Crypto Currency Thread
Discussion
That's a very good point, Bitcoin hasn't experienced a full business cycle and it is new territory. I think its scarcity is a more important factor. Considering the dollar has no scarcity (a trillion printed at will just today), I think Bitcoin will prove very resilient in the next couple of years as we tumble into recession.
Behemoth said:
That's a very good point, Bitcoin hasn't experienced a full business cycle and it is new territory. I think its scarcity is a more important factor. Considering the dollar has no scarcity (a trillion printed at will just today), I think Bitcoin will prove very resilient in the next couple of years as we tumble into recession.
Scarcity won't save BTC (or any other of the 100 coins) I would guess. Thesprucegoose said:
There is enough idiots out there to believe in it, so it will have a market and a value, therefore money can be made. Will it change the world no, will it allow a small minority to become Billionaires/millionaires, yes.
Sure, it won't disappear, it will be slow and painful. Maybe down to 1000 USD by 2022 something vaguely likely that. I don't know of any evidence to the contrary.I don't think anyone is going to get newly rich from it!
Many people who believed in btc as recently as yesterday will have had that belief smashed to bits by the big price crash
If enough people (and it was only a small percentage of the total population that ever believed in btc so far) do give up on it, then it could be finished and crash down towards zero
That volumes were high indicates that btc was being traded as the price fell. Some will read that as being better than very low volumes of bid. Some will read it as capitulation
Even those who remain committed to btc are crackers if they say they aren’t bothered about the recent price action: anyone with a brain would rather not have lost $5k a coin in the last few days.
I’m keeping mine, but that’s not advice. Maybe I will regret it and there is no doubt I will have missed many profitable trading opportunities, whatever happens in the coming months (I already have missed loads of ‘obvious’ moves both on the way up and down). But that’s my choice and I’m ok with it
If enough people (and it was only a small percentage of the total population that ever believed in btc so far) do give up on it, then it could be finished and crash down towards zero
That volumes were high indicates that btc was being traded as the price fell. Some will read that as being better than very low volumes of bid. Some will read it as capitulation
Even those who remain committed to btc are crackers if they say they aren’t bothered about the recent price action: anyone with a brain would rather not have lost $5k a coin in the last few days.
I’m keeping mine, but that’s not advice. Maybe I will regret it and there is no doubt I will have missed many profitable trading opportunities, whatever happens in the coming months (I already have missed loads of ‘obvious’ moves both on the way up and down). But that’s my choice and I’m ok with it
Thesprucegoose said:
the maincoins as well. What is the actual point of it if it now twinned with the stock markets, it was never invented for this reason, yet it's fate is now entwinned.
In a crisis you need currency. If you are poor, which the majority of crypto coin holders are, then you will be looking at this flu pandemic and wanting the security of usable money. That means disposing of speculative assets if they are sufficiently liquid and converting them into usable currency. On top of that the crypto world contains a lot of fringe individuals who desire the idea of disruption to law and order and government control. But when faced with the reality of their childish desires their thoughts revert to needing ‘Mother’ to tell them it is all going to be ok.
On the one hand you might initially expect crypto’s to gain in value in the face of a looming scenario of economic uncertainty but this is a flu pandemic and people want the safety and security of their govt over them and real money in their hands. A crypto has no value and no purpose in such a scenario. You can’t buy medicine with it. You can’t buy a coffin with it. You can’t pay your rent or buy food or toiletries.
The cold reality is is a real world situation it is not an object of any value as a currency. Every culture that has ever had to fight or flight knows what is and isn’t a currency when it really matters. They remain objects of speculation just as they always have been.
DonkeyApple said:
In a crisis you need currency. If you are poor, which the majority of crypto coin holders are, then you will be looking at this flu pandemic and wanting the security of usable money. That means disposing of speculative assets if they are sufficiently liquid and converting them into usable currency.
On top of that the crypto world contains a lot of fringe individuals who desire the idea of disruption to law and order and government control. But when faced with the reality of their childish desires their thoughts revert to needing ‘Mother’ to tell them it is all going to be ok.
On the one hand you might initially expect crypto’s to gain in value in the face of a looming scenario of economic uncertainty but this is a flu pandemic and people want the safety and security of their govt over them and real money in their hands. A crypto has no value and no purpose in such a scenario. You can’t buy medicine with it. You can’t buy a coffin with it. You can’t pay your rent or buy food or toiletries.
The cold reality is is a real world situation it is not an object of any value as a currency. Every culture that has ever had to fight or flight knows what is and isn’t a currency when it really matters. They remain objects of speculation just as they always have been.
Oh ok so the same as shares and gold then?On top of that the crypto world contains a lot of fringe individuals who desire the idea of disruption to law and order and government control. But when faced with the reality of their childish desires their thoughts revert to needing ‘Mother’ to tell them it is all going to be ok.
On the one hand you might initially expect crypto’s to gain in value in the face of a looming scenario of economic uncertainty but this is a flu pandemic and people want the safety and security of their govt over them and real money in their hands. A crypto has no value and no purpose in such a scenario. You can’t buy medicine with it. You can’t buy a coffin with it. You can’t pay your rent or buy food or toiletries.
The cold reality is is a real world situation it is not an object of any value as a currency. Every culture that has ever had to fight or flight knows what is and isn’t a currency when it really matters. They remain objects of speculation just as they always have been.
Bitcoin is fine and still working 100% as intended, it’s not going anywhere. There is much more to come in the great re-pricing of 2020. It’s money in the bank I am worried about.
dimots said:
DonkeyApple said:
In a crisis you need currency. If you are poor, which the majority of crypto coin holders are, then you will be looking at this flu pandemic and wanting the security of usable money. That means disposing of speculative assets if they are sufficiently liquid and converting them into usable currency.
On top of that the crypto world contains a lot of fringe individuals who desire the idea of disruption to law and order and government control. But when faced with the reality of their childish desires their thoughts revert to needing ‘Mother’ to tell them it is all going to be ok.
On the one hand you might initially expect crypto’s to gain in value in the face of a looming scenario of economic uncertainty but this is a flu pandemic and people want the safety and security of their govt over them and real money in their hands. A crypto has no value and no purpose in such a scenario. You can’t buy medicine with it. You can’t buy a coffin with it. You can’t pay your rent or buy food or toiletries.
The cold reality is is a real world situation it is not an object of any value as a currency. Every culture that has ever had to fight or flight knows what is and isn’t a currency when it really matters. They remain objects of speculation just as they always have been.
Oh ok so the same as shares and gold then?On top of that the crypto world contains a lot of fringe individuals who desire the idea of disruption to law and order and government control. But when faced with the reality of their childish desires their thoughts revert to needing ‘Mother’ to tell them it is all going to be ok.
On the one hand you might initially expect crypto’s to gain in value in the face of a looming scenario of economic uncertainty but this is a flu pandemic and people want the safety and security of their govt over them and real money in their hands. A crypto has no value and no purpose in such a scenario. You can’t buy medicine with it. You can’t buy a coffin with it. You can’t pay your rent or buy food or toiletries.
The cold reality is is a real world situation it is not an object of any value as a currency. Every culture that has ever had to fight or flight knows what is and isn’t a currency when it really matters. They remain objects of speculation just as they always have been.
Bitcoin is fine and still working 100% as intended, it’s not going anywhere. There is much more to come in the great re-pricing of 2020. It’s money in the bank I am worried about.
Wasn’t it intended to be usable as a currency? It’s absolutely failed in that regard. No one can spend it.
Wasn’t it supposed to be a safe haven for money when the banks tank? It’s absolutely failed in that regard this week. It should be rocketing right now.
When debts are called in, everything gets sold.
It's actually very encouraging that bitcoin was liquid enough to allow these rapid drawdowns to happen. Not many exchanges froze up this time around. Bitmex had a hiccup last night and it's the one that is favoured by many deep pocket traders. It's a huge contrast to previous drops over the cliff.
It's not a surprise that bitcoin has crashed along with everything else. It was predicted by many that it would follow a global crash before establishing itself as a better form of money.
A trillion was pumped into the dollar's monetary base this week. The euro & sterling also inflated heavily. Bitcoin will always be capped at 21 million because nobody has their hands at the controls of the protocol.
It's actually very encouraging that bitcoin was liquid enough to allow these rapid drawdowns to happen. Not many exchanges froze up this time around. Bitmex had a hiccup last night and it's the one that is favoured by many deep pocket traders. It's a huge contrast to previous drops over the cliff.
It's not a surprise that bitcoin has crashed along with everything else. It was predicted by many that it would follow a global crash before establishing itself as a better form of money.
A trillion was pumped into the dollar's monetary base this week. The euro & sterling also inflated heavily. Bitcoin will always be capped at 21 million because nobody has their hands at the controls of the protocol.
p1stonhead said:
dimots said:
DonkeyApple said:
In a crisis you need currency. If you are poor, which the majority of crypto coin holders are, then you will be looking at this flu pandemic and wanting the security of usable money. That means disposing of speculative assets if they are sufficiently liquid and converting them into usable currency.
On top of that the crypto world contains a lot of fringe individuals who desire the idea of disruption to law and order and government control. But when faced with the reality of their childish desires their thoughts revert to needing ‘Mother’ to tell them it is all going to be ok.
On the one hand you might initially expect crypto’s to gain in value in the face of a looming scenario of economic uncertainty but this is a flu pandemic and people want the safety and security of their govt over them and real money in their hands. A crypto has no value and no purpose in such a scenario. You can’t buy medicine with it. You can’t buy a coffin with it. You can’t pay your rent or buy food or toiletries.
The cold reality is is a real world situation it is not an object of any value as a currency. Every culture that has ever had to fight or flight knows what is and isn’t a currency when it really matters. They remain objects of speculation just as they always have been.
Oh ok so the same as shares and gold then?On top of that the crypto world contains a lot of fringe individuals who desire the idea of disruption to law and order and government control. But when faced with the reality of their childish desires their thoughts revert to needing ‘Mother’ to tell them it is all going to be ok.
On the one hand you might initially expect crypto’s to gain in value in the face of a looming scenario of economic uncertainty but this is a flu pandemic and people want the safety and security of their govt over them and real money in their hands. A crypto has no value and no purpose in such a scenario. You can’t buy medicine with it. You can’t buy a coffin with it. You can’t pay your rent or buy food or toiletries.
The cold reality is is a real world situation it is not an object of any value as a currency. Every culture that has ever had to fight or flight knows what is and isn’t a currency when it really matters. They remain objects of speculation just as they always have been.
Bitcoin is fine and still working 100% as intended, it’s not going anywhere. There is much more to come in the great re-pricing of 2020. It’s money in the bank I am worried about.
Wasn’t it intended to be usable as a currency? It’s absolutely failed in that regard. No one can spend it.
Wasn’t it supposed to be a safe haven for money when the banks tank? It’s absolutely failed in that regard this week. It should be rocketing right now.
As for worrying about real banks, every government on the planet will be focussed on protecting them unlike the crypto market which not only has no such protection but has suddenly had a massive uplift in the incentivisation to go on the rob.
However, it may be the global event that triggers the reality that for a crypto to become a credible currency and transaction tool it needs to be pegged to something of credible value such as a blend of USD and gold and properly regulated and protected within the global regulatory framework. Which would actually be very easy to do by creating a regulated ETF that was an appropriate blend of fx majors and gold, true currencies, and pegging a digital coin to it.
Edited by DonkeyApple on Friday 13th March 09:03
Sambucket said:
It does scan well as a narrative, but at the end of the day, it's just another sales pitch.
Yep. All these people hoarding it will be long dead before it ever becomes anything but for those on the fringes. And no one will be able to access them if someone dies without writing down the instructions about how to get to them so your kids won’t even have any inheritance
Bluedot said:
Do you have any links ?
Genuine question.
I'm sure there is, but do people really believe ''before establishing itself as a better form of money.'' Come on, really come on.Genuine question.
It has established itself as a great medium for the get rich brigade and scammers.
Edited by Thesprucegoose on Friday 13th March 10:40
Bluedot said:
Do you have any links ?
Genuine question.
It's been widely discussed by many. And for quite a long time. Andreas Antonopolous for one - I'm sure a search would find a soundbite somewhere.Genuine question.
Beyond the initial crash, how bitcoin goes on to behave in a recession is a very interesting topic. Many, me included, have been waiting a long time for this stress test. The next couple of years are going to be a very interesting ride.
We'll get to find out if Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio retains its pole position. We'll discover if its Stock to Flow econometric modelling will continue its astonishing highly correlated and cointegrated path, a mathematical trajectory never before witnessed in any other asset. Bitcoin remains a good asymmetric bet on the future of money, but as ever you'd be a little crazy to bet more than you can afford to lose.
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