Discussion
simon800 said:
If quality and high PE ratios come back into fashion Fundsmith will no doubt excel again, but I just don’t have the foresight to know if and when this might happen.
And I wonder if this is the point that needs to be made here; FS did well and are now not doing so well. They still aren't doing badly, but not as well as they did. Will they do well again in the future? Almost certainly then yes, they will. Over what period of time should you judge the quality of an investment? I recall this being asked of Terry Smith at one of his meet-the-team meetings and he replied that a lifetime wasn't enough.
FS is not flying at the mo, but I'm leaving some money in it as I don't think it will fail to come back in the medium-to-long term.
2Btoo said:
Will they do well again in the future? Almost certainly then yes, they will.
Why would there be certainty that one fund out of 500 odd global ones will be one of the few that do well? There have been some funds that were excellent performers for many years, performed poorly for a bit and never came back, costing investors significant amounts in the process. simon800 said:
2Btoo said:
Will they do well again in the future? Almost certainly then yes, they will.
Why would there be certainty that one fund out of 500 odd global ones will be one of the few that do well? There have been some funds that were excellent performers for many years, performed poorly for a bit and never came back, costing investors significant amounts in the process. Out of curiosity Simon800, what's your interest in FS? Your comments show you not to be a fan of Terry but are you a FS-holder? An ex-FS holder? An IFA, or perhaps someone who has simply done a lot better elsewhere? Curious to know.
2Btoo said:
Fair point, but Smith's track record is perhaps longer than most. His history with Tullet Prebon was excellent, and the approach there (and many of the shares in question) was the same as for FS.
Out of curiosity Simon800, what's your interest in FS? Your comments show you not to be a fan of Terry but are you a FS-holder? An ex-FS holder? An IFA, or perhaps someone who has simply done a lot better elsewhere? Curious to know.
I wouldn’t say not a fan, he ran an excellent fund for many years. I also enjoy his newsletters, views etc. He’s an interesting guy. Out of curiosity Simon800, what's your interest in FS? Your comments show you not to be a fan of Terry but are you a FS-holder? An ex-FS holder? An IFA, or perhaps someone who has simply done a lot better elsewhere? Curious to know.
I just genuinely think a lot of people who buy these funds don’t actually know what they’re buying….the impact of factors, even the very fact there is such thing as a factor tailwind. And performance chasing costs punters a massive amount as various studies have shown.
I held Fundsmith but removed it from our portfolios in December 2021 due to concerns around valuation and vulnerability to a different macro environment.
Stedman said:
Stedman said:
Interesting point at 55 mins - “if you had owned the ‘magnificent seven’ over the last two years, you would have underperformed the index”simon800 said:
2Btoo said:
Fair point, but Smith's track record is perhaps longer than most. His history with Tullet Prebon was excellent, and the approach there (and many of the shares in question) was the same as for FS.
Out of curiosity Simon800, what's your interest in FS? Your comments show you not to be a fan of Terry but are you a FS-holder? An ex-FS holder? An IFA, or perhaps someone who has simply done a lot better elsewhere? Curious to know.
I wouldn’t say not a fan, he ran an excellent fund for many years. I also enjoy his newsletters, views etc. He’s an interesting guy. Out of curiosity Simon800, what's your interest in FS? Your comments show you not to be a fan of Terry but are you a FS-holder? An ex-FS holder? An IFA, or perhaps someone who has simply done a lot better elsewhere? Curious to know.
I just genuinely think a lot of people who buy these funds don’t actually know what they’re buying….the impact of factors, even the very fact there is such thing as a factor tailwind. And performance chasing costs punters a massive amount as various studies have shown.
I held Fundsmith but removed it from our portfolios in December 2021 due to concerns around valuation and vulnerability to a different macro environment.
Sheepshanks said:
Stedman said:
Stedman said:
Interesting point at 55 mins - “if you had owned the ‘magnificent seven’ over the last two years, you would have underperformed the index”
malks222 said:
2Btoo said:
FS is not flying at the mo, but I'm leaving some money in it as I don't think it will fail to come back in the medium-to-long term.
it’s up about 4.5% since the start of the year, and had a solid december/ end of the year. i think it’s been on a decent run of lateTo an extent it looks more attractive now than it did end of 2021. in so much as having a massive slab of consumer staples and healthcare.
Both sectors got left behind last year in the rally, and we've seen many times that what does badly one year tends to do ok the next! It looks like there's about 60% in those 2 sectors.....
PE ratio of 23 x earnings (compared to 30 odd at one point) is also a lot more palatable when compared to the index (17 x).
If tech sells off, I suspect those health/staples stocks get a massive boost.
Both sectors got left behind last year in the rally, and we've seen many times that what does badly one year tends to do ok the next! It looks like there's about 60% in those 2 sectors.....
PE ratio of 23 x earnings (compared to 30 odd at one point) is also a lot more palatable when compared to the index (17 x).
If tech sells off, I suspect those health/staples stocks get a massive boost.
NowWatchThisDrive said:
Not sure about the Mag 7 claim. Granted it's been a bumpier ride, but over the last 2 years they're still ahead of SPX/MSCI World.
If you look at a chart of the magnificent seven, the late 23 high looks about the same as the late 21 high - so I suppose you could say it was flat over that 2yr period. One I found: https://www.atomos.co.uk/knowledge-hub/insights/ma... I don't think it says what the weighting is though.
Sheepshanks said:
If you look at a chart of the magnificent seven, the late 23 high looks about the same as the late 21 high - so I suppose you could say it was flat over that 2yr period.
One I found: https://www.atomos.co.uk/knowledge-hub/insights/ma... I don't think it says what the weighting is though.
Yeah, just had a quick look and the choice of weighting makes for an interesting difference here. This is MSCI World (white) vs Mag 7 weighted pro-rata inline with their weights in SPX (yellow) vs Mag 7 equal weighted (orange), all Total Return over 2Y...One I found: https://www.atomos.co.uk/knowledge-hub/insights/ma... I don't think it says what the weighting is though.
...the notable gap between the latter two being largely explained by NVDA going absolutely nuts vs the rest:
eyebeebe said:
That'll cost you something in the order of $2,000 (probably gone up since I last looked) a month to use! It's Bloomberg.
Ah. Thanks - that's interesting. I've never seen a Bloomberg terminal, let alone played with one! Every day is a school day, eh? ukwill said:
Koyfin might be an affordable alternative. It's certainly a fraction of the cost of a bberg terminal.
Thanks. It looks like Koyfin is free for a limited account so I may have a closer squiz. Thanks for the suggestion. Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff