Share tips thread (Vol 2)
Discussion
Curious oilers and miners dropping when the pound has continued to descend and there’s no let up in the tough talk from the US regarding Iran.
At a few percent, not sure I’d call it a dip, more a blip. I’m not looking at buying in any case, happy with my holdings and planning on erm holding them for now.
At a few percent, not sure I’d call it a dip, more a blip. I’m not looking at buying in any case, happy with my holdings and planning on erm holding them for now.
Yes just a minor decrease. Considering I'm up 70% on Genel.
I'm now thinking I may go in again, but also thinking about others like Bushveld, Sirius, Boohoo.
I think ive missed the boat with TERN and Premier Oils tbh.
Ocado I definitely missed the boat, went £1k in on Lindsell Train UK Equity instead and only the fact I'm up 70% on Genel has made me keep some sanity :-)
I'm now thinking I may go in again, but also thinking about others like Bushveld, Sirius, Boohoo.
I think ive missed the boat with TERN and Premier Oils tbh.
Ocado I definitely missed the boat, went £1k in on Lindsell Train UK Equity instead and only the fact I'm up 70% on Genel has made me keep some sanity :-)
Article in Reuters today: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-...
Indeed the drop is small in the scheme of things but I wasn't thinking of the spivvy small oil companies, rather something that is 'guaranteed' to make up the loss quite soon.
I've placed a limit order to buy a few more units of Shell, currently down 3.3%.
This time next year....
Indeed the drop is small in the scheme of things but I wasn't thinking of the spivvy small oil companies, rather something that is 'guaranteed' to make up the loss quite soon.
I've placed a limit order to buy a few more units of Shell, currently down 3.3%.
This time next year....
Oi_Oi_Savaloy said:
I've been a big fan of Plus500 (wary of the owners however but nevertheless - forms a small part of my overall portfolio). Think the update this Tuesday coming is going to be v positive. That's my gut feel - have no inside or indepth knowledge.
So I posted this on 26th April about Plus500. They were at roughly £14.00 or so then. This morning they've just announced their intention to apply to join the FTSE (think they will go into the 250 but someone else can confirm that). Price now is £17.00.
I continue to hold them but moving to the main market does give me greater confidence that governance will improve/transparency etc etc.
Jambo85 said:
Article in Reuters today: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-...
Indeed the drop is small in the scheme of things but I wasn't thinking of the spivvy small oil companies, rather something that is 'guaranteed' to make up the loss quite soon.
I've placed a limit order to buy a few more units of Shell, currently down 3.3%.
This time next year....
Ok so in your opinion then what do you think will happen here? Oil prices keep going down and so my shares in Genel follow suit or buy in more in this dip period as the market will recover?Indeed the drop is small in the scheme of things but I wasn't thinking of the spivvy small oil companies, rather something that is 'guaranteed' to make up the loss quite soon.
I've placed a limit order to buy a few more units of Shell, currently down 3.3%.
This time next year....
From what I can pick up in that article, the US are upping their game to cover any Iran and Ven shortfalls due to politics.
Kingdom35 said:
Ok so in your opinion then what do you think will happen here? Oil prices keep going down and so my shares in Genel follow suit or buy in more in this dip period as the market will recover?
From what I can pick up in that article, the US are upping their game to cover any Iran and Ven shortfalls due to politics.
My view is that oil prices will - overall, with the odd wobble here and there - continue to rise over the next 2-3 years as there has been very little exploration and I don't think US shale can fill the shortfall. And that is before considering politics. From what I can pick up in that article, the US are upping their game to cover any Iran and Ven shortfalls due to politics.
Therefore Shell which is a massive stable production company with revenue tightly linked to oil price and a healthy dividend seems a good bet to me, and picking up a few more at a discount seemed like a wise move.
I am not an expert in Genel but I do know it's quite a different company to Shell... No dividend according to HL, and more of an exploration company with a smaller market cap. Its price will therefore presumably be a function of news flow and investor hysteria; exploration successes; and middle east politics, rather than a more straightforward play on the oil price.... AIUI. Looking at what the price has done since February you'd be nuts not to protect some profit IMO.
My spivvy oil stock is RKH, I sold more than half my holding into the recent 100% rise that seems so far to be based on very little. I expect an opportunity to get back in lower as people get bored and the price drifts down but who knows. I might be about to miss out on the next Tullow oil (but look where that is today...).
Shell is down a bit more today - so with hindsight could have held off a bit...!
But based on my past performance you would do better if you do the opposite of what I do...
Jambo85 said:
My view is that oil prices will - overall, with the odd wobble here and there - continue to rise over the next 2-3 years as there has been very little exploration and I don't think US shale can fill the shortfall. And that is before considering politics.
Therefore Shell which is a massive stable production company with revenue tightly linked to oil price and a healthy dividend seems a good bet to me, and picking up a few more at a discount seemed like a wise move.
I am not an expert in Genel but I do know it's quite a different company to Shell... No dividend according to HL, and more of an exploration company with a smaller market cap. Its price will therefore presumably be a function of news flow and investor hysteria; exploration successes; and middle east politics, rather than a more straightforward play on the oil price.... AIUI. Looking at what the price has done since February you'd be nuts not to protect some profit IMO.
My spivvy oil stock is RKH, I sold more than half my holding into the recent 100% rise that seems so far to be based on very little. I expect an opportunity to get back in lower as people get bored and the price drifts down but who knows. I might be about to miss out on the next Tullow oil (but look where that is today...).
Shell is down a bit more today - so with hindsight could have held off a bit...!
But based on my past performance you would do better if you do the opposite of what I do...
That's a fair point. Tbh I only have about 300 shares in Genel, probably best I just ride this out in the grand scheme of things. I don't need the moment and I'm up still 50%. Therefore Shell which is a massive stable production company with revenue tightly linked to oil price and a healthy dividend seems a good bet to me, and picking up a few more at a discount seemed like a wise move.
I am not an expert in Genel but I do know it's quite a different company to Shell... No dividend according to HL, and more of an exploration company with a smaller market cap. Its price will therefore presumably be a function of news flow and investor hysteria; exploration successes; and middle east politics, rather than a more straightforward play on the oil price.... AIUI. Looking at what the price has done since February you'd be nuts not to protect some profit IMO.
My spivvy oil stock is RKH, I sold more than half my holding into the recent 100% rise that seems so far to be based on very little. I expect an opportunity to get back in lower as people get bored and the price drifts down but who knows. I might be about to miss out on the next Tullow oil (but look where that is today...).
Shell is down a bit more today - so with hindsight could have held off a bit...!
But based on my past performance you would do better if you do the opposite of what I do...
Its hard to tell when to sell, let alone when to buy, part of me thinks buy in now, but then like you've stated, its open to many more factors than a larger company like Shell...which is peaking right now.
I guess this is all part of learning.
Jambo85 said:
My view is that oil prices will - overall, with the odd wobble here and there - continue to rise over the next 2-3 years as there has been very little exploration and I don't think US shale can fill the shortfall. And that is before considering politics.
Therefore Shell which is a massive stable production company with revenue tightly linked to oil price and a healthy dividend seems a good bet to me, and picking up a few more at a discount seemed like a wise move.
I am not an expert in Genel but I do know it's quite a different company to Shell... No dividend according to HL, and more of an exploration company with a smaller market cap. Its price will therefore presumably be a function of news flow and investor hysteria; exploration successes; and middle east politics, rather than a more straightforward play on the oil price.... AIUI. Looking at what the price has done since February you'd be nuts not to protect some profit IMO.
My spivvy oil stock is RKH, I sold more than half my holding into the recent 100% rise that seems so far to be based on very little. I expect an opportunity to get back in lower as people get bored and the price drifts down but who knows. I might be about to miss out on the next Tullow oil (but look where that is today...).
Shell is down a bit more today - so with hindsight could have held off a bit...!
But based on my past performance you would do better if you do the opposite of what I do...
Exploration is basically meaningless in the current oil price. Anything big will take 10 years to develop generally, and since the oil price started dropping around 2014 then any EXP that might have an impact is still a long way from getting sanctioned. In addition exploration is a long way behind replacing the reserves produced per year for a while now, so a change there will not do much. Field development sanctions will have an effect in the future, but the 2 questions are: will shale oil fill in, and will OPEC fill in?Therefore Shell which is a massive stable production company with revenue tightly linked to oil price and a healthy dividend seems a good bet to me, and picking up a few more at a discount seemed like a wise move.
I am not an expert in Genel but I do know it's quite a different company to Shell... No dividend according to HL, and more of an exploration company with a smaller market cap. Its price will therefore presumably be a function of news flow and investor hysteria; exploration successes; and middle east politics, rather than a more straightforward play on the oil price.... AIUI. Looking at what the price has done since February you'd be nuts not to protect some profit IMO.
My spivvy oil stock is RKH, I sold more than half my holding into the recent 100% rise that seems so far to be based on very little. I expect an opportunity to get back in lower as people get bored and the price drifts down but who knows. I might be about to miss out on the next Tullow oil (but look where that is today...).
Shell is down a bit more today - so with hindsight could have held off a bit...!
But based on my past performance you would do better if you do the opposite of what I do...
Shale oil should partly fill in, but there is still the scars from quite a few of them nearly going bankrupt (or doing so). They will likely not go crazy on signing up rigs to fill in "missing" production in case there is another drop. OPEC is currently sticking together well, but you do get the impression they don't want it to go up too much more from what is being said. Short term there could be more fluctuations though.
Big producers should make very good profits going forwards in the next few years, due to cutting costs meaning approved projects are legacy ones (so little CAPEX needed) or ones that pay off in a low cost environment. With time those profits will likely turn into competition in bids for stuff from the service companies, and the profits will drop at the producers, and service companies will benefit.
The oil price in the near future is heavily influenced by political stuff from what I see, rather than the stuff above. Iran, Venezuela and if they cannot produce much volumes/ OPEC decision if they should relax the cuts at some point soon. That to me is pretty impossible to say, so it's more of a gamble. The longer term (several years plus) thing I would suspect is to get into some service companies, as that will be the next sector to climb. The producers are at/near record highs I think, so too late for really big gains there (but still some way to go if the political news is favourable to push up the oil price more).
guindilias said:
MOMO looking great after this morning's ER - I have a CFD on them at 10x leverage. Wish I'd put more in now, they're up 11.17% at the minute in the premarket!
Can you tell us some of your CFD howlers please? You always seem to get it right and it's always after the event! The howler on that one was not putting enough on it!
Other than that, I don't have many - stopped messing with Cryptos ages ago because to me they are just a mystery (apart from a small position in EOS which is supposedly promising).
There's so much information out there on Etoro itself, Zacks, Fool.com, Earning Whispers, that picking a winner is massively in your favour - if you make your own rules and stick to them. For instance I won't put money on anything that isn't rated as a "Strong Buy" by several analysts, and recently - not 3 months ago. And I always trade at x10 leverage.
I did lose the guts of 10k not long ago on AMAT, because I broke my own rules and bought when it was a medium-strong buy, I think I lost on Nvidia, as well.
Otherwise if you stick to the quarterly ER season, and do your research, it goes very well, for me at least. I multiply my annual salary, and the only reason I wouldn't resign and do this full time is because it would be a very dull existence, sitting at home with the laptop. Also the risk that CFDs will eventually be banned here - The USA have banned them along with plenty of other countries, including European ones - if that happened I'd be stuffed!
Other than that, I don't have many - stopped messing with Cryptos ages ago because to me they are just a mystery (apart from a small position in EOS which is supposedly promising).
There's so much information out there on Etoro itself, Zacks, Fool.com, Earning Whispers, that picking a winner is massively in your favour - if you make your own rules and stick to them. For instance I won't put money on anything that isn't rated as a "Strong Buy" by several analysts, and recently - not 3 months ago. And I always trade at x10 leverage.
I did lose the guts of 10k not long ago on AMAT, because I broke my own rules and bought when it was a medium-strong buy, I think I lost on Nvidia, as well.
Otherwise if you stick to the quarterly ER season, and do your research, it goes very well, for me at least. I multiply my annual salary, and the only reason I wouldn't resign and do this full time is because it would be a very dull existence, sitting at home with the laptop. Also the risk that CFDs will eventually be banned here - The USA have banned them along with plenty of other countries, including European ones - if that happened I'd be stuffed!
Oh, I also lost $6k on about 6 seconds last quarter (or the one before) on Facebook - great results for the quarter, but Zuckerberg said that the next quarter was going to be very expensive for the company, in his earnings report. Market opened, shares sank like a stone once the market opened.
Etoro is usually a minute or two behind the market in picking up prices (so maybe 2:32pm, not 2:30) - which was enough for me to see the money circling the drain.
But overall, very positive - don't trust your instincts, trust the professional's research. Nobody could have seen the Queen of Facebook announcing that, and as soon as he did - shares and CFDs dropped WAY down.
Some you win, some you lose!
Etoro is usually a minute or two behind the market in picking up prices (so maybe 2:32pm, not 2:30) - which was enough for me to see the money circling the drain.
But overall, very positive - don't trust your instincts, trust the professional's research. Nobody could have seen the Queen of Facebook announcing that, and as soon as he did - shares and CFDs dropped WAY down.
Some you win, some you lose!
Oh, and Alcoa, a US aluminium and ore producer. Traditionally they are the first "big company" to start the quarterly earnings season.
But no matter how good the report, they always seem to dive straight after their ER. Lost a good bit on them over the years as well - now I just stay clear.
But no matter how good the report, they always seem to dive straight after their ER. Lost a good bit on them over the years as well - now I just stay clear.
Etoro and Earning whisper would be the ones I normally use - just be wary, both of how long ago the analysts gave their opinion (and read their articles justifying it) because things can change dramatically over 3 months - and also how many analysts there are who consider it a strong buy.
If you only have 1 analyst weighing in, who thinks it's a strong buy - that will still show up as 100% of analysts recommending it, and the nice solid green ring that indicates a strong buy.
The more (and more highly rated) analysts the better, and the closer to the date you intend to purchase shares/take out a CFD they have given their opinion the better.
The other sites I mentioned above are also helpful, and I check them as well, but mainly Etoro and Earning Whisper.
Now and again you'll see opinions from one-star analysts who "have an average return of 5% per year, and a 33% success rate." - better off flipping a coin!
If you only have 1 analyst weighing in, who thinks it's a strong buy - that will still show up as 100% of analysts recommending it, and the nice solid green ring that indicates a strong buy.
The more (and more highly rated) analysts the better, and the closer to the date you intend to purchase shares/take out a CFD they have given their opinion the better.
The other sites I mentioned above are also helpful, and I check them as well, but mainly Etoro and Earning Whisper.
Now and again you'll see opinions from one-star analysts who "have an average return of 5% per year, and a 33% success rate." - better off flipping a coin!
guindilias said:
Oh, and Alcoa, a US aluminium and ore producer. Traditionally they are the first "big company" to start the quarterly earnings season.
But no matter how good the report, they always seem to dive straight after their ER. Lost a good bit on them over the years as well - now I just stay clear.
Here's a page of really simple techniques I use to have a look at earning reports, if they are one of the "could go up, could plummet" ones - again, Earning Whisper is the best source of the info you'd be looking for. But no matter how good the report, they always seem to dive straight after their ER. Lost a good bit on them over the years as well - now I just stay clear.
It's far from bulletproof - otherwise why invest in stocks if everyone knows what they are going to do!
But it's a bit of additional help if you are thinking "do I close that position immediately the market opens, or is it going to nose-dive and then spend the day (or the next week, or month) working up to a major profit?"
https://www.wento5.com/interpreting-earnings-repor...
Also human factors - people like to take profit before holiday weekends to give them extra cash, then buy again at the low opening price on Monday (caused by everybody taking profit!)
So much trading is done by computers that you would think it would have no effect - but there are enough "paper in hand" investors out there to influence it.
Same applies for international news - Trump opens his mouth about starting a war, stocks dive and people take refuge in commodities (gold, etc), Kim the short fat leader announces that talks are back on - confidence, and the market as a whole, rises.
Edited by guindilias on Thursday 31st May 19:09
tescorank said:
I like long unbroken lines-don't we all, and just spotted this one 
Yes we do.....Genel seems to be one.TERN I missed the boat on at 10p, after it was given a target price of 10p when at 3p.
Now look at it. A very interesting company iOT.....invested in 7 companies so far this year and the target is 12.....waiting for a dip perhaps then go in. Seems to show some decent ups and downs to skim off some profit
Anyone else looked at it?
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