Is now a good time to invest in the stock market?
Discussion
I only ask as looking at a chart of the Dow Jones from the lows of early 2009 at 8,000 range to over 15,000 today & FTSE 100 at the lows of 4,000 range and today over 6,500 that represents approx 87% for Dow Jones & 62% for Footsie. Ok, have all those blue chip stocks increased there revenues / profits / dividends / return on investment by that much since the crash of late 2008 / 2009 period?
Perhaps a financial analyst can answer that for me? I may be wrong but without trawling through loads of accounts I don't believe the financial figures have increased that much over the period. I know it is a simplistic approach, but the markets look over valued in my opinion, even though we are getting daily reports that the economy is just starting to pick up (well in the UK anyway) Should I be cautious? Can anyone prove me wrong please? Ult-Jim.
Perhaps a financial analyst can answer that for me? I may be wrong but without trawling through loads of accounts I don't believe the financial figures have increased that much over the period. I know it is a simplistic approach, but the markets look over valued in my opinion, even though we are getting daily reports that the economy is just starting to pick up (well in the UK anyway) Should I be cautious? Can anyone prove me wrong please? Ult-Jim.
From what I've been reading quantative easing has driven bond yields low, which has lead to more speculative investment ie. stocks and shares driving them higher, when QE ends which could be soon and bond yields increase, a lot of that money will return. Basically my understanding which is not worth much is that you've missed the boat on the big gains.
Bluequay said:
From what I've been reading quantative easing has driven bond yields low, which has lead to more speculative investment ie. stocks and shares driving them higher, when QE ends which could be soon and bond yields increase, a lot of that money will return. Basically my understanding which is not worth much is that you've missed the boat on the big gains.
Market-wide, yes. No point buying in at the top of a market.What I do think is probably worth a punt (once the price is known, anyway) is the Royal Mail. The government will want to make the initial offering go as well as possible so they'll under-value it IMO. Added to that the Royal Mail is certain to be a takeover target in the near term, which will drive prices up too.
At the end of the day, it's gambling. Don't bet with what you can't afford to lose; if it's important, keep the money somewhere safe at a lower yield.
Its time in the market, not timing the market..
https://www.fidelity.com.hk/static/pdf/investor/en...
Another site had a good comparo of someone who went into cash in 2008, someone who started a monthly plan and someone who started later and no surprises the one who paid consistently into their monthly plan came out on top.
Find a lot cost passive tracker, you can even get weighted ones these days that take things like growth (PEG), Yield etc into account and just drop cash into it as and when.
Vanguard has some with like 0.29 or so cost rather than your dodgy 1.5%+ mutual funds etc which on average can never outperform the market over time.
Anyway, loads of info out there if you DOYR. Case out Monevator for a starter.
https://www.fidelity.com.hk/static/pdf/investor/en...
Another site had a good comparo of someone who went into cash in 2008, someone who started a monthly plan and someone who started later and no surprises the one who paid consistently into their monthly plan came out on top.
Find a lot cost passive tracker, you can even get weighted ones these days that take things like growth (PEG), Yield etc into account and just drop cash into it as and when.
Vanguard has some with like 0.29 or so cost rather than your dodgy 1.5%+ mutual funds etc which on average can never outperform the market over time.
Anyway, loads of info out there if you DOYR. Case out Monevator for a starter.
tter...Developed markets still have some upside, P/Es don't look too challenging when looking to future earnings growth.
QE being slowed/stopped is already starting to be priced in, hence the recent US sell off after the fed statement and subsequent creep back.
For the love of God keep clear of bonds.
Commodities, excluding oil, look at the upper reaches of price range.
Precious metals? At your own peril, no fundamentals to support current pricing let alone any increase.
QE being slowed/stopped is already starting to be priced in, hence the recent US sell off after the fed statement and subsequent creep back.
For the love of God keep clear of bonds.
Commodities, excluding oil, look at the upper reaches of price range.
Precious metals? At your own peril, no fundamentals to support current pricing let alone any increase.
ellroy said:
Developed markets still have some upside, P/Es don't look too challenging when looking to future earnings growth.
QE being slowed/stopped is already starting to be priced in, hence the recent US sell off after the fed statement and subsequent creep back.
For the love of God keep clear of bonds.
US looks relatively overvalued, and QE taper likely to start next Wednesday - 10bn baked in, but could well be higher (20bn rumoured in a mix programme) and that may spook the stock market. But regardless, I expect some volatility this week.QE being slowed/stopped is already starting to be priced in, hence the recent US sell off after the fed statement and subsequent creep back.
For the love of God keep clear of bonds.
The 30 year bond is ylelding closing to 4% - that's not a bd return for a safe investment if your strategy is also the return of capital. But I agree there is some more downside on bonds - the 10 year is circa 2.9% - closer to 4% likely in 2 years time.
Gwagon111 said:
That I don't mind, not being civil, I do mind.
I think the old adage "you made your bed" works well in your case. Dont expect people not to pull up your posts, as you proved yourself to be a liar (i know you see it as something other than lies, a jolly jape, bit of craic etc) no doubt you dont care what people think, again jolly good, i just wish PH came with an ability to ignore certain posters posts.OP, it depends if you are wanting to invest in a fund or individual stocks, if anyone knew the right answer they would be doing it themselves. Personally ive been trading my self invested isa over the past two years and earned myself 12k on my fund of 30k, some winners and some losers. A mixture of steady stocks and riskier stocks.
If you invest in individual stocks only risk what you can afford to lose, if you start spread betting be very careful you dont over expose yourself.
Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff