Crypto Currency Thread

[Scootersp]

PH4555 said:

I think all these people gleefully waiting for the BTC "bubble to burst" are going to be bitterly disappointed. A $10k drop in value on the day does not equate to the bubble bursting either. That's just what BTC does and usually retraces within a short period.

There is no latent glee here, I am 'hands up' a non holder as I don't really understand what I'm getting/buying and using the "past performance is no guarantee of future" quote I feel I need to understand it's future and I can't square the circle in my head, not knocking anyone in it just explaining why I'm not. Each time it goes up I still don't feel confident it'll continue so I still can't seem to take the plunge.

There seem to be far too many coin types, I can understand your transactional point, but that's like a useful service it doesn't really explain (to me at least) why it would/should increase a huge amount? Right now yes the transactional speed might be useful but surely at each end the people would no doubt be moving their countries currency into and out of it prior to the transaction? These coins don't seem price stable so it's unlikely both parties run balances/have permanent accounts of both?

[Rocket.]

Scootersp said:

There is no latent glee here, I am 'hands up' a non holder as I don't really understand what I'm getting/buying and using the "past performance is no guarantee of future" quote I feel I need to understand it's future and I can't square the circle in my head, not knocking anyone in it just explaining why I'm not. Each time it goes up I still don't feel confident it'll continue so I still can't seem to take the plunge.

There seem to be far too many coin types, I can understand your transactional point, but that's like a useful service it doesn't really explain (to me at least) why it would/should increase a huge amount? Right now yes the transactional speed might be useful but surely at each end the people would no doubt be moving their countries currency into and out of it prior to the transaction? These coins don't seem price stable so it's unlikely both parties run balances/have permanent accounts of both?

It's still like early days of the Internet, I think focus more on blockchain technology than just the notion of coins. Watch a few Charles Hoskinson YouTube videos about Cardano and his ideas.

[Throttle Body]

Scootersp said:

Silver is interesting to me, such a small (relative) market cap.
...
Unlike Gold, lot's of silver mined is used (and more will be re solar and electric higher usage) and barely any is recycled.

Silver/Gold Miners can be a good natural leveraged play on the prices.
...
Silver to Gold earth crust ratio is around 18:1 but recent usual Silver/Gold price ratio is the 50-80 range, when you also have the higher annual industrial usage of silver (most gold just sits there) you'd think it'd be closer to the existence ratio?

Of course, you can get exposure to both gold and silver with gold mining shares. One of my favourite is Agnico Eagle, which reports: "We produced a record 1,782,147 ounces of gold in 2019 and 4.3 million ounces of silver."

[Clive Milk]

This made me laugh at the insanity of the current day Gold rush

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microstrategy-buys-...

They are prepared to borrow or do a share issue just to feed the beast rather than put money into their core business.

The institutions get away with this sort of insanity whilst the punter who borrows to buy some Gamestop shares in laughed at.

Both are equally bad and equally insane.

This is an interesting piece :-

https://www.sovereignman.com/investing/some-clear-...

He's completely wrong in not thinking that is like the new "gold" but he is completely right in :-

"And there are so many banks and funds investing in Crypto now that there may be a natural floor in the marketplace. "

True, but what is the floor price so we can buy in at it? It can't be $50 000 or can it? I'm guessing more like the long term average but doubled, ie $10k .. but who knows?

Meanwhile

https://www.coindesk.com/kiss-gene-simmons-buys-30...

I think that just about sums it up

[Condi]

PH4555 said:

how you do transfer millions from New York from Tokyo in a matter of seconds for virtually no transaction cost, no KYC and Spanish Inquisition from the banks or authorities, no transport cost and no debasement from money expansion? Name me a better method. Gold? Would take months and cost millions in transport/insurance. Any other offers?.

First question is why would any legitimate business want or need to transfer money without any KYC or at least normal banking checks?
Secondly why do you think the rules and regulations exist within finance and banking?
Having answered the 2 questions above, why do think any government or regulator would be happy with what you're describing?
And finally, what is your logical conclusion from the answers to those 3 questions?

Make no mistake, governments around the world could shut bitcoin down pretty quickly. In fact, quite why they haven't still confuses me, but the more it grows the more it has to abide by the usual financial rules.


Also your point about "virtually no transaction cost" is total nonsense. When Bitcoin crashed last week have a look at what the transaction costs were then. The reason why people were prepared to pay that was because otherwise they risked huge devaluation in their assets before they could sell - hardly ideal for a business transferring millions of dollars.


I'm sure you knew all that anyway, its just inconvenient when someone points it out.

[PH4555]

Condi said:

First question is why would any legitimate business want or need to transfer money without any KYC or at least normal banking checks?
Secondly why do you think the rules and regulations exist within finance and banking?
Having answered the 2 questions above, why do think any government or regulator would be happy with what you're describing?
And finally, what is your logical conclusion from the answers to those 3 questions?

Make no mistake, governments around the world could shut bitcoin down pretty quickly. In fact, quite why they haven't still confuses me, but the more it grows the more it has to abide by the usual financial rules.


Also your point about "virtually no transaction cost" is total nonsense. When Bitcoin crashed last week have a look at what the transaction costs were then. The reason why people were prepared to pay that was because otherwise they risked huge devaluation in their assets before they could sell - hardly ideal for a business transferring millions of dollars.


I'm sure you knew all that anyway, its just inconvenient when someone points it out.

I don't know because I don't care as it's totally irrelevant. The need for that vehicle is there, that's all that matters. Name me a better vehicle? If you can't then the answer is staring you right in the face why the adoption rate is growing at a rapid pace and by extension why even more money is flowing into it as a speculatve vehicle as the price rises. Until something better comes along as a hedge against currency debasement/continued money supply inflation (and no, silver and gold aren't it) then personally I don't see anything changing its current trajectory.

I'm confident you'll see more and more big names moving their money into it over the coming years which will increase the price even further. I think 6 figures will quite possibly become a reality this year. I also think it's possible it could drop back to the teens at some point along the way but I'd bet a good amount that it won't go to 4 figures again unless some better, but comparable 'vehicle' were to essentially replace it.

Several countries have officially banned it, but that hasn't stopped their occupants finding ways around and still buying and selling it. The article I linked in the bitcoin thread a couple of days ago does a good job of explaining why it can't be banned without huge amounts of time, effort and money, plus explains why most governments don't have any interest in banning it anyway - in fact many are in favour of it because they can monitor both the on and off ramps, all your transactions on the blockchain and tax you accordingly. It's like a wet dream - certainly when compared to cash anyway.

I'm sorry to hear it confuses you. Perhaps then best stick to a selection of silver Brits, some gold sovereigns and a HL account and be happy with your safe 1% yield.

[Condi]

PH4555 said:

I don't know because I don't care as it's totally irrelevant. The need for that vehicle is there, that's all that matters.

It's not irrelevant at all. You claim it's a need, but can't explain why you think it's a need for any legitimate business.

The answer, very simply, is that its NOT a need, unless you're doing something illegal and underhand, and don't wish to, or can't, use the normal banking system. In which case, there is no way that any government is going to be comfortable with large amounts of money moving about for things which are illegal, and therefore it will be banned or restricted. I don't disagree the need to move money for nefarious purposes exists, it absolutely does, but if that is all Bitcoin is then it will become a target for law enforcement. Good luck getting your money back out again if that happens!

I'm sure you know the risks, after all, if it was safe then you'd only be getting 1% .... but don't come on here complaining when your bitcoins are difficult to covert back into £ and no company will accept them for payment!

You can't even explain what YOU think it is.... In your post you talk about it being a currency hedge? But then the post I quoted above says it's a medium of value transfer? If it's a medium of value transfer then how does that work when it's value can go from $58k to $48k in a matter of days? When transactions fees get high, how is that any better than using the banking system?

Edited by Condi on Friday 26th February 01:27

[PH4555]

Condi said:

Idiot.

Nice.

[Condi]

PH4555 said:

Condi said:

Idiot.

Nice.

Not wrong though, but I did edit it to allow you to tie yourself further in knots with questions you can't answer.

[whatxd]

Condi,

I appreciate you entertaining me in this thread while my Bitcoin investment/gamble went 15x, even though you have mocked me several times.

This week though, I win. When the price broke $50k, I decided I didn't want to be part of the next correction in case it was a top/start of another long term downtrend, so I had a trailing stop limit at Coinbase Pro which I kept increasing as the price went up.

I sold almost everything, six figures, at $52k. Now in my early thirties, I have enough for a new Porsche and the financing for a self build or large renovation/extension project. Thank goodness I went with my gut and didn't listen to the likes of you and Lemming Train back in 2018.

[dimots]

Well done for not listening to Condi. He’s been consistently wrong and I suspect will continue to be.

Yellen wants to manipulate the price of bitcoin downward. I don’t think she can risk banning it because it would drive so much value into unregulated hands. She wants to keep the price down in the hope that bitcoin won’t show up the reality of inflation during an era of money printing.

Even more billions forecast. Billions and trillions of money being added to the bank’s balances all over the world. Yellen, a lifetime banker, creating artificial liquidity and hoping to patch up the cracks in the system until she can slip out of the back door with her millions or billions of backhanders. Might even be trillions by the time she’s done who knows?

There’s a better way to manage this and it’s about accounting for the true price of things and the true cost of things using the incredible new technologies we have been blessed with

[Taita]

What are the limits per trip or annual for zipping to Ireland, buying gold or silver and bringing it back? Eg no VAT but below import levels?

Eta looks like you could have done the Estonia 0% VAT then bring into UK before brexit, as VAT (at 0%) was already paid.
Guess it is 20% currently although I read a few posts on a silver forum about differential VAT?

Edited by Taita on Friday 26th February 07:42

[dimots]

Taita said:

What are the limits per trip or annual for zipping to Ireland, buying gold or silver and bringing it back? Eg no VAT but below import levels?

Eta looks like you could have done the Estonia 0% VAT then bring into UK before brexit, as VAT (at 0%) was already paid.
Guess it is 20% currently although I read a few posts on a silver forum about differential VAT?

Edited by Taita on Friday 26th February 07:42

No VAT on gold in the UK. Or has that changed recently?

[Scootersp]

whatxd said:

Condi,

I appreciate you entertaining me in this thread while my Bitcoin investment/gamble went 15x, even though you have mocked me several times.

This week though, I win. When the price broke $50k, I decided I didn't want to be part of the next correction in case it was a top/start of another long term downtrend, so I had a trailing stop limit at Coinbase Pro which I kept increasing as the price went up.

I sold almost everything, six figures, at $52k. Now in my early thirties, I have enough for a new Porsche and the financing for a self build or large renovation/extension project. Thank goodness I went with my gut and didn't listen to the likes of you and Lemming Train back in 2018.

Condi, is perhaps an extreme re this, I have a similar overall view point but don't feel superior about it, how can you to some extent given exactly what you have done! but I still don't 100% get it and arguably nothing can go exponential like it has, or usually if it does it'll come down hard too.

IMO you have done great 'settling' for your six figures especially if you've bought something with it, hell if I were you I'd probably put a few in some other starter coins because in effect it's free money? It's fantastic almost certainly a once in a lifetime thing for you.

So looking at the overall picture, the person that bought yours what now happens to them in the coming years? Isn't it all just money in and money out and so there will be winners (lots now if they do what you do) and potential losers (later), unless confidence stays and more and more money comes in? (which is where the ponzi comparisons comes from - it's almost the perfect ponzi as you don't even need lure the buyers in with the promise of interest - I'm not saying it is one I'm just saying it is like one, people made money on Ponzi's too if they got out at some point before the carnage)

So hats off to you and I personally think you've firstly held out well and then cashed out to buy a life changing thing ie house, the glimmer you had of this is enough, I can change by life here, will come to everyone in it at some point and that could be a problem eventually.

When you sit back what have you done for this cash, nadda really, that's not a dig (some will be jealous obviously) just that most things that get you what you'll have taken large risk and/or lots of work.

Good luck all, whether in or out of the space.

Edited by Scootersp on Friday 26th February 08:22

[Pentobarbital chic]

whatxd said:

Condi,

I appreciate you entertaining me in this thread while my Bitcoin investment/gamble went 15x, even though you have mocked me several times.

This week though, I win. When the price broke $50k, I decided I didn't want to be part of the next correction in case it was a top/start of another long term downtrend, so I had a trailing stop limit at Coinbase Pro which I kept increasing as the price went up.

I sold almost everything, six figures, at $52k. Now in my early thirties, I have enough for a new Porsche and the financing for a self build or large renovation/extension project. Thank goodness I went with my gut and didn't listen to the likes of you and Lemming Train back in 2018.

You fool! You couldn't wait just a few short weeks, and have a fleet of Lambos?

[B9]

whatxd said:

Condi,

I appreciate you entertaining me in this thread while my Bitcoin investment/gamble went 15x, even though you have mocked me several times.

This week though, I win. When the price broke $50k, I decided I didn't want to be part of the next correction in case it was a top/start of another long term downtrend, so I had a trailing stop limit at Coinbase Pro which I kept increasing as the price went up.

I sold almost everything, six figures, at $52k. Now in my early thirties, I have enough for a new Porsche and the financing for a self build or large renovation/extension project. Thank goodness I went with my gut and didn't listen to the likes of you and Lemming Train back in 2018.

Congrats!

I'm still in for the summer (equal BTC/ETH/ADA weightings) but took out my initial investment back in 2018 so playing with house money.

Feels good

[anonymous-user]

PH4555 said:

So why are you seemingly constantly stting on BTC?

Because even after being involved with it for three and a half years I still don't see any real use for it. As other posters have stated, it only seems to be useful if you want to transfer large sums of money around without arousing suspicion from banks or governments. If you are prepared to send large amounts of money through a completely unregulated system then it has to be dodgy money.

For all the people that have made money I salute you, you have massive balls and have done well. However, lets not kid ourselves that it is investing, it is gambling pure and simple. In reality it is no different to me going to the casino and sticking a few grand on red.

As far as I am concerned anything that can fall 25% in a day is not something I want to put my money into. Fair play to those that bought into a coin early and have seen 10 or even 100 times gains, those people can afford to HODL.

But for every early adopter I bet there are 100 people who bought it late due to FOMO and just watched their investment fall 25% in a day. Fine if you have invested a few hundred pounds, but there will be those people who maxed out their credit cards and put it into some coin they had never heard of thinking it is going to double again.

I would be interested to know whether those that keep pushing Crypto actually believe in the Technology and believe it has real world uses? Or do you just see it as a potential get rich quick scheme and don't really care about it beyond that?

[p_k_n]

The on-chain data available (Glassnode etc) is going to be a vital tool in estimating the market cycle peak - we seem to be in the middle of the cycle right now with a blow-off top expected in summer / autumn. Plan B's 4-year cycle theory is looking accurate. Having an exit strategy is important - I plan to DCA out of the market in the same way I DCA'd in, once the metrics show the end is near. Ultimately my objective is to increase my overall amount of BTC so planning to sell as close to the peak as possible and then rebuy at lower price.

[dimots]

Joey Deacon said:

I would be interested to know whether those that keep pushing Crypto actually believe in the Technology and believe it has real world uses?

Yes. It is incredible technology. It does all the important work of banks programmatically and reduces/removes our reliance on banks, and in turn removes the need for banks to provide stupid profit generating financial products to keep the system running.

Bitcoin is building a permanent ledger of every transaction, is hard money that starkly highlights the impact of money printing, and is open source and politically neutral (although it aligns with technolibertarian principles in itself it is less overtly political than any nation-backed currency).

We have not even scratched the surface of the real world applications. Energy markets, defi and so on... It's pretty limitless.

[halo34]

dimots said:

Yes. It is incredible technology. It does all the important work of banks programmatically and reduces/removes our reliance on banks, and in turn removes the need for banks to provide stupid profit generating financial products to keep the system running.

Bitcoin is building a permanent ledger of every transaction, is hard money that starkly highlights the impact of money printing, and is open source and politically neutral (although it aligns with technolibertarian principles in itself it is less overtly political than any nation-backed currency).

We have not even scratched the surface of the real world applications. Energy markets, defi and so on... It's pretty limitless.

This