Crypto Currency Thread
Discussion
I think the last six months were probably necessary in the long-term development of cryptocurrencies.
The point of crypto is to create better payment and value storage tech, where better is measured according to criteria such as efficiency, security, resistance to censorship and so on. The point is not to make people rich.
However, media attention has focused on the 'get-rich-quick' and FOMO aspects, which is what has led to so many people piling in.
Hopefully this dip heralds the beginning of a new lower-profile era for cryptocurrencies. After all, payment tech shouldn't really be exciting or sexy, it's just the plumbing of the financial system that happens behind-the-scenes. Even if BTC is widely adopted for payments, there's no guarantee that the individual coins will have enormous value - that's confusing a stock and flow. I have tried to make this point before about the Quantity Theory of Money, which is that the economic value of transactions is determined by the velocity of circulation of the money supply as well as the total money supply.
The point of crypto is to create better payment and value storage tech, where better is measured according to criteria such as efficiency, security, resistance to censorship and so on. The point is not to make people rich.
However, media attention has focused on the 'get-rich-quick' and FOMO aspects, which is what has led to so many people piling in.
Hopefully this dip heralds the beginning of a new lower-profile era for cryptocurrencies. After all, payment tech shouldn't really be exciting or sexy, it's just the plumbing of the financial system that happens behind-the-scenes. Even if BTC is widely adopted for payments, there's no guarantee that the individual coins will have enormous value - that's confusing a stock and flow. I have tried to make this point before about the Quantity Theory of Money, which is that the economic value of transactions is determined by the velocity of circulation of the money supply as well as the total money supply.
CzechItOut said:
My gut feel is that a lot of people who bought before Dec 2017 have sold up and the majority of those left are more recent purchasers.
I would say the opposite to be honest, at least from my personal experience. The long termers who were in before it started hitting the news are still in. They sold some of their holdings when it started to go crazy in December, and have bought back recently or are still waiting to buy back.People I know at work and some friends who got caught up in the frenzy have mostly sold at a loss, a couple are still holding as they refuse to take a loss, and one is even buying more at these 'cheap' prices
Personally I'm still chasing the obscure altcoins. Ravencoin doing well for me at the moment, I would recommend it, but of course DYOR
bongtom said:
Bitcoin is currently lower than it was in the big drop in Jan.
You know when the price drops behemoth is strangely absent. Funny.
Only so many times you can blame the sell off. If is weird the BTC fanbois seem so blinkered to everything as the next best thing is always around the corner.You know when the price drops behemoth is strangely absent. Funny.
hallion said:
Looks like we are in the despair phase now. I'm buying more. The plan is to accumulate and pound cost average as low as possible and not sell for a few years.
hallion said:
Looks like we are in the despair phase now. I'm buying more. The plan is to accumulate and pound cost average as low as possible and not sell for a few years.
If you're buying now you still stand to lose massively.
Badda said:
If you also believe that the graph is true, why not just buy some equities or something - the boom is over, according to the graph?
I'm buying equities as well (although most of my funds are in premium bonds so i'm not totally reckless :-). I've been buying crypto since 2013 and while the new year boom is well and truly over, bear markets don't last forever especially with crypto. I'm just drip feeding at the moment from an exchange where I have USD setting, it's impossible to call the bottom. Badda said:
If you also believe that the graph is true, why not just buy some equities or something - the boom is over, according to the graph?
Agreed. Charts like that are handy labels to pin trading platitudes too after the event.Hopefully the OP's post was a bit tongue in cheek about trading based on it.
Behemoth said:
Condi said:
Not true, per unit of work or per transaction the current system is incredibly efficient. Think about the volume of bitcoin transactions and how much power that uses Vs the trillions and trillions of dollars per day going through London. Bitcoin is stupidly energy intensive.
It really doesn't matter if continuous renewable energy is used. Hydro in China & Canada produce vast quantities of electricity that isn't used. Iceland produces huge amounts of geothermal power at very low local cost. It's a question of supply & demand and bitcoin is very mobile. The existing cash infrastructure for fiat isn't nearly as flexible.China are building/have built the largest number of thermal power plants anywhere in the world over the last 15 years and the country now produces 25% of the worlds electricity. Do you honestly think that they would be spending all that money if there was 'spare' energy kicking around. Yes the 3 gorges dam produces vast amounts of power, but in a country of a lot of industrial manufacturing and 1bn people 30GW doesnt go all that far.
Have a read of this page - https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumptio... and tell me if you think its really a sustainable system?
I just came across this article about how and why the crypto market is being manipulated.
If true..it is quite an eye opener.
4th Dimension: Bitcoin-Manipulation-Cartel — Price-Suppression is their Goal
https://medium.com/@super.crypto1/4th-dimension-bi...
If true..it is quite an eye opener.
4th Dimension: Bitcoin-Manipulation-Cartel — Price-Suppression is their Goal
https://medium.com/@super.crypto1/4th-dimension-bi...
Condi said:
I wish you actually knew as much as you think you know.
China are building/have built the largest number of thermal power plants anywhere in the world over the last 15 years and the country now produces 25% of the worlds electricity. Do you honestly think that they would be spending all that money if there was 'spare' energy kicking around. Yes the 3 gorges dam produces vast amounts of power, but in a country of a lot of industrial manufacturing and 1bn people 30GW doesnt go all that far.
Have a read of this page - https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumptio... and tell me if you think its really a sustainable system?
It had never occurred to me before what a massive, MASSIVE downside that was to cryptos! Ridiculous in this energy aware age.China are building/have built the largest number of thermal power plants anywhere in the world over the last 15 years and the country now produces 25% of the worlds electricity. Do you honestly think that they would be spending all that money if there was 'spare' energy kicking around. Yes the 3 gorges dam produces vast amounts of power, but in a country of a lot of industrial manufacturing and 1bn people 30GW doesnt go all that far.
Have a read of this page - https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumptio... and tell me if you think its really a sustainable system?
Badda said:
If you also believe that the graph is true, why not just buy some equities or something - the boom is over, according to the graph?
I've watched through the 3 major bitcoin boom and busts and they all follow similar patterns. Each one is vastly bigger in values than the last. And let me tell you, the same guff is spouted on the way up by the people bigging it up, and the same guff is spouted on the way down by either the people who don't believe, or the people who lost money. Ultimately, if you believe in bitcoin these are the times you would look hopefully to buy. If you don't believe in the future of bitcoin, these are generally the times people sell up. And the really clever money buys low and sells at the top, which is way harder than it sounds.
That's all it really comes down to. Individual sentiment. I really can't be bothered listening to people claiming the end of btc, because I heard the same comments when it was 90p, when it was £120 and when its now what £5 grand?
Just like I really can't be bothered listing to people claiming it's "going to the moon". These two over exaggerated views are why we get huge volatile swings. Which are fantastic for many granted.
Nobody here has a clue, I certainly don't have a clue. All we know is every time a bitcoin transaction is made, let's say at 5k. Someone has decided enough is enough and is cashing out, and another person has decided to invest. And these transactions happen every second of every day, all over the planet. There's a market and it's set every day. I find that alone fascinating, considering the amount of times people claim it has zero value. Which tomorrow may well be the case.
Shuvi McTupya said:
I just came across this article about how and why the crypto market is being manipulated.
If true..it is quite an eye opener.
4th Dimension: Bitcoin-Manipulation-Cartel?—?Price-Suppression is their Goal
https://medium.com/@super.crypto1/4th-dimension-bi...
That page is a waste of internet. If true..it is quite an eye opener.
4th Dimension: Bitcoin-Manipulation-Cartel?—?Price-Suppression is their Goal
https://medium.com/@super.crypto1/4th-dimension-bi...
Shuvi McTupya said:
I assume that means you dispute his theory?
Are you saying he is completely wrong, there is no 'cartel' and there is no price manipulation?
Yes. Are you saying he is completely wrong, there is no 'cartel' and there is no price manipulation?
I would argue that since CME opened up easy access to more people, and the investors had the security of the exchange and clearing house behind them, the short sellers are more likely to enter the market. To buy it on random bitcoin exchanges which involve setting up accounts, transferring money to foreign countries, etc is difficult and the people most likely to bother are those who believe in it - most likely buyers rather than sellers. When you can access the market via an exchange which any broker can access then its much easier for short sellers to sell the stock down. A lot of 'smart money' and traditional investors have a dim view of the future value of bitcoin and would probably rather be short than long.
Condi said:
Yes.
I would argue that since CME opened up easy access to more people, and the investors had the security of the exchange and clearing house behind them, the short sellers are more likely to enter the market. To buy it on random bitcoin exchanges which involve setting up accounts, transferring money to foreign countries, etc is difficult and the people most likely to bother are those who believe in it - most likely buyers rather than sellers. When you can access the market via an exchange which any broker can access then its much easier for short sellers to sell the stock down. A lot of 'smart money' and traditional investors have a dim view of the future value of bitcoin and would probably rather be short than long.
Thanks for clarifying! That does seem to have some logic to it I would argue that since CME opened up easy access to more people, and the investors had the security of the exchange and clearing house behind them, the short sellers are more likely to enter the market. To buy it on random bitcoin exchanges which involve setting up accounts, transferring money to foreign countries, etc is difficult and the people most likely to bother are those who believe in it - most likely buyers rather than sellers. When you can access the market via an exchange which any broker can access then its much easier for short sellers to sell the stock down. A lot of 'smart money' and traditional investors have a dim view of the future value of bitcoin and would probably rather be short than long.
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