European Union - Ramifications

[AMDBSTony]

walm said:

AMDBSTony said:

Do you not think that if the negative press machine was to cease and more positive scenarios were spread, most of the hysteria would subside and in turn boost the economy?

Boost it above where it would have been if we voted Remain?
No.

Just in a presentation from a guy who handles $70bn + in marketing budgets.
His over-riding message was that what businesses want is certainty.
What the government wants to do now is to delay things as long as possible: they have no plan, evidently.
So he sees "corporates becoming even more cautious".

It's not a collapse in global GDP but certainly it doesn't help.

So lets concentrare on the negative aspects instead of the sentiment of what I am trying to say!

We should embrace change and make it positive, its does actually wirk you know. Maybe I am the eternal optimist but I have to say that my attitude has served me well.

[fredt]

AMDBSTony said:

walm said:

AMDBSTony said:

Do you not think that if the negative press machine was to cease and more positive scenarios were spread, most of the hysteria would subside and in turn boost the economy?

Boost it above where it would have been if we voted Remain?
No.

Just in a presentation from a guy who handles $70bn + in marketing budgets.
His over-riding message was that what businesses want is certainty.
What the government wants to do now is to delay things as long as possible: they have no plan, evidently.
So he sees "corporates becoming even more cautious".

It's not a collapse in global GDP but certainly it doesn't help.

So lets concentrare on the negative aspects instead of the sentiment of what I am trying to say!

We should embrace change and make it positive, its does actually wirk you know. Maybe I am the eternal optimist but I have to say that my attitude has served me well.

Is it really a 'negative press machine' though?

Some key points, that from my point of view seems fairly solid have been made. The main one being that immigration will not be noticeably less then it currently is if we also want access to the open market, which we certainly do.

Now it could very well be we are better off outside EU, I don't personally believe it, but the vote would probably have been remain if it wasn't for the wild massaging of truth from the Brexit side.

But I take your point, we should move forward in positive manner. Starting with getting article 50 underway NOW, so we can get on with our lives.
Would not surprise me to see this not happening at all.

[blueg33]

Today my business has had the first real and measurable impact caused by the result of the referendum.

The uncertainty has caused a major customer to withdraw from the 25 year commitment that was going to close this week. In essence this means that I will probably have to freeze recruitment for that part of the business and 250 homes for vulnerable people will not get built. British manufacturers will not get orders for 250 kitchens, 10 lifts, 10 large construction contracts, countless bricks, tiles, plumbing, joinery etc. All our suppliers are uk based so even this small thing will impact jobs and company turnover. We are just one tiny business, I am sure others will see similar impacts.

[Efbe]

DonkeyApple said:

First soft leak of what Boris' ultimate plan is:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/8f2aca88-3c51-11e6-9f2c-...

I don't think the markets truly believe a full Brexit is going to happen. If Boris were to pull off becoming PM and also keeping the UK in the EU and getting the key concessions then it would be one of the largest master strokes of political achievement in many years.

the problem is that there is only one key concessions. Controlled Migration. That is not going to happen.
Even if we leave the EU and want access to the common market we would need free movement.

The big thing we want is simply not possible with the EU. The only way to change it would be to go back in and wait for it to end... which I think it will, but just not for a while yet.

[remkingston]

blueg33 said:

Today my business has had the first real and measurable impact caused by the result of the referendum.

The uncertainty has caused a major customer to withdraw from the 25 year commitment that was going to close this week. In essence this means that I will probably have to freeze recruitment for that part of the business and 250 homes for vulnerable people will not get built. British manufacturers will not get orders for 250 kitchens, 10 lifts, 10 large construction contracts, countless bricks, tiles, plumbing, joinery etc. All our suppliers are uk based so even this small thing will impact jobs and company turnover. We are just one tiny business, I am sure others will see similar impacts.

Similar vibe my side. I provide temporary workers to the construction industry. We're getting ready to go into recession mode very soon.

Many projects had clauses in that if we left the EU they would either be instantly cancelled or put on hold.

As many end clients are banks and financial services institutions, they are not moving forward until things settle. As they are in the know (and some can argue in control) of the settling process it doesn't look too good.

These large contracts not moving ahead will cause a lot of trades people to become available which will enable contractors to drive wages down.

If the work drys up too quickly, those on the cards will be at risk of being made redundant further growing the pool of available labour to the construction industry driving wages down even further.

If this gets completely out of hand then... well it isn't nice to think about...

As much as we hate and know trickle down economics doesn't work for those at the bottom, it does keep the economy ticking forward.

Scary times...

[DonkeyApple]

Efbe said:

DonkeyApple said:

First soft leak of what Boris' ultimate plan is:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/8f2aca88-3c51-11e6-9f2c-...

I don't think the markets truly believe a full Brexit is going to happen. If Boris were to pull off becoming PM and also keeping the UK in the EU and getting the key concessions then it would be one of the largest master strokes of political achievement in many years.

the problem is that there is only one key concessions. Controlled Migration. That is not going to happen.
Even if we leave the EU and want access to the common market we would need free movement.

The big thing we want is simply not possible with the EU. The only way to change it would be to go back in and wait for it to end... which I think it will, but just not for a while yet.

Indeed but we aren't the only nation that wants to curb bottom end migration and that voice is gathering pace in the EU emboldened by the UK. Time will tell.

[walm]

DonkeyApple said:

Indeed but we aren't the only nation that wants to curb bottom end migration and that voice is gathering pace in the EU emboldened by the UK. Time will tell.

I certainly want to curb my bottom end migration.

[DonkeyApple]

walm said:

DonkeyApple said:

Indeed but we aren't the only nation that wants to curb bottom end migration and that voice is gathering pace in the EU emboldened by the UK. Time will tell.

I certainly want to curb my bottom end migration.

Indeed it only leads to a bottom end invasion!

[Jockman]

walm said:

DonkeyApple said:

Indeed but we aren't the only nation that wants to curb bottom end migration and that voice is gathering pace in the EU emboldened by the UK. Time will tell.

I certainly want to curb my bottom end migration.

[Jockman]

DonkeyApple said:

Efbe said:

DonkeyApple said:

First soft leak of what Boris' ultimate plan is:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/8f2aca88-3c51-11e6-9f2c-...

I don't think the markets truly believe a full Brexit is going to happen. If Boris were to pull off becoming PM and also keeping the UK in the EU and getting the key concessions then it would be one of the largest master strokes of political achievement in many years.

the problem is that there is only one key concessions. Controlled Migration. That is not going to happen.
Even if we leave the EU and want access to the common market we would need free movement.

The big thing we want is simply not possible with the EU. The only way to change it would be to go back in and wait for it to end... which I think it will, but just not for a while yet.

Indeed but we aren't the only nation that wants to curb bottom end migration and that voice is gathering pace in the EU emboldened by the UK. Time will tell.

Can I just ask for clarification on an issue please.

If we accept uncontrolled EU migration we still get access to the single market?

If we insist on controlled EU migration we still get access to the single market but tariffs will be imposed?

[SELON]

All very simple Jockman, except that it's the impossible deal. What business wants and what the public voted for seem mutually exclusive.

So, unless something else changes it will be tariffs (for all the drum beating about other countries leaving, who actually would be bold enough without seeing what happens to the UK?). Also, any barriers to EU nationals entering the UK for work will be mirrored by the EU.

We just lost 10%+ of our economy due to the banking crash. And, disputed record employment, look at the impact on our national mood. Now we are going to lose another chunk. The forecast is between another -10% to +1.6%. Maybe we will get it all back, given enough time. Now what sort of national mood will we be in if we lose another 10%?

Unthinkable, but now it now becomes a possibility.

And this is without the other elements of what we (in my opinion!) lost from being part of the EU.

[Efbe]

DonkeyApple said:

Efbe said:

DonkeyApple said:

First soft leak of what Boris' ultimate plan is:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/8f2aca88-3c51-11e6-9f2c-...

I don't think the markets truly believe a full Brexit is going to happen. If Boris were to pull off becoming PM and also keeping the UK in the EU and getting the key concessions then it would be one of the largest master strokes of political achievement in many years.

the problem is that there is only one key concessions. Controlled Migration. That is not going to happen.
Even if we leave the EU and want access to the common market we would need free movement.

The big thing we want is simply not possible with the EU. The only way to change it would be to go back in and wait for it to end... which I think it will, but just not for a while yet.

Indeed but we aren't the only nation that wants to curb bottom end migration and that voice is gathering pace in the EU emboldened by the UK. Time will tell.

it will. but as much as it pains me to say this; it cannot be done from the outside.

[shakotan]

Jockman said:

DonkeyApple said:

Efbe said:

DonkeyApple said:

First soft leak of what Boris' ultimate plan is:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/8f2aca88-3c51-11e6-9f2c-...

I don't think the markets truly believe a full Brexit is going to happen. If Boris were to pull off becoming PM and also keeping the UK in the EU and getting the key concessions then it would be one of the largest master strokes of political achievement in many years.

the problem is that there is only one key concessions. Controlled Migration. That is not going to happen.
Even if we leave the EU and want access to the common market we would need free movement.

The big thing we want is simply not possible with the EU. The only way to change it would be to go back in and wait for it to end... which I think it will, but just not for a while yet.

Indeed but we aren't the only nation that wants to curb bottom end migration and that voice is gathering pace in the EU emboldened by the UK. Time will tell.

Can I just ask for clarification on an issue please.

If we accept uncontrolled EU migration we still get access to the single market?

If we insist on controlled EU migration we still get access to the single market but tariffs will be imposed?

There no need to agree to anything to trade with EU countries with tariffs in place. That's just how WTO rules work, you don't need to be a member of any special club for that.

[DonkeyApple]

shakotan said:

Jockman said:

DonkeyApple said:

Efbe said:

DonkeyApple said:

First soft leak of what Boris' ultimate plan is:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/8f2aca88-3c51-11e6-9f2c-...

I don't think the markets truly believe a full Brexit is going to happen. If Boris were to pull off becoming PM and also keeping the UK in the EU and getting the key concessions then it would be one of the largest master strokes of political achievement in many years.

the problem is that there is only one key concessions. Controlled Migration. That is not going to happen.
Even if we leave the EU and want access to the common market we would need free movement.

The big thing we want is simply not possible with the EU. The only way to change it would be to go back in and wait for it to end... which I think it will, but just not for a while yet.

Indeed but we aren't the only nation that wants to curb bottom end migration and that voice is gathering pace in the EU emboldened by the UK. Time will tell.

Can I just ask for clarification on an issue please.

If we accept uncontrolled EU migration we still get access to the single market?

If we insist on controlled EU migration we still get access to the single market but tariffs will be imposed?

There no need to agree to anything to trade with EU countries with tariffs in place. That's just how WTO rules work, you don't need to be a member of any special club for that.

What would be interesting would be to know what those tariffs meant for each significant export market in the UK.

I found this article an interesting read with regards to how Brexit got us the weaker currency that we have been so keen for:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/29/was...

[shakotan]

DonkeyApple said:

shakotan said:

Jockman said:

DonkeyApple said:

Efbe said:

DonkeyApple said:

First soft leak of what Boris' ultimate plan is:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/8f2aca88-3c51-11e6-9f2c-...

I don't think the markets truly believe a full Brexit is going to happen. If Boris were to pull off becoming PM and also keeping the UK in the EU and getting the key concessions then it would be one of the largest master strokes of political achievement in many years.

the problem is that there is only one key concessions. Controlled Migration. That is not going to happen.
Even if we leave the EU and want access to the common market we would need free movement.

The big thing we want is simply not possible with the EU. The only way to change it would be to go back in and wait for it to end... which I think it will, but just not for a while yet.

Indeed but we aren't the only nation that wants to curb bottom end migration and that voice is gathering pace in the EU emboldened by the UK. Time will tell.

Can I just ask for clarification on an issue please.

If we accept uncontrolled EU migration we still get access to the single market?

If we insist on controlled EU migration we still get access to the single market but tariffs will be imposed?

There no need to agree to anything to trade with EU countries with tariffs in place. That's just how WTO rules work, you don't need to be a member of any special club for that.

What would be interesting would be to know what those tariffs meant for each significant export market in the UK.

I found this article an interesting read with regards to how Brexit got us the weaker currency that we have been so keen for:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/29/was...

Just look up the tariff rates. They can't differ country to coutry, they apply unilaterally to everyone not in an individual trade agreement.

[Ozzie Osmond]

DonkeyApple said:

I found this article an interesting read with regards to how Brexit got us the weaker currency....

There are no prizes for collapsing the house of cards if you're standing underneath it. As Obama has said, petty nationalism and xenophobia can't do anyone any good in a global trading environment. Sovereignty is an illusion. Stronger together.

"This may be no more than the calm before the real storm."

With FTSE 100 back above 6300 I'm seriously looking at a move out of equities into fixed interest, but they look pricey already and if inflation takes off it would be the wrong position. Inflation? Governments would love to have something to shrink their humungous debts.

[twinturboz]

DonkeyApple said:

I found this article an interesting read with regards to how Brexit got us the weaker currency that we have been so keen for:

Indeed, the Japanese are looking on with envy and every other G7 country has has tried to weaken their currency over the last year or two.

The one big issue over this negotiation is passporting, and I just don't see for now why the Eu will let us have that easily. They are already frothing at the mouth at the chance to move the banks to Frankfurt or Paris. What will persuade them to let us have full passporting access?

From their point of view why would they want the European financial centre outside of the Eurozone.

Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 30th June 10:39

[Ozzie Osmond]

twinturboz said:

From their point of view why would they want the European financial centre outside of the Eurozone.

Well, that's always been my view and London has nonetheless managed to cling on at the top while UK is an EU member. But now the continentals have the opportunity to play a much stronger hand.

I'd always seen Frankfurt as a strong business contender but why would a banker with a nice, wealthy lifestyle in London want to move to Frankfurt? That might give Paris an edge.

And whilst on that subject, I'm sure I'm not alone in noticing the HUGE amount of French people in London these last few years. Moving about in London I reckon French and Polish are the two languages I hear the most - and that doesn't exclude English.

[fredt]

Boris doesn't want to play anymore. He must've had real conviction about brexit!

[shakotan]

fredt said:

Boris doesn't want to play anymore. He must've had real conviction about brexit!

It is entirely possible to beleive that something is for a good cause, but not beleive you are the right person to lead the country in that cause.

Everyone who vote Out didn't think they were eligible for the PM's job.