Crypto Currency Thread
Discussion
98elise said:
Agreed, a bubble is where something grows out of proportion with no sensible logic.
Nobody was investing in video tape futures expecting to become billionaires.
The only two bubbles in recent history are property and tech/internet.
Tape was just a technology that came and went like every other redundant tech before it.
I'd probably add classic cars to that list too.Nobody was investing in video tape futures expecting to become billionaires.
The only two bubbles in recent history are property and tech/internet.
Tape was just a technology that came and went like every other redundant tech before it.
Economic Bubble:
Well you COULD take this as a reasonable definition:
An economic bubble or asset bubble is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value. It could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.
But if you did, then many things would fit the role.
For example, an investor paying the asset costs of, say, a video business and it's stock at £40 a tape based on the implausible view that future rentals would generate a fortune far in excess of the asset price in a quickly expanded market about to collapse from superseding technologies. Whereupon the assets' -the business and stock - intrinsic value (next to nothing) would be strongly exceeded by the asset price paid....
Well you COULD take this as a reasonable definition:
An economic bubble or asset bubble is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value. It could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.
But if you did, then many things would fit the role.
For example, an investor paying the asset costs of, say, a video business and it's stock at £40 a tape based on the implausible view that future rentals would generate a fortune far in excess of the asset price in a quickly expanded market about to collapse from superseding technologies. Whereupon the assets' -the business and stock - intrinsic value (next to nothing) would be strongly exceeded by the asset price paid....
Lemming Train said:
Enough of this bubble nonsense. Has anyone seen James B ? 
The weasel has made a bet he can't honour and owes Dimots an apology he's not man enough to make. So he's lying low till he thinks these matters will be forgotten about because just now it's too embarrassing to show face. Guvernator said:
No you've got it wrong, this is the thread for gloating so in a bull market you get all the "experts" who tell you how clever they are, how their expert analysis backed by years of experience proves crypto is the future, HODL for your life for it will go to the moon. They'll tell you how much imaginary money they have already made and the amount they are still to make. Anyone who doesn't understand this "just doesn't get it"
In a bear market you get all the "experts" telling you it's all smoke and mirrors and laugh at all the suckers who lost money on something which is worthless. Their expert analysis backed by years of financial experience proves it's all a scam, the fundamentals are all wrong and people who bought into it all are the worst kind of idiots and deserve everything they get up to and including losing the shirts on their backs.
I suspect the real truth is somewhere in between. Much like the internet browser wars, the tech will have a use and a few networks will survive and thrive while the rest die out. Some people will make A LOT of money and some people will lose. As ever on PH, ego's get in the way which means you usually only see debate around the extreme ends of the spectrum.
Whilst I agree with 90% of this, there's also a few people who just want to pour custard on the completely bogus claims made by people pumping this on internet forums. You've got to remember that to a good few people with no skin in the game, it at least appears that people that clearly don't understand what they're looking at well enough are getting suckered in and will probably lose out. IMO it's no difference between calling out some of the rediculous claims by BTC pumpers than calling out the claims of that completely bogus and sIn a bear market you get all the "experts" telling you it's all smoke and mirrors and laugh at all the suckers who lost money on something which is worthless. Their expert analysis backed by years of financial experience proves it's all a scam, the fundamentals are all wrong and people who bought into it all are the worst kind of idiots and deserve everything they get up to and including losing the shirts on their backs.
I suspect the real truth is somewhere in between. Much like the internet browser wars, the tech will have a use and a few networks will survive and thrive while the rest die out. Some people will make A LOT of money and some people will lose. As ever on PH, ego's get in the way which means you usually only see debate around the extreme ends of the spectrum.
te filled "industry" Nutrition, with all of the pseudo scientific utter horse st spouted to pull innocent punters in.Just as most of the general population don't understand science (and therefore some get suckered in by fake science and spend £££ on utter horses
t like homeopathy), I'd say that most of the population don't know enough about investments to make a good stab at it. I know I don't have enough of an understanding of investment to make a career out of it, but I DO know enough about the world to know when some of the claims made by BTC pumpers are bogus. It was obvious that the whole cycle we've just seen was a "greater fool" bubble, and it was obvious that an awful lot of the claims made that insinuated that BTC had long term value at those high levels were daft. Some of the claims:
Instant (it isn't)
Feeless (it's not)
Easy / Convenient (lol)
Outside of the control of anyone (usually claimed as a government) - it's not, as you can see via the Bitcoin Cash fiasco
The banking solution for thousands of 3rd worlders (who have neither a smartphone, a 4G network to use it on, or in many cases electricity to charge said smartphone).
Inflation-proof (if you were valuing goods in BTC in the last few months you'd call it hyperinflation)
It's a currancy (doesn't fit the criteria).
Secure (see every exchange fraud / armed robbery from about page 20 ish)
Not reliant on a 3rd party (see above)
Personally, my involvement in this thread would be no different than if you see people trying to sucker old people into Timeshare, or (TBH my favourite rant) pseudoscience based sales of alternative medicine / anti-vaxing / Holland an Barrett / Arbonne / whatever. My wife's side of the family all have various issues with digestion (IBS, Coelliac) and I'm constantly having to help them avoid being ripped off. When people are desperate and lack knowledge on a situation, they'll latch on to things if the patter is convincing hoping for a good outcome. Hell, a good friend's dad got cancer and some new age f
ker convinced him that Raiki and "alternative medicine" was better for him than damaging Chemo. He might still be here if it wasn't for that and now little Nikki doesn't have a dad. There's a good reason that it's called "alternative medicine" and that is that there is no tested situation that's proven to have efficacy. Who will gain from bitcoin? "savvy early investors" maybe, drug dealers definitely and of course the con men. Who loses out? The casual types. That daft bugger who sold everythigng to put into BTC (few of em on the news) who are facing total financial ruin, family collapse, total change of possibility for the kids the lot. The sad fact is that most people who buy into "get rich quick" schemes are likely to be those that can afford the loss least. If the advertising standards agency policed forums, if miss-selling laws (a la our hated banks and their scandals) were applicable to Bitcoin, 90% of the BTC pumpers would be facing something between a hefty fine and a prison sentance.
THAT is why some poeple rag on people like Dimots.
selmahoose said:
Lemming Train said:
Enough of this bubble nonsense. Has anyone seen James B ?
The weasel has made a bet he can't honour and owes Dimots an apology he's not man enough to make. So he's lying low till he thinks these matters will be forgotten about because just now it's too embarrassing to show face.
selmahoose said:
Economic Bubble:
Well you COULD take this as a reasonable definition:
An economic bubble or asset bubble is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value. It could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.
But if you did, then many things would fit the role.
For example, an investor paying the asset costs of, say, a video business and it's stock at £40 a tape based on the implausible view that future rentals would generate a fortune far in excess of the asset price in a quickly expanded market about to collapse from superseding technologies. Whereupon the assets' -the business and stock - intrinsic value (next to nothing) would be strongly exceeded by the asset price paid....
Again that's not a bubble. You are describing a poor business decision in an evolving market. There was no point where the price of video tape was increasing for no good reason.Well you COULD take this as a reasonable definition:
An economic bubble or asset bubble is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value. It could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.
But if you did, then many things would fit the role.
For example, an investor paying the asset costs of, say, a video business and it's stock at £40 a tape based on the implausible view that future rentals would generate a fortune far in excess of the asset price in a quickly expanded market about to collapse from superseding technologies. Whereupon the assets' -the business and stock - intrinsic value (next to nothing) would be strongly exceeded by the asset price paid....
98elise said:
Again that's not a bubble. You are describing a poor business decision in an evolving market. There was no point where the price of video tape was increasing for no good reason.
You've nearly got it.There certainly is a poor business decision. Like Bitcoin, that poor decision is to buy into an already overheated market which is starting to go into death mode. Like BTCers buying into and beyond the 'greed' phase.
By 1986 the serious money had been made. Picture a 200 yard queue of people lining up to pay a shop £25 to join their video club.
That was 1980. Investment on all levels POURS into the industry. By 1986 with a shop on every street, a choice of shops in busy streets, and every corner shop and newsagent with a video rack, there was no queue and no £25 memberships. Retail shop tape renters had to offer an incentive to users.
By then the bubble's burst. Chains are starting to change hands. Chain owners are starting to evolve into landlords of the shops they bought from their video rental profits, and it's slipping down the downside of the bubble graph. Hits a bull trap when shops try surviving for a while by renting out games, then internet technology and streaming starts kicking in and the whole industry is finished, like BTC slowly day by day going back to being worth 0.008p.
The video bubble. From zero to multinational boom to zero in 20 years.
Will Bitcoin get to 20? Truly, who knows. Definitely 10, but things rise and fall much faster nowadays.
Edited by selmahoose on Friday 14th December 22:41
Lemming Train said:
selmahoose said:
Lemming Train said:
Enough of this bubble nonsense. Has anyone seen James B ?
The weasel has made a bet he can't honour and owes Dimots an apology he's not man enough to make. So he's lying low till he thinks these matters will be forgotten about because just now it's too embarrassing to show face.What he obviously doesn't realise is that very few PH users who are aware of his welching care a toss whether he honours his debts or not or give a f
k whether he apologises to Dimots for insulting him or doesn't. It's not that kind of place.
So he'll be back when he realises this (or reads this post) and will resume making his weaselly snide comments as though nothing ever happened.
You'll see.
selmahoose said:
I never had a high opinion of him anyway so his bet-welching doesn't come as any surprise to me.
Be fair... it has only been a couple of days. I doubt he is going to avoid paying. Should take this opportunity to say to Dimots - good job. I know that doesn't mean a lot from a stranger on the internet, but you didn't need to go through with it. And you did. Which says good things about you. I'm sure Condi will find a good use for it.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Be fair... it has only been a couple of days. I doubt he is going to avoid paying.
He already has avoided paying. That boat's sailed. And if he hasn't got the funds and is taking time to get them a)he should have said so and b)he shouldn't be betting in the first place without the funds to cover it.
Dimots already showed you how you settle a bet. Of course he needed to go through with it. And it was never in doubt that he would.
Though unsurprisingly many people did doubt it, or they would have uptaken the weasel's bet. Unless of course they thought it wasn't worth taking as the weasel would only welch anyway. Which, as it turns out, appears to be the case. Nice, eh?
Edited by selmahoose on Saturday 15th December 00:28
selmahoose said:
98elise said:
Again that's not a bubble. You are describing a poor business decision in an evolving market. There was no point where the price of video tape was increasing for no good reason.
You've nearly got it.There certainly is a poor business decision. Like Bitcoin, that poor decision is to buy into an already overheated market which is starting to go into death mode. Like BTCers buying into and beyond the 'greed' phase.
By 1986 the serious money had been made. Picture a 200 yard queue of people lining up to pay a shop £25 to join their video club.
That was 1980. Investment on all levels POURS into the industry. By 1986 with a shop on every street, a choice of shops in busy streets, and every corner shop and newsagent with a video rack, there was no queue and no £25 memberships. Retail shop tape renters had to offer an incentive to users.
By then the bubble's burst. Chains are starting to change hands. Chain owners are starting to evolve into landlords of the shops they bought from their video rental profits, and it's slipping down the downside of the bubble graph. Hits a bull trap when shops try surviving for a while by renting out games, then internet technology and streaming starts kicking in and the whole industry is finished, like BTC slowly day by day going back to being worth 0.008p.
The video bubble. From zero to multinational boom to zero in 20 years.
Will Bitcoin get to 20? Truly, who knows. Definitely 10, but things rise and fall much faster nowadays.
Edited by selmahoose on Friday 14th December 22:41
In a Western economy. many sectors have little intrinsic value e.g. media, fashion, finance.
selmahoose said:
You've nearly got it.
There certainly is a poor business decision. Like Bitcoin, that poor decision is to buy into an already overheated market which is starting to go into death mode. Like BTCers buying into and beyond the 'greed' phase.
By 1986 the serious money had been made. Picture a 200 yard queue of people lining up to pay a shop £25 to join their video club.
That was 1980. Investment on all levels POURS into the industry. By 1986 with a shop on every street, a choice of shops in busy streets, and every corner shop and newsagent with a video rack, there was no queue and no £25 memberships. Retail shop tape renters had to offer an incentive to users.
By then the bubble's burst. Chains are starting to change hands. Chain owners are starting to evolve into landlords of the shops they bought from their video rental profits, and it's slipping down the downside of the bubble graph. Hits a bull trap when shops try surviving for a while by renting out games, then internet technology and streaming starts kicking in and the whole industry is finished, like BTC slowly day by day going back to being worth 0.008p.
The video bubble. From zero to multinational boom to zero in 20 years.
Will Bitcoin get to 20? Truly, who knows. Definitely 10, but things rise and fall much faster nowadays.
That's still not a bubble.There certainly is a poor business decision. Like Bitcoin, that poor decision is to buy into an already overheated market which is starting to go into death mode. Like BTCers buying into and beyond the 'greed' phase.
By 1986 the serious money had been made. Picture a 200 yard queue of people lining up to pay a shop £25 to join their video club.
That was 1980. Investment on all levels POURS into the industry. By 1986 with a shop on every street, a choice of shops in busy streets, and every corner shop and newsagent with a video rack, there was no queue and no £25 memberships. Retail shop tape renters had to offer an incentive to users.
By then the bubble's burst. Chains are starting to change hands. Chain owners are starting to evolve into landlords of the shops they bought from their video rental profits, and it's slipping down the downside of the bubble graph. Hits a bull trap when shops try surviving for a while by renting out games, then internet technology and streaming starts kicking in and the whole industry is finished, like BTC slowly day by day going back to being worth 0.008p.
The video bubble. From zero to multinational boom to zero in 20 years.
Will Bitcoin get to 20? Truly, who knows. Definitely 10, but things rise and fall much faster nowadays.
Edited by selmahoose on Friday 14th December 22:41
Rapid growth of a new technology, low barriers to entry leading to saturation of the market and a flattening of prices. Then new technology making video obsolete leading to a rapid decline in the market. At no point did prices start shooting up for no reason. That's just a product lifecycle.
Calling that a bubble is like talking about the great horse bubble of the 19th century. At one point the streets were full of them and now it's nothing but cars. Horses - they were a bubble I tell you.
AndrewT1275 said:
That's still not a bubble.
Rapid growth of a new technology, low barriers to entry leading to saturation of the market and a flattening of prices. Then new technology making video obsolete leading to a rapid decline in the market. At no point did prices start shooting up for no reason. That's just a product lifecycle.
Calling that a bubble is like talking about the great horse bubble of the 19th century. At one point the streets were full of them and now it's nothing but cars. Horses - they were a bubble I tell you.
Whilst we're busy misslabelling things, here is a graph of the greek economy. Is it a bubble?Rapid growth of a new technology, low barriers to entry leading to saturation of the market and a flattening of prices. Then new technology making video obsolete leading to a rapid decline in the market. At no point did prices start shooting up for no reason. That's just a product lifecycle.
Calling that a bubble is like talking about the great horse bubble of the 19th century. At one point the streets were full of them and now it's nothing but cars. Horses - they were a bubble I tell you.
Some Gump said:
Whilst we're busy misslabelling things, here is a graph of the greek economy. Is it a bubble?
That economic performance was the result of a huge expansion in government and private sector debt after Greece came into the Eurozone and could borrow with minimal spread to Germany, so certainly it relates to a credit bubble.:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/3836000/Europe_Bond_Yields.0.0.png)
coyft said:
selmahoose said:
coyft said:
But you never know....
The product lifecycle (if we're talking about video cassette tapes and recorders) was 1977 when JVC first mass-manufactured them until 2016 when Funai stopped making machines and Sony stopped producing betamax tapes.
The uk video industry bubble was more like 1980 to 1986/7/8 when it conformed to and performed almost exactly as seen in that 'Bubble Graph' on the previous page.
The uk video cassette industry itself continued activity (its 'industry lifecycle') long after its bubble-period, which inflated long after the 'birth' of the product (1975/6?) and had popped and deflated long before the product's 'death' (2016). The 'bubble' was a relatively short period within the product's lifecycle.
Actually advancing disc technology didn't end the video industry. It merely altered the hardware format. Which continues to this day. Shops just changed from renting tape cassettes to renting DVDs. They also adapted by moving from renting films to renting games.
The 'product lifecycle' impact didn't really come till the advent of mainstream streaming, when the concept of requiring a physical product from a physical shop to be played on a specialist physical machine came to an end.
What popped the bubble and started a fast-spreading cancer in the industry was much more about a pattern of consumption.
Edited by selmahoose on Sunday 16th December 22:17
Just in time for the tax season: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tax-on-...
Behemoth said:
Just in time for the tax season: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tax-on-...
It’s a shame that the guidance doesn’t contain a bit more information as to how to register losses and carry forward the useful CGT allowances. This was particularly pertinent though:
‘HMRC does not consider cryptoassets to be currency or money. This reflects the position previously set out by the Cryptoasset Taskforce report (CATF).’
‘If cryptoassets are given away to another person who is not a spouse or civil partner, the individual must work out the pound sterling value of what has been given away. For Capital Gains Tax purposes the individual is treated as having received that amount of pound sterling even if they did not actually receive anything.’
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