Share tips thread (Vol 2)

[BobsPigeon]

bhstewie said:

Or put another way we're back where we we were at the start of January this year

And why? I'm afraid IMO (which admittedly isn't of much real value) such a huge disconnect between a companies valuation and their fundemental commercial performance can't possibly be sustained in a rational market. I like tesla, I like Musk, I just can't see how it can't fall back to a more reasonable price.

[bitchstewie]

Gargamel said:

Well indeed, last August it was $400. It wasn’t a comment on Tesla as a company then and it sure a st isn’t now.

It’s been a wild ride for investors, but I think the whole US tech market is overvalued. Just look at the prices on Amazon and Apple now.

Maybe.

Short term trading v long term investing though hence the question about timescales?

[BobsPigeon]

bhstewie said:

Maybe.

Short term trading v long term investing though hence the question about timescales?

It's a common tale, suspect truer than not, that for Tesla to be close to justifying their market cap they'd need to be selling their cars for ~$1million each... In reality they can only charge 1/20 of that. Where as for GM to justify their market cap they need to sell their cars at $9000, in fact they can charge 5 times that.

Long term who should you be investing in?

[vulture1]

Oshkosh

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-postal-serv...

23 minutes before market closes.

Could go big overnight?

[Luke.]

vulture1 said:

Oshkosh

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-postal-serv...

23 minutes before market closes.

Could go big overnight?

Workhorse down 56%.

[egor110]

Luke. said:

vulture1 said:

Oshkosh

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-postal-serv...

23 minutes before market closes.

Could go big overnight?

Workhorse down 56%.

Trouble with workhorse is they were so slow building them , but on the flip side they had actual vans out working with ups .

[Brother D]

egor110 said:

Luke. said:

vulture1 said:

Oshkosh

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-postal-serv...

23 minutes before market closes.

Could go big overnight?

Workhorse down 56%.

Trouble with workhorse is they were so slow building them , but on the flip side they had actual vans out working with ups .

I jumped on these late this afternoon on a recommendation from @squarksquare at $16.43 - looks like finished $15.05 AH.

For those interested my -$15K portfolio loss this morning ended up -$2.4K for the whole portfolio at close help a lot by the purchase of additional $tsla near the bottom.

[ATM]

BobsPigeon said:

bhstewie said:

bad company said:

BobsPigeon said:

Everyone knew Tesla was massively over valued, I suspect a big sell off and it will be undee $500 by this time next month... That's not a reflection of the company, I think they've got a real chance, the model 2 looks great, but the market cap was/is in lala land.

Tesla and Bitcoin both likely to head South imo but then I’ve been wrong lots of times.

On what timescale though?

You are here




Quite literally

I think there are a few EV companies now snapping at Tesla's heals. I think the whole US stock market is over valued and once the Fed start to talk about changing what they're doing it will all come crashing down. US stock price are much higher now than they were a year ago which only makes sense if it's based on all the stimulus money and cheap borrowing. If the stimulus money has reached its peak then the amount of stimulus will start to fall and therefore if the market prices are propped up by the stimulus then the market top is in and from here it can only be downward trajectory. That's my rational. I'm telling anyone who will listen to close all equity positions and move to bonds or short equities - depending on your risk appetite.

[p1stonhead]

ATM said:

BobsPigeon said:

bhstewie said:

bad company said:

BobsPigeon said:

Everyone knew Tesla was massively over valued, I suspect a big sell off and it will be undee $500 by this time next month... That's not a reflection of the company, I think they've got a real chance, the model 2 looks great, but the market cap was/is in lala land.

Tesla and Bitcoin both likely to head South imo but then I’ve been wrong lots of times.

On what timescale though?

You are here




Quite literally

I think there are a few EV companies now snapping at Tesla's heals. I think the whole US stock market is over valued and once the Fed start to talk about changing what they're doing it will all come crashing down. US stock price are much higher now than they were a year ago which only makes sense if it's based on all the stimulus money and cheap borrowing. If the stimulus money has reached its peak then the amount of stimulus will start to fall and therefore if the market prices are propped up by the stimulus then the market top is in and from here it can only be downward trajectory. That's my rational. I'm telling anyone who will listen to close all equity positions and move to bonds or short equities - depending on your risk appetite.

Tesla have had a long unchallenged run.

It’s coming to an end.

They’ll be a player for a while yet, but ultimately won’t be able to compete. That’s my opinion.

They’ve literally been the only non-st electric car for ages. That’s why they’ve done so well. But a LOT are now coming out.

Who in their right mind for example would get a £100k model S over a Taycan?

[K12beano]

p1stonhead said:

Who in their right mind for example would get a £100k model S over a Taycan?

Whilst everything you say is true, for a moment there I feared you were underestimating the stupidity of the masses...... ( )

[p1stonhead]

K12beano said:

p1stonhead said:

Who in their right mind for example would get a £100k model S over a Taycan?

Whilst everything you say is true, for a moment there I feared you were underestimating the stupidity of the masses...... ( )

Honestly though the model s ‘mental’ version or whatever it’s called is £140k I think? For a car with the interior quality of a Ford Focus all told.

When they were the only choice the ‘price was the price’ take it or leave it.

But vs a beautifully trimmed practically zero running cost lightning quick Porsche it’s an utterly stupid proposition.

Yet Tesla are worth more than nearly every car maker combined.

It’s a meme stock based around their ‘he’s sort of like one of us’ (even though he couldn’t be further away in reality) rock star type billionaire CEO.

[Yidwann]

I would agree, but Tesla has become such a cult people will still buy them!

[ATM]

p1stonhead said:

K12beano said:

p1stonhead said:

Who in their right mind for example would get a £100k model S over a Taycan?

Whilst everything you say is true, for a moment there I feared you were underestimating the stupidity of the masses...... ( )

Honestly though the model s ‘mental’ version or whatever it’s called is £140k I think? For a car with the interior quality of a Ford Focus all told.

When they were the only choice the ‘price was the price’ take it or leave it.

But vs a beautifully trimmed practically zero running cost lightning quick Porsche it’s an utterly stupid proposition.

Yet Tesla are worth more than nearly every car maker combined.

It’s a meme stock based around their ‘he’s sort of like one of us’ (even though he couldn’t be further away in reality) rock star type billionaire CEO.

All things come to an end and all bubbles eventually pop. I'd like to see Tesla rise again so I can short it again. Arguably 71000 is still a good entry because we hit 62000 yesterday. I think 62000 again from here looks more likely than 80000 in the medium term and then longer term something like 20000 maybe. It depends if they can get their small cheap car out the door. It has disappeared from their website according to YouTube.

[anonymous-user]

Yidwann said:

I would agree, but Tesla has become such a cult people will still buy them!

Until they dont, then bang.

[anonymous-user]

ATM said:

I think there are a few EV companies now snapping at Tesla's heals. I think the whole US stock market is over valued and once the Fed start to talk about changing what they're doing it will all come crashing down. US stock price are much higher now than they were a year ago which only makes sense if it's based on all the stimulus money and cheap borrowing. If the stimulus money has reached its peak then the amount of stimulus will start to fall and therefore if the market prices are propped up by the stimulus then the market top is in and from here it can only be downward trajectory. That's my rational. I'm telling anyone who will listen to close all equity positions and move to bonds or short equities - depending on your risk appetite.

Most equities are based on some form of reality, there are plenty of stocks including tech that are based on sound business valuations with companies that make real cash profits.

We are only just at the start of the government support money, especially in the USA IMHO.

The trick is making sure you are in genuine value stocks unless you are very savy with the bubble riders like tesla, stock like that are far more like gambling.

Of course if the entire market fails, even the good stuff tanks, but cash isnt imune from the fallout if that persists. It's all about balance.

[DoubleSix]

BobsPigeon said:

You are here




Quite literally

FWIW - you could crop that chart to Q2 2020 and it would look the same.



I’m not a bull on TSLA, but the above observations re the chart are overly simplistic.

[g4ry13]

K12beano said:

p1stonhead said:

Who in their right mind for example would get a £100k model S over a Taycan?

Whilst everything you say is true, for a moment there I feared you were underestimating the stupidity of the masses...... ( )

The Plaid+ performance specs are pretty crazy (if they're achievable).

I'm not aware of many cars that can get near it for that price.

Comparing the Taycan Turbo S to Plaid+

Top speed: 162 vs 200
0-60: 2.8 seconds vs 1.99
Range: 288 miles vs 520+ (estimated)
Power: 751hp vs 1100+
Price: From £138k vs £131k

The Plaid+ trounces the Porsche in terms of performance specs if they can get anywhere near them in the real world. Saying that, the reality is one won't be able to enjoy the performance benefits unless it's taken on an autobahn.

[p1stonhead]

g4ry13 said:

K12beano said:

p1stonhead said:

Who in their right mind for example would get a £100k model S over a Taycan?

Whilst everything you say is true, for a moment there I feared you were underestimating the stupidity of the masses...... ( )

The Plaid+ performance specs are pretty crazy (if they're achievable).

I'm not aware of many cars that can get near it for that price.

Comparing the Taycan Turbo S to Plaid+

Top speed: 162 vs 200
0-60: 2.8 seconds vs 1.99
Range: 288 miles vs 520+ (estimated)
Power: 751hp vs 1100+
Price: From £138k vs £131k

The Plaid+ trounces the Porsche in terms of performance specs if they can get anywhere near them in the real world. Saying that, the reality is one won't be able to enjoy the performance benefits unless it's taken on an autobahn.

So the Tesla is a bit quicker and has a longer range. But looks st inside and out.

And the other is a Porsche.

Taycan for me please!

No one spending £140k on a car is without another one that can do the 500 mile journey if they really need to. Those journeys must be exceptionally rare though.

I don’t remember the last time I did more than 250+ miles without a stop.

[g4ry13]

p1stonhead said:

g4ry13 said:

K12beano said:

p1stonhead said:

Who in their right mind for example would get a £100k model S over a Taycan?

Whilst everything you say is true, for a moment there I feared you were underestimating the stupidity of the masses...... ( )

The Plaid+ performance specs are pretty crazy (if they're achievable).

I'm not aware of many cars that can get near it for that price.

Comparing the Taycan Turbo S to Plaid+

Top speed: 162 vs 200
0-60: 2.8 seconds vs 1.99
Range: 288 miles vs 520+ (estimated)
Power: 751hp vs 1100+
Price: From £138k vs £131k

The Plaid+ trounces the Porsche in terms of performance specs if they can get anywhere near them in the real world. Saying that, the reality is one won't be able to enjoy the performance benefits unless it's taken on an autobahn.

So the Tesla is a bit quicker and has a longer range. But looks st inside and out.

And the other is a Porsche.

Taycan for me please!

No one spending £140k on a car is without another one that can do the 500 mile journey if they really need to. Those journeys must be exceptionally rare though.

I don’t remember the last time I did more than 250+ miles without a stop.

That's your opinion. But what comes close to those performance specs anywhere near that price? The Challenger Demon if you can actually get the power down, a stripped out track car or then we're into Bugatti money.

I'm not going to turn this into a car thread as this is the Share Tips thread but a lot of people consider the Tesla brand "fun", "cool" and "wacky" and would equally pick it over a Porsche. That's what has kept Tesla the leader of the EV market and the brand which all the other car manufacturers look at and attempt to replicate.

[p1stonhead]

g4ry13 said:

p1stonhead said:

g4ry13 said:

K12beano said:

p1stonhead said:

Who in their right mind for example would get a £100k model S over a Taycan?

Whilst everything you say is true, for a moment there I feared you were underestimating the stupidity of the masses...... ( )

The Plaid+ performance specs are pretty crazy (if they're achievable).

I'm not aware of many cars that can get near it for that price.

Comparing the Taycan Turbo S to Plaid+

Top speed: 162 vs 200
0-60: 2.8 seconds vs 1.99
Range: 288 miles vs 520+ (estimated)
Power: 751hp vs 1100+
Price: From £138k vs £131k

The Plaid+ trounces the Porsche in terms of performance specs if they can get anywhere near them in the real world. Saying that, the reality is one won't be able to enjoy the performance benefits unless it's taken on an autobahn.

So the Tesla is a bit quicker and has a longer range. But looks st inside and out.

And the other is a Porsche.

Taycan for me please!

No one spending £140k on a car is without another one that can do the 500 mile journey if they really need to. Those journeys must be exceptionally rare though.

I don’t remember the last time I did more than 250+ miles without a stop.

That's your opinion. But what comes close to those performance specs anywhere near that price? The Challenger Demon if you can actually get the power down, a stripped out track car or then we're into Bugatti money.

I'm not going to turn this into a car thread as this is the Share Tips thread but a lot of people consider the Tesla brand "fun", "cool" and "wacky" and would equally pick it over a Porsche. That's what has kept Tesla the leader of the EV market and the brand which all the other car manufacturers look at and attempt to replicate.

Well 2.8 vs 1.99...

Unless you are Lewis Hamilton launching once the lights go out at an F1 race, that’s effectively identical.

So the Taycan has the same performance.