Syria with his troops, in order to fend off a Turkish invasion & Jihadist resurgence
13) Putin backed Asad, gaining favour from both Syria and the Kurds (after already having successfully divided Turkey from NATO, by suppling Turkey with Russian weapons systems). Meanwhile, Trump lost Turkey by imposing sanctions on her, while losing the Kurds too
14) The USA lost valuable allies. Turkey lost allies. And the Russian sphere of influence now extends to Iran (and by extension Iraq, Lebanon & Yemen), Syria, Kurdish YPG in N.Syria and already to Turkey. Putin is now seen as a more reliable broker in the Middle East than the US President
15) Russians have victoriously marched into abandoned US bases in Syria. Meanwhile, the world is upset with Trump’s erraticism, and the Kurdish YPG feel (and were) betrayed. Summary: big win for Putin. Major loss for NATO, EU, US and overall Western influence. Why does this matter?
16) Important: Russia (unconstrained by red lines) has gained a foothold with rogue regimes (Syria and Iran) that sponsor global terrorism, despise Israel and hate the West. Under Russian influence these territories could become bases for hostile planning against western energy interests
17) Such planning could include, but not be limited to, more Iranian backed strikes against Saudi oil facilities, more Iranian disruption of shipping energy supply routes, Hezbollah terrorist financing and attacks against Israel plus her allies, planned destabilising jihadist attacks on the West
18) Controlling Syrian reconstruction contracts and energy, pushing Saudi and Iraq into the Russian sphere on favourable energy terms, due to fear of Trump’s unreliable friendship after Saudi was attacked and nothing was done (yesterday, Putin got a state visit in Saudi for 1st time in 12 years. And Erdogan has announced a trip to Russia)
19) To appease the populist right and hypocritical populist far-left, the US is distracted by glorious isolationism, and the UK is distracted by the same. Meanwhile, NATO is in jeapordy, Putin is winning in the Middle East... and we’re wondering if Scotland will stay in our union. Disaster.
20) Putin has no term-limits and no democratic accountability. Hence longevity had been his strongest asset. He’s used that to fund and support opposing political trends (far-left and far-right, Islamist and anti-Islamist) in order to seed chaos. Why? What does he gain?
21) Because by backing rising populism and nationalism across the East and West, you succeed in supporting those who wish to break up unions (EU, UK, Spain etc..) and then you can step into the power vacuum and reorder the chaos that ensues, knowing that the US and UK are too busy navel gazing
22) Chaos suits those not currently holding power. Chaos hurts those who do hold power (whereas order preserves the status quo). For Putin to be able to step into US’ shoes as the world’s main broker, he needs to upend the status quo by seeding chaos and then he can enter, bringing order
23) Backing Brexit and Scottish Nationalist aspirations, backing European far-right groups as well as encouraging far-left groups (eg: Wikileaks), including incidents of support to a Black Lives Matter chapter in the US, may all look contradictory, unless you’re keen to step in to divide and rule
24) This is precisely what Putin has achieved in Syria and globally because Obama (too arrogant) and now Trump (too ignorant) were too busy appeasing the far-left and far-right isolationist pressure placed on them respectively. Putin has been stoking that pressure for years
25) With his new foothold in the Middle East, if Putin disrupts our energy routes, prices go up and our economy suffers. When this happens it only further stokes populist discontent, dividing us further (think yellow vests) and making us even more navel gazing.
Putin’s Russia is resurging before our eyes.
26) With his known support for Brexit, and supporting ScotsNat separatism, European populism, prying turkey away from NATO, while securing Asad and Iran, and gaining the Kurds, Putin expands, while we contract.
27) These are visible symptoms of decline that *need to be noticed* before they can be fixed. As is so often the case, it feels like so many of us have been shouting into the wind. I’ve been holding off, but it’s now unavoidable to conclude that the West is in retreat, and Russia is resurgent.
Maajid Nawaz
A big win for Turkey - YPG withdrawn from the border areas and US forces out of north east Syria. And they’ll be able to resettle some of the Syrian refugees currently living in Turkey and by doing so change the demographics of the border region.
“Turkey has agreed to a ceasefire in northern Syria to let Kurdish-led forces withdraw, US Vice-President Mike Pence has announced.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50091...
“Turkey has agreed to a ceasefire in northern Syria to let Kurdish-led forces withdraw, US Vice-President Mike Pence has announced.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50091...
Reports US forces have conduced a raid that has killed al-Baghdadi - head of ISIS.
Some UK human rights group has already issued a statement saying the US killed 9 people in a village, not quite sure how they know before the rest of us... ?
He has been reported as killed before so nothing official yet.
Some UK human rights group has already issued a statement saying the US killed 9 people in a village, not quite sure how they know before the rest of us... ?
He has been reported as killed before so nothing official yet.
More relevantly, here (yet again) is the legacy of our meddling in the ME: https://news.sky.com/video/the-holding-camp-where-...
Executive summary: Unintended consequences: we have created the perfect environment for extremism to thrive.
Executive summary: Unintended consequences: we have created the perfect environment for extremism to thrive.
Digga said:
More relevantly, here (yet again) is the legacy of our meddling in the ME: https://news.sky.com/video/the-holding-camp-where-...
Executive summary: Unintended consequences: we have created the perfect environment for extremism to thrive.
C'mon, it's a unique situation no one could have foretold, it's certainly never happened before, not even both times before that it has...Executive summary: Unintended consequences: we have created the perfect environment for extremism to thrive.
andy_s said:
Digga said:
More relevantly, here (yet again) is the legacy of our meddling in the ME: https://news.sky.com/video/the-holding-camp-where-...
Executive summary: Unintended consequences: we have created the perfect environment for extremism to thrive.
C'mon, it's a unique situation no one could have foretold, it's certainly never happened before, not even both times before that it has...Executive summary: Unintended consequences: we have created the perfect environment for extremism to thrive.
It's only happened in just about any place we've ever interfered with in the ME, including Iraq only a few years back. it is funny how, on the ground, the local situation remains resolutely indifferent to the distinction between a legal war and an illegal one. War, it seems, is war. Who knew?
Cobnapint said:
Police have said there are no suspicious circumstances around his death.....WTF
Former UK Army officer, founder of the US and UK funded White helmets causing trouble and working with Al Qaeda in Syria and then accused of being an MI6 agent is found dead in Istanbul after falling from balcony?
No... nothing to see here...
At the end of it all western interference in Syria has strengthened Iran, Russia, Turkey and created countless more jihadis many of whom have inspired, or carried out, attacks in western cities. Oh and Assad is still there.
Will anyone ever be held to account for helping to create this mess?
Will anyone ever be held to account for helping to create this mess?
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