Share tips thread (Vol 2)

[vulture1]

Skyedriver said:

Anyone any thoughts on National Grid (NG.)?
Have held for a number of years for the divi, the SP seems to vary between high 800's and high 900's and is currently at the lower end of the range.
I have some Aveva shares which aren't doing much either in price or divi and I'm thinking of moving the money over to NG.
Thanks

I looked at them a while ago. great income share if you are old and retired.

But they have so many limitations on profit and regualtions I couldn't see much capital growth.

[Skyedriver]

I'm old and retired.....

[bad company]

Skyedriver said:

I'm old and retired.....

Me too and I’ll be holding onto my NG shares.

[Skyedriver]

bad company said:

Skyedriver said:

I'm old and retired.....

Me too and I’ll be holding onto my NG shares.

Yes, wondering whether to add.

[Burwood]

Skyedriver said:

bad company said:

Skyedriver said:

I'm old and retired.....

Me too and I’ll be holding onto my NG shares.

Yes, wondering whether to add.

NG got hit when Corbyn talked up nationalising and never fully recovered. I guess it’s still a threat.

[Skyedriver]

Burwood said:

Skyedriver said:

bad company said:

Skyedriver said:

I'm old and retired.....

Me too and I’ll be holding onto my NG shares.

Yes, wondering whether to add.

NG got hit when Corbyn talked up nationalising and never fully recovered. I guess it’s still a threat.

I know there has been a few problems for them in the US too.

[elanfan]

Take a look at IP Group (IPO). They launch and nurture new businesses. They helped form Oxford Nanoprene Technology now worth over £3.4Bn in 2005 and still hold 10%.

I’m in.

[naturals]

elanfan said:

Take a look at IP Group (IPO). They launch and nurture new businesses. They helped form Oxford Nanoprene Technology now worth over £3.4Bn in 2005 and still hold 10%.

I’m in.

I've held IPO for a while. Very happy with the performance and I think when they update their NAV to reflect the 40%+ gain ONT has had today, there should be a nice upward bump to their own share price.

[classicfred]

Thungela (TGA) has risen 100% in 3 months - produce thermal coal.
Not sure if it has reached the top now but who knows ? DYOR.

[FWIW]

marknemo said:

Does anyone know whats sparked the increase in Norwegian Air Shuttle shares? I bought some early last week and they have increased significantly since - totally lucky on my part as I was just testing the water really as they are the first shares I have bought.

Post resurrection!

Anyone [still] in NAS? I'm having a little dabble...

[bad company]

Sirius Real Estate and Tat & Lyle tipped in this weeks Investors Chronicle, I’m holding both for the yield.

[Bernie_78]

Anyone bought into Rivian?

[Tuna]

Bernie_78 said:

Anyone bought into Rivian?

Thought about it, but it's already priced for success - sentiment might take it higher, but the value isn't there (yet).

[Burwood]

Tuna said:

Bernie_78 said:

Anyone bought into Rivian?

Thought about it, but it's already priced for success - sentiment might take it higher, but the value isn't there (yet).

Had a nibble on the range which it's bound to follow for a few days. No guarantees though. The greater fool theory at play

Prior to the IPO they had zero net assets, actually negative 2B, no income and a cash burn of 300M a quarter. Yep, it's worth 100b all day long LOL I doubt they will ever make money. The founders and legacy investors will get rich though

[Tuna]

Burwood said:

Had a nibble on the range which it's bound to follow for a few days. No guarantees though. The greater fool theory at play

Prior to the IPO they had zero net assets, actually negative 2B, no income and a cash burn of 300M a quarter. Yep, it's worth 100b all day long LOL I doubt they will ever make money. The founders and legacy investors will get rich though

Actually, I'm fairly bullish on their future - they have a "bread and butter" customer in Amazon, which will pay for a lot of their build out. They have significant industry investors and I believe some tech sharing with Ford. They're pretty tightly focussed on an area that few other EV manufacturers are paying attention to. If you want to be a woo-futurist, you could say that personal car usage is going to continue to decline over the next decade, but domestic deliveries are going to rocket, so they're in the right area.

Their business plan is not dramatically ambitious - Tesla has already grown significantly better than the growth path they're aiming for, and they're taking a lot of lessons from how that worked out. If you looked at Tesla at the same point in their growth, negative assets and high cash burn were pretty much baked in with significantly more risk.

So... I think they can make it. They've got a solid product, real customers and backers in for the long haul.

However, I also think the shares are priced as though they had already got there (as are Tesla's). There's no additional value to be realised at this point and no discount for risk.

[Burwood]

Tuna said:

Burwood said:

Had a nibble on the range which it's bound to follow for a few days. No guarantees though. The greater fool theory at play

Prior to the IPO they had zero net assets, actually negative 2B, no income and a cash burn of 300M a quarter. Yep, it's worth 100b all day long LOL I doubt they will ever make money. The founders and legacy investors will get rich though

Actually, I'm fairly bullish on their future - they have a "bread and butter" customer in Amazon, which will pay for a lot of their build out. They have significant industry investors and I believe some tech sharing with Ford. They're pretty tightly focussed on an area that few other EV manufacturers are paying attention to. If you want to be a woo-futurist, you could say that personal car usage is going to continue to decline over the next decade, but domestic deliveries are going to rocket, so they're in the right area.

Their business plan is not dramatically ambitious - Tesla has already grown significantly better than the growth path they're aiming for, and they're taking a lot of lessons from how that worked out. If you looked at Tesla at the same point in their growth, negative assets and high cash burn were pretty much baked in with significantly more risk.


So... I think they can make it. They've got a solid product, real customers and backers in for the long haul.

However, I also think the shares are priced as though they had already got there (as are Tesla's). There's no additional value to be realised at this point and no discount for risk.

My point being 100k orders is nothing. A product in a lab and a 100b valuation. Over done? It's a flip trade not an investment for me. Others are happy to disagree.

[Tuna]

Burwood said:

My point being 100k orders is nothing. A product in a lab and a 100b valuation. Over done? It's a flip trade not an investment for me. Others are happy to disagree.

Not disagreeing - though 100K sales was seen as a huge vindication of Tesla and took them seven years to achieve.

[Bernie_78]

First reviews of their product seem a lot better than model 3, but they don't have the charging infrastructure Tesla have in place (if that matters so much anymore).

I got into Tesla in double figures (absolute fluke) and seeing Rivian already being above that does feel like a bit of post IPO excitement needs to die down. Lucid doubled last week as well.

[g4ry13]

Bernie_78 said:

First reviews of their product seem a lot better than model 3, but they don't have the charging infrastructure Tesla have in place (if that matters so much anymore).

I got into Tesla in double figures (absolute fluke) and seeing Rivian already being above thatdoes feel like a bit of post IPO excitement needs to die down. Lucid doubled last week as well.

It's not about share price. The market cap is the important bit.

Rivian is valued as a $113bn company. To put that into perspective: Ford is valued at just under $77bn!

When you compare their valuation to Ford or GM it's absolute bonkers.

[Tuna]

g4ry13 said:

It's not about share price. The market cap is the important bit.

Rivian is valued as a $113bn company. To put that into perspective: Ford is valued at just under $77bn!

When you compare their valuation to Ford or GM it's absolute bonkers.

The problem is that Tesla has "reset expectations" for the EV space - with claims that if you're EV you're not just a car company. The new entrants are being compared to Tesla (who have a small overall market share of the automotive space) rather than Ford or Toyota (who sell orders of magnitude more cars).

I can't see it ending well, but what do I know? The biggest issue I have with Polestar is that their plans (and cars) are relatively pedestrian. I can happily believe they're going to build a solid line up with solid sales - but that doesn't justify a mad valuation. The only thing that makes me pay attention is that as part of the Geely group the SUV plans and future tech are likely to be shared with Lotus...