Share tips thread (Vol 2)
Discussion
I'm still a fan of Finsbury Foods (FIF)
It has a chance to deliver some nice growth if it can make good use of the new bakery capacity it has added in Poland
and it is very well placed to be a consolidator in it's industry - something that many say is necessary and imminent (that has been said for quite a few years now though)
It has a chance to deliver some nice growth if it can make good use of the new bakery capacity it has added in Poland
and it is very well placed to be a consolidator in it's industry - something that many say is necessary and imminent (that has been said for quite a few years now though)
Newky Brown said:
Jambo85 said:
DonkeyApple said:
lots
Couple of top posts on the previous page DA, really enjoy reading your analysis, please do keep it coming if you have time!Having said that, due to my brilliant financial acumen, ie luck, I sold out of my ISA last week to transfer to another platform and reckon I,ve saved a few pennies. Lunch is for wimps and all that.
For me the key is not to ever rush. We brokers give our clients the tools to see everything instantly and to react instantly but the reality is that just because you can very rarely means you should.
I think one of the biggest failings we have as humans is to think that something at 90p today is offering a 10% discount because it was 100p yesterday. The price yesterday is of no relevance to the price today. The price today is simply the price today and any decision must always be based on what is happening today rather than considering anything about yesterday. If someone can make that break from natural human nature then it’s the first major step to being solidly profitable. It’s all about today and what today thinks tomorrow might bring. Yesterday just clouds our judgement.
One trick is to imagine the historical chart is just a flat line set at today’s price. When you do that you are forced to only look forward with nothing in your ear trying to trick you into thinking today’s price is cheap. It’s never cheap. It can only ever be the price the market is valuing it at and all you are interested in is the logic of ascertaining whether the market is more likely to value it more tomorrow or less.
DonkeyApple said:
I’m pleased that the posts are of interest. I’ve spent 25 years watching people lose money they’ve worked hard for for no good reason.
For me the key is not to ever rush. We brokers give our clients the tools to see everything instantly and to react instantly but the reality is that just because you can very rarely means you should.
I think one of the biggest failings we have as humans is to think that something at 90p today is offering a 10% discount because it was 100p yesterday. The price yesterday is of no relevance to the price today. The price today is simply the price today and any decision must always be based on what is happening today rather than considering anything about yesterday. If someone can make that break from natural human nature then it’s the first major step to being solidly profitable. It’s all about today and what today thinks tomorrow might bring. Yesterday just clouds our judgement.
One trick is to imagine the historical chart is just a flat line set at today’s price. When you do that you are forced to only look forward with nothing in your ear trying to trick you into thinking today’s price is cheap. It’s never cheap. It can only ever be the price the market is valuing it at and all you are interested in is the logic of ascertaining whether the market is more likely to value it more tomorrow or less.
I can see the logic in what you say. Having said that some shares have been sold heavily and possibly/probably over sold due to Coronavirus. They should recover well when the situation improves.For me the key is not to ever rush. We brokers give our clients the tools to see everything instantly and to react instantly but the reality is that just because you can very rarely means you should.
I think one of the biggest failings we have as humans is to think that something at 90p today is offering a 10% discount because it was 100p yesterday. The price yesterday is of no relevance to the price today. The price today is simply the price today and any decision must always be based on what is happening today rather than considering anything about yesterday. If someone can make that break from natural human nature then it’s the first major step to being solidly profitable. It’s all about today and what today thinks tomorrow might bring. Yesterday just clouds our judgement.
One trick is to imagine the historical chart is just a flat line set at today’s price. When you do that you are forced to only look forward with nothing in your ear trying to trick you into thinking today’s price is cheap. It’s never cheap. It can only ever be the price the market is valuing it at and all you are interested in is the logic of ascertaining whether the market is more likely to value it more tomorrow or less.
I have cash ready to invest but holding for the moment. Definitely not selling but not brave enough to buy just yet.
bad company said:
I can see the logic in what you say. Having said that some shares have been sold heavily and possibly/probably over sold due to Coronavirus. They should recover well when the situation improves.
I have cash ready to invest but holding for the moment. Definitely not selling but not brave enough to buy just yet.
Yup. That’s a matter of their fundamentals and positive sentiment compared to others. Money is still going in and it will be targeting those core points. I have cash ready to invest but holding for the moment. Definitely not selling but not brave enough to buy just yet.
There will be some stocks which have been much more resilient and I’d be focusing on them if looking to capture a short term recovery or a home for new money. Arguably the stuff that sold off hardest that aren’t directly exposed to the current market driver are the ones which the market was jittery over before the event due to fundamentals or weakening sentiment.
DonkeyApple said:
I think one of the biggest failings we have as humans is to think that something at 90p today is offering a 10% discount because it was 100p yesterday.
Exactly this.I recall buying my first shares in Somerfield, if anyone remembers them, purely because the price had dropped over a couple of days. I got lucky and made over £400 in a week which was a lot for me back then.
I tried the same with M&S and came unstuck!
bad company said:
Another big sell off day.
The trouble with selling in a downturn is that you’re likely to want to buy those shares back in the future. What will the price be then?
I would think that in an event such as this you first split your holdings into two sets defined by whether their sell off is just part of a market rebasing or whether it is because the event itself will manifestly impact their long term prospects. For the former, so long as you are happy with weightings in your portfolio then you may choose not to sell but instead wait to add at a later date when the market is in clear recovery whereas with the latter your reason for investing has now broken and doesn’t exist so you’d close off exposure altogether. The trouble with selling in a downturn is that you’re likely to want to buy those shares back in the future. What will the price be then?
For larger investment portfolios there is also hedging to consider, whether that is short selling an ETF or index to hedge some risk or buying gold.
With this being a global event we also have to consider central government intervention to stabilise the markets and what form this may take and if they do step in will it be to support blue chips and let small caps and emerging markets burn etc.
emicen said:
My funds are down 7% from pre-covid panic stations, my shares more like 16%.
My not so loved bond holdings are up about 5.5% though.
It’s not bitcoin, but I’m hodling
The smart/fortunate few will always have cash sitting on the side to buy quality when these big sell offs appear. It's possible you could see Apple below 200 again. The dogs or zero earnings bubble stocks will get hit twice as hard. My not so loved bond holdings are up about 5.5% though.
It’s not bitcoin, but I’m hodling
Burwood said:
emicen said:
My funds are down 7% from pre-covid panic stations, my shares more like 16%.
My not so loved bond holdings are up about 5.5% though.
It’s not bitcoin, but I’m hodling
The smart/fortunate few will always have cash sitting on the side to buy quality when these big sell offs appear. It's possible you could see Apple below 200 again. The dogs or zero earnings bubble stocks will get hit twice as hard. My not so loved bond holdings are up about 5.5% though.
It’s not bitcoin, but I’m hodling
p1stonhead said:
Burwood said:
emicen said:
My funds are down 7% from pre-covid panic stations, my shares more like 16%.
My not so loved bond holdings are up about 5.5% though.
It’s not bitcoin, but I’m hodling
The smart/fortunate few will always have cash sitting on the side to buy quality when these big sell offs appear. It's possible you could see Apple below 200 again. The dogs or zero earnings bubble stocks will get hit twice as hard. My not so loved bond holdings are up about 5.5% though.
It’s not bitcoin, but I’m hodling
I think the share tip at the moment is don't . It has been since Thursday. My AMD and NVDA shares reduced 4% and hit my 4% reduction rule from max on that day. It stops me getting spanked.
I still have Airbus but they are my long term bet and just keep me interested during the day with all the sheenanigans ( I love airplanes ... it's one of my hobbies)
And lets face it when you have a duopoly and one half is royally borked ...
Some good posts by Donkey Apple over the last few pages ... read them, especially if you have only been doing shares since 2009. Words of wisdom and seeing I was laid off by Tarmac in 1993 due to that recession I guess I am of the same bent. He probably has platinum tinted hair rather than my grey ones though.
Getting back to the present people are arguing over whether this is another dot com bubble or not. That is missing the point , what is the point here is that the markets are finally dealing with a virus that is not mathematically driven ... it is driven by biology. And the market can't cope with that, hence the insane futures market this morning in the US.
Nobody knows how this will play out. Best to just watch and observe. If you have money in the banks then good. Hopefully some bottom feeding
My summary would be never to worry about missing out on some bounce , dead cat or otherwise, but just to instead take less profit after the lowest point, when you are sure that lowest point was.
My second summary would never be too greedy, always play the percentages. There are better things in life than always selling at the high and always buying at the low. Otherwise you will be called Mr Lucky Pants and everyone will hate you down the Cheers bar ...
I still have Airbus but they are my long term bet and just keep me interested during the day with all the sheenanigans ( I love airplanes ... it's one of my hobbies)
And lets face it when you have a duopoly and one half is royally borked ...
Some good posts by Donkey Apple over the last few pages ... read them, especially if you have only been doing shares since 2009. Words of wisdom and seeing I was laid off by Tarmac in 1993 due to that recession I guess I am of the same bent. He probably has platinum tinted hair rather than my grey ones though.
Getting back to the present people are arguing over whether this is another dot com bubble or not. That is missing the point , what is the point here is that the markets are finally dealing with a virus that is not mathematically driven ... it is driven by biology. And the market can't cope with that, hence the insane futures market this morning in the US.
Nobody knows how this will play out. Best to just watch and observe. If you have money in the banks then good. Hopefully some bottom feeding
My summary would be never to worry about missing out on some bounce , dead cat or otherwise, but just to instead take less profit after the lowest point, when you are sure that lowest point was.
My second summary would never be too greedy, always play the percentages. There are better things in life than always selling at the high and always buying at the low. Otherwise you will be called Mr Lucky Pants and everyone will hate you down the Cheers bar ...
Edited by Gandahar on Wednesday 26th February 13:50
DonkeyApple said:
p1stonhead said:
Burwood said:
emicen said:
My funds are down 7% from pre-covid panic stations, my shares more like 16%.
My not so loved bond holdings are up about 5.5% though.
It’s not bitcoin, but I’m hodling
The smart/fortunate few will always have cash sitting on the side to buy quality when these big sell offs appear. It's possible you could see Apple below 200 again. The dogs or zero earnings bubble stocks will get hit twice as hard. My not so loved bond holdings are up about 5.5% though.
It’s not bitcoin, but I’m hodling
" you can buy physical in your own name or open spread bets and then cross over into your wrapper post April 6th"
is half the problem why we are currently at this point in time
Keep it Simple Stupid
KISS
Or KISS Financially Mature ... KISS FM.
Gandahar said:
Having hyped you up I think
" you can buy physical in your own name or open spread bets and then cross over into your wrapper post April 6th"
is half the problem why we are currently at this point in time
Keep it Simple Stupid
KISS
Or KISS Financially Mature ... KISS FM.
" you can buy physical in your own name or open spread bets and then cross over into your wrapper post April 6th"
is half the problem why we are currently at this point in time
Keep it Simple Stupid
KISS
Or KISS Financially Mature ... KISS FM.
Since the end of bed and breakfasting I’ve booked quite a lot of business in March as you can use spreadbets to avoid the issue by selling the physical, buying exposure back as a bet and then closing the bet in the new tax year and re-opening the physical so as to crystallise gains for CGt allowance purposes.
In addition we now see flow in March from customers wanting into positions ahead of being able to fund their ISA.
The problem with spreadbetting is that almost everyone sees it as a gambling product but for savvy investors it’s a very potent and cheap tax management tool.
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